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Thread: How good is Billy Hamilton?

  1. #61
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by herbdizzle View Post
    believe these 2 guys would free up the money to budget in Choo
    No. They wouldn't.

    The conversation with Choo is going to get started around a 5-6 year $20 million dollar contract and just go UP from there. The reds can clip coupons and look for rebates all they want, they don't have the money to get the conversation started.

    I hope I'm wrong. I would love to see Choo/Hamilton/Bruce in the of with Tulo at ss, but I don't think that's going to happen either.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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  3. #62
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by SporkLover View Post
    The problem I see is that while Choo might be able be re-signed.... but it might be at the cost of the Pitching Staff, without Cestellini expanding payroll.

    Walt will try to keep Bronson... within reason. Bailey, Leake, Simon, Lecure, Parra are all in Arb elibile years.

    Bailey was able to get $2+ mil after a mid 4 era 2011 for the 2012 season, $5+ mil for 2013 after a high mid 3 era 2012.... His 2013 is even better than 2012, and the market for pitchers is stronger this year.... I expect him to have an even larger salary awarded to him this off season.

    Leake is on the same trajectory.... he might triple his salary in the off season.

    Simon, Lecure, Parra... all having reasonably good years... they won't have multi-million years but will surely help eat into the $18 or so mil freed up by Shin and Arroyo. Add in there that Short stop is a must upgrade (IMHO), and you have a tough business case for chasing Choo for what Boras is likely to get after the season he's had..... again without Castellini expanding payroll.

    Here is how the math is working in my head:

    $ 18.875 Mil Freed by Arroyo and Choo

    - 1 mil for Bailey (In addition to current salary)
    - 4 mil for Leake (In addition to current salary)
    - 2 mil for Simon, Lecure, Parra
    - 1 mil for bench depth

    That's about 11 Mil left for trying to keep Arroyo (long shot) or Choo (Boras is likely to chase more than that amount).

    Personally I believe that the money would be best spent (assuming BH starts CF), maintaining the pitching staff (minus Arroyo), buying a better Short Stop, and invest in the bench.

    I might be off base... just my reading of the Tea Leaves.
    Bailey will get more than a $1 Million increase. I'm thinking $3.5 or $4 Million. Leake probably less than the $4 shown here. Maybe $2 Million. Lecure, Parra and Simon will require about $4 Million more as a group IMO.

    Already agreed raises: Ludwick $4.5 Million, Broxton $3 Million, Latos $3 Million, Bruce $2.5 Million, Cueto $2.5 Million, Marshall $1 Million, Phillips $1 Million, Ondrusek about $1 Million.

    Hanigan will be arb eligible and I'd guess a Million more for him. Heisey too, probably a $500K to $1 Million raise. The big one is Chapman. His pre-negotiated salary converts to a bonus (already a $1 Million increase) and then the Reds have to go to arb with him. Probably to the tune of around $7 Million IMO. His overall increase is probably in the $8 Million range.

    The Reds do get a benefit from Votto's extension kicking in. Year over year he'll be pulling in $7 Million less in cash in 2014 compared to 2013. The Reds also save with Masset and Arredondo coming off the books to the tune of nearly $4.5 Million combined.

    Payroll is going up without Choo and Arroyo. Just a matter of how much and how creative they can be. Don't forget when counting the Choo savings that the Indians are paying $3 Million of his deal.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-19-2013 at 02:55 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  4. #63
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    No. They wouldn't.

    The conversation with Choo is going to get started around a 5-6 year $20 million dollar contract and just go UP from there. The reds can clip coupons and look for rebates all they want, they don't have the money to get the conversation started.

    I hope I'm wrong. I would love to see Choo/Hamilton/Bruce in the of with Tulo at ss, but I don't think that's going to happen either.
    $20 mil a year? A little steep if you ask me. I seriously doubt that is where it starts at!

  5. #64
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Freak View Post
    Maybe folks who watched him more in the minors can comment on this. I'm not sure anyone on here expects him to have a lifetime 100% success rate in stolen bases (or maybe some do!). But looking at his minor league stats, his caught stealing numbers are pretty high. 20 in 2011, 37 in 2012, and 15 this year. Granted, when you're attempting that many steals, you're going to get caught every now and then.
    1. As you mentioned, if you run as often as Hamilton did in the minors, you are going to get caught quite a bit no matter how good you are. His percentages were still well above average.

    2. Hamilton is not a particularly skilled baserunner at this point in his career. He steals bases with raw speed, not great skills. He still has a ton of room for improvement as his skills catch up to his physical gifts. If he can ever develop Joe Morgan level baserunning skills to go with his speed, he just might be uncatchable.

  6. #65
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    No. They wouldn't.

    The conversation with Choo is going to get started around a 5-6 year $20 million dollar contract and just go UP from there. The reds can clip coupons and look for rebates all they want, they don't have the money to get the conversation started.

    I hope I'm wrong. I would love to see Choo/Hamilton/Bruce in the of with Tulo at ss, but I don't think that's going to happen either.
    I was basing guesses on his next contract at this blurb I read...

    Tim Dierkes ranked Choo fifth in the latest edition of MLBTR's 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings, and Choo's strong season should put agent Scott Boras in position to ask for at least a four-year, $60MM contract, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently opined.
    I don't think it's a slam dunk... but I do think this team could make a surprise splash over the winter if it makes bank with a few playoff games. That is a key revenue driver for the Choo sweepstakes.
    I have a love-hate relationship with Albert Pujols. Mostly hate.

  7. #66
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by Beltway View Post
    It doesn't surprise me that he's faster than Henderson. Henderson was fast, but the reason he stole so many bases is because he had a career OBP of .400+.

    I wonder how good a comp Hamilton is to Vince Coleman. Coleman had a career OBP of .324. He stole over 100 bases with a .301 OBP in 1986. Ridiculous. Could Hamilton put up similar numbers?
    That's PART of the reason. The biggest reason is how good Rickey was at reading the pitchers and getting HUGE jumps and leads. Yes, he was fast...but it was his otherworldly instincts that made him the thief he was.
    2014 predictions:
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  9. #67
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    For me, the Hamilton best case is Willie Wilson. A more likely scenario is Otis Nixon. The fear is Tom Goodwin, Curtis Goodwin or, wait for it, Willy Taveras.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #68
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel View Post
    I don't think it's a slam dunk... but I do think this team could make a surprise splash over the winter if it makes bank with a few playoff games. That is a key revenue driver for the Choo sweepstakes.
    If Cano reups with the Yankees Choo will be the best player on the market.
    He's coming off a career year.
    Media money is flooding the market and every team's fans want that biggest fish.

    As I wrote, it would not dissapoint me at all if I'm wrong and the Reds manage to bring him back.

    I just don't see how it could happen.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  11. #69
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Is Billy Hamilton really this good?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    His OBP in the minors for his career has been .350. I don't think his .308 AAA OBP is completely a fair portrayal of what he'll do at this level.

    Fact is, he is an improving contact guy who will support a high BABIP (.356 career minor league BABIP). There's no reason to think he'll only be a .300 OBP guy at the MLB level IMHO.
    Again, I'm not projecting what he will be in a year or two years. I think he has plenty of potential to be a guy who finds 1st base with regularity.

    Just as of right this second, hard to find much evidence that suggests he could do greater than .300 at the major league level when he has barely done that in AAA.

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    Re: Is Billy Hamilton really this good?

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    Again, I'm not projecting what he will be in a year or two years. I think he has plenty of potential to be a guy who finds 1st base with regularity.

    Just as of right this second, hard to find much evidence that suggests he could do greater than .300 at the major league level when he has barely done that in AAA.
    For the record, he got on base at a .330 rate the second half do the season this year. But still, I agree that .300 is his current ceiling for next year if he was forced to start the season in the bigs. Pitchers are going to be very agressive against him, avoid walks at all cost, which will expose the flaws of his swing, at least from the left side of the plate.

    3-4 with two walks against Astros pitching is like 2-6 with no walks against average MLB pitching. Kinda like a how a British 8 is an American 5.

  14. #71
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    Re: Is Billy Hamilton really this good?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    If Billy can put up an OBP in the .330 to .350 range, he is going to be deadly IMO. Anything more than that will make him lethal. And something less than that will still make him a useful player.
    Ummm... what's the difference between deadly and lethal? I thought they were synonyms.

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    Member BungleBengals's Avatar
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    If Cano reups with the Yankees Choo will be the best player on the market.
    He's coming off a career year.
    Media money is flooding the market and every team's fans want that biggest fish.

    As I wrote, it would not dissapoint me at all if I'm wrong and the Reds manage to bring him back.

    I just don't see how it could happen.
    http://www.forbes.com/teams/cincinnati-reds/

    I am no financial analyst by any means, but revenue alone last year looks like we made plenty to offset the players' salaries. Plus I would not be surprised if Walt makes a trade or two to net us some cash so we can afford Choo and the elevated contracts of Votto and Phillips.
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  18. #73
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Funny thing. Keeping Choo allows the Reds to carry Hamilton. If Choo goes, they need a better bat in CF IMO.
    I'd love to have choo back, don't get me wrong his obp is awesome, and he was one of my favorite players even before becoming a red. But let's look at the big picture. He's on the wrong side of 30, would require a hefty price tag with some years to go with it, and despite the hefty obp numbers he is very poor at hitting left handed pitching, and with the lack of real right handed threats, this is kind of an issue. Plus outfield is our one minor league position of strength. Idk what is available, but maybe it'd be possible to bring in a right handed bat somewhere that is younger or wants fewer years, puts up decent obp and power, and maybe helps improve the defense over this year. Billy will already improve center, maybe a younger guy to split time with ludwick, or a guy at third to replace Frazier? I really don't know who would be available and cheaper and fit the bill, but if it is possible, I think the 2014 team would be at least this years equal with better D and a more balanced lineup, and the future would be brighter due to the extra pick.

  19. #74
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Is Billy Hamilton really this good?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brisco View Post
    Ummm... what's the difference between deadly and lethal? I thought they were synonyms.
    Good point. I always thought that deadly meant "possible to cause death" whereas lethal was "certain to cause death." But yeah... I think I was wrong. I think they are functionally synonyms. As a political debater once said: "Oops."

  20. #75
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    For me, the Hamilton best case is Willie Wilson. A more likely scenario is Otis Nixon. The fear is Tom Goodwin, Curtis Goodwin or, wait for it, Willy Taveras.
    Willie Wilson is a nice comp. Not sure Billy ever gets Wilson's pop, but probably steals more bases than Wilson in a best case scenerio.
    Anyhow, Wilson was a generally a good OBP guy until he turned 29, I'd be very pleased with Wilson.

    I think Coleman is also a good best case comp. I'd be happy with that as well.
    (Although I'm going to be greedy and hope for a little more OBP than Coleman had)
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