How good is Billy Hamilton?

[REDREAD]

There was a DH used in that game.

Ok, but it's still a true statement to say Dusty didn't bat BH leadoff. That was the point.

[1940757690]

The last time I saw Hamilton play in person was spring in Louisville. Was very impressed with him then but nothing like the past couple of weeks.

Today was my first time seeing him in person with the Reds. Even more impressive than watching on TV though know I was lucky to catch his best hitting day, the 'double-that-would-have-been-as-single-for-anyone-else' and, if I'm recalling correctly, the first time he made a move to steal third.

The biggest thing I noticed at PNC today was the impact he has on opposing players' nerves. Watching his ABs and then base-running carefully, it totally reminded me of how Jackie Robinson was, 'dancing' and almost thumbing his nose at the pitchers trying to pick him off, totally messing with their heads before he'd be off and the base stolen.

Really an amazing thing to see the chatter and signals between opposing dugout, catcher, pitcher and infielders; the impact on the pitcher's timing as he gets unglued. It was a real privilege to be able to watch him and the team today. Loved every minute of it.

[IslandRed]

Maybe it's time for BHAM: Bases However Acquired Metric.

I keep saying he's the new math.

Agreed on call counts. The old saying about "get him on, get him over, get him in"... there's been a great deal of discussion in analytical circles about the value of OBP (get him on) and slugging (get him in), but "get him over" has somewhat ignored by comparison, at least to the extent it concerns a player's skill in helping himself along, as opposed to strategy (obviously, the sac bunt thing has been beaten to death). I know there are guesstimate baserunning values incorporated into WAR, and general guidelines about the value of stolen bases and success breakpoints, but I have a feeling that people are going to watch Hamilton, sense that the existing metrics aren't good enough to describe the totality what they're seeing, and get to work.

[RadfordVA]

The biggest thing I noticed at PNC today was the impact he has on opposing players' nerves. Watching his ABs and then base-running carefully, it totally reminded me of how Jackie Robinson was, 'dancing' and almost thumbing his nose at the pitchers trying to pick him off, totally messing with their heads before he'd be off and the base stolen.

Really an amazing thing to see the chatter and signals between opposing dugout, catcher, pitcher and infielders; the impact on the pitcher's timing as he gets unglued. It was a real privilege to be able to watch him and the team today. Loved every minute of it.

Perhaps Jackie Robinson from the movies. This is a good article on attempting to separate myth and fact about Jackie's base running. For instance he was only 29 out of 40 his rookie season so odds are Billy Hamilton is already much more disruptive than Robinson was.

http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/4...aught-stealing

[Chip R]

I'd like to see him steal 3rd. It seems that every time he's on 2nd and tries to steal 3rd, Votto hits a fly ball. The one in HOU, Votto swung on the 1st pitch and yesterday in the 5th(?) at least Votto took a few before popping up. I know Dusty is trying to be risk averse and you aren't supposed to make the 1st or 3rd out at 3rd but with a guy like Billy out there, it isn't that much of a risk.

[klw]

Hamilton now is 12 for 12 in stolen base attempts since joining the Reds on Sept. 2 and consistently has been a difference-maker. Sending him in to pinch-run is like plugging a lamp into a socket. The light just comes on. He changes games, rattles opponents and leaves a vapor trail that's been absent since the Apollo launches.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/...-in-pittsburgh

[Tom Servo]

The biggest thing I noticed at PNC today was the impact he has on opposing players' nerves. Watching his ABs and then base-running carefully, it totally reminded me of how Jackie Robinson was, 'dancing' and almost thumbing his nose at the pitchers trying to pick him off, totally messing with their heads before he'd be off and the base stolen.

I said it in the game thread but when he bunted his way on and stole second with Heisey up, the way Gomez kept looking back at Billy I just knew he was going to end up leaving something over the plate for Heisey to hit. And he did.

[cumberlandreds]

Does anyone know what the record is for consecutive steals to start a career? I would think Hamilton is getting close.

[Sea Ray]

It's fun to check out these numbers:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting...rt/stolenBases

It shows Billy as being #26 in the league in stolen bases and only 14 ABs. The players around him generally have over 400 ABs. He has an outside chance of finishing in the top 20 in the league in SBs and passing Choo as #1 on the Reds

[Ironman92]

Does anyone know what the record is for consecutive steals to start a career? I would think Hamilton is getting close.

Tim Raines 27?

[mdccclxix]

I was surprised no one has over 80 bags since 1988 when Ricky and Coleman both did it. I think Billy has a clear shot at that next year. I was also surprised at the dearth of stolen base threats in MLB history. There are really just 5-10 guys worth noting.

[klw]

I was surprised no one has over 80 bags since 1988 when Ricky and Coleman both did it. I think Billy has a clear shot at that next year. I was also surprised at the dearth of stolen base threats in MLB history. There are really just 5-10 guys worth noting.

I wonder if the change away from Astroturf had much of an effect on this. The turf was faster requiring faster OF and would allow the base runners to be faster on the basepaths. Obviously the HR explosion had an effect too.

[Chip R]

I wonder if the change away from Astroturf had much of an effect on this. The turf was faster requiring faster OF and would allow the base runners to be faster on the basepaths. Obviously the HR explosion had an effect too.

One thing to consider is that base stealers don't get paid like HR hitters do. Guys like Bonds or Eric Davis who had power and speed focused on the power more than the speed. I think that guys who used to play baseball that could run are gravitating more towards football and basketball. Also, being a base-stealer is hard on a body. But, ultimately, I believe that as you said, the HR explosion is the main culprit. Why risk a chance of getting thrown out when you can score on a HR?

[klw]

I had been thinking about the effect of turf vs dirt in the infield and stealing while watching an old youtube of Morgan stealing a base in the 76 Series at Riverfront (IIRC). The difference between sprinting on turf vs dirt must be similar to modern tracks vs. cinders for runners. Maybe worth .1 of a second per base. Enough to be significant perhaps.

[RollyInRaleigh]

I had been thinking about the effect of turf vs dirt in the infield and stealing while watching an old youtube of Morgan stealing a base in the 76 Series at Riverfront (IIRC). The difference between sprinting on turf vs dirt must be similar to modern tracks vs. cinders for runners. Maybe worth .1 of a second per base. Enough to be significant perhaps.

Bound to be some difference, but the infield dirt is highly groomed dirt these days. Might Hamilton's speed bring back creative groundskeeping?