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Thread: Baseball America top prospects by League

  1. #31
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    I listed my top 10 at the end of the season this way and mentioned that positions 8-10 could draw many candidates:

    1) Stephenson
    2) Hamilton (boom or bust prospect)
    3) Lorenzen
    4) Winker
    5) Ervin
    6) Lively
    7) Y. Rodriguez
    8) Mejias-Brean
    9) Rogers
    10) Arias

    I acknowledge the fact that Mejias-Brean and Rogers will not be in most top 10's other than mine. Rogers is a Lecure-type pitcher and even though Sam has outperformed most of the guys who were ahead of him on the prospect lists when he was at Rogers' stage of his development, Lecure was never the type of pitcher that was going to get ranked highly on the lists. Mejias-Brean also is not the type of player who will get a lot of attention on the lists, but in my opinion, he will make himself into a good major league player.

    For now, I have Winker higher than Ervin, although I have said that we really don't know what we have with Ervin yet and won't until he goes through a full season and pitchers start working his weaknesses as a hitter. Ervin clearly has better raw tools than Winker. However, watching them both play on the same field, Winker was the better player, and considering he is two years younger, to me, that places him higher. Looking forward to seeing Ervin in 2014 to really get a fair look.
    Last edited by redsof72; 10-14-2013 at 04:32 PM.


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  3. #32
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Outside of Arias, I'm not sure who'll make 8-10 on Reds prospects lists. No way I'd put Corcino or Travieso in there. Contreras and Rogers. Maybe Chacin as a sleeper?

    I'm also curious to see if some buzz develops around Jose Ortiz. I suspect the ratings folks will want to see him put up numbers in full-season ball, but his Billings performance at age 19 is awfully hard to ignore.
    Agree on Ortiz. I almost mentioned him earlier but thought folks might consider it premature.

    I believe that Barnhart is a pretty legitimate top 10. Great defensive skills as a catcher, and hits fairly well left-handed (.754 OPS this year, with a .380 OBP). He kind of reminds me of Cozart as a prospect. Not sexy with the bat, but not too bad, either, and very good at a premium position.
    Last edited by mace; 10-14-2013 at 04:29 PM.

  4. #33
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    I would not completely give up on Travieso yet. He did hit 96 in a few games this summer at age 19. My guess is Baseball America ranks him in that 8-10 window based on the chance that he rediscovers the consistent velocity that scouts saw just prior to the 2012 draft. I am not ready to write him off as a prospect, but agree that for a 14th overall pick, you would like to have seen more electric stuff.

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  6. #34
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    At this point I think a lot of people would be more surprised by him making the majors as opposed to not making the majors.

  7. #35
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    neither is Barnhart but the Reds aren't exactly flush with prospects if you look at a combination of ceiling + some success. If ALL you look at is ceiling then Garrett, Guillon, Arias and a couple others move up a lot and Rogers, Barnhart, SMB move down. A lot of the high ceiling guys like Garrett, Travieso, Arias etc have been pretty lackluster performance wise. Of course, I guess you could argue the legitimancy of whether the Reds actually have ten "top" prospects at all.
    I could at least see Barnhart getting the love there. Good defense at a premium position and he can hold his own with the bat. Right now, Mejias-Brean has the defense, but his bat isn't enough right now to be a starter. He needs to tap into the power more.

  8. #36
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    Also, I think a ton of people are still really sleeping on Travieso, especially among the Reds own prospects. Aside from Stephenson, I would line him up with any other pitcher in the system and lean towards taking him. I saw him hit 97 MPH several times this year. Arms like that don't come along all that often.

    There were times where he didn't sniff that velocity in a game either. He is an incredibly young arm though, younger than most other pitchers his age because of how he was used in high school. Inconsistent, but lots of upside there. I wouldn't think about having a reliever ahead of him at this point.

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  10. #37
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    From May 17 through the end of the season, roughly the final 75 percent of the season, Mejias-Brean led the entire league in OPS at .917. He hit .334/.407/.511 with 10 homers and 30 doubles and 62 RBI over nearly four months of a five month season.

    Travieso should not be written off based on potential, not what he did in 2013. He averaged 91 and there were 15 guys with better stuff in the organization including unheralded guys like Jackson Stephens. But I agree that since he has thrown much harder, he should get the benefit of the doubt that he might get back to that form.

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  12. #38
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    I like Guillon a lot more than Travieso. I think if he can quell his control issues, he can move pretty quickly.

  13. #39
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    I'll take my shot at 8-10

    8. Nick Travieso
    9. Junior Arias
    10. Amir Garrett
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  14. #40
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    I believe that Barnhart is a pretty legitimate top 10. Great defensive skills as a catcher, and hits fairly well left-handed (.754 OPS this year, with a .380 OBP). He kind of reminds me of Cozart as a prospect. Not sexy with the bat, but not too bad, either, and very good at a premium position.
    If he can keep up the OB despite not having much power, and mix that with quality defensive skills, then he'll be Ryan Hanigan 2.0. Nothing wrong with that.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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  16. #41
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    I would not completely give up on Travieso yet. He did hit 96 in a few games this summer at age 19. My guess is Baseball America ranks him in that 8-10 window based on the chance that he rediscovers the consistent velocity that scouts saw just prior to the 2012 draft. I am not ready to write him off as a prospect, but agree that for a 14th overall pick, you would like to have seen more electric stuff.
    I wouldn't write him off. I just wouldn't put him in a top 10 until he shows show consistency. Right now he's hard to to project. I would assume he's back into Dayton's rotation to start next season.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  17. #42
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    I like Barnhart a lot - just saying he isn't a high ceiling prospect that some people want in a top ten list. Sometimes I think guys like him, who are more skilled in the baseball sense than the raw athletic talent sense, get short shrift. I also think SMB has a much higher ceiling than Barnhart. A pitcher of like standing is Sharky Rogers - he can pitch. His pitching skills and ability outweigh his raw stuff - which is decent but not overwhelming. Still, his ability to just plain pitch in the best sense of the word may carry him farther than a lot of more talented arms. I wish the Reds had a half dozen more guys like them closer to AAA. Cheap solid role players and back of rotation guys.
    99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...

  18. #43
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'll take my shot at 8-10

    8. Nick Travieso
    9. Junior Arias
    10. Amir Garrett
    The Garrett situation...I guess if playing basketball is what makes him happy, great. He may look back someday and see it differently. He will not be on the field again until around the first of June. He has great potential but he is a project, a long long way to go. Hard for a guy that has not played since middle school and is only a baseball player for three months out of the year to compete with guys who are developing their games throughout the year. He will be 24 before he commits to baseball full time. You watch him pitch and you see a guy that has great potential but has no idea how to handle the mental part of the game...how to make necessary adjustments, how to maintain his emotions, how to pitch on days when he does not have his best stuff, how to repeat his delivery, how to set up a hitter. How could he know those things?

    Of all guys who would benefit from instructional league, mini camp, game experience, he is the guy. But he is not getting any of that.

    If he was fully committed, you are darn right he is a top 10. A team comes along and offers a kid with a great arm and body a million bucks to play, great, he will play for three months out of the year and take the million.

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  20. #44
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    From May 17 through the end of the season, roughly the final 75 percent of the season, Mejias-Brean led the entire league in OPS at .917. He hit .334/.407/.511 with 10 homers and 30 doubles and 62 RBI over nearly four months of a five month season.

    Travieso should not be written off based on potential, not what he did in 2013. He averaged 91 and there were 15 guys with better stuff in the organization including unheralded guys like Jackson Stephens. But I agree that since he has thrown much harder, he should get the benefit of the doubt that he might get back to that form.
    SMB is a solid guy, and he has some power potential, but he hit 6 home runs over a 10 game span and then over the other 120 games of the year he hit 5. For a 22-year-old, I like to see a little more power than that before jumping on board to put a guy that high. I think everyone knows that I love big tools, even if you are just flashing them every now and again. I didn't really see that with SMB on the offensive side of the ball. I saw a bunch of solid skills that for the most part showed up every day.

    With Travieso, consistency was an issue. Not too surprising given his history though. I always expected him to be a project, so perhaps it is why I like him more than a lot of people who want to look at him like most other pitchers his age.

  21. #45
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball America top prospects by League

    The Reds seem to have three really big projects on their hands in pitching - Garrett, Guillon and Travieso. All three have high ceilings. All three need a lot of development. Doug - which do you like best in terms of who you'd bet on most likely to succeed in reaching near their potential? Not necessarily right away but eventually.
    99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...


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