What to make of this stat?

[redssince75]

Just a little something I saw when looking at expanded standings (which I rarely do, usually I just look at them on my phone which gives bare basics).

Through 152/153 games the Pirates and Reds were 87-65/(66 for us). But our run differential is +114 while the Pirates' is +40. What exactly does this tell everyone?

- the Pirates win more close games than the Reds do
- we lose more close games than the Pirates do
- when we win, we tend to win big (or at least bigger than the Pirates)
- when the Pirates lose, they tend to lose big (or at least bigger than the Reds)

Some or all or none of the above? What's the proper analysis?

[M2]

From a Pythag standpoint, the Reds are just about where they should be. Technically their run differential would have them at 89-64, but this isn't an exact science.

The Pirates are flat out playing lucky. Technically they should be 81-71. Pretty much every season you get a team or two that plays lucky. This year it's the Pirates. They're still a decent team, but they don't have much business hanging with the Reds and Cardinals.

On a tangential note, last night Andrew McCutchen became only the second Pirate in history to post three consecutive 20-20 seasons. The first was some guy named Bonds. Blew my mind that that franchise has had such a dearth of consistent power-speed players.

[Cant Touch This]

It means the Pirates will have to pitch themselves through the post-season. They have outscored only three NL teams: Cubs, Marlins, and Padres. On the flip side, the only team to allow fewer runs is Atlanta. (The Reds rank third best in runs allowed.)

In other words, score 4 runs against Pittsburgh and you'll probably win.

[oregonred]

Pirates ERA is about a point lower at home (2.86) where they are lights out. 28-22 in one run games and the second lowest runs against in the NL (ATL with the Reds close behind).

The Reds now have the best road ERA in the NL (3.46)

Agree, put up four on the Pirates and you should win. Gotta love rolling out Latos and Bailey against the Bucs in the opening games.