Tomorrow's lineup should be:
Tomorrow's lineup should be:
4 home games...6 runs.
Piling on stats in blowouts makes for nice stats.
When Bruce knocks in 5 in a 10-0 win, he statistically had a good week rbi-wise.
But when we struggle to score in the other 5 games, it's a bummer.
BP had a nice run, but he is worthless now.
Luddy may be worth less than the platoon that replaced him.
And let's face it, some of those 15 teams are the Cubs, Pads, Marlins, Giants, Phils, Brewers, Mets and the woefully under-performing Nats. Some of them stopped trying to win months ago. Others play in pitcher-friendly ballparks.
Last edited by Old school 1983; 09-28-2013 at 09:18 AM.
If you look into it you'll see that all teams are inconsistent when it comes to scoring runs. You'll also find that those inconsistent games tend to even themselves out. This is why the Pythagoras theorem works as well as it does.
Give me the total runs scored, the total runs allowed, and how many games they played and we can tell you within a couple of games how many wins that team has.
"But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."
I'll play along anyway - maybe a little shake n bake will heat up the bats. This is for the WC game vs. Liriano
1. Phillips (Hiding him here to minimize the chance of him hitting into 20 DPs this year)
A flute with no holes is not a flute. A doughnut with no holes is a danish. -- Zen Philosopher Basho
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Steel, I think our biggest disagreement is over the use of the word neutralized. Bad word choice on my part. The lefties become less potent in terms of production based on hitting, and they don't have a righty that hurts lefties as much as our lefties do righties was my point.
Atlanta Braves: 0 runs 17 1 run 13 2 runs 23 2 runs or less: 53 times
Pirates: 0 runs 12 1 run 19 2 runs 25 2 runs or less: 56 times
Cards: 0 runs 11 1 run 11 2 runs 25 2 runs or less: 47 times
Reds: 0 runs 11 1 run 20 2 runs 22 2 runs or less: 53 times
Saint Louis has an edge in avoiding 1 run scoring games - yet their team counting stats and percentages are no better than the Reds, in many cases worse. A non-repeatable extremely high team RISP is the reason. There is no reason in the world to expect them to repeat that ridiculous RISP next season. The Reds are 2nd in the NL in RISP at .745. The Cards are at .862 as a team. 2 players on the Cards barely exceed that for the season as a whole(Carpenter and Holliday). That is simply not projectable forward. In another thread someone posted similar totals of all teams - the fact is almost all ML teams are around 1/3d of games scoring 2 or fewer runs - give or take a half dozen either way. The Reds are NOT any more inconsistent than other teams. They just seem like it because you follow them on a daily basis.
"If this was a court of law, the cross examination would go after the credibility of the witness." Homer Bailey on Latos snarking on the team after his trade
Right now, there are only 23 guys in MLB putting up a .950 OPS or higher this year with as many as 100 PA versus southpaws this year.
Start filtering out those who perform poorly versus RHP and the list gets smaller. As you appear to have Ludwick and Hamilton already entrenched in the OF with Bruce for 2014 and the Reds are committed to Mes at C, we then have only two "upgrade" positions to look at: 3B and SS. That leaves our criteria at...
1) RH Hitter (or Switch)
2) Projects .950 to 1.000 OPS versus LHP
3) 3B or SS
4) Same or higher overall OPS as replaced positional player
5) Similar defensive value to replaced positional player
The Reds would have to go out and acquire someone like Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera, or David Wright to make that happen OR find the platoon equivalent of that at two vital defensive positions. Needless to say, that's an unbelievably tall order.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
And another thing. I agree with all of your assessments for long term run scoring. Sabermetrics has it down to what leads to winning and creating runs overall. My perspective is for this year, the reds had that down. I've never sweated the reds getting into the playoffs this year. I've been more worried about what they'll do when they'll get there. It's a whole other animal, and stuff that matters or doesn't in the long run can be completely different so I think I've come off as anti sabermetrics, and I'm not. Now going into next year losing Choos OPS scares the crap out if me in terms of long term run scoring. If he doesn't come back, I was suggestions a right handed bat. I see that as the best bet for dusty to stack his best players in the lineup but if push comes to shove, make up that production in any way possible.
One of the best thing that will help the lineup next year is for Frazier and Ludwick to return to 800 OPS form.