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Thread: Reds stats through 162 games, 2013

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    Reds stats through 162 games, 2013

    Reds finish 6-6, lost final five games, finish seven behind Cards and four behind Pirates, but four ahead of Nats to win the second NL Wild Card slot and will play at Pittsburgh one game playoff.

    Reds finish at 90-72 fifth best record in NL, with a RS/RA differential of +109 third best RS/RA in NL. ESPN expected W/L of 95-67 so Reds actual record four games worse than "pythag." In 2012, Reds were 97-65 for the second best NL record, with RS/RA of +81, won division by nine games with RS/RA fourth best in league. ESPN expected W-L in 2012 was 91-71, so Reds were six games better than "pythag."

    Reds in 2012 were 31-21 in one-run games and 7-7 in extra innings. In 2013 Reds 27-22 in one-run games and 13-9 in extra innings. In 2012 Reds were 49-30 in Central division, this year 40-36. Reds were 55-30 against teams below .500 this year, but were 35-42 against teams .500 or better. In 2012 Reds were 57-24 against below .500 clubs. 2012, Reds were 40-36 against teams finishing at or above .500.

    Reds were 50-31 at home and 47-34 on the road last year; this year were 49-31 at home, 41-41 on road (counting the SF doubleheader game as road).

    Offense - Reds finished with .249/.327/.391/.718 line for 2013. BA was tied for 8th-9th in NL; OBP was second in NL; SLG was tenth in the NL; OPS was fifth best in NL. Last year Reds were .251/.315/.411/.726. Last year BA was ninth in NL; OBP was twelfth; SLG was sixth; OPS was sixth.

    Last year Reds had 1377 hits, 172 homers, 481 walks, 498 extra base hits. This year Reds had 1370 hits, 155 homers, 585 walks, 449 extra base hits.
    Last year Reds scored 669 runs, ninth most in NL, trailed first place Brewers by 107.
    This year Reds scored 698 runs, third most in NL, trailed first place Cards by 85.

    This year Reds wRC+ was 96, sixth best in NL. wOBA was .315 fifth best.
    Last year Reds wRC+ was 93, eighth best in NL. wOBA was .314 seventh best.

    This year batting left Reds .269/.373/.435/.808
    This year batting right Reds .233/.288/.356/.643
    Reds OBP batting left led NL this year, batting right OBP last in NL.

    This year batting against lefties Reds .241/.317/.392/.709. OPS fifth in NL.
    This year batting against righties Reds .252/.331/.390/.722. OPS tied for sixth-seventh in NL.
    In 2012, Reds OPS against lefties .770 fourth, against righties .710 tenth in NL.

    RISP, 2012, Reds OPS .722 eighth in NL; RISP two outs .634, fifteenth.
    RISP, 2013, Reds OPS .744 second in NL; RISP two outs ..664, eighth.
    Cards .821 RISP two outs, .865 RISP, very outstanding.

    Individually, Bruce third in NL in homers with 30, Bruce second in NL with 109 RBI, Phillips fourth with 103, Votto and Choo first and second in OBP (qualified batters), Votto fourth in OPS (qualified batters), Votto sixth in WAR (ESPN), Bruce 15th in WAR (ESPN), Votto tenth in BA .305, Choo and Votto second and third in pitches per PA, Choo with 26 HBP led league (Frazier tied for fourth), Bruce second in extra base hits with 74, Arroyo most sac bunts with 16, Cozart tied for second with 13, Cozart tied for sac flies lead w/10, Votto and Choo led league in walks with 135 and 112, Votto 19 IBBs tied for NL most, Bruce 13 third. Choo tied for sixteenth in league with 20 steals. Hamilton 13 steals in a very short stint.

    Pitching -- Reds finished with 3.38 team ERA fourth in NL, leader Braves were 3.18. In 2012 Reds were 3.34 tied for second-third in NL just .01 behind leader Nats. Last year Reds starters were 3.64 fourth in the NL; this year Reds starters were 3.43 third best in NL. In 2013 Reds bullpen ERA was 3.29 fourth best in the NL, big improvement at the end of the season. In 2012, Reds bullpen was 2.65 best in the NL. Last 30 days of 2013 season Reds bullpen top ERA in NL at 2.03 in 93 innings.

    Reds team FIP was 4.41 over the last 30 days of 2013, worst in the NL. Starters at 4.84, fourteenth in that period. Relievers FIP in that period fifth best in NL 3.65. Team pitching WAR (Fangraphs) for last thirty days was 1.0, fourteenth in NL. Overall, Reds team FIP for the season was ninth in NL at 3.81 and xFIP was 3.68 sixth best. Pitching WAR was 14.0 eighth in NL. Big drop in WAR at the end -- was 14.9, third in NL at last report after 150 games. In 2012 Reds FIP was fourth-fifth in league at 3.72, xFIP was 3.80 fifth in NL, and pitching WAR was 19.6 second in NL.

    Looking at the fall off in pitching WAR from 2012-2013, last season the Reds starters pitching WAR was 13.4 seventh in NL and relievers 6.2 second in NL. In 2013 starters WAR was 12.0 seventh in NL and relievers 2.0 eighth in NL. So while relievers did well at end of 2013 and starters faded somewhat, overall starters were similar to last year and relievers fell off.

    Reds this year had a K/9 of 7.91 second best in NL, BB/9 of 2.66 third lowest in NL, HR/9 of 1.04 third most in NL, BABIP of .273 lowest in NL, GB% of 44.1% third lowest in NL. Last year K/9 was 7.73 sixth best in NL, BB/9 of 2.64 third lowest in NL, HR/9 of 0.94 tenth most in NL, BABIP of .288 sixth lowest, GB% 45.9% eighth lowest in NL.

    Reds this year saved 43 games sixth highest NL total with a 73 percent save rate, fifth highest in league. Reds blew 16 saves this year. Reds with 94 quality starts this season, tied for second most in NL. Reds allowed 589 runs this season, fourth fewest in the NL. Last year Reds saved 56 games tops in NL, had a 76 percent save rate, fourth best, blew 18 saves, had 98 quality starters last season, fourth most in NL, allowed 588 runs fewest in NL. Reds allowed one more run this year than last.

    Latos eleventh in NL pitching WAR at 3.9 this season, Bailey eighteenth at 3.2. Chapman 38 saves tied for third-fourth in league. Bailey 199 Ks tied for seventh-eighth. Of qualified pitchers Arroyo with only 34 walks, fourth fewest. Latos and Leake tied for fifth-seventh in win percentage with .667. KRate for all pitchers, Chapman at 15.83 led league assuming more than a few games pitched. Arroyo allowed 32 homers, most in the NL.

    Fielding - Reds in 2012 had a UZR of 16.8, third in NL. In 2013, UZR was 29.7, fourth best in NL. Reds UZR rating improved late in the season, was only 20.9 last report. So appears league UZR improved at the top end, including Reds. Using UZR/150, Reds were 4.3 this year, fourth in the league. Individually the top UZR Red at season's end was -- Jay Bruce at 10.2. Bruce's UZR last year was -4.7. This year also Frazier 9.7, Phillips 8.6, Cozart 6.4, Heisey 5.7 in LF, all very good. Votto at 2.2 down from 6.2 last season. Reds finished with 89 errors, second fewest in the NL, DER (MLB.com) of .700 fourth highest in league. Reds second lowest in DPs defensively but low ground ball rate.

    Choo UZR of -17.0 pulled down team ranking, but he was playing out of position and I'll take him any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-30-2013 at 05:27 PM.

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    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Reds stats through 162 games, 2013

    Thanks, lots of info there.

    Here's the Cliffe's Notes version:

    runs scored: 698 (3rd in NL)
    runs given up: 589 (4th in NL)
    run differential: +109 (3rd in NL)
    DER- 1st in NL

    record 90-72 (5th in NL)

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    Re: Reds stats through 162 games, 2013

    Wow, kC. This is great stuff. I read it through twice and likely will a couple more times before tomorrow.

    Diving in some, the two things that jump out at me offensively are the drop in SLG (down from .411 (6th) to .391 (10th)) and the rise in OBP (up from .315 (12th) to .327 (2nd)). Neither surprising. At macro level, the data supports a conclusion of a team that has done quite well this year and not so different from last year in absolute terms, despite the disappointing finish.

    The biggest headline here isn't that we got worse but, rather, that the division (Bucs and Cards) got better.

    I was hoping the Braves would hold on for the #1 seed so that, if we did win tomorrow, we'd face them rather than STL. But now that STL has locked up home-field advantage, that'll be the destination for tomorrow night's winner. We took our last series with them. And, all roads to anything worth getting will go through STL anyway. So, the time to step up starts tomorrow night. As usual, there is plenty for both optimists and pessimists to chew on. Hopefully will be a great game and there will be some RZers in the stands at PNC.
    Last edited by 1940757690; 09-30-2013 at 11:30 AM.
    Reds & Nats, 2013 LCS. Take2 (9/13) Reds but no Nats

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    Re: Reds stats through 162 games, 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by 1940757690 View Post
    Wow, kC. This is great stuff. I read it through twice and likely will a couple more times before tomorrow.

    Diving in some, the two things that jump out at me offensively are the drop in SLG (down from .411 (6th) to .391 (10th)) and the rise in OBP (up from .315 (12th) to .327 (2nd)). Neither surprising. At macro level, the data supports a conclusion of a team that has done quite well this year and not so different from last year in absolute terms, despite the disappointing finish.

    The biggest headline here isn't that we got worse but, rather, that the division (Bucs and Cards) got better.
    194, I think the team had a good regular year but some bad luck and a few subpar performances prevented it from being better.

    Three lefty hitters were excellent, righty bats were subpar. Ludwick injury and no replacement hurt.

    I think this imbalance in hitting performance caused most of the problems in close games and with two outs/RISP. Too easy to pitch around the big three in key spots and other guys didn't have particularly good years.

    Starting pitching was amazing considering Cueto injury. Props to Cingrani.

    Bullpen fell off on the road. Still, the 2012 bullpen performance hard to match.

    Some bad luck in one-run games.

    Hopefully the Reds will make the changes necessary to have a better regular season next year. More important, hopefully they will play for another three or four weeks. Talented team, need to have a hot streak at bat and they'll be ok.

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    Re: Reds stats through 162 games, 2013

    Great stuff as always, Kc.

    The one random stat that I did a double-take on was the extra inning games. Not necessarily the record but more the amount. Is 22 a lot? It's almost once a week.
    No one expects the butterfly

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    Re: Reds stats through 162 games, 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by ThatPitchIsDunn View Post
    Great stuff as always, Kc.

    The one random stat that I did a double-take on was the extra inning games. Not necessarily the record but more the amount. Is 22 a lot? It's almost once a week.
    Reds had a lot of extra innings games. DBacks had 25. Chisox 23. Reds with 22. Mariners 21. Mets, Marlins with 20.

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    Re: Reds stats through 162 games, 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    194, I think the team had a good regular year but some bad luck and a few subpar performances prevented it from being better.

    Three lefty hitters were excellent, righty bats were subpar. Ludwick injury and no replacement hurt.

    I think this imbalance in hitting performance caused most of the problems in close games and with two outs/RISP. Too easy to pitch around the big three in key spots and other guys didn't have particularly good years.

    Starting pitching was amazing considering Cueto injury. Props to Cingrani.

    Bullpen fell off on the road. Still, the 2012 bullpen performance hard to match.

    Some bad luck in one-run games.

    Hopefully the Reds will make the changes necessary to have a better regular season next year. More important, hopefully they will play for another three or four weeks. Talented team, need to have a hot streak at bat and they'll be ok.
    Yep. Agree with this across the board. The lefty/right bats analysis is interesting. The "big 3" was redefined this year with Choo, also a left-handed bat. Frazier and BP are the two RH-bats that most-natably dropped off some this year but both showed real strength also (Todd early year and his 19HR tied his career high; BP's RBIs).

    The simple execution challenges were a real head-scratcher for me. We should have the bats to do well in October. Our 4.31 RPG was 3rd in the NL this year, behind only STL and COL. With RISP, our .260 is good only for 13th relative to the Card's first-place .290. That's the issue. Hitting when it matters. And, of course, the better the pitching, the less of that needed. That's what should happen tomorrow night at PNC. Lower scoring. Reds winning.
    Last edited by 1940757690; 09-30-2013 at 01:15 PM.
    Reds & Nats, 2013 LCS. Take2 (9/13) Reds but no Nats

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    Re: Reds stats through 162 games, 2013

    My strongest view on the team is that when you have the two best OBP men in the NL and play at GABP you should have a top, top offense, a scoring machine. That's my overriding disappointment and I think it explains much of the execution issue.

    But let's save it for after the Reds' post-season which hopefully will be long and fruitful.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-30-2013 at 05:21 PM.

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    Re: Reds stats through 162 games, 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    My strongest view on the team is that when you have the two best OBP men in the NL and play at GABP you should have a top, top offense, a scoring machine. That's my overriding disappointment and I think it explains much of the execution issue.

    But let's save it for after the Reds' post-season which hopefully will be long and fruitful.
    Agree, the drop to 10th in SLG is very troubling for 2014. Pitch around Choo, Votto and Bruce and without much pop in the rest of the order the Reds have to play station to station offense which the rest of the #2, #4 and #6-8 cast doesn't do very well.


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