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Thread: How good is Billy Hamilton?

  1. #16
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Hamilton is not a .600 OPS bat. That's Juan Castro territory.
    He was .651 this year at AAA after a dismal slump, but was .830 in 2012 (A+, AA) and .700 at Dayton in 2011.
    He has averaged an OBP of .350 in the minors (including this year's poor .308).

    OBP is going to be key. I think he can do .350 or better. Heck, Ryan Freel did that for quite a while.
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  4. #17
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Hamilton is not a .600 OPS bat. That's Juan Castro territory.
    He was .651 this year at AAA after a dismal slump, but was .830 in 2012 (A+, AA) and .700 at Dayton in 2011.
    He has averaged an OBP of .350 in the minors (including this year's poor .308).

    OBP is going to be key. I think he can do .350 or better. Heck, Ryan Freel did that for quite a while.
    Ryan Freel didn't do it in this new pitching era of baseball. Only 20 players in the NL have an OBP of .350 or above. That's less than 2 per team. And four of them are Cardinals. Who leads the league in runs? Somebody email that to Marty real quick.

  5. #18
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Would be better suited for 2 hole I believe if Choo is on the team. You can argue forever but the fact is most managers and of course Dusty like the 2 hole hitter to control the bat and move runners over. Would much prefer Hamilton doing the bunting over instead of Choo. Also that team would present interesting questions. Would they actually move Phillips all the way down to 5?

  6. #19
    Member LeDoux's Avatar
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Hamilton is not a .600 OPS bat. That's Juan Castro territory.
    He was .651 this year at AAA after a dismal slump, but was .830 in 2012 (A+, AA) and .700 at Dayton in 2011.
    He has averaged an OBP of .350 in the minors (including this year's poor .308).

    OBP is going to be key. I think he can do .350 or better. Heck, Ryan Freel did that for quite a while.
    I don't think he is a .600 OPS bat in 2015, but as of today, I wouldn't count on much more. He's good, he just might need a little more fine tuning to the big leagues. Although I do hope I am way off and he sports Votto-like numbers.

  7. #20
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    I have watched Hamilton bat in the minors and never thought he'd be embarrassing after that. He has a nice swing and stance. He stays pretty calm up there and attacks the ball with some decisiveness. He is still a little small, but another off season of workouts will help with everything.

  8. #21
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Is Billy Hamilton really this good?

    Quote Originally Posted by LeDoux View Post
    I fundamentally agree with you, but which is better?

    A. Choo's defense in LF, Hamilton's Defense in CF, and Hamilton's (likely) ~.600 OPS bat

    or

    B. Choo's Defense in CF, Ludwick's Defense in LF, and Ludwick's .626 (2013)/.794(career) OPS bat?

    I lean toward A in a playoff run.
    I would take A, without much hesitation.

    Looking towards 2014, I guess question is how much you think you are risking Hamilton's overall progression by moving him up to the majors before mastering AAA pitching. I'm not sure the answer to that... but it does seem from reading about Hamilton is that he does seem to have a great aptitude for learning, and he might be one of the few bats in his category that might be able to successfully learn on the fly while we take advantage of his other, already advanced tools.

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    Old school 1983 (09-19-2013)

  10. #22
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Is Billy Hamilton really this good?

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    Honestly, I don't know if it HAS to get that high based on his SB's. How often does Choo make it to 2b w/o an out being made? If Billy's OBP was .310, and he steals 2b successfully (theoretically) 90% of the time, before an out is made. That means, what, he's reaching second base .9 X .310, he's reaching 2b without an out being made 27.9% of the time. Now that's all based on some seriously hypothetical numbers, but is there a value you can place on THAT number? I really don't know. Any serious stats guys out there know? Am I out of my mind for even thinking it?
    Assuming 600 PAs
    x .310 OBP = 186
    allow 26 XBHs = 160 times at 1B
    running 70% of the time = 112 attempts (sometimes he would not be going and/or the hitter would hit the ball)
    112 attempts @ 85% = 95 steals + 26 XBHs = 121 times at second or better - on his own power/legs with only a .310 OBP

    85% success is just about what he was in the minors (slightly better actually - mostly pickoffs)
    26 XBH would, I assume be on the low side (I would sure hope) given his speed and ability to turn singles into doubles/doubles into triples
    It does assume that Baker wouldn't be bunting all the darn time when he got on, not necessarily a safe assumption,
    it also assumes playing full time to get to 600 PAs (plate appearances, not At Bats - easily attainable over a full season)

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    Old school 1983 (09-19-2013)

  12. #23
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    Re: Is Billy Hamilton really this good?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rock of Truth View Post
    What is crazy to me is that with only 2 weeks in 'the Bigs' he is 2nd on the team in stolen bases. Maybe that says more about the current line up than it does about Billy. For me, his hitting is still a little bit too slappy. Maybe when he is done, bring in Ichiro to help him refine that craft.
    I'd have to say with 11 games there is a chance he could top Choo for top spot in this category. That would be unbelievable. I mean they pitched out with a perfect throw. Crazy. 4 stolen bases last night in first start is a record in the live ball era. It's so fun to watch and I think it's the juice the reds need. They have seemed flat of late.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  13. #24
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Is Billy Hamilton really this good?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Assuming 600 PAs
    x .310 OBP = 186
    allow 26 XBHs = 160 times at 1B
    running 70% of the time = 112 attempts (sometimes he would not be going and/or the hitter would hit the ball)
    112 attempts @ 85% = 95 steals + 26 XBHs = 121 times at second or better - on his own power/legs with only a .310 OBP

    85% success is just about what he was in the minors (slightly better actually - mostly pickoffs)
    26 XBH would, I assume be on the low side (I would sure hope) given his speed and ability to turn singles into doubles/doubles into triples
    It does assume that Baker wouldn't be bunting all the darn time when he got on, not necessarily a safe assumption,
    it also assumes playing full time to get to 600 PAs (plate appearances, not At Bats - easily attainable over a full season)
    And Choo has 34 doubles, 1 triple, and 18 steals. I don't know.............what is the value in terms of runs for having a guy at 2b and no out. (I know it won't happen every time he gets on base, he won't lead off every inning, but hypothectically?) Is he as valuable as Choo at 2b, + Choo's 21 HR's.

  14. #25
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Is Billy Hamilton really this good?

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    And Choo has 34 doubles, 1 triple, and 18 steals. I don't know.............what is the value in terms of runs for having a guy at 2b and no out. (I know it won't happen every time he gets on base, he won't lead off every inning, but hypothectically?) Is he as valuable as Choo at 2b, + Choo's 21 HR's.
    I'll defer to someone more qualified about the actual math here BUT I will say IF Billy can OBP .310 or better and meet the numbers I listed, and the Reds can somehow sign Choo - holy moly, Choo in the 2 spot after Billy? A guy getting to 2nd 121 times for Choo, then Votto? Lord help the NL pitching staffs...of course Billy being able to do all this and Choo being re-signed are two VERY big ifs...

  15. #26
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Maybe folks who watched him more in the minors can comment on this. I'm not sure anyone on here expects him to have a lifetime 100% success rate in stolen bases (or maybe some do!). But looking at his minor league stats, his caught stealing numbers are pretty high. 20 in 2011, 37 in 2012, and 15 this year. Granted, when you're attempting that many steals, you're going to get caught every now and then.

    I'm wondering if the majority of his CS are getting thrown out by the catcher or getting picked off by the pitcher. At some point, I imagine teams will figure out a way to slow him down better than they are now.
    "In our sundown perambulations of late, through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base', a certain game of ball. Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our close rooms, the game of ball is glorious"
    -Walt Whitman

  16. #27
    Member hebroncougar's Avatar
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    Re: Is Billy Hamilton really this good?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I'll defer to someone more qualified about the actual math here BUT I will say IF Billy can OBP .310 or better and meet the numbers I listed, and the Reds can somehow sign Choo - holy moly, Choo in the 2 spot after Billy? A guy getting to 2nd 121 times for Choo, then Votto? Lord help the NL pitching staffs...of course Billy being able to do all this and Choo being re-signed are two VERY big ifs...
    I know I'd be looking to move Ludwick and resigning Choo if I was Walt. I'd be begging Castellini for the money to do it. Boras isn't going to be very reasonable to work with, I think that's the biggest hindrance to it happening.

  17. #28
    "So Fla Red"
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    Re: Is Billy Hamilton really this good?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I'll defer to someone more qualified about the actual math here BUT I will say IF Billy can OBP .310 or better and meet the numbers I listed, and the Reds can somehow sign Choo - holy moly, Choo in the 2 spot after Billy? A guy getting to 2nd 121 times for Choo, then Votto? Lord help the NL pitching staffs...of course Billy being able to do all this and Choo being re-signed are two VERY big ifs...
    Hamilton
    Choo
    Votto
    Bruce

    Would be incredible to watch next year. A pipe dream since lefties can't hit back-back-back and the Reds can't afford Choo, but man that would be fun.

    I have been thinking the exact thing as the premise in the post. A low .300 OBP boosted by the number of times he gets to second base/third base on his own merits. Does that make him closer to a high .300OBP lead-off hitter. And the added bonus of disruption opening up better opportunities for the best hitters behind him (assuming the #2 black hole doesn't reemerge next season).
    Last edited by oregonred; 09-19-2013 at 12:30 PM.

  18. #29
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Folks, I have visions of sugar plums dancing in my head for the Reds lineup going forward.

    Last night Billy looked WAY better with the bat than I expected. From scouting reports I thought he would look frail and overmatched against major league pitchers, but instead he look spry and even threatening at the plate, despite his thin stature. He also seems to have a knack for spraying the ball down the lines and inside the bags, which makes his speed that much more dangerous. I couldn't believe he was standing on second after such a short amount of time.

    Walt -- sign Choo and put this lineup out there next year, please:

    Hamilton CF
    Choo LF
    Votto 1B
    Bruce RF
    Phillips 2B
    Frazier 3B
    Mesoraco C
    Cozart SS
    Pitcher

    What a fun lineup that could be to watch!
    Those weren't major league pitchers. Those were the Astros.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  19. #30
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: How good is Billy Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Those weren't major league pitchers. Those were the Astros.
    Well, yeah, I know. Don't bring me back to reality, mth!


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