Walt and Scott seems to be trading (equally unreliable) opinions in the press these days. Hard to tell what will happen, but the two sides are posturing, that's for sure.
Drugs Delaney (09-28-2013)
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
My question is: what happens when a guy like Jesse Winker or Phillip Ervin come knocking on the door in a couple years? While the Reds payroll is increasing, it has a limit and you need young, cheap talent to survive. Also, how would people's opinions change if signing Choo prevents the Reds from signing two out of the three big arms long term?
Just call me Legs
Give Bailey the money and let Choo walk. I've thought all along that a 31 year old Choo would be very unwise to go for less than 5 years. I expect 6 for 90 and I think that's too much for the Reds. I would try to keep Bailey instead but don't expect that to be possible either. Maybe, as KC pointed out earlier, this will get the FO to think about how to restructure the offense rather than simply thinking of holding on to particular players or plugging in replacements for them.
when asked in a chat what he thought Choo would get Dave Cameron replied 5/75
The Mets are now saying they won't go beyond 4 years for Choo. It'll make things a bit harder for Boras to get 5 for Choo.
"Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."
I'd love Choo at 4/68 but doubt it will happen.
Best scenario, with Winker and Ervin on the horizon, is he takes the Reds' qualifying offer, but again I seriously doubt that will ever happen.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. -- Terrance Mann (Field of Dreams)
That's what happened with Sabo. The Reds offered him way more than what he ended up signing for, but because his agent had him convinced he could get more he waited until past the point where he could negoiate with Cincy and ended up going somewhere else.
Sto Pro Veritate
I think it'll be pretty close to 5/100MM when it is all said and done. My guess is teams with big money like the Rangers, Yankees and Cubs will fall hard for his OB numbers (rightly so) and wet themselves into a minor bidding war. After Cano, he's the cream of a fairly thin free-agent crop, in my opinion.