How good is Billy Hamilton?

[RedEye]

Folks, I have visions of sugar plums dancing in my head for the Reds lineup going forward.

Last night Billy looked WAY better with the bat than I expected. From scouting reports I thought he would look frail and overmatched against major league pitchers, but instead he look spry and even threatening at the plate, despite his thin stature. He also seems to have a knack for spraying the ball down the lines and inside the bags, which makes his speed that much more dangerous. I couldn't believe he was standing on second after such a short amount of time.

Walt -- sign Choo and put this lineup out there next year, please:

Hamilton CF
Choo LF
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Frazier 3B
Mesoraco C
Cozart SS
Pitcher

What a fun lineup that could be to watch!

[Hubba]

Folks, I have visions of sugar plums dancing in my head for the Reds lineup going forward.

Last night Billy looked WAY better with the bat than I expected. From scouting reports I thought he would look frail and overmatched against major league pitchers, but instead he look spry and even threatening at the plate, despite his thin stature. He also seems to have a knack for spraying the ball down the lines and inside the bags, which makes his speed that much more dangerous. I couldn't believe he was standing on second after such a short amount of time.

Walt -- sign Choo and put this lineup out there next year, please:

Hamilton CF
Choo LF
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Frazier 3B
Mesoraco C
Cozart SS
Pitcher

What a fun lineup that could be to watch!

No he is not that good yet. Sugar Plums?

[RedEye]

No he is not that good yet. Sugar Plums?

"Night Before Christmas" reference. You know, before opening your presents. Maybe not a perfect joke for RZ.

[Patrick Bateman]

As a hitter, right now the answer is no. He's probably a .600 OPS guy in the majors at this juncture. In the field and basepaths? I think it's pretty clear he's the best baserunner in baseball, and from the scouting reports I hear, it sounds like he might be that lethal in the field too.

He probably already has enough attributes that he can add some value to a major league lineup even with a .600 OPS. I'd still rather wait to let his bat season at the appropriate levels so we can try to turn him into a capable .700 guy rather than hinder his development. If he can do just that, and I think the chances are reasonably good, then yes, he can be an absolute star.

[hebroncougar]

As a hitter, right now the answer is no. He's probably a .600 OPS guy in the majors at this juncture. In the field and basepaths? I think it's pretty clear he's the best baserunner in baseball, and from the scouting reports I hear, it sounds like he might be that lethal in the field too.

He probably already has enough attributes that he can add some value to a major league lineup even with a .600 OPS. I'd still rather wait to let his bat season at the appropriate levels so we can try to turn him into a capable .700 guy rather than hinder his development. If he can do just that, and I think the chances are reasonably good, then yes, he can be an absolute star.

OPS isn't going to matter much with Hamilton. OBP is all that is going to matter. A single is almost a guaranteed double. You think someone will come up with a new stat for him, because of that?

[RedEye]

OPS isn't going to matter much with Hamilton. OBP is all that is going to matter. A single is almost a guaranteed double. You think someone will come up with a new stat for him, because of that?

If Billy can put up an OBP in the .330 to .350 range, he is going to be deadly IMO. Anything more than that will make him lethal. And something less than that will still make him a useful player.

[cumberlandreds]

If Billy can put up an OBP in the .330 to .350 range, he is going to be deadly IMO. Anything more than that will make him lethal. And something less than that will still make him a useful player.

I have said that before on here. If he OBP's just .330 he is a highly effective player. If he finds the magic to OBP around .400 he is a big time star.

[hebroncougar]

If Billy can put up an OBP in the .330 to .350 range, he is going to be deadly IMO. Anything more than that will make him lethal. And something less than that will still make him a useful player.

Honestly, I don't know if it HAS to get that high based on his SB's. How often does Choo make it to 2b w/o an out being made? If Billy's OBP was .310, and he steals 2b successfully (theoretically) 90% of the time, before an out is made. That means, what, he's reaching second base .9 X .310, he's reaching 2b without an out being made 27.9% of the time. Now that's all based on some seriously hypothetical numbers, but is there a value you can place on THAT number? I really don't know. Any serious stats guys out there know? Am I out of my mind for even thinking it?

[RedlegJake]

Honestly, I don't know if it HAS to get that high based on his SB's. How often does Choo make it to 2b w/o an out being made? If Billy's OBP was .310, and he steals 2b successfully (theoretically) 90% of the time, before an out is made. That means, what, he's reaching second base .9 X .310, he's reaching 2b without an out being made 27.9% of the time. Now that's all based on some seriously hypothetical numbers, but is there a value you can place on THAT number? I really don't know. Any serious stats guys out there know? Am I out of my mind for even thinking it?

Assuming 600 PAs
x .310 OBP = 186
allow 26 XBHs = 160 times at 1B
running 70% of the time = 112 attempts (sometimes he would not be going and/or the hitter would hit the ball)
112 attempts @ 85% = 95 steals + 26 XBHs = 121 times at second or better - on his own power/legs with only a .310 OBP

85% success is just about what he was in the minors (slightly better actually - mostly pickoffs)
26 XBH would, I assume be on the low side (I would sure hope) given his speed and ability to turn singles into doubles/doubles into triples
It does assume that Baker wouldn't be bunting all the darn time when he got on, not necessarily a safe assumption,
it also assumes playing full time to get to 600 PAs (plate appearances, not At Bats - easily attainable over a full season)

[Brisco]

If Billy can put up an OBP in the .330 to .350 range, he is going to be deadly IMO. Anything more than that will make him lethal. And something less than that will still make him a useful player.

Ummm... what's the difference between deadly and lethal? I thought they were synonyms.

[RedEye]

Ummm... what's the difference between deadly and lethal? I thought they were synonyms.

Good point. I always thought that deadly meant "possible to cause death" whereas lethal was "certain to cause death." But yeah... I think I was wrong. I think they are functionally synonyms. As a political debater once said: "Oops."

[Patrick Bateman]

OPS isn't going to matter much with Hamilton. OBP is all that is going to matter. A single is almost a guaranteed double. You think someone will come up with a new stat for him, because of that?

Agreed. but he's probably going to have trouble with a .300 OBP at this point (just spitballing based on his minor league performance). I think he has a quite a bit of potential in that regard in the future though.

[RedEye]

Agreed. but he's probably going to have trouble with a .300 OBP at this point (just spitballing based on his minor league performance). I think he has a quite a bit of potential in that regard in the future though.

Yeah, I agree. But as others have pointed out in the minor league forum, Billy shows great aptitude for improvement so far after some time at a new level. He was starting to trend up in AAA after an abysmal start. I think his first 1000 PA's in the majors will tell us a lot about where he is and where he can go.

[Brutus]

Agreed. but he's probably going to have trouble with a .300 OBP at this point (just spitballing based on his minor league performance). I think he has a quite a bit of potential in that regard in the future though.

His OBP in the minors for his career has been .350. I don't think his .308 AAA OBP is completely a fair portrayal of what he'll do at this level.

Fact is, he is an improving contact guy who will support a high BABIP (.356 career minor league BABIP). There's no reason to think he'll only be a .300 OBP guy at the MLB level IMHO.

[herbdizzle]

I have a couple questions that tie in with Billy's situation going forward.

1) How easy would it be for the Reds to trade Ludwick in the offseason to a team that would pick up his entire salary? I'm not concerned with the return but the payroll relief.

2) How easy would it be for the Reds to trade Broxton and his salary? Again only interested in salary relief.

I believe these 2 guys would free up the money to budget in Choo and allow them to go with a Choo/BHam/Bruce outfield in 2014. I think it's clear the guy can contribute now and while he may not be up to the standards we want him to be it wouldn't hurt for Billy to learn from Choo & Votto about plate discipline and hitting ball opposite field.

Thoughts?