Baseball America top prospects by League

[dougdirt]

The Reds seem to have three really big projects on their hands in pitching - Garrett, Guillon and Travieso. All three have high ceilings. All three need a lot of development. Doug - which do you like best in terms of who you'd bet on most likely to succeed in reaching near their potential? Not necessarily right away but eventually.

Travieso and Garrett have much bigger arms than Guillon does. I would bet the most on Travieso. He has control of his pitches. The other two really don't. With three guys who all have question marks on their resumes, give me the guy who can throw strikes with consistency.

[redsof72]

I agree that Seth is not a toolsy guy, though as I have pointed out, there is power potential. For those who have been to Dayton, you have seen the awning just left of straightaway center. There is rarely a homer hit in that area, below that awning, it is a deep part of the park. Once a season, someone hits one on top of the awning. Seth hit one, in a game, that actually cleared the awning. He needs to learn to recognize pitches he can turn on and pull and if he ever does that, he will become a 25+ homer guy.

Tools aside, his baseball skills are outstanding. He is a tough kid who is hungry to keep getting better. He is a quiet guy with an old school approach to baseball. He plays everyday and the trainer told me his pain threshold is off the charts. He was an all state quarterback in high school and excellent student. Some guys are just winners. This is one. His college coach did not offer a scholarship until the last possible minute, yet he became a starter as a freshmen and later was a key ingredient in a national title at the U of Arizona. His college coach called him the best defensive third basemen he had ever seen.

This player will not be a top 10 guy on many lists. But I saw how he came to work and to improve every day. I put my money on players who want to put in the hours to get better. You know, kind of like the guy playing first base at GABP. This kid is not a sure thing, but the organization would be better with more like him.

[mdccclxix]

I have to say do love the back story on this SMB.

[Rojo]

I think everyone knows that I love big tools, even if you are just flashing them every now and again.

Dude.

[Superdude]

This player will not be a top 10 guy on many lists. But I saw how he came to work and to improve every day. I put my money on players who want to put in the hours to get better. You know, kind of like the guy playing first base at GABP. This kid is not a sure thing, but the organization would be better with more like him.

Seems to me it's less of a tools game than it was ten years ago. SMB plays plus defense, appears to have good contact and OB skills, and even if his power never improves, he's got plenty to be an above average third basemen provided those other skills don't disappear as he moves up. He's got a ways to go and isn't young, but the pendulum has swung to players like Mejias-Brean IMO.

[*BaseClogger*]

Seems to me it's less of a tools game than it was ten years ago.

Defense is the toolsy side of the ball isn't it? Combine that with pitchers throwing harder than ever with record amount of strikeouts and I'd say it's a toolsy era for baseball...

[redsof72]

I think the biggest thing holding him back on the prospect lists is going to be the fact that he was 22 in a low-A league and, while he played extremely well, he did not completely look like a man among boys. Baseball America and others would like to see a 22 year old in a low-A league either totally dominate, or have a degree of athleticism that screams "untapped potential," or the raw athletic ability to lead you to think that there is a whole lot more there that could eventually come out that we are not yet seeing.

Seth actually has some tools. He has an excellent arm, fields extremely well, hits for average, and has raw power that has not shown up yet in games. He just isn't super fluid in terms of movement skills. He is 6'2", 216. He is a thicker Frazier with similar athleticism.

I have said for a long time that many observers are out of touch with the standard of competition at the Low-A level. Long gone are the days when you could expect that most any player who was productive at LSU, Texas, Cal State Fullerton, etc. would immediately come into the Midwest League and dominate. The league is now filled with players from top tier college programs drafted in the top 10 rounds who put up mediocre numbers in the Midwest League. Just look at some of the Dayton players in 2013 who put up huge numbers in 2012 at places like UCLA, South Carolina, and Florida. Other teams have similar cases.

The gap between top tier college baseball and low-A pro ball is huge at this point. I have asked why, talking to scouting directors, players, and the few pro coaches who move from the college ranks to the minors. The most common answer is that the influx of blue chip international and American high school talent into the minors (players who bypassed college) has raised the level of play. Another common thought is that the depth of pitching in the minors, with 12 guys on a staff that are highly competitive, is light years ahead of what college hitters are facing when they get at-bats against a program's eighth or ninth best pitcher, allowing them to put up bloated .300+ averages despite the fact that they do not hit nearly that well against the pitchers on those colleges staffs who will be drafted.

Point being: Mejias-Brean was 22 in a low-A league, but that is not as much of a red flag as it was 15 years ago.

[mace]

He just isn't super fluid in terms of movement skills.

Oddly, I think this might be the line I've been looking for. I was puzzled by the discussion of Mejias-Brean not being toolsy. To me, that speaks of athleticism. I seem to recall (couldn't find it) something about displays of freakish athletic ability that he put on at Arizona. Maybe it was back flips or some such. And extraordinary, if only occasional, power. He has also shown contact and defensive skills. 72 notes that he has an outstanding arm. I guess he might be lacking a bit in speed, but it seems like that's the only thing left, tools-wise. If he looks awkward in his movements, though, I suppose that could explain it. It could make him appear as though the game doesn't come to him naturally.

(Incidentally, while running through a quick search on SMB's athleticism, I found that he once bowled a 278. I'm not saying that makes him an athlete, but it might make him a good running mate for BP.)

[Superdude]

Defense is the toolsy side of the ball isn't it? Combine that with pitchers throwing harder than ever with record amount of strikeouts and I'd say it's a toolsy era for baseball...

Hit, power, speed, arm, field. I was just talking more about the general prospect use of the term, where if a guy doesn't project to have 25+ homerun power, he gets tagged as a low ceiling type. With pitching as dominant as it is, the simple act of grinding out good at bats consistently has to be valued more IMO. It doesn't take 30 homers to be a superstar in 2013.

[mdccclxix]

Looking back briefly at 22 y/o Midwest League players, some Reds pop out:

Stubbs
Heisey
Cozart
Phipps
Justin Turner
Chris Dickerson
Hannigan
Sappelt

Others include:
Scott Sizemore
Brennan Boesch
Nick Hundley
Tyler Greene
Brendan Ryan
Ian Kinsler (destroyed at 1.157 OPS)

Lot's of others of course didn't make an appearance in mlb, much less an impact.

[mdccclxix]

^^I think this list gives a pretty good target expectation for SMB. Solid regular with defensive prowess. At 3b, that is increasingly hard to find.

Did Doug say they asked him to try catcher?

[texasdave]

SMB reminds me of a player that would fit in nicely into the Cardinals lineup one day. That's good enough for me.

[redsof72]

22 in the MWL--a few others: Todd Frazier, Mitch Moreland, Jason Bay, Josh Willingham, Ryan Theriot, Lyle Overbay, and Khris Davis. David Freese and Will Venable were 23 in the MWL.

So the 2012 Reds basically could have five guys of the eight in the lineup who were 22 in the MWL with Frazier, Cozart, Hanigan, Stubbs, and sometimes Heisey. Bruce was 19 in the MWL. Votto was 19-20. Phillips was 18-19 in the SAL. Of course, the first five guys, like Mejias-Brean, were college drafts. The last three were high school picks.

Catching experiment was dropped, I believe.