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Thread: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

  1. #61
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by Falcon7 View Post
    Don't you know by now, that if a certain player on this team is not good at, it just doesn't matter...
    What are you talking about?

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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    too much navel gazing here.

    How we approach our innings offensively will be dictated to a large extent on how Cueto pitches. If we fall behind earlier, we may have no choice but to play for the big inning. And if we're tied in the top of the ninth, we're looking at pinch runners and ABs devoted to moving the guys over (assuming we get someone on base in the first place, of course)

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    Member jimbo's Avatar
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    It's comical anymore how a certain group goes into such a tizzy over one comment from a Reds player, and how that player is tainted forever based on that one comment.

    Overreaction much?

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  6. #64
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by osuceltic View Post
    Smallball is a dirty word around here, but he's right in his intent. They have to scrape across some runs, any way they can. Hit behind a runner. Find a way to get the ball to the outfield with a man on third and less than two outs. Execute a bunt properly. If they play slow-pitch softball, station-to-station on the bases and wait for the three-run homer against Liriano, they may wait themselves right into the offseason.
    The cleanup hitter on a team shouldn't be hitting behind runners on purpose.

  7. #65
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by jimbo View Post
    It's comical anymore how a certain group goes into such a tizzy over one comment from a Reds player, and how that player is tainted forever based on that one comment.

    Overreaction much?
    Tainted forever? Who said anything about tainted forever?

  8. #66
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The cleanup hitter on a team shouldn't be hitting behind runners on purpose.
    Why?

  9. #67
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Like it or not, this game is going to be managed differently than a regular-season game. By both sides. Most playoff games are, but it is particularly evident in elimination games.

    --Both managers will have shorter leashes on their pitchers.
    --Each team's ace is going, so expect fewer hits, walks, baserunners in general.
    --If one starter does get in trouble, it won't be unusual to see another starter come into the game instead of a long- or middle-reliever.
    --In a game where you may expect to get 5 or 6 hits, at best, off the other team's ace, you play for 1 run unless you fall way behind. I'd imagine the team that scores first wins a high percentage of these games.

    It will be unusual to string 3-4 straight hits together off of either Cueto or Liriano. You have to scratch out a run any way you can. That is small ball. I think that is what Phillips is talking about. I see nothing wrong with it.
    Last edited by Norm Chortleton; 10-01-2013 at 01:44 PM.

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  11. #68
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    nm
    Last edited by bucksfan2; 10-01-2013 at 02:06 PM.

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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    My assumption -- based on the data we have -- is that bunting/productive outs are usually not a smart strategy to use. Yes, there are exceptions -- when the pitcher is up, when you are playing for one run in a late inning/sudden death situation, etc.
    Most playoff games, due to top pitching, and best players playing, come down to this situation. Most are close one run games, and today's game is absolutely sudden death.

    So basically, you too agree that small ball is the smart move in most playoff games.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #70
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Why?
    Because he should be trying to get hits.

  14. #71
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Productive outs are like productive coughs. It would be better to not be sick to begin with and if you're not sick, they'll just give you a sore throat and annoy those around you.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by ervinsm84 View Post
    You have one free roll bet to win a large sum playing one hand of blackjack.

    Do you throw out every thing you know about strategy when you get dealt 20 with the dealer showing 6?

    After all, dealer could get a 5 then a 10 which beats your 20.
    All good blackjack, poker players I know, when everything is riding on one hand, do not, absolutely, do not, play by the same book as when they know they will be playing for hours.

    They play a 20 against a 6 the same way, but they don't play a 15 against a 10 the same way. I once saw a blackjack player in a tournament, when he knew if he lost, it would be his last hand, hit on a 17 against a 10. It's the same as football coach going for it on fourth and 8 with 12 seconds on the clock.

    The overall odds matter when you play 162 games. They are rather meaningless on one hand or in one game, one at bat. The fact that the odds say that you have a .48 chance a run by swinging away, but a .42 chance to score a run by bunting, means nothing in that one AB. The odds are way too close to have any effect on that one at bat. That's why you throw away the book in sudden death situations. Overall odds are meaningless in such a small sample size.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  18. #73
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Because he should be trying to get hits.
    If your putting a runner in motion isn't hitting behind a runner trying to get a hit?

    You throw a comment out there as absolute with only one piece of data. Wouldn't knowing the situation determine what the batter should do?

    For example Phillips up, Ludwick on 1st, one out, 1-1 game, top 7. It would also be important to know who is pitching, how that pitcher pitches Phillips, and Phillips tendency against that pitcher. If they are pitching Phillips outside and the pitcher is a ground ball pitcher it may not be a bad idea to start the runner and have BP hit behind the runner.

    Or how about this, Votto leads off the top of the 9th with a double. The Reds are up 2-1 with Chapman warming up in the pen. Phillips first goal is to get a hit to drive in the runner. His second goal is to avoid making an out via the walk. And his third goal is to make sure Votto gets to third base at worse. If he hits a routine grounder to the 2b but Votto scores on a Bruce sac fly isn't that a good thing? It isn't as good as 2 HR's, but the opposing team is trying to get outs as well.

  19. #74
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The cleanup hitter on a team shouldn't be hitting behind runners on purpose.
    How about the MVP? Barry Larkin did it all the time. Hell, so did Kevin Mitchell.

  20. #75
    Member ervinsm84's Avatar
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    All good blackjack, poker players I know, when everything is riding on one hand, do not, absolutely, do not, play by the same book as when they know they will be playing for hours.

    They play a 20 against a 6 the same way, but they don't play a 15 against a 10 the same way. I once saw a blackjack player in a tournament, when he knew if he lost, it would be his last hand, hit on a 17 against a 10. It's the same as football coach going for it on fourth and 8 with 12 seconds on the clock.

    The overall odds matter when you play 162 games. They are rather meaningless on one hand or in one game, one at bat. The fact that the odds say that you have a .48 chance a run by swinging away, but a .42 chance to score a run by bunting, means nothing in that one AB. The odds are way too close to have any effect on that one at bat. That's why you throw away the book in sudden death situations. Overall odds are meaningless in such a small sample size.
    You don't seem to understand how math works and this post really illustrated that. I'm on my phone but I'll explain in more detail when I can get on a computer.
    Newsflash!

    Joey Votto does not care about RBI.

    NEITHER SHOULD ANY OF US


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