Yep. That's why I specified AL on that one.Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton
Yep. That's why I specified AL on that one.
Rounding third and heading for home...
they DID drive in the odd run...but that was a looooong time ago.
Look at the numbers over the last few weeks...Luddy/Bruce are NOT getting it done. They are NOT. NOT!!! Can't you see that?
Luddy's only value is lead-off singles so Billy can run for him. Votto doesn't even bat in those innings, let alone contribute.
The 2013 Reds' OPS differential for LHP vs RHP is -.014. Of the top 5 NL Run scoring teams, the Reds are the least likely to be negatively affected by a southpaw. For comparison, the Cardinals are 6.21 times more negatively affected than are the Reds.
Part of that is that Choo, Bruce, and particularly Votto and not just weenie bats versus LHP. Choo has produced a .349 OBP, Votto a .378 OBP/.449 SLG line, and Bruce a .446 SLG. Now, Choo loses almost all his power, Bruce a bit of OBP but you could put those three guys in consecutive lineup slots against left-handers and STILL score a bunch of Runs.
Against lefties, Votto becomes the 11th toughest out in the NL rather than the toughest (Choo would be in the top 20 with a .349 OBP, BTW) and produces an All-Star caliber line rather than the MVP-like numbers we're used to. Bruce and Votto would both rank in the top 32 in SLG.
Not even close to "neutralized".
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
Bruce has 20 RBI in September in 90 AB.
That's a rate of .222 RBI per AB; topped only by his May rate of .224 RBI per AB. Since the start of September, Bruce has driven in a higher rate of runners than Brandon Phillips has in any month this season.
Bruce has been the epitome of "getting it done" over the last few weeks.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
BluegrassRedleg (09-26-2013),dougdirt (09-27-2013),New York Red (09-26-2013),Raisor (09-27-2013)
Bruce has 20 RBI's in September, 4th in the NL, so it couldn't have been too long ago.
In baseball terms, 2 weeks is a small sample size. An exceptionally small sample size.
You don't make long term line up changes based on a few weeks of stats.
dougdirt (09-27-2013),New York Red (09-26-2013)
Don't feed the trolls. Dude isn't even trying to form rational, non-clinically insane arguments. Just pure drivel.
Votto and Bruce have always done decently against lefties. Choo as a hitter, not a walker or a HBP is weak against lefties until recent uptick. I like the OBP, but if a lefty challenges choo chances are he is going to not get a hit. Use Gasp! Batting average to tell us that. Plus let's live in reality here. Dusty will never bat them all in a row versus anyone. There's no way choo has as many hbp as last year vs lefties to bring that OBP number to where it is. Put a right handed bat between votto and Bruce capable of around an 800 ops, add in hamiltons speed on the bases and better D in center and the improvement that ludwick will bring to LFs ops the entire year and things should be around the same. You can't go elite OBP v righties/good OBP minimal hitting v lefties, then a hole, then elite ops, then a hole, then all star but inconsistent and strikeout prone and expect to do anything with consistency. The days the role players can knock choo and votto in ir they knock each other in or Bruce is on hot streak, the lineup feasts. This doesn't happen and the lineup famines. Speed doesn't slump and creates havoc when it can reach. If they get a higher ops right handed hitter to bat four and fill a void in the 4 spot, we'd really have a threat vs lefties when coupled with votto and Bruce's production. Plus ludwick for the entire year, I think the lineup may actually be better.
Last edited by Old school 1983; 09-26-2013 at 11:37 PM.
I wonder if there would be so much emphasis on batting order if the Reds hitters were of more even quality. I doubt it.
The underlying point of these threads overall seems to be how to score the most runs by emphasizing Choo, Votto and Bruce. And since Choo's lineup spot is obviously lead off, it's really just Votto and Bruce.
Just looking at ESPN's team batting stats by position, the Reds OPS at every position is below average except first base, CF, RF and pitcher. Ultimately if they had solid average hitters at more positions, I think the batting order would essentially take care of itself.
Last edited by Kc61; 09-26-2013 at 11:48 PM.
AmarilloRed (09-27-2013),BluegrassRedleg (09-27-2013),Old school 1983 (09-27-2013)
All I can say is that I watch the games...and in quite a few we are getting beat despite decent-to-good pitching because we are not scoring many runs. And the middle of the order is going down awfully easy the majority of the time in those games. Am I the only one who thinks that?
Batting Average is part of OBP; something Choo has been good at versus all pitchers this year regardless of handedness.
And there's no such thing as a "walker" in baseball. They're all hitters.
The Reds are the third highest scoring team in the NL against RHP and have scored the 2nd most Runs in the NL versus southpaws.Plus let's live in reality here. Dusty will never bat them all in a row versus anyone. There's no way choo has as many hbp as last year vs lefties to bring that OBP number to where it is. Put a right handed bat between votto and Bruce capable of around an 800 ops, add in hamiltons speed on the bases and better D in center and the improvement that ludwick will bring to LFs ops the entire year and things should be around the same. You can't go elite OBP v righties/good OBP minimal hitting v lefties, then a hole, then elite ops, then a hole, then all star but inconsistent and strikeout prone and expect to do anything with consistency.
Your claim was that the Reds are "neutralized" by lefties. They sure as heck haven't been in 2013. Not sure what Billy Hamilton or an .800 OPS bat not currently on the roster have to do with that.
1) Speed does slump. All players do.The days the role players can knock choo and votto in ir they knock each other in or Bruce is on hot streak, the lineup feasts. This doesn't happen and the lineup famines. Speed doesn't slump and creates havoc when it can reach. If they get a higher ops right handed hitter to bat four and fill a void in the 4 spot, we'd really have a threat vs lefties when coupled with votto and Bruce's production. Plus ludwick for the entire year, I think the lineup may actually be better.
2) You can't steal first base.
And yes, I'm aware that when the Reds score Runs, they score Runs and when they don't they don't. That's sort of how all teams go about their seasons.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
Raisor (09-27-2013)
So what do you think, a 100+ rbi hitter should be batting 7, 8, maybe even 9th or just stick his butt on the bench?
Especially since this is a murders row lineup...
I think people are missing the point of the thread. The lineup I introduced was to take advantage of what our players are doing this season.
Choo
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Ludwick
Frazier
Cozart
Mes/Hanigan
P
I agree that Votto is a great hitter historically, but I think even he would agree that he is not hitting like he used to. His walk rate and ability to get on base is worthless when pitchers are pitching around him to get the next guy out. In my lineup, we have the top 2 guys in the NL as the 1 and 2 hole followed by the 2nd and 4th guys in RBI in NL.
Anyone who has watched the games on FSO should know that BP is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde with guys on base compared to bases empty. Hitting 3 hole behind Choo and Votto would literally give BP the best chance to bat with guys on base. Having Bruce bat behind him would ensure that he will get strikes thrown to him too. BP performed all year in the 4 hole. Yes his average is cra.p but nearly 100 RBIs from that position cannot be overlooked. Our current lineup has given him no chance to get back to that production. Instead of driving guys in, we are wasting outs on sacrifice bunts.
2015 Attendance 2-1 (4/6, 4/7,4/24)
2014 Attendance 1-3 (3/31, 4/12, 8/14)
2013 Attendance: 6-0 (4/3, 4/16, 4/17, 8/3, 8/21, 9/7)
I was talking about the lineup going forward. Most likely without choo. Speed doesn't slump. He's not going to become slower instantly unless there's an injury. His range will be better than Choos in center and I'm pretty sure no one else in baseball is beating out grounders to second for basehits. All batters slump. Speed is consistent. I'm talking about moving forward without choo. Replace his production. With a righty dusty will be more likely to string the best hitters together. And really reds fans would you rather the reds face a lefty where our best players become average or a righty where are best players are elite in areas other than walking or the occasional long ball?
Let's look at our best players actually hitting against lefties.
Votto .253
http://www.fangraphs.com/splits.aspx...t=lr&type=full
Choo .217
http://www.fangraphs.com/splits.aspx...t=lr&type=full
Bruce .248
http://www.fangraphs.com/splits.aspx...t=lr&type=mini
Let's take a look at the reds three best hitters vs left handed pitching in terms of actually hitting the ball and getting on base. Votto. Average at reaching by a hit. Choo. Poor at reaching by a hit. Bruce. On the cusp of poor on reaching by a hit. There is no one on this team that consistently punishes left handed pitching the way the reds do as a unit v. Righties. There are no reds hitters that consistently punish lefties the way choo, Bruce and votto do righties. At a certain point you have to do more than just reach base to score. You have to hit the ball and reach base and drive in runs. Our best ops guy becomes an average hitter with great overall on base ability. Our second best hitter becomes a weak hitter with inflated but good OBP. Our third best hitter becomes a weak/average hitter with some pop. Our most dangerous hitters best tool versus lefties is the walk. While it's a productive event, it's an event that takes the assistance of shakey teammates to create runs. So point being. Average hitters don't scare pitchers. Get a righty who can punish lefties to hit behind votto and this will increase the value of his OBP vs lefties. Getting on base is great, but to score except in rare situations you also have to hit. No one really consistently punishes lefties in this lineup. There's no one skewing the numbers up versus lefties the way these three do against righties. So it's the same thing as vs righties. Great hitter followed by a hole. When the role players in the holes don't hit, the offense stagnates. No matter how bad we want dusty to string together the best hitters it won't happen because they are left handed. Even if choo returns a better right handed bat is needed to improve and balance the offense.
Last edited by Old school 1983; 09-27-2013 at 12:22 PM.
I'd lump the best hitters together and take your chances.
Hamilton (or Phillips)
Choo
Votto
Bruce
Frazier
Phillips (or Ludwick)
Cozart
Catcher
I agree. Unfortunately dusty doesn't most of the time and he's the manager. That's kind of been the point of my recent posts. Get a right hander that can mash going forward even with choo. Our lefties do a great job if getting in vs lefties, but at that point you have to rely on lesser players to get them in because dusty won't string his best hitters together. Get an above average righty and he will, and he'll string them together and you'll have OBP and slugging vs lefties in a row not just OBP and pray that a role player has a hot night or Bruce connects.
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