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Thread: Another Lineup Construction Thread

  1. #46
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    I think people are missing the point of the thread. The lineup I introduced was to take advantage of what our players are doing this season.

    Choo
    Votto
    Phillips
    Bruce
    Ludwick
    Frazier
    Cozart
    Mes/Hanigan
    P

    .
    How about this lineup

    Votto
    Choo
    Bruce
    Phillips
    Cozart
    Frazier
    Mesoraco
    Heisey

    Not really a lineup but that is how the Reds players rank in Plate Appearances this season. I found it interesting that while the daily lineups are not what some would like, at the end of the season the best players still are getting the most at bats. Yes they could have more but also maybe the more they had the more they wear down. No one this season has come to plate more than the 3 best hitters.

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  4. #47
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    Anyone who has watched the games on FSO should know that BP is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde with guys on base compared to bases empty.
    He has been this year, but never really has before.

    It's likely not a repeatable skill. He certainly hasn't been doing it in September.

  5. #48
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    I was talking about the lineup going forward. Most likely without choo. Speed doesn't slump. He's not going to become slower instantly unless there's an injury. His range will be better than Choos in center and I'm pretty sure no one else in baseball is beating out grounders to second for basehits. All batters slump. Speed is consistent.
    You Can't Steal First Base. I have the antidote for pretty much every baseball truism I come across.

    You're not actually saying anything about Billy Hamilton other than that he's fast. Yeah, we know that. But to replace Choo's performance level, he'll have to be a good sight better than just fast.

    I'm talking about moving forward without choo. Replace his production. With a righty dusty will be more likely to string the best hitters together.
    RH or LH doesn't matter. Get good hitters and keep them. Especially for 2013, lineup 'balance' is a non-starter as the Reds have demonstrated that their 2013 performance really doesn't suffer all that much against either RH or LH pitchers. They're one of the top three teams in the NL versus either.

    And really reds fans would you rather the reds face a lefty where our best players become average or a righty where are best players are elite in areas other than walking or the occasional long ball?
    Why no concern about the RH splits for the remainder of the roster then? I would think that would worry you more considering that teams spend the vast majority of the time facing right-handers.

    Let's look at our best players actually hitting against lefties.

    Votto .253
    http://www.fangraphs.com/splits.aspx...t=lr&type=full

    Choo .217

    http://www.fangraphs.com/splits.aspx...t=lr&type=full


    Bruce .248
    http://www.fangraphs.com/splits.aspx...t=lr&type=mini

    Let's take a look at the reds three best hitters vs left handed pitching in terms of actually hitting the ball and getting on base. Votto. Average at reaching by a hit. Choo. Poor at reaching by a hit. Bruce. On the cusp of poor on reaching by a hit. There is no one on this team that consistently punishes left handed pitching the way the reds do as a unit v. Righties. There are no reds hitters that consistently punish lefties the way choo, Bruce and votto do righties. At a certain point you have to do more than just reach base to score. You have to hit the ball and reach base and drive in runs. Our best ops guy becomes an average hitter with great overall on base ability. Our second best hitter becomes a weak hitter with inflated but good OBP. Our third best hitter becomes a weak/average hitter with some pop. Our most dangerous hitters best tool versus lefties is the walk. While it's a productive event, it's an event that takes the assistance of shakey teammates to create runs. So point being. Average hitters don't scare pitchers. Get a righty who can punish lefties to hit behind votto and this will increase the value of his OBP vs lefties. Getting on base is great, but to score except in rare situations you also have to hit. No one really consistently punishes lefties in this lineup. There's no one skewing the numbers up versus lefties the way these three do against righties. So it's the same thing as vs righties. Great hitter followed by a hole. When the role players in the holes don't hit, the offense stagnates. No matter how bad we want dusty to string together the best hitters it won't happen because they are left handed. Even if choo returns a better right handed bat is needed to improve and balance the offense.
    And now we've regressed into a wall of text about Batting Average. We've come a long way in figuring out how Runs are actually scored and BA is certainly not a good measure of who does that the best, but let's talk about Batting Average...

    The 2013 Reds lose all of 8 points of BA against LH pitchers versus their RH counterparts. That's it. That's a little bit of nothing and the result is that they score the 2nd most Runs versus LHP in the NL.That means that while LH hitters see a drop in performance versus southpaws, the rest of the team RH component sees a like increase as a group. Versus RH pitchers, some of the RH hitters struggle; which is offset by upticks from guys like Choo, Votto, and Bruce.

    Considering the 2013 results (see: very balanced) fretting about the LH hitter performance against LHP is akin to seeing the shadow of a molehill and mistaking it for a mountain. Ditto for Batting Average.

    The Reds could one more performer to place in either the 2 slot or the 4/5 hole. The only problem is that means the Reds will have to find it at one of three "skill" positions; 3B, SS, or C if they can re-sign Choo (and they should do more than everything they can to make that happen) and Hamilton sticks. The problem is that big bats at those three skill positions aren't generally readily available and, when they are, they come at a real price.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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    --Ted Williams

  6. #49
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    He has been this year, but never really has before.

    It's likely not a repeatable skill. He certainly hasn't been doing it in September.
    That's what I am arguing for. BP is hitting the 2 hole now and more often than not, he is being used to lay down sac bunts instead of driving in runs. If we move him to the 3 hole and Votto to the 2 hole then he will be in positions to get those RBIs. I understand that with Ludwick back we can move BP to the 2 hole now. However, I can't imagine how BP isn't mad or Dusty hasn't noticed that we are using the 4th best RBI leader in the NL with 100+ runs batted in to lay down sac bunts nearly every time he gets to the plate.

    My argument is that with Votto in the 2 hole, we will not have to waste that 1 out moving Choo over. Yes, Votto is struggling hitting, but his walk rate and the way teams avoid him would allow for us to have 2 on and no outs. Followed by BP coming to the plate with Bruce on deck. I can definitely see teams pitching around Votto if not intentionally walking him to get to BP. That is pretty much what happened all season when he was batting in the 4 hole and teams challenged him to drive in the runners.

    Again, with the season he is having where he is batting very well with runners on, why not move him back into the RBI position he has excelled at? Also, this solves the issue Buntapolooza too. Finally, Votto's RBI numbers will not be questioned as harshly as our main RBI positions will be filled by guys who given chances to get the RBIs instead of the cra.p Votto is forced to try to hit.
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  7. #50
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    You Can't Steal First Base. I have the antidote for pretty much every baseball truism I come across.

    You're not actually saying anything about Billy Hamilton other than that he's fast. Yeah, we know that. But to replace Choo's performance level, he'll have to be a good sight better than just fast.



    RH or LH doesn't matter. Get good hitters and keep them. Especially for 2013, lineup 'balance' is a non-starter as the Reds have demonstrated that their 2013 performance really doesn't suffer all that much against either RH or LH pitchers. They're one of the top three teams in the NL versus either.



    Why no concern about the RH splits for the remainder of the roster then? I would think that would worry you more considering that teams spend the vast majority of the time facing right-handers.



    And now we've regressed into a wall of text about Batting Average. We've come a long way in figuring out how Runs are actually scored and BA is certainly not a good measure of who does that the best, but let's talk about Batting Average...

    The 2013 Reds lose all of 8 points of BA against LH pitchers versus their RH counterparts. That's it. That's a little bit of nothing and the result is that they score the 2nd most Runs versus LHP in the NL.That means that while LH hitters see a drop in performance versus southpaws, the rest of the team RH component sees a like increase as a group. Versus RH pitchers, some of the RH hitters struggle; which is offset by upticks from guys like Choo, Votto, and Bruce.

    Considering the 2013 results (see: very balanced) fretting about the LH hitter performance against LHP is akin to seeing the shadow of a molehill and mistaking it for a mountain. Ditto for Batting Average.

    The Reds could one more performer to place in either the 2 slot or the 4/5 hole. The only problem is that means the Reds will have to find it at one of three "skill" positions; 3B, SS, or C if they can re-sign Choo (and they should do more than everything they can to make that happen) and Hamilton sticks. The problem is that big bats at those three skill positions aren't generally readily available and, when they are, they come at a real price.



    Talking about batting average isn't a regression in all circumstances. Sometimes it's important to know how often your best hitters actually make production through contact especially when the spot following them in the lineup is followed by a much lesser player. Maybe those better hitters are getting walked so the pitcher can go right after the lesser hitters. Which brings me to the lesser hitters. Are any of them even nearing the ballpark of all star quality to elite quality level of production against lefties? No. Maybe above average that's it. Against righties we have elite offensive players. Against lefties we have above average at best. Average is a part of OBP sure, but while walks are good, hits are great. Let's get a guy who can not only get on base but hit lefties at least an above average level.

    And yes lineup balance does matter because dusty baker is the manger of the reds. He staggers his lefties for the most part and separates our elite level production versus righties and creates a very average lineup against lefties. I want choo back, but realistically speaking, that probably won't happen. I don't think it's too far fetched to say get someone to replace his production and make him right handed so we have a guy that can consistently threaten to do more than walk against lefties and so dusty bats the best hitters in a row without holes in between. If choo is brought back at least try to find a better quality hitter at one of the problem spots so the lineup doesn't go great lefty, hole like this year.

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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Falcon7 View Post
    So what do you think, a 100+ rbi hitter should be batting 7, 8, maybe even 9th or just stick his butt on the bench?
    Especially since this is a murders row lineup...
    I think a guy who doesn't get on base and doesn't have power should bat 6-8th in a lineup, where exactly depends on the rest of the lineup. Frazier and Phillips aren't much different. Catcher should probably bat 8th in the Reds lineup. Ludwick is a wild card. Ideally, he bats 5th behind Bruce, but I can get Frazier or Phillips right this second in the 5th spot because Ludwick isn't exactly what is expected at this point.

    Also, maybe after the season people will realize how good the Reds offense actually was compared to the rest of the league and quit all of the "this offense sucks" stuff. It doesn't. It is quite good.

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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think a guy who doesn't get on base and doesn't have power should bat 6-8th in a lineup, where exactly depends on the rest of the lineup. Frazier and Phillips aren't much different. Catcher should probably bat 8th in the Reds lineup. Ludwick is a wild card. Ideally, he bats 5th behind Bruce, but I can get Frazier or Phillips right this second in the 5th spot because Ludwick isn't exactly what is expected at this point.

    Also, maybe after the season people will realize how good the Reds offense actually was compared to the rest of the league and quit all of the "this offense sucks" stuff. It doesn't. It is quite good.
    Been having some double post problems today, so I hope this isn't a repeat.

    But after the season, absent an offensive spark in the playoffs, I will look at this year's offense as a missed opportunity.

    It's very unusual to have the two best OBP men in the league playing day in and day out for the same team. If Votto and Choo got ample support the offense would have been better than the Cards' offense, a scoring machine.

    Didn't happen. To be continued.

  10. #53
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Talking about batting average isn't a regression in all circumstances. Sometimes it's important to know how often your best hitters actually make production through contact especially when the spot following them in the lineup is followed by a much lesser player. Maybe those better hitters are getting walked so the pitcher can go right after the lesser hitters. Which brings me to the lesser hitters. Are any of them even nearing the ballpark of all star quality to elite quality level of production against lefties? No. Maybe above average that's it. Against righties we have elite offensive players. Against lefties we have above average at best. Average is a part of OBP sure, but while walks are good, hits are great. Let's get a guy who can not only get on base but hit lefties at least an above average level.

    And yes lineup balance does matter because dusty baker is the manger of the reds. He staggers his lefties for the most part and separates our elite level production versus righties and creates a very average lineup against lefties. I want choo back, but realistically speaking, that probably won't happen. I don't think it's too far fetched to say get someone to replace his production and make him right handed so we have a guy that can consistently threaten to do more than walk against lefties and so dusty bats the best hitters in a row without holes in between. If choo is brought back at least try to find a better quality hitter at one of the problem spots so the lineup doesn't go great lefty, hole like this year.
    I've shown you the results. Despite your claims, the Reds have not struggled against LHP in 2013. If you'd look at the actual results, you'd realize that.

    If you looked at the results, you'd also realize that the vast majority of RH hitters for the Reds have made up whatever is lost from the three LH guys. Phillips, Frazier, Mesoraco, Hanigan, and Cozart ALL perform better against LH pitching; making up whatever is lost by Choo/Votto/Bruce (who all still perform well in some or all aspects against LHP).

    Instead of checking what's actually happened, you're stuck in a mode where you think some kind of 'balance' must be meaningful; thus without it the Reds must be in some kind of pickle against southpaws. They're not. They're one of the best performing teams in the NL against LHP; which actually represents less than 30% of the pitchers they face. There's simply no reason to start formulating plans to improve the lineup based on handedness and the acquisition of a RH hitter only makes up for the loss of a LH hitter is the former is actually better than the latter.
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  11. #54
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    I've shown you the results. Despite your claims, the Reds have not struggled against LHP in 2013. If you'd look at the actual results, you'd realize that.

    If you looked at the results, you'd also realize that the vast majority of RH hitters for the Reds have made up whatever is lost from the three LH guys. Phillips, Frazier, Mesoraco, Hanigan, and Cozart ALL perform better against LH pitching; making up whatever is lost by Choo/Votto/Bruce (who all still perform well in some or all aspects against LHP).

    Instead of checking what's actually happened, you're stuck in a mode where you think some kind of 'balance' must be meaningful; thus without it the Reds must be in some kind of pickle against southpaws. They're not. They're one of the best performing teams in the NL against LHP; which actually represents less than 30% of the pitchers they face. There's simply no reason to start formulating plans to improve the lineup based on handedness and the acquisition of a RH hitter only makes up for the loss of a LH hitter is the former is actually better than the latter.
    Why that mode? Reality is why. Reality dusty baker is the reds manager. He staggers his lefties and righties. I'm well aware it shouldn't matter, but the actual manger of the reds doesn't. Also, our right handed hitters are inconsistent and our lefties are average hitters against left handed pitching. I'm saying get a highly productive right handed bat for the middle of the order if choo leaves for a few reasons.

    1. We have a lead off hitter in house that has a super elite speed tool that will always pressure defenses
    2. Choos production will have to be made up elsewhere in the lineup
    3. Versus lefties the reds left handed hitters become average at hitting and we rely on inconsistent players to drive them in.
    4. Dustys propensity to stagger hitters doesn't allow for stacking the best hitters because our best hitters are all lefties.

    So, if choo leaves get a right handed hitter to make up his production that is above average so that dusty will bat our best hitters in order and create more consistent production.

    If choo stays find a righty that is at least solid so that we don't go into elite hitter then hole pattern we've seen this year.

    I'm not saying the reds have a horrible offense, but they are better against righties. They are great but inconsistent at scoring runs. If choo leaves, his production will need to be made up. Getting a righty will make dusty more apt to bat his best hitters in a row because he staggers his lefties. If choo stays, get a better right handed hitter to fill a spot so the lineup is improved as a whole and dusty can put a better hitter between his lefties instead if dividing them with far lesser hitters.
    Last edited by Old school 1983; 09-27-2013 at 05:08 PM.

  12. #55
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Why that mode? Reality is why. Reality dusty baker is the reds manager. He staggers his lefties and righties. I'm well aware it shouldn't matter, but the actual manger of the reds doesn't. Also, our right handed hitters are inconsistent and our lefties are average hitters against left handed pitching.
    And yet, on this Dusty Baker team, Votto/Bruce have recently consistently hit back to back. Baker's actual behavior doesn't support your position, which is the support for your position? Yeah. No.

    I'm saying get a highly productive right handed bat for the middle of the order if choo leaves for a few reasons.

    1. We have a lead off hitter in house that has a super elite speed tool that will always pressure defenses
    Billy Hamilton being fast doesn't automatically mean he belongs in the leadoff slot with or without Choo's presence. The Reds would be well served to remember that. If he shows that he's the guy he was two years ago, then great. Otherwise, they'd best slot him in at #7 or, preferably #8. Might as well make the most out of the pitchers' bunts.

    In short, if Hamilton is making a boatload of Outs, he's not going to be "pressuring" anyone but his own offense.

    2. Choos production will have to be made up elsewhere in the lineup
    That will be pretty difficult, if not impossible, to do without spending a boatload of cash that would be better spent on Choo himself.

    3. Versus lefties the reds left handed hitters become average at hitting and we rely on inconsistent players to drive them in.
    Have you looked at the actual stats or is this another unsupported assumption? Every one of the Reds' RH hitters are much better versus LHP, so I have to assume the latter.

    4. Dustys propensity to stagger hitters doesn't allow for stacking the best hitters because our best hitters are all lefties.

    So, if choo leaves get a right handed hitter to make up his production that is above average so that dusty will bat our best hitters in order and create more consistent production.
    1) You don't replace Choo's 2013 performance with "above average"
    2) I don't see any evidence from you about whether or not the 2013 Reds offense is inconsistent and, if so, why that might be. You didn't know that their performance versus LHP was nearly identical to their vs RHP performance.
    3) If you feel that Baker's propensities (real or imagined) are an issue, then you should be suggesting that they replace Baker; not Choo.

    If choo stays find a righty that is at least solid so that we don't go into elite hitter then hole pattern we've seen this year.

    I'm not saying the reds have a horrible offense, but they are better against righties. They are great but inconsistent at scoring runs. If choo leaves, his production will need to be made up. Getting a righty will make dusty more apt to bat his best hitters in a row because he staggers his lefties. If choo stays, get a better right handed hitter to fill a spot so the lineup is improved as a whole and dusty can put a better hitter between his lefties instead if dividing them with far lesser hitters.
    Again, you're assuming things sans evidence; like Run Scoring inconsistency (and, if it exists, what it may be attributed to), team performance against LHP/RHP (you're flat wrong on this), and the relative value of a RH hitter without regard to whether or not said hitter is actually a better or worse option than whomever he replaces.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  13. #56
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    And yet, on this Dusty Baker team, Votto/Bruce have recently consistently hit back to back. Baker's actual behavior doesn't support your position, which is the support for your position? Yeah. No.



    Billy Hamilton being fast doesn't automatically mean he belongs in the leadoff slot with or without Choo's presence. The Reds would be well served to remember that. If he shows that he's the guy he was two years ago, then great. Otherwise, they'd best slot him in at #7 or, preferably #8. Might as well make the most out of the pitchers' bunts.

    In short, if Hamilton is making a boatload of Outs, he's not going to be "pressuring" anyone but his own offense.



    That will be pretty difficult, if not impossible, to do without spending a boatload of cash that would be better spent on Choo himself.



    Have you looked at the actual stats or is this another unsupported assumption? Every one of the Reds' RH hitters are much better versus LHP, so I have to assume the latter.



    1) You don't replace Choo's 2013 performance with "above average"
    2) I don't see any evidence from you about whether or not the 2013 Reds offense is inconsistent and, if so, why that might be. You didn't know that their performance versus LHP was nearly identical to their vs RHP performance.
    3) If you feel that Baker's propensities (real or imagined) are an issue, then you should be suggesting that they replace Baker; not Choo.



    Again, you're assuming things sans evidence; like Run Scoring inconsistency (and, if it exists, what it may be attributed to), team performance against LHP/RHP (you're flat wrong on this), and the relative value of a RH hitter without regard to whether or not said hitter is actually a better or worse option than whomever he replaces.
    Let's visit reality again. In reality bakers propensity to stagger lefties is not imagined. Batting Bruce after votto is a recent phenomena and bucks the trend dusty has shown most of the time, and from his overall body of work and
    Comments in lineup construction, it's pretty clear dusty likes to stagger his lefties especially against left handed pitching.

    More reality. Baker has a better chance of staying than choo. In imagination land maybe I'd argue the opposite, but reality it is. Furthermore if choo stays Hamilton probably should bat 8 or 9. He should only leadoff if choo goes.

    Also hamiltons speed puts the defense on their toes evey at bat. Anytime he makes contact and not pop up, the defense will have to field the ball perfectly to get him. That's pressure that no one on the reds offers now.

    Also I'd like more than an above average righty to replace choo, but above average would suffice. Look at entire team production. Billy would save runs in center. When he does get on he's a major distraction that's lead to mistake pitches to later batters. Secondly baseball is a team sport. You'd have to make up the production throughout the lineup, not just with one player. Ludwick would ops higher than the left field platoon black hole did this year, and the righty brought in would obviously have to be better than the player he places, and the extra value would go towards making up some of Choos production.

    So if choo goes make up his production elsewhere with a righty.
    If he stays improve a problem position with a righty because dusty would rather stagger his lefties, especially against left handed pitching. And there are no right handed batters on our team that are as consistently good against lefties as votto choo and Bruce are against righties.

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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Steel at this point you're being pretty much contrary. It's a no brainer that I'd like choo to stay. But I'd also like the lineup improved if he does. What's wrong with getting better?

    If he goes I want an at least above average righty bc dusty had shown that most of the time he likes to divide lefties, and with a lefty punishing righty in the middle of lineup that has a high ops, a lot of Choos production will be made up.

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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Steel at this point you're being pretty much contrary.
    This whole conversation started when you made an erroneous claim about the Reds' performance versus LH pitchers. Since then you've veered off to numerous tangents; supporting none of them.

    Yet you think I'm the one who's playing the role of contrarian? Good luck with that.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Can we at least agree that this team sucks offensively, and that Votto's presence in the lineup hasn't prevented that?

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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by miamiredskin View Post
    Can we at least agree that this team sucks offensively, and that Votto's presence in the lineup hasn't prevented that?
    Reds rank in runs in the NL: 3
    Teams in the NL: 15

    Nope, we can't agree that this team sucks offensively.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 09-28-2013 at 01:53 AM. Reason: Typo

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