toledodan (09-19-2013)
I hate bunts. I hate them so much.
What just happened is borderline malpractice. Dusty just tried to bunt with a guy who has a 1.030 OPS vs RHP.
Razor Shines (09-19-2013),RedEye (09-19-2013),Wonderful Monds (09-19-2013)
I'm not the biggest fan of the bunt but don't mind it as much if I knew the team could bunt and was a smart base running team.
mth123 (09-18-2013),Revering4Blue (09-19-2013)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/so...php?cid=975409
Basically shows that the bunt in that situation decreases overall runs expected, but increases odds of 1 run.
Of course, doesn't take into account the fact that the pitcher was allergic to the strike zone, but also doesn't take into account that Bruce is a much better hitter against righties than Phillips.
Either situation was good, except for Phillips making a bad play.
Edd Roush (09-19-2013),Norm Chortleton (09-18-2013),Revering4Blue (09-19-2013)
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
RiverRat13 (09-18-2013)
The Reds had a 64.3% chance of scoring with 1st & 2nd and none out.
A successful sacrifice in that situation would have increased their chances to 69.8%. A strikeout or non-productive out would decrease their chances to 42.9%. A double play would decrease it to 27%
A base hit in that situation would score a run. Problem is, you are only going to get a base hit with Phillips about one quarter of the time.
This shouldn't even be a discussion. The percentages are pretty much a slam dunk.
http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
BP's bunt
The likliehood of scoring one run with men on 1B and 2B and no outs is .643. The likliehood of scoring with men on 2B and 3B with one out is .698. Meanwhile, the average number of runs scored in the two scenarios falls from 1.56 to 1.45. Hardly a no brainer, especially when you have THE FASTEST MAN IN BASEBALL on second, a great runner on first, and a terrible bunting team.
Choo's attempted bunt
Again, you have THE FASTEST MAN IN BASEBALL on 2B with no outs. The likliehood of him scoring goes from .64 to .67, but the run expectancy for the inning falls from 1.17 to .98.
All of these numbers, again, assume that a successful bunt takes place.
Can't see how these percentages make either one "absolutely the right call."
Razor Shines (09-19-2013)
Razor Shines (09-19-2013)
jimbo (09-19-2013)
The odds of a hit = 25%
The odds of an out = 75%
You're only gaining 5% points but you have a 75% chance of losing significant percentage points if you don't bunt.
So yeah, I'd rather play the 3/4 odds of gaining 5 percentage points than the 3/4 of losing 25+ points
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
increasing your chances by 5% is a slam dunk when you've
1) got the fastest runner ever on second
2) got a pitcher who can't throw a strike to save his life
3) got a better chance to score more runs if you don't bunt
???
Hardly.
Also, I don't see your point about strikeouts and "non-productive" outs. Of course the percentages don't increase with those, but a bunt GUARANTEES that there will be one out unless the Astros decide to play Keystone Cops again.
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |