How good is Billy Hamilton?

[Kc61]

I'm guessing Coleman is a pretty good comp for Hamilton as an offensive player. The fact that Hamilton plays center field whereas Coleman played left increases Hamilton's value.

If you just look at Coleman's OPS/OPS+, you're going to miss a lot. The first few years of his career, Coleman was a difference-maker. He might not have gotten on base as often as you would like, but every time he did, it had tremendous impact. He was looking to steal every time. The pitchers knew it, the catchers knew it, and it affected everything they did. It forced bad pickoff attempts, changed pitch selection and created holes in the infield. He was absolutely disruptive.

Now, once that diminished, I think he became a pretty low-value guy. That covers the entire second half of his career. I think this type of player -- even with traditionally low OBPs and substandard OPSs -- can be incredibly valuable when they're able to use their speed like Coleman did. When they can't or aren't allowed to, their value disappears.

That's my biggest concern with Hamilton -- will he be allowed to use his speed to that extent when he becomes a regular? Will a manager live with 20 caught-stealings a season? Because if they take their foot off the gas, even a little, he becomes just another light-hitting guy who bounces around as a pinch runner and defensive replacement.

I felt like Drew Stubbs could have been more valuable if they had let him steal more. He never was going to get on base at a high rate, but they could have gotten more value out of those times on base. If they do the same thing with Hamilton, he's going to have a short career.

I think we have seen this September that the Reds understand your point. They have let Billy run. Agree with your Coleman discussion completely.

[Kc61]

Watch the replay of the big Mes hit scoring two tonight in the ninth at Pittsburgh. Watch BH fly around the bases to score easily. After he had stolen second.

No, his OPS doesn't tell the story of his huge impact on the game. What a weapon.

[Brutus]

I'm guessing Coleman is a pretty good comp for Hamilton as an offensive player. The fact that Hamilton plays center field whereas Coleman played left increases Hamilton's value.

If you just look at Coleman's OPS/OPS+, you're going to miss a lot. The first few years of his career, Coleman was a difference-maker. He might not have gotten on base as often as you would like, but every time he did, it had tremendous impact. He was looking to steal every time. The pitchers knew it, the catchers knew it, and it affected everything they did. It forced bad pickoff attempts, changed pitch selection and created holes in the infield. He was absolutely disruptive.

Now, once that diminished, I think he became a pretty low-value guy. That covers the entire second half of his career. I think this type of player -- even with traditionally low OBPs and substandard OPSs -- can be incredibly valuable when they're able to use their speed like Coleman did. When they can't or aren't allowed to, their value disappears.

That's my biggest concern with Hamilton -- will he be allowed to use his speed to that extent when he becomes a regular? Will a manager live with 20 caught-stealings a season? Because if they take their foot off the gas, even a little, he becomes just another light-hitting guy who bounces around as a pinch runner and defensive replacement.

I felt like Drew Stubbs could have been more valuable if they had let him steal more. He never was going to get on base at a high rate, but they could have gotten more value out of those times on base. If they do the same thing with Hamilton, he's going to have a short career.

Stubbs was perfectly allowed to use his speed. It's awfully tough to use it when you're only getting on base 27% of the time.

Last year, he attempted a steal in nearly one quarter of the opportunities he had to steal a base. The NL average was 6.7%.

There's really no reason to think Hamilton won't have a green light.

[VR]

So....6 pinch running steals....5 of them were the tying or go ahead run? Do I have that right?

[Wheelhouse]

Watch the replay of the big Mes hit scoring two tonight in the ninth at Pittsburgh. Watch BH fly around the bases to score easily. After he had stolen second.

No, his OPS doesn't tell the story of his huge impact on the game. What a weapon.

Stealing bases at an 85% clip IS slugging. It's a weakness of the OPS stat that it doesn't reflect that. 85% of the time a Billy Hamilton single or walk is a double. Not to mention the number of times he steals two bases and ends up at third. That's big game impact.

[smixsell]

Anybody who knows baseball and watched Raines, Coleman, and Henderson play knows what a weapon that kind of speed is. It's great to see the current Reds regime is learning this lesson first hand before our very eyes.


PS I suspect BIlly's low side is Coleman and his upside is in the Raines neighborhood

[membengal]

I don't care to quantify it. In my 42 years of life and 37 years being a baseball fanatic, I have never seen anything like it. I revel in the newness of the experience, and am excited to see whatever might become of it.

[M2]

Hamilton's been on base 12 times and scored 7 runs. Not bad.

[lollipopcurve]

So....6 pinch running steals....5 of them were the tying or go ahead run? Do I have that right?

WAR, anyone?

[Steve4192]

PS I suspect BIlly's low side is Coleman and his upside is in the Raines neighborhood

I don't see Billy ever developing Raines' power. Rock had a career OPS+ of 123 and hit 170 home runs.

I think a guy like Bid McPhee is a more likely ceiling for Hamilton. Bid didn't have a ton of power, but he had enough to put the ball into gaps and use hit speed to take extra bases and post a slightly above-average OPS. He didn't challenge for any batting titles, but he was still able to reach base at a 35% clip despite an unspectacular 272 career batting average.

That is the kind of guy I hope Billy turns into. If he can get on base 35% of the time and post an OPS+ north of 100, he will be an incredibly effective major leaguer.

[RollyInRaleigh]

What impact will Hamilton's speed have on infield hits and bunt hits? Will his speed have a major impact on getting hits that most players would be called out on?

Puts tremendous pressure on the infielders and outfielders at all times. One little bobble or mistake and it means a base, and that pressure will cause mistakes.

[Tony Cloninger]

I thought Vince Coleman as well since last year.....however there are no turf stadiums anymore, which helped Vince get on base with hits into the turf allowing him to use his speed. He could still beat some of the most routine grounders than most baseball players....so much so that I see SS and 2B playing or moving closer up to cut him off.

[dfs]

I don't care to quantify it. In my 42 years of life and 37 years being a baseball fanatic, I have never seen anything like it. I revel in the newness of the experience, and am excited to see whatever might become of it.

I had the chance to see Billy play in Dayton and simply could not believe what I was experiencing. I'm not a big believer in speed. I kept reading the national reports about how he wouldn't be able to do that against better competition and thought "well, ok."

Boy, this is fun.

[Ironman92]

Hamilton's been on base 12 times and scored 7 runs. Not bad.

And 4 of them would not have been scored by anyone else on the Reds

[kaldaniels]

He's gonna get caught stealing in Cincy. It will break my heart when it happens.

But how did minor league catchers throw him out at a decent clip (decent being that Hamilton is so good)?