Buntapalooza has to stop

[RiverRat13]

No seriously the complaining about the bunting needs to stop.

The percentages of the Reds scoring a run would go up drastically by bunting in those situations. We have ample evidence of that. One only needs to look at a run matrix and the discussion is over as to what the smart move is.

There is absolutely no justification for complaining about bunting in that situation. None whatsoever. The percentages say it's absolutely the right move.

I don't mind the bunt there. I just ask that you make the guy who just threw nine straight nowhere near the zone throw a strike before you do it.

[Homer Bailey]

I hate bunts. I hate them so much.

What just happened is borderline malpractice. Dusty just tried to bunt with a guy who has a 1.030 OPS vs RHP.

[R_Webb18]

I'm not the biggest fan of the bunt but don't mind it as much if I knew the team could bunt and was a smart base running team.

[kaldaniels]

When you look at the run matrix, the best case for bunting makes it equal to other options at about .30. Factor in the chance that the bunt may not get executed correctly, and it makes no sense to bunt. It's a lose-lose.

Does (whatever you are talking about ) factor in the odds of a DP, if so, how?

[scott91575]

When you look at the run matrix, the best case for bunting makes it equal to other options at about .30. Factor in the chance that the bunt may not get executed correctly, and it makes no sense to bunt. It's a lose-lose.

0.3? Where are you getting 0.3?

[Patrick Bateman]

Could you please post the percentages? I can't just take that claim at face value. We've been round this before, and I wasn't convinced then, most likely because it wasn't actually true. When you factor in the notion that the player has to actually execute a bunt to make bunting an equal proposition to swinging away, it makes no sense. You are giving away an out AND taking the chance that something else will screw up. Which is EXACTLY what happened with BP.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/so...php?cid=975409

Basically shows that the bunt in that situation decreases overall runs expected, but increases odds of 1 run.

Of course, doesn't take into account the fact that the pitcher was allergic to the strike zone, but also doesn't take into account that Bruce is a much better hitter against righties than Phillips.

Either situation was good, except for Phillips making a bad play.

[mth123]

I'm not the biggest fan of the bunt but don't mind it as much if I knew the team could bunt and was a smart base running team.

I think this is a really valid point. It's really too bad. This team can pitch, field and hit at a championship level, but complete lack of brains coupled with some poor fundamental skills have really undermined all of that.

[Patrick Bateman]

I hate bunts. I hate them so much.

What just happened is borderline malpractice. Dusty just tried to bunt with a guy who has a 1.030 OPS vs RHP.

Agreed, bunting with Choo pretty silly there. Let Hamilton steal second, then you have 3 good cracks at knocking him in with quality hitters. Phillips one a different situation in my mind.

[Brutus]

The Reds had a 64.3% chance of scoring with 1st & 2nd and none out.

A successful sacrifice in that situation would have increased their chances to 69.8%. A strikeout or non-productive out would decrease their chances to 42.9%. A double play would decrease it to 27%

A base hit in that situation would score a run. Problem is, you are only going to get a base hit with Phillips about one quarter of the time.

This shouldn't even be a discussion. The percentages are pretty much a slam dunk.

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

[RedEye]

BP's bunt

The likliehood of scoring one run with men on 1B and 2B and no outs is .643. The likliehood of scoring with men on 2B and 3B with one out is .698. Meanwhile, the average number of runs scored in the two scenarios falls from 1.56 to 1.45. Hardly a no brainer, especially when you have THE FASTEST MAN IN BASEBALL on second, a great runner on first, and a terrible bunting team.

Choo's attempted bunt

Again, you have THE FASTEST MAN IN BASEBALL on 2B with no outs. The likliehood of him scoring goes from .64 to .67, but the run expectancy for the inning falls from 1.17 to .98.

All of these numbers, again, assume that a successful bunt takes place.

Can't see how these percentages make either one "absolutely the right call."

[Homer Bailey]

The Reds had a 64.3% chance of scoring with 1st & 2nd and none out.

A successful sacrifice in that situation would have increased their chances to 69.8%. A strikeout or non-productive out would decrease their chances to 42.9%. A double play would decrease it to 27%

A base hit in that situation would score a run. Problem is, you are only going to get a base hit with Phillips about one quarter of the time.

This shouldn't even be a discussion. The percentages are pretty much a slam dunk.

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

So you'd risk lowering your expectancy percentage by over 20 points, to gain 5 percentage points? How is that an open and shut case!?

[kaldaniels]

Can't see how these percentages make either one "absolutely the right call."

Fine. So why start a Dusty bashing thread on it?

You weren't bashing him per se, but you've been around long enough. The seeds were sown.

[scott91575]

So you'd risk lowering your expectancy percentage by over 20 points, to gain 5 percentage points? How is that an open and shut case!?

Depends on how successful you are at said risk.

[Brutus]

So you'd risk lowering your expectancy percentage by over 20 points, to gain 5 percentage points? How is that an open and shut case!?

The odds of a hit = 25%

The odds of an out = 75%

You're only gaining 5% points but you have a 75% chance of losing significant percentage points if you don't bunt.

So yeah, I'd rather play the 3/4 odds of gaining 5 percentage points than the 3/4 of losing 25+ points

[RedEye]

A strikeout or non-productive out would decrease their chances to 42.9%. A double play would decrease it to 27% [/url]

increasing your chances by 5% is a slam dunk when you've

1) got the fastest runner ever on second
2) got a pitcher who can't throw a strike to save his life
3) got a better chance to score more runs if you don't bunt

???

Hardly.

Also, I don't see your point about strikeouts and "non-productive" outs. Of course the percentages don't increase with those, but a bunt GUARANTEES that there will be one out unless the Astros decide to play Keystone Cops again.