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Thread: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

  1. #61
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    With runners on base, walks are good. Hits are better. BA tells you who gets more hits, OBP doesn't. BA is a better stat at evaluating who is more productive with runners on base than OBP.
    No, it's actually not.

    2013 MLB Team Correlations w/Runners On:

    BA to Runs Scored: 0.829
    OBP to Runs Scored: 0.894
    SLG to Runs Scored: 0.883
    OPS to Runs Scored: 0.935

    Batting Average is thumped by both OBP and Slugging Percentage, and (of course) OPS.

    And, yes, we know that Hits have more value than Walks. No one has ever stated otherwise. What you haven't stated is that all non-Out events lead to more Runs scored; which is why OBP is actually more informative than Batting Average about who is more productive (and why). SLG is more informative than BA because, unlike a simple ratio of Hits to AB, Slugging Percentage cares about how many bases are actually acquired; which also leads to more runs scoring.

    Atomic may have been a bit strong in his rebuke, but he wasn't wrong.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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  4. #62
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    This chart explains why.

    http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html

    Simply put, a walk is only as good as a hit with the bases empty. With runners on, a hit is always worth more than a walk, sometimes worth 7 times more runs than a walk.

    With runners on base, walks are good. Hits are better. BA tells you who gets more hits, OBP doesn't. BA is a better stat at evaluating who is more productive with runners on base than OBP.
    OBP doesn't equal walks. It's not a walk percentage.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  6. #63
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    New School becoming as dogmatic as Old School.
    Well said.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  7. #64
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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    No, it's actually not.

    2013 MLB Team Correlations w/Runners On:

    BA to Runs Scored: 0.829
    OBP to Runs Scored: 0.894
    SLG to Runs Scored: 0.883
    OPS to Runs Scored: 0.935

    Batting Average is thumped by both OBP and Slugging Percentage, and (of course) OPS.

    And, yes, we know that Hits have more value than Walks. No one has ever stated otherwise. What you haven't stated is that all non-Out events lead to more Runs scored; which is why OBP is actually more informative than Batting Average about who is more productive (and why). SLG is more informative than BA because, unlike a simple ratio of Hits to AB, Slugging Percentage cares about how many bases are actually acquired; which also leads to more runs scoring.

    Atomic may have been a bit strong in his rebuke, but he wasn't wrong.
    Of course, in a big broad, general sense, OBP will always be more predictive than BA because it contains more information.

    However, the big, broad, general sense is rather useless to most baseball fans. The purpose of stats is to help us evaluate players, individual players. There is very little practical knowledge gained from knowing the correlation ratio (is that even a thing? I'm not a statistician) of certain events to runs scored. What is practical knowledge is how well a certain player produces in a certain situations. That information helps up build rosters, build lineups, and make in game decisions. You know, things that determine how games are won.

    Two players have an OBP of .350. One OBP is based on a .300 BA, one on .250 BA. According to their OBP, they will produce the same with runners on base. However, their BA tells us something different. That the player with an .350 OBP and a .300 BA will likely be more productive than the player with a .350 OBP and an .250 BA.

    There is one other much more important way that BA is still valuable. It's easy to calculate. It allows the average fan to understand and appreciate the game without breaking out his scientific calculator. It's not as if BA gives us the wrong information, it just doesn't give us as much information as other stats.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #65
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    How many people are calculating batting average with the raw numbers?

    It's not like you need a Masters at MIT to calculate OBP or SLG.

    Personally I just look them up at baseball-reference.com and leave the math to them.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post

    Two players have an OBP of .350. One OBP is based on a .300 BA, one on .250 BA. According to their OBP, they will produce the same with runners on base. However, their BA tells us something different. That the player with an .350 OBP and a .300 BA will likely be more productive than the player with a .350 OBP and an .250 BA.

    .
    First point: you'll need to define what you mean by "more productive"

    Second: go check out the stat lines for Adam Dunn and Sean Casey from 2004. Then get back to us.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  10. #67
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    First point: you'll need to define what you mean by "more productive"

    Second: go check out the stat lines for Adam Dunn and Sean Casey from 2004. Then get back to us.
    Actually it's closer than you'd think.
    Dunn
    .266/.388 .956 147 OPS+ 4.6 WAR
    Casey
    .324/.381 .915 137 OPS+ 4.3 WAR

    Probably each player's best year overall, and it illustrates the point because their .OBP is almost identical. Using the logic of the OP, the better player is Casey. But, you'd lose out on Dunn's 46 homers, higher OPS, higher OPS+, slightly better WAR. And in hindsight, knowing each player, Dunn was much the more dangerous hitter in their respective primes. I was surprised that it was even this close but Casey never had another year approaching 2004 overall, while Dunn had several years close to 2004's numbers, making the contrast more stark in the long view. Still, for this single year it was not as silly an exercise as I thought it would be.

  11. #68
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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    First point: you'll need to define what you mean by "more productive"

    Second: go check out the stat lines for Adam Dunn and Sean Casey from 2004. Then get back to us.
    1. Produces more runs.

    2. I said "will likely be more productive." Plus, my point was about a players production with runners in base. I can't look at their basic stat lines and determine who was more productive with runners on base. If Dunn is walking most often with runners on base, and Casey is getting hits then Casey would be more productive. But if Dunn is also hitting more home runs, than it's possible Dunn is more productive.

    3. My point is that BA has ultility, not that it's perfect. It's utility, is that when added to OBP, it helps us understand individual players production better.

    If you don't like BA, great, don't use it. Mock it all you want. Just don't insult others who like it and still find use for it.
    Last edited by 757690; 09-28-2013 at 10:47 AM.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  13. #69
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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Of course, in a big broad, general sense, OBP will always be more predictive than BA because it contains more information.

    However, the big, broad, general sense is rather useless to most baseball fans. The purpose of stats is to help us evaluate players, individual players. There is very little practical knowledge gained from knowing the correlation ratio (is that even a thing? I'm not a statistician) of certain events to runs scored. What is practical knowledge is how well a certain player produces in a certain situations. That information helps up build rosters, build lineups, and make in game decisions. You know, things that determine how games are won.
    It's 2013. We know how Runs are created. We know how games are won and lost. There's no mystery to this. It's not magic. And there is a metric TON of "practical knowledge" to be gained by understanding what behaviors correlate best with what results.

    Baseball is a game of opportunity and distance in both the macro and micro senses. Avoiding Outs and Acquiring Bases. This is OBP and SLG; feeding into OPS. Teams that do both better score more Runs than other teams. Players who do better at both are more valuable to their teams than others across all situations.

    The understanding of the relative value of OBP and SLG is not a recent discovery, btw:

    "If the baseball world is to accept this new system of analyzing the game - and eventually it will - it must first give up preconceived ideas," wrote <Branch> Rickey, at the time the top executive of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He continued, "Two measurable factors - on-base average and power - gauge the overall offensive worth of an individual."

    http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/01/sp...l/01score.html

    The year was 1954 and I assume you've heard of Branch Rickey. People didn't necessarily want to listen then either. Oh well.

    Two players have an OBP of .350. One OBP is based on a .300 BA, one on .250 BA. According to their OBP, they will produce the same with runners on base. However, their BA tells us something different. That the player with an .350 OBP and a .300 BA will likely be more productive than the player with a .350 OBP and an .250 BA.
    1) If BA was as informative as you suggest, you wouldn't need to use OBP in your example.

    2) You don't have enough data to draw a conclusion about who actually would likely be more productive. You'd need SLG for that. If the .250 Hitter's SLG is higher, you've drawn an incorrect conclusion.

    3) If you assume that the two players have identical SLG numbers, the .250 hitter has hidden value due to a higher IsoD and IsoP (Isolated Disciplne and Isolated Power); meaning that he's more "slump proof" due to more developed secondary skill sets.

    The last item highlights the only actual good use for Batting Average; the identification of secondary skill sets that aid in player projections.

    There is one other much more important way that BA is still valuable. It's easy to calculate. It allows the average fan to understand and appreciate the game without breaking out his scientific calculator. It's not as if BA gives us the wrong information, it just doesn't give us as much information as other stats.
    Actually, "easy" doesn't mean "good". Things like OBP/SLG/OPS don't really have to be calculated ad hoc. As Raisor implied, those stats are listed everywhere at this point. But even if they weren't, citing the simplicity of calculating BA isn't relevant when we're talking about the quality of the metric. At this point, there are more advanced metrics than OPS that are even better indicators of player performance. They're more complicated than OPS; which doesn't make them somehow worse than Batting Average.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    It's 2013. We know how Runs are created. We know how games are won and lost. There's no mystery to this. It's not magic. And there is a metric TON of "practical knowledge" to be gained by understanding what behaviors correlate best with what results.

    Baseball is a game of opportunity and distance in both the macro and micro senses. Avoiding Outs and Acquiring Bases. This is OBP and SLG; feeding into OPS. Teams that do both better score more Runs than other teams. Players who do better at both are more valuable to their teams than others across all situations.

    The understanding of the relative value of OBP and SLG is not a recent discovery, btw:


    http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/01/sp...l/01score.html

    The year was 1954 and I assume you've heard of Branch Rickey. People didn't necessarily want to listen then either. Oh well.



    1) If BA was as informative as you suggest, you wouldn't need to use OBP in your example.

    2) You don't have enough data to draw a conclusion about who actually would likely be more productive. You'd need SLG for that. If the .250 Hitter's SLG is higher, you've drawn an incorrect conclusion.

    3) If you assume that the two players have identical SLG numbers, the .250 hitter has hidden value due to a higher IsoD and IsoP (Isolated Disciplne and Isolated Power); meaning that he's more "slump proof" due to more developed secondary skill sets.

    The last item highlights the only actual good use for Batting Average; the identification of secondary skill sets that aid in player projections.



    Actually, "easy" doesn't mean "good". Things like OBP/SLG/OPS don't really have to be calculated ad hoc. As Raisor implied, those stats are listed everywhere at this point. But even if they weren't, citing the simplicity of calculating BA isn't relevant when we're talking about the quality of the metric. At this point, there are more advanced metrics than OPS that are even better indicators of player performance. They're more complicated than OPS; which doesn't make them somehow worse than Batting Average.
    Your fighting an imaginary foe.

    I don't disagree with much of what you said in this post. However, nothing in this post contradicts anything I have posted.

    BA has value. It's not the most valuable stat, but it still can be used to help us understand and evaluate players. In some instances, BA helps us learn more about OBP than just OBP on it's own. It doesn't tell us everything, but it helps.

    wOBA is better than OPB and SLG, but that doesn't mean that OBP and SLG are worthless and need to be discarded. Likewise, OBP and SLG are better than just BA by itself, but that doesn't mean that BA is worthless and needs to be discarded, especially since BA is an essential element of both OBP and SLG.

    My main point is that there is nothing wrong with using BA to evaluate players. So many advanced stat fans correctly criticize some fans who want to ignore WAR because it's flawed, but at the same time want to ignore BA because it's flawed. Not being a perfect or even the best stat doesn't mean it's useless.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  15. #71
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    I think I may like to read some of SteelSD's posts, but they're all 2,000 words long.

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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Likewise, OBP and SLG are better than just BA by itself, but that doesn't mean that BA is worthless and needs to be discarded, especially since BA is an essential element of both OBP and SLG.
    Somewhere along sabermetric lane, being curious about how a player created wins, value, runs, etc. became an archaic, tobacco-spitting waste of time. Don't get it either.

  17. #73
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Your fighting an imaginary foe.

    I don't disagree with much of what you said in this post. However, nothing in this post contradicts anything I have posted.
    You mean like when you posted:

    BA is a better stat at evaluating who is more productive with runners on base than OBP.
    That's was flat out wrong when you first posted it and it's still wrong.

    BA has value. It's not the most valuable stat, but it still can be used to help us understand and evaluate players. In some instances, BA helps us learn more about OBP than just OBP on it's own. It doesn't tell us everything, but it helps.
    As I noted in my previous post, the only value to BA is when used as a baseline to determine IsoD and IsoP (both useful in projection systems). But that's pretty much the extent of BA's usefulness. Oh, it certainly tells us "how" someone's OBP is constructed, but issues pop up consistently due to folks thinking that the "how" is incredibly relevant, which is generally the erroneous product of a style bias, personal taste, and what our little league coaches told us. Vicious cycle that is.

    wOBA is better than OPB and SLG, but that doesn't mean that OBP and SLG are worthless and need to be discarded. Likewise, OBP and SLG are better than just BA by itself, but that doesn't mean that BA is worthless and needs to be discarded, especially since BA is an essential element of both OBP and SLG.

    My main point is that there is nothing wrong with using BA to evaluate players. So many advanced stat fans correctly criticize some fans who want to ignore WAR because it's flawed, but at the same time want to ignore BA because it's flawed. Not being a perfect or even the best stat doesn't mean it's useless.
    Using examples of more advanced metrics is simply a further indictment of the relative uselessness of Batting Average as a performance measurement. As we go up the chain of correlation to actual Run Scoring, the stuff behind gets left further and further in the dust. We're far enough that chain to discard something as archaic as Batting Average.

    And to be clear, Batting Average is not "flawed". It measures exactly what it's supposed to measure. The issue with BA as a performance metric is relevance (it's a bottom-feeder in a relevance chain); not accuracy.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  18. #74
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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    I think I may like to read some of SteelSD's posts, but they're all 2,000 words long.
    I blame Raisor.

    Well, and nate...

    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  19. #75
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Joey needs 6 hits in the Bucs series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post

    And to be clear, Batting Average is not "flawed". It measures exactly what it's supposed to measure. The issue with BA as a performance metric is relevance (it's a bottom-feeder in a relevance chain); not accuracy.
    Batting average is flawed. You get no damage for a sac fly because "it was on purpose", but if ground out to the right side and plate the run, "it wasn't on purpose" and your batting average gets dinged. Scoring errors/hits can lead to swings in your average as well.

    The rest of your post.... yep.

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