Another Lineup Construction Thread

[Red Swagger]

Tomorrow's lineup should be:

Choo
B Hamilton
Votto
Bruce
Frazier
Phillips
Cozart
Mesoraco

[miamiredskin]

4 home games...6 runs.

[miamiredskin]

Reds rank in runs in the NL: 3
Teams in the NL: 15

Nope, we can't agree that this team sucks offensively.

Piling on stats in blowouts makes for nice stats.
When Bruce knocks in 5 in a 10-0 win, he statistically had a good week rbi-wise.
But when we struggle to score in the other 5 games, it's a bummer.
BP had a nice run, but he is worthless now.
Luddy may be worth less than the platoon that replaced him.

And let's face it, some of those 15 teams are the Cubs, Pads, Marlins, Giants, Phils, Brewers, Mets and the woefully under-performing Nats. Some of them stopped trying to win months ago. Others play in pitcher-friendly ballparks.

[Old school 1983]

This whole conversation started when you made an erroneous claim about the Reds' performance versus LH pitchers. Since then you've veered off to numerous tangents; supporting none of them.

Yet you think I'm the one who's playing the role of contrarian? Good luck with that.

It's erroneous to say our best hitters are lefties and their performance, especially Choos is diminished by left handed pitchers. Is it erroneous to say that none of our right handed hitters are anywhere near the caliber of the three lefties I mentioned? Is it erroneous to say that none of our righties consistently hit lefties the way that any of votto choo or Bruce hit righties? Is it erroneous to say that baker has a tendency to stagger his lefties in the lineup causing a situation where one great hitter is followed by an average to subpar hitter? Is it erroneous to say if choo walks the reds have a guy who CAN bat leadoff in Hamilton? Is it erroneous to say Hamilton has elite speed? I'm pretty sure all of that stuff is pretty accurate. And I'm pretty sure if choo leaves his production will need to be made up elsewhere in the lineup bc Hamilton will not be able to make it up on his own. Dusty likes to stagger lefties. A right handed bat he can place between votto and Bruce would make him more apt to stack his best hitters, and make the team less susceptible to the loogy in small sample size situations like the playoffs.

[Old school 1983]

Reds rank in runs in the NL: 3
Teams in the NL: 15

Nope, we can't agree that this team sucks offensively.

This team doesn't suck at scoring runs, they suck at doing it in a consistent basis. Too many huge wins followed by periods of barely being able to score more than 0 to 2 runs a game. In baseball it doesn't always matter so much of how many as much as it does when. If this team was the offensive juggernaut that the overall run total suggests, especially with the pitching they have, I think the reds would be doing more than hanging onto hope to gain home field in a one game play in game. I know there were a lot of injuries that have played into this teams performance, but overall this team could be best described as very good but inconsistent.

[Raisor]

This team doesn't suck at scoring runs, they suck at doing it in a consistent basis. Too many huge wins followed by periods of barely being able to score more than 0 to 2 runs a game. In baseball it doesn't always matter so much of how many as much as it does when. If this team was the offensive juggernaut that the overall run total suggests, especially with the pitching they have, I think the reds would be doing more than hanging onto hope to gain home field in a one game play in game. I know there were a lot of injuries that have played into this teams performance, but overall this team could be best described as very good but inconsistent.

If you look into it you'll see that all teams are inconsistent when it comes to scoring runs. You'll also find that those inconsistent games tend to even themselves out. This is why the Pythagoras theorem works as well as it does.

Give me the total runs scored, the total runs allowed, and how many games they played and we can tell you within a couple of games how many wins that team has.

I

[Cant Touch This]

If you look into it you'll see that all teams are inconsistent when it comes to scoring runs. You'll also find that those inconsistent games tend to even themselves out. This is why the Pythagoras theorem works as well as it does.

Give me the total runs scored, the total runs allowed, and how many games they played and we can tell you within a couple of games how many wins that team has.

Right - it's about timing: who's hot at the right time? (or cold at the wrong time?) The Reds are not trending well at the moment, and I'm not sure there is a lineup Dusty can construct that will ignite a spark.

I'll play along anyway - maybe a little shake n bake will heat up the bats. This is for the WC game vs. Liriano

1. Phillips (Hiding him here to minimize the chance of him hitting into 20 DPs this year)
2. Choo
3. Votto
4. Mesoraco
5. Bruce
6. Frazier
7. Ludwick
8. Cozart

[RedEye]

Can we at least agree that this team sucks offensively, and that Votto's presence in the lineup hasn't prevented that?

I couldn't disagree more with this, actually. The reality is pretty much the exact opposite.

[Old school 1983]

If you look into it you'll see that all teams are inconsistent when it comes to scoring runs. You'll also find that those inconsistent games tend to even themselves out. This is why the Pythagoras theorem works as well as it does.

Give me the total runs scored, the total runs allowed, and how many games they played and we can tell you within a couple of games how many wins that team has.

I

All teams are inconsistent at scoring runs. Definitely. But this reds team go from super hot to almost nonexistent offensively a lot of the time. I understand teams will have their ups and downs but without looking at the exact numbers it seems that they experience extremely high highs followed by periods of extreme drought more than most teams that I can recall off of the top of my head. I don't think the reds suck offensively. That'd be an extremely bad analysis. I do however think there is room for improvement and a slight bit more consistency.

[Old school 1983]

Steel, I think our biggest disagreement is over the use of the word neutralized. Bad word choice on my part. The lefties become less potent in terms of production based on hitting, and they don't have a righty that hurts lefties as much as our lefties do righties was my point.

[RedlegJake]

All teams are inconsistent at scoring runs. Definitely. But this reds team go from super hot to almost nonexistent offensively a lot of the time. I understand teams will have their ups and downs but without looking at the exact numbers it seems that they experience extremely high highs followed by periods of extreme drought more than most teams that I can recall off of the top of my head. I don't think the reds suck offensively. That'd be an extremely bad analysis. I do however think there is room for improvement and a slight bit more consistency.

You think that because you watch the Reds all the time. It's a faulty perception.

Atlanta Braves: 0 runs 17 1 run 13 2 runs 23 2 runs or less: 53 times
Pirates: 0 runs 12 1 run 19 2 runs 25 2 runs or less: 56 times
Cards: 0 runs 11 1 run 11 2 runs 25 2 runs or less: 47 times
Reds: 0 runs 11 1 run 20 2 runs 22 2 runs or less: 53 times

Saint Louis has an edge in avoiding 1 run scoring games - yet their team counting stats and percentages are no better than the Reds, in many cases worse. A non-repeatable extremely high team RISP is the reason. There is no reason in the world to expect them to repeat that ridiculous RISP next season. The Reds are 2nd in the NL in RISP at .745. The Cards are at .862 as a team. 2 players on the Cards barely exceed that for the season as a whole(Carpenter and Holliday). That is simply not projectable forward. In another thread someone posted similar totals of all teams - the fact is almost all ML teams are around 1/3d of games scoring 2 or fewer runs - give or take a half dozen either way. The Reds are NOT any more inconsistent than other teams. They just seem like it because you follow them on a daily basis.

[Old school 1983]

You think that because you watch the Reds all the time. It's a faulty perception.

Atlanta Braves: 0 runs 17 1 run 13 2 runs 23 2 runs or less: 53 times
Pirates: 0 runs 12 1 run 19 2 runs 25 2 runs or less: 56 times
Cards: 0 runs 11 1 run 11 2 runs 25 2 runs or less: 47 times
Reds: 0 runs 11 1 run 20 2 runs 22 2 runs or less: 53 times

Saint Louis has an edge in avoiding 1 run scoring games - yet their team counting stats and percentages are no better than the Reds, in many cases worse. A non-repeatable extremely high team RISP is the reason. There is no reason in the world to expect them to repeat that ridiculous RISP next season. The Reds are 2nd in the NL in RISP at .745. The Cards are at .862 as a team. 2 players on the Cards barely exceed that for the season as a whole(Carpenter and Holliday). That is simply not projectable forward. In another thread someone posted similar totals of all teams - the fact is almost all ML teams are around 1/3d of games scoring 2 or fewer runs - give or take a half dozen either way. The Reds are NOT any more inconsistent than other teams. They just seem like it because you follow them on a daily basis.

Definitely a possibility but it doesn't mean that there isn't room for improvement.

[SteelSD]

Steel, I think our biggest disagreement is over the use of the word neutralized. Bad word choice on my part. The lefties become less potent in terms of production based on hitting, and they don't have a righty that hurts lefties as much as our lefties do righties was my point.

Well, to find that guy, you'd need to find a RH hitter capable of producing a .950 to 1.000 OPS against lefties while also being very productive the other 70% of the time. That's the key- handedness will not matter if the player stinks versus his primary matchup (in this case, RHP).

Right now, there are only 23 guys in MLB putting up a .950 OPS or higher this year with as many as 100 PA versus southpaws this year.

Start filtering out those who perform poorly versus RHP and the list gets smaller. As you appear to have Ludwick and Hamilton already entrenched in the OF with Bruce for 2014 and the Reds are committed to Mes at C, we then have only two "upgrade" positions to look at: 3B and SS. That leaves our criteria at...

1) RH Hitter (or Switch)
2) Projects .950 to 1.000 OPS versus LHP
3) 3B or SS
4) Same or higher overall OPS as replaced positional player
5) Similar defensive value to replaced positional player

The Reds would have to go out and acquire someone like Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera, or David Wright to make that happen OR find the platoon equivalent of that at two vital defensive positions. Needless to say, that's an unbelievably tall order.

[Old school 1983]

Well, to find that guy, you'd need to find a RH hitter capable of producing a .950 to 1.000 OPS against lefties while also being very productive the other 70% of the time. That's the key- handedness will not matter if the player stinks versus his primary matchup (in this case, RHP).

Right now, there are only 23 guys in MLB putting up a .950 OPS or higher this year with as many as 100 PA versus southpaws this year.

Start filtering out those who perform poorly versus RHP and the list gets smaller. As you appear to have Ludwick and Hamilton already entrenched in the OF with Bruce for 2014 and the Reds are committed to Mes at C, we then have only two "upgrade" positions to look at: 3B and SS. That leaves our criteria at...

1) RH Hitter (or Switch)
2) Projects .950 to 1.000 OPS versus LHP
3) 3B or SS
4) Same or higher overall OPS as replaced positional player
5) Similar defensive value to replaced positional player

The Reds would have to go out and acquire someone like Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera, or David Wright to make that happen OR find the platoon equivalent of that at two vital defensive positions. Needless to say, that's an unbelievably tall order.

I agree it is. Finding choo was a tall order too. Walt came through. I'd hate to see choo go, but with ludwick healthy for a full year, his OPS will more than likely be an improvement, and cushion a loss of choo. An .800 to .900 ops would be nice.

And another thing. I agree with all of your assessments for long term run scoring. Sabermetrics has it down to what leads to winning and creating runs overall. My perspective is for this year, the reds had that down. I've never sweated the reds getting into the playoffs this year. I've been more worried about what they'll do when they'll get there. It's a whole other animal, and stuff that matters or doesn't in the long run can be completely different so I think I've come off as anti sabermetrics, and I'm not. Now going into next year losing Choos OPS scares the crap out if me in terms of long term run scoring. If he doesn't come back, I was suggestions a right handed bat. I see that as the best bet for dusty to stack his best players in the lineup but if push comes to shove, make up that production in any way possible.

[AmarilloRed]

One of the best thing that will help the lineup next year is for Frazier and Ludwick to return to 800 OPS form.