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Thread: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

  1. #31
    Newbie Rock of Truth's Avatar
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    Smart move by Walt if you ask me. If the market is cooling on Guerrero, let the price drop. It's like buying a car, you can't be afraid to walk away from the dealership.

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  3. #32
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    Here is an interesting take on the Chapman acquisition I found on a yankee fan site from 2010:

    In a recent piece on MLB.com, Mark Sheldon has a recap of how the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes went down, with some interesting notes on why the Yanks passed on the 21 year old Cuban fireballer. He writes:

    Once Chapman was declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, speculation was that the 21-year-old’s asking price might make big-market, deep-pocketed clubs favorites to acquire Chapman. But that proved to be a wrong assumption.

    Many teams, such as the Red Sox and Yankees, were indicating to Hendricks they viewed Chapman as mostly a luxury. Boston, which had recently signed free agent John Lackey, already had a stocked pitching staff. So did the Yankees. Clubs like these viewed Chapman as part of their big league plans — in 2011 or ’12.

    The Reds presented themselves as a younger club that could provide a chance for Chapman to pitch in the Majors in 2010.

    “So here’s the metaphor I used when teams expressed concern this would be for just the highest bidder, like New York or Boston,” Hendricks said. “‘If I had a great first baseman from Cuba, do you think I’d call the St. Louis Cardinals first?’ We wanted opportunity. We would like to put him in a system where he’d have an opportunity to emerge sooner.”

    So often we assume these deals will come down only to financial considerations, yet as that last quote clearly shows playing time and hope of cracking the starting rotation was a major consideration as well. While Chapman did go to the highest bidder in terms of total dollars, the money is to be paid out over a term of 10 years, so between inflation and currency devaluation an offer of 23-25 mil from another team could have been worth more. There were reports that the Blue Jays and Angels were in that price range. You can easily speculate how this deal went down. Hendricks probably asked the Reds to match the dollars and term of the Jays/Angels offers, telling them he would prefer to go there. When the Reds balked, the two sides hammered out a long deal that spread out the financial impact on the club.

    I don’t disagree at all with either the Red Sox or Yanks assessment of Chapman’s future in respect to each of their teams. The reality is he’d have a very hard time cracking the Red Sox rotation, and an even tougher time cracking the Yankee staff in the coming years. As things stand right now, the Yanks have one spot for two pitchers in Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, both of whom are much further along in terms of development than Chapman is. If either Andy Pettitte retires or Javier Vasquez leaves, you still wouldn’t have room on the 2011 team for Chapman, and that assumes that he’s ready to contribute, which is a big assumption. If he was more willing to work out of the bullpen, then the entire equation changes. But Chapman said from Day 1 that he wanted to start, and given how far off he is I never thought it really added up for the Yankees. I wish him well, and it will still be an exciting day when he makes his first big league start for the Reds.
    - See more at: http://www.theyankeeu.com/tag/aroldi....WLyaMeEF.dpuf
    Seems like a bit of a perfect storm that brought Chapman here, and although it's speculation from 2010, it was in large part because Chapman wanted a place to start - and soon.

    Is Guererro a similar situation? Not at all really. He's blocked, he's 26, and teams are backing off him.

    As much as I'd like to see a young infusion to our infield, I don't know if he has enough to start everyday in mlb. The Reds and others have had every chance to look him over according to reports. With Chapman it was simple: 21, lefthanded, easy 100 mph, built like a stallion.
    Last edited by mdccclxix; 10-15-2013 at 10:15 AM.

  4. #33
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    If the Reds don't feel Guerrero will be an above average 2b or 3b by 2015, then there's no point in handing him a multiyear deal worth 30+ million.
    That money could be better spent elsewhere.

    I remember after Nomo made it big here, there was somewhat of a "Gold Rush" for Japaneese players. We have to be careful about the Cubans as well. Chapman and Puig were big stars, but we don't want to sign the Cuban Irabu that is certain to come out at some point.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  6. #34
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    I think Guerrero answers a need for this team. We need hitters. Scouts say he is a 2B, but why not keep him at SS? I think Cozart's strong second half is clouding our memories of him. Guerrero is a .300+ hitter with power and a righty bat. Everything we have been looking for. I would easily take a slight hit on defense for a high potential upgrade on offense.

    The rumor was that he was offered 6 years for $32M which is about $5M a year. By comparison, in the NL, only one SS hit .300 with 20+ HR and that was Tulo. He got $10M this year and likely will get around $16M next year. I know we cannot expect Guerrero to perform like that right away, but for his stats, I would say $5M is worth it.
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    If the Reds don't feel Guerrero will be an above average 2b or 3b by 2015, then there's no point in handing him a multiyear deal worth 30+ million.
    That money could be better spent elsewhere.

    I remember after Nomo made it big here, there was somewhat of a "Gold Rush" for Japaneese players. We have to be careful about the Cubans as well. Chapman and Puig were big stars, but we don't want to sign the Cuban Irabu that is certain to come out at some point.
    The Reds signed Chapman IMO because as a mid-market team they couldn't handle top MLB free agent contracts. So the next best thing was a top talent Cuban player, who was unproven in MLB and therefore cheaper (at the time).

    If Guerrero is considered by the Reds to be a top talent, the will try to sign him because he still will be cheaper than a similar talent, proven, in MLB free agency.

    If the "discount" to MLB free agency is gone because he becomes too expensive, they won't do it.

    I think it's strictly a business calculation by a team trying to get top talent without paying at the high level of MLB free agency.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-15-2013 at 10:39 AM.

  8. #36
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    If Guerrero is considered by the Reds to be a top talent, the will try to sign him because he still will be cheaper than a similar talent, proven, in MLB free agency.

    If the "discount" to MLB free agency is gone because he becomes too expensive, they won't do it.

    I think it's strictly a business calculation by a team trying to get top talent without paying at the high level of MLB free agency.
    Agreed. Like my previous post stated, Guerrero's Cuban numbers are similar to Tulo and we could sign him for nearly 1/2 or even 1/3 of what Tulo costs. Of course, that is based on the Dodgers' rumored deal. Guerrero now has Boras so who knows what his price will be. My thought is that a lot of teams are actually interested in Abreu so his price might have an effect on Guerrero's.
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    Agreed. Like my previous post stated, Guerrero's Cuban numbers are similar to Tulo and we could sign him for nearly 1/2 or even 1/3 of what Tulo costs. Of course, that is based on the Dodgers' rumored deal. Guerrero now has Boras so who knows what his price will be. My thought is that a lot of teams are actually interested in Abreu so his price might have an effect on Guerrero's.
    Yeah, and the Reds probably are motivated to pay a tad more than some because the Reds aren't players for the big free agent stars. So the savings for a guy like this, even paying a tad more, is more important to Cincy.

  10. #38
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Yeah, and the Reds probably are motivated to pay a tad more than some because the Reds aren't players for the big free agent stars. So the savings for a guy like this, even paying a tad more, is more important to Cincy.
    Definitely, then you could have Cozart fill the Izturis role too. I think a priority this year too should be to find supersubs like we had in 2010. I think a move like signing Guerrero is a good way to fill both a weakness in the field and add to the bench with Cozart now being a part of it. Maybe he could give Frazier and BP days off too if they are hurting or slumping.
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    Quote Originally Posted by nate1213 View Post
    I searched it, but couldn't find it. But I believe I remembered seeing the Reds rumored to be in on Chapman a few days before he signed, and Jocketty said something of this tone. I wouldn't put this as 100% certain we aren't going to go after him.
    IDK, We scouted him extensively and had a lot of discussions, but I dont believe anything will happen. sounds to me like they're just not that into him.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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  13. #40
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    IDK, We scouted him extensively and had a lot of discussions, but I dont believe anything will happen. sounds to me like they're just not that into him.
    Jocketty on Dusty Baker:

    Asked if there was any question about Baker returning, Jocketty said: I dont think so, Jocketty said. Hes signed for another year.
    Goes to show how reliable his word to the media is. I think it is a ploy for other teams to question their scouting and ultimately lower the price.
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    Goes to show how reliable his word to the media is. I think it is a ploy for other teams to question their scouting and ultimately lower the price.
    You may be right. I'm not basing my take on the fact that he denied interest but on the phrasing of the denial. And that take is, admittedly, impressionistic.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    I think Guerrero answers a need for this team. We need hitters. Scouts say he is a 2B, but why not keep him at SS? I think Cozart's strong second half is clouding our memories of him. Guerrero is a .300+ hitter with power and a righty bat. Everything we have been looking for. I would easily take a slight hit on defense for a high potential upgrade on offense.

    The rumor was that he was offered 6 years for $32M which is about $5M a year. By comparison, in the NL, only one SS hit .300 with 20+ HR and that was Tulo. He got $10M this year and likely will get around $16M next year. I know we cannot expect Guerrero to perform like that right away, but for his stats, I would say $5M is worth it.
    I am nearly certain the Reds can win in 2014 with Cozart playing SS and batting seventh or eighth. I am not at all certain that the Reds can win in 2014 with BP playing second and batting second or fourth.

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  17. #43
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    If Guerrero is considered by the Reds to be a top talent, the will try to sign him because he still will be cheaper than a similar talent, proven, in MLB free agency.

    .
    Yep, I agree. The big thing is "IF the Reds consider Guerrero a top talent".

    Thankfully, the Reds aren't in a position where 3b or 2b are gaping holes and they have to make a move to improve right now.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  18. #44
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Here is an interesting take on the Chapman acquisition I found on a yankee fan site from 2010:



    Seems like a bit of a perfect storm that brought Chapman here, and although it's speculation from 2010, it was in large part because Chapman wanted a place to start - and soon.
    How did that turn out, anyway?

  19. #45
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    Re: Reds still in on Alexander Guerrero !

    If he can play SS or 2nd base he sure as heck can play 3rd base. Johnny Bench played 3rd base later in his career to keep his bat in the line-up. We need bats, we need guys that put the ball in play. Trade Frazier or platoon him in left and release Heisey. When Guerrero needs a blow Frazier can play 3rd. When BP needs a blow Guerrero can play 2nd.... this solves a lot of problems.
    Not this year...maybe a Wild Card


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