How good is Billy Hamilton?

[westofyou]

Just How Tough Is It To Throw Out Billy Hamilton?

A scout said he and multiple other scouts timed Hamilton at 2.98-3.03 on steals last year. The same scout timed Rickey Henderson at 3.04-3.10 seconds from first to second in his prime. Yes, the scout said that Hamilton is faster going from first to second than the all-time stolen base champ.

If a base stealer can get from first to second in 3.1 seconds, the math of throwing him out becomes very, very difficult. With a slide-step, a pitcher can often cut his time to home to 1.1-1.2 seconds. Without the slide step, a 1.3 second time home is pretty reasonable. For any pitcher taking more than 1.3 seconds to throw home against Hamilton, it’s probably not worth even considering a pitchout.

[herbdizzle]

I have a couple questions that tie in with Billy's situation going forward.

1) How easy would it be for the Reds to trade Ludwick in the offseason to a team that would pick up his entire salary? I'm not concerned with the return but the payroll relief.

2) How easy would it be for the Reds to trade Broxton and his salary? Again only interested in salary relief.

I believe these 2 guys would free up the money to budget in Choo and allow them to go with a Choo/BHam/Bruce outfield in 2014. I think it's clear the guy can contribute now and while he may not be up to the standards we want him to be it wouldn't hurt for Billy to learn from Choo & Votto about plate discipline and hitting ball opposite field.

Thoughts?

[Beltway]

Davis and Sanders where both faster then Henderson, and I'd venture to say Sanders was faster then Coleman.

Deion Sanders' speed is seriously overrated. Always has been. He was pretty fast, but he was a great corner because of his instincts, not because he was the fastest human ever.

[cumberlandreds]

It doesn't surprise me that he's faster than Henderson. Henderson was fast, but the reason he stole so many bases is because he had a career OBP of .400+.

I wonder how good a comp Hamilton is to Vince Coleman. Coleman had a career OBP of .324. He stole over 100 bases with a .301 OBP in 1986. Ridiculous. Could Hamilton put up similar numbers?

Coleman is who I think about when I see Hamilton. Same type of build although Hamilton is even more thin than Coleman. If Hamilton could OBP the same and the Reds turn him loose he could put up similar stolen base numbers. But the game is played much differently now. So I don't know that whoever manages the Reds will let him go all the time.

[SporkLover]

Bingo. Walt and Bob have surprised us before, and recently. They have to see the potential we see for this lineup. I don't think signing Choo is off the table.

The problem I see is that while Choo might be able be re-signed.... but it might be at the cost of the Pitching Staff, without Cestellini expanding payroll.

Walt will try to keep Bronson... within reason. Bailey, Leake, Simon, Lecure, Parra are all in Arb elibile years.

Bailey was able to get $2+ mil after a mid 4 era 2011 for the 2012 season, $5+ mil for 2013 after a high mid 3 era 2012.... His 2013 is even better than 2012, and the market for pitchers is stronger this year.... I expect him to have an even larger salary awarded to him this off season.

Leake is on the same trajectory.... he might triple his salary in the off season.

Simon, Lecure, Parra... all having reasonably good years... they won't have multi-million years but will surely help eat into the $18 or so mil freed up by Shin and Arroyo. Add in there that Short stop is a must upgrade (IMHO), and you have a tough business case for chasing Choo for what Boras is likely to get after the season he's had..... again without Castellini expanding payroll.

Here is how the math is working in my head:

$ 18.875 Mil Freed by Arroyo and Choo

- 1 mil for Bailey (In addition to current salary)
- 4 mil for Leake (In addition to current salary)
- 2 mil for Simon, Lecure, Parra
- 1 mil for bench depth

That's about 11 Mil left for trying to keep Arroyo (long shot) or Choo (Boras is likely to chase more than that amount).

Personally I believe that the money would be best spent (assuming BH starts CF), maintaining the pitching staff (minus Arroyo), buying a better Short Stop, and invest in the bench.

I might be off base... just my reading of the Tea Leaves.

[mdccclxix]

I think Hamilton scores about 45% of the time he reaches base, if I recall correctly. With that kind of speed, he won't need to OBP over .310 to score runs at a very high level in comparison with the league. If he sports a .350 OBP and hits in front of Votto, Bruce, Phillips, et al, he will absolutely be a fantasy darling and end up scoring 100-120 runs.

With Choo leading off, I think Billy may make a lot of sense hitting 8th where if he is on, the pitcher can actually bunt him to 3rd after he steals. So, if Choo is back, I'd almost rather see

Choo
BP
Votto
Bruce
Mez
Frazier
Cozart
Hamilton
P

I wonder if it's possible the Reds look to trade BP this winter while his value is still high. I don't think you can take shots at the ownership and the teams best player and the team's rah rah guy and the media all in one season and not shake your spot loose. If that were to happen it would move Frazier to the 2 hole.

[RadfordVA]

Coleman is who I think about when I see Hamilton. Same type of build although Hamilton is even more thin than Coleman. If Hamilton could OBP the same and the Reds turn him loose he could put up similar stolen base numbers. But the game is played much differently now. So I don't know that whoever manages the Reds will let him go all the time.

I don't know Coleman was pretty stout. He had prototypical sprinter build with huge legs. Hamilton's speed is strange to me. Seems like the build of a long distance runner not a great sprinter.

[mdccclxix]

My personal favorite comp for Billy is Kenny Lofton, who was bigger it appears, but was a little older than Billy is now. I give Billy one more off season to stack some muscle on those arms and chest. Certainly by the time he's 25 he should be a decent size.

[dougdirt]

Do stolen bases measure the value of turning a single into a double?

A single + steal isn't the same value as a double.

[SporkLover]

A single + steal isn't the same value as a double.

XBH ?

[dougdirt]

XBH ?

What?

[cumberlandreds]

I don't know Coleman was pretty stout. He had prototypical sprinter build with huge legs. Hamilton's speed is strange to me. Seems like the build of a long distance runner not a great sprinter.

Yea, Coleman was more filled out than Hamilton. I think Hamilton will bulk up more as he gets older. Hamilton is only about 22?

[REDREAD]

I might be off base... just my reading of the Tea Leaves.

All very logical (your math for the payroll).

I'm intrigued by Walt's recent comment [paraphrased] where he said he was confident they had a good chance of resigning Choo.
It might come at the expense of trying to sign Bronson, but maybe Cingrani changed the Reds' plans for next year (along with Cueto appearing to be healthy).

We are also going to free up a little bit of money with Arredondo and Masset rolling off. Not a significant amount, but a little bit. But your point is taken, lots of guys are going to be getting raises next year.

[oneupper]

I have a couple questions that tie in with Billy's situation going forward.

1) How easy would it be for the Reds to trade Ludwick in the offseason to a team that would pick up his entire salary? I'm not concerned with the return but the payroll relief.

2) How easy would it be for the Reds to trade Broxton and his salary? Again only interested in salary relief.

I believe these 2 guys would free up the money to budget in Choo and allow them to go with a Choo/BHam/Bruce outfield in 2014. I think it's clear the guy can contribute now and while he may not be up to the standards we want him to be it wouldn't hurt for Billy to learn from Choo & Votto about plate discipline and hitting ball opposite field.

Thoughts?

After injury and at his age, I don't see anyone taking on more than 2mm of Ludwick's salary in 2014.

Broxton maybe even less than that. And the REDS owe him 16 mm for 2014-15.

Untradable at the current juncture. You have to hope they get healthy and play better.

[mth123]

I have a couple questions that tie in with Billy's situation going forward.

1) How easy would it be for the Reds to trade Ludwick in the offseason to a team that would pick up his entire salary? I'm not concerned with the return but the payroll relief.

2) How easy would it be for the Reds to trade Broxton and his salary? Again only interested in salary relief.

I believe these 2 guys would free up the money to budget in Choo and allow them to go with a Choo/BHam/Bruce outfield in 2014. I think it's clear the guy can contribute now and while he may not be up to the standards we want him to be it wouldn't hurt for Billy to learn from Choo & Votto about plate discipline and hitting ball opposite field.

Thoughts?

1. Darned near impossible
2. less chance than number 1.