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Thread: Another Lineup Construction Thread

  1. #76
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    If you look into it you'll see that all teams are inconsistent when it comes to scoring runs. You'll also find that those inconsistent games tend to even themselves out. This is why the Pythagoras theorem works as well as it does.

    Give me the total runs scored, the total runs allowed, and how many games they played and we can tell you within a couple of games how many wins that team has.

    I
    Pirates have scored 622 and given up 572
    Dodgers have scored 648 and given up 579
    Redlegs have scored 693 and given up 577

    all have played 160 games. who has the worst record?
    Last edited by miamiredskin; 09-28-2013 at 12:58 PM.

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  3. #77
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I couldn't disagree more with this, actually. The reality is pretty much the exact opposite.
    If the Reds offense is so good; and the starting pitching is so good (second best ERA in league); and the bullpen is so good; and the defense is so good -

    Why is the team fifth in W-L record in a fifteen team league needing to play a one-game playoff to make the post-season? And as of today playing that game in Pittsburgh (hope not).

    Is the theory that the Reds are a great team but baseball is random?

    Or is something missing?

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    Norm Chortleton (09-28-2013), Old school 1983 (09-28-2013)

  5. #78
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    [QUOTE=RedlegJake;2979692]You think that because you watch the Reds all the time. It's a faulty perception.

    Atlanta Braves: 0 runs 17 1 run 13 2 runs 23 2 runs or less: 53 times
    Pirates: 0 runs 12 1 run 19 2 runs 25 2 runs or less: 56 times
    Cards: 0 runs 11 1 run 11 2 runs 25 2 runs or less: 47 times
    Reds: 0 runs 11 1 run 20 2 runs 22 2 runs or less: 53 times



    The Reds have plenty of star-power. They have the 2 leading OB guys, 2 of the top 5 RBI guys.
    They have scored 70 more runs than the Pirates this year. Yet they have scored 1 or 0 in the same amount of games. Does that make sense to you?

  6. #79
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Dusty Baker, earlier today:
    People talk about shaking up the lineup, you can shake it up, but it's still the same guys.

  7. #80
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    If the Reds offense is so good; and the starting pitching is so good (second best ERA in league); and the bullpen is so good; and the defense is so good -

    Why is the team fifth in W-L record in a fifteen team league needing to play a one-game playoff to make the post-season? And as of today playing that game in Pittsburgh (hope not).

    Is the theory that the Reds are a great team but baseball is random?

    Or is something missing?
    The Reds run differential is 3rd in the NL, and is that consistent with an elite team. The Reds are firmly above average at hitting, starting pitching, and defense, but seem to have chosen some poor times to give up runs from the bullpen, which is probably the main reason they have slightly underperformed their run differential (ie. probably randomness).

    The Reds are a very good team, unfortunately, the play in a division with one of the few teams with a better run differential, and another good team that has outperformed their abilities (probably because of their strong bullpen).

    If baseball wasn't random, and the team's abilities were evenly distributed, the Reds would likely be one of the 3 division winners. Instead they are in a 1 game playoff.

    To answer your question, there isn't really anything crucial missing. The Reds are a very good team. They aren't a generational team, and none of those exist in MLB at the moment. A very good team gets you into the playoff discussion these days, and thats exactly where the Reds are. A bit bad luck with the quality of the division this year... that is all. That and increased expectations from prior year success, and dissapointment from playoff troubles has made this season seem to be a much bigger struggle than it really has. This is a very good team.

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    RedlegJake (09-28-2013)

  9. #81
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by miamiredskin View Post
    Pirates have scored 622 and given up 572
    Dodgers have scored 648 and given up 579
    Redlegs have scored 693 and given up 577

    all have played 160 games. who has the worst record?
    The Dodgers have a W/L record three games better than their Pythag. The Reds are four games worse. The Pirates are five games better.

    2013 MLB standard deviation for Pythag vs. Actual Wins is about four wins +/-. Every season a couple teams end up above and a couple end up below one standard deviation.

    This year, of the top 11 teams in Run Differential, 10 will make the playoffs; with Texas the only sub-90 Win holdout (89 Wins) currently.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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    Raisor (09-28-2013)

  11. #82
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Maybe it's reactionary, but who cares what the run differential and pythag is if you can't step up and win the games you need to win when it's crunch time? We all knew the reds were good enough to be a play off team but in the first must win test for home field they've failed. Hopefully they can pull it out Tuesday in Pittsburgh.

  12. #83
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    The Reds run differential is 3rd in the NL, and is that consistent with an elite team. The Reds are firmly above average at hitting, starting pitching, and defense, but seem to have chosen some poor times to give up runs from the bullpen, which is probably the main reason they have slightly underperformed their run differential (ie. probably randomness).

    The Reds are a very good team, unfortunately, the play in a division with one of the few teams with a better run differential, and another good team that has outperformed their abilities (probably because of their strong bullpen).

    If baseball wasn't random, and the team's abilities were evenly distributed, the Reds would likely be one of the 3 division winners. Instead they are in a 1 game playoff.

    To answer your question, there isn't really anything crucial missing. The Reds are a very good team. They aren't a generational team, and none of those exist in MLB at the moment. A very good team gets you into the playoff discussion these days, and thats exactly where the Reds are. A bit bad luck with the quality of the division this year... that is all. That and increased expectations from prior year success, and dissapointment from playoff troubles has made this season seem to be a much bigger struggle than it really has. This is a very good team.
    I disagree, I think there is a notch between very good and generational, I think there is a level of championship caliber. The Reds so far this year are not there.

    The reasons can be debated. And we all will after the season. But it's not random, all ten playoff teams are not the same, there are significant differences.

    It will require some real analysis though and an objective look at players who may be beloved but have deficiencies in performance (not necessarily in talent).

    For now, I'm still rooting for the Reds to make the NLCS this year, where I think they belong on talent. After, we'll discuss the ballclub in depth, I'm sure.

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    Old school 1983 (09-28-2013)

  14. #84
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    The Reds are simply not the best team in baseball. There are probably about 5 better.

    The Reds are Championship calibre... ie. they have the skill and players required to wint he championship, but they are one of about 10 teams who have that ability. The Reds have one of the lower chances of doing that at the moment, but they definitely could.

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    Kc61 (09-28-2013)

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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    The Reds are simply not the best team in baseball. There are probably about 5 better.

    The Reds are Championship calibre... ie. they have the skill and players required to wint he championship, but they are one of about 10 teams who have that ability. The Reds have one of the lower chances of doing that at the moment, but they definitely could.
    I don't disagree. But I thought they could be in the top two or three this year. And they haven't so far -- to be continued.

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    Old school 1983 (09-28-2013)

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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I don't disagree. But I thought they could be in the top two or three this year. And they haven't so far -- to be continued.
    Let's hope that losing these games lights a fire under this team and sparks them to a great playoff run.

  19. #87
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Let's hope that losing these games lights a fire under this team and sparks them to a great playoff run.


    In fairness the offense was unified(all high socks) and PUMPED after the Bruce 2B, but then Arroyo killed their buzz today.

    One thing that gets lost in the football mentality of same fans is the old adage that you are only as good as your next day's starting pitcher. That's as far as momentum can take you in baseball.

  20. #88
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    Re: Another Lineup Construction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by PepperJack View Post
    In fairness the offense was unified(all high socks) and PUMPED after the Bruce 2B, but then Arroyo killed their buzz today.

    One thing that gets lost in the football mentality of same fans is the old adage that you are only as good as your next day's starting pitcher. That's as far as momentum can take you in baseball.
    That's very true. Unfortunately for the reds it is football mantality time now. All that matters is Tuesday and they have cueto going which right now is a question mark. It's do or die time. Hopefully we get 2012 cueto that owns the bucs. If that's the case, the reds will be in good shape to win.


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