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Thread: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Sure, I bet you'd say the same thing about wearing pink panties and blowing kisses at the moon. But that still doesn't make "productive coughs" when youre not sick lead to victory.
    I'd bet if the reds knew they'd win by wearing pink panties and blowing a kiss at the moon after the national anthem they'd sure as heck do it. if making an out means a run when runs will more than likely be scarce, I'm sure both teams will be more than willing to make that out. We all know that not making an out 99% of the time, or better yet getting a hit, is better than making an out, but in an environment where runners, hits and runs will be at a premium, then maybe smallball should play a larger role than in a regular season game with 4 or 5 starters and soft middle relievers often on the mound.

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  3. #122
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    I'd bet if the reds knew they'd win by wearing pink panties and blowing a kiss at the moon after the national anthem they'd sure as heck do it. if making an out means a run when runs will more than likely be scarce, I'm sure both teams will be more than willing to make that out. We all know that not making an out 99% of the time, or better yet getting a hit, is better than making an out, but in an environment where runners, hits and runs will be at a premium, then maybe smallball should play a larger role than in a regular season game with 4 or 5 starters and soft middle relievers often on the mound.
    So the Pirates now require a de facto small ball approach but they didn't last week?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    So the Pirates now require a de facto small ball approach but they didn't last week?
    That's not what I said. Runs are harder to come by in the playoffs. If you lose you go home. Play for baserunners, play for hits, play for power, but if the opportunity presents itself to get a run even if an out is made take it. No one goes to the plate saying I need to make an out to get this run in, they are saying at the very least I need to make sure I make contact to make sure this run scores. Make sure you get the runs that are immediately available in front if you while you can instead of playing for theorectical future runs, because with the better pitching on the mound, the less likely those future runs will be. We all know hits and OBP are better than outs, but for one night the only thing that matters is who has more runs. Get them anyway possible no matter your panty color preference. Just because one way is the best way doesn't mean it's the only way. If the pirates out hit and out OBP and out ops the reds I won't care as long as the reds outscore them at the end of the game b
    Last edited by Old school 1983; 10-01-2013 at 05:24 PM.

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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    That's not what I said. Runs are harder to come by in the playoffs. If you lose you go home. Play for baserunners, play for hits, play for power, but if the opportunity presents itself to get a run even if an out is made take it. No one goes to the plate saying I need to make an out to get this run in, they are saying at the very least I need to make sure I make contact to make sure this run scores. Make sure you get the runs that are immediately available in front if you while you can instead of playing for theorectical future runs, because with the better pitching on the mound, the less likely those future runs will be. We all know hits and OBP are better than outs, but for one night the only thing that matters is who has more runs. Get them anyway possible no matter your panty color preference.
    Contact doesn't mean a run scores though. That is the problem with the approach you are suggesting they take (and I have no doubt that plenty of hitters do indeed take that approach).

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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    It's one game. Throw all the odds out the window. Acquiring bases, avoiding outs, OBP, SLG, OPS, xFIP all make sense over 162 games. They all are less than meaningless in a one game playoff.

    All they matters is scoring one more run then the Pirates tonight. Smallball works best in the playoffs, especially in a one game playoff.

    Viva La Smallball!
    Above bolded is was the post that prompted my hypothetical blackjack scenario below. The gist is really simple. There's no reason to throw out all that we know about how runs are scored and basic strategy. This does not preclude us from adjusting and adapting to the situation at hand. I really hope this game is managed differently than a game played in June, most specifically with regards to pitching usage. You can also make an argument that tonight's game is a different run scoring environment than a game vs the Astro's fifth starter. I think that is apparent as Liriano is very good, and because the Hurdle will similarly be extra judicious in using his bullpen. This is reflected in the betting market, which actually the last I checked had the combineed over/under for the runs scored in this game at 6.5. That is a very low number for a baseball game, but is not uncommon in a playoff scenario like tonight.

    When a team is in a lower run scoring environment, it CAN be correct to bunt, because the value of runs are much higher in this scarce environment. It's kinda like basic economics supply/demand, but really all that bunting is doing, (in the correct spots) is attempting to maximize our win probability. This is why bunting in the bottom of the 9th of a tie game is often correct (obv depends on pitcher, hitter, where in the lineup, who will likely face the next guy etc etc etc etc). It is not correct because YEA OMG SMALLL BAWLZ IS DIZ SO AWWSUM. It however, is often correct because the marginal value of 1 run in the bottom of the 9th of a tie game is so high, and there is no added value to scoring more than 1 in that inning, which is why the manager should do whatever possible in this spot to maximize the chances of 1 run.




    Quote Originally Posted by ervinsm84 View Post
    You have one free roll bet to win a large sum playing one hand of blackjack.

    Do you throw out every thing you know about strategy when you get dealt 20 with the dealer showing 6?

    After all, dealer could get a 5 then a 10 which beats your 20.
    I didn't think I would need to explain why I chose this, but not everyone has the same gambling background as I do so I understand that.

    The point of the hypothetical is its in essence a one game playoff. Similar to the game tonight. There is no need to throw out all of the basic strategy and knowledge we have of the game. There will and should be a few small deviations we make wrt to bullpen and pitcher usage, but we would be insane to say "ok guys, everything we've learned about zoning up/guessing on a 2-0 count with no one on and 2 outs looking to drive a ball in a gap or to hit a hr goes out the window and we need him to try and bunt for a hit to put the ball in play." That is obviously a contrived extreme ridiculous example. But if were going to throw out all the odds, that also translates to other areas of baseball which are rooted in odds. The idea of not bunting for a hit in that spot (most of the time) is probably not a good plan unless you're Billy Hamilton and arent a very good hitter, and even then idk.


    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    All good blackjack, poker players I know, when everything is riding on one hand, do not, absolutely, do not, play by the same book as when they know they will be playing for hours.

    The overall odds matter when you play 162 games. They are rather meaningless on one hand or in one game, one at bat. The fact that the odds say that you have a .48 chance a run by swinging away, but a .42 chance to score a run by bunting, means nothing in that one AB. The odds are way too close to have any effect on that one at bat. That's why you throw away the book in sudden death situations. Overall odds are meaningless in such a small sample size.
    I know you don't care, and I hate the lol logic fallacy of appeal to authority, but I played poker full time for a living for 3 years as an online pro before Black Friday hit in April 2010. I did very well for myself. I even coached people. Yes, other people paid me to teach them how to play a silly game on a computer over skype and mikogo/teamviewer. I can definitively tell you that you are wrong on the above bolded wrt poker. If its a large decision, they are going to do whatever maximizes their $EV assuming they are properly rolled for the game they are in. If you don't agree, just go post your statement/question on the twoplustwo poker forums and see the reaction. Blackjack, idk, but I imagine its similar.


    Also, if the odds are meaningless in one game, does that imply that the Reds and Pirates each have a 50% chance to win tonight? If that is true, you should be looking up the Kelly Criterion right now and finding out the exact amount you should be betting on the Reds to win, because otherwise that is passing up free $EV


    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    The way I feel about playoff baseball. I am not going to get too analytical about decisions. Normally I love numbers and over a full season you are probably better off playing the percentages but this is not a full season. Anything can happen. All that matters is the result.I would strictly judge the managers on the result not the process here. It is a whole different ballgame now.

    After all only in postseason can a Cody Ross be the best hitter in the league. Hot hand walks away with all the money. If a manager wants to manage by their gut that is fine, they just better be right
    I completely agree anything can happen. I want the manager to maximize our chances of winning the game and I'm sure you do as well. Our dichotomy is with the process vs short term- results oriented way of looking at this. I'll be thrilled if the Reds win, just as you will, even if that meant Dusty brought Logan Ondrusek in the 2nd inning for Cueto despite him striking out the side and pinch hit Izturis for Joey Votto in the 3rd after Votto hit a 3 run hr in the first and is healthy. I'm still going to say those types of decisions were wrong, and he was lucky though. But damn I would enjoy it.

    Hopefully tonight we get lucky though.



    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Yes it is.

    When you make decisions during the regular season, you use the odds because you know that if you consistently go according to the odds, in the long run, you will win more games than you if don't go by the odds. During the regular season, if that decision didn't work out that one time, it's no big deal, as you know that over the course of the season, it will work out overall.

    You don't have that luxury in the playoffs. You don't have time for the odds to play out. That's why they are meaningless. You have to win that game, no matter what. If you make a decision based on the odds in the playoffs, and it doesn't work, you're screwed. You can't say that by making the same decision, it will work out over time, because you don't have the time.

    This is why the playoffs are such a crapshoot. They are way too small of a sample size for the odds to be of any effect. Randomness has a much bigger effect. That's why you have playoff heroes like Cody Ross, David Freese, Billy Hatcher and Tom Lawless.
    First bolded part is where we disagree is the leap from "not having time for the odds to play out" to "thus they are meaningless." That's our disconnect and I do not follow the logic there.


    The second bolded though. Uh oh we agree on something. The playoffs are pretty variance filled in this current setup.


    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    My point is that you to look at the game through a different lens during a short playoff series than you do during a 163 game season.

    You play blackjack differently if you know you are only playing 5 hands instead of 150.

    You play the last two minutes of a football game differently than you do the rest of the game.

    You don't play by no rules, just different ones.
    I actually agree with the bolded here. This is why the pitcher's usage will be different tonight and its important to adjust and adapt to also a lower run scoring environment than most games. That said, if it was a regular season game between these two pitchers, the run scoring environment would still be very low and not change that dramatically to what is currently.
    Newsflash!

    Joey Votto does not care about RBI.

    NEITHER SHOULD ANY OF US

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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    So BP is getting ripped in this thread for saying lets put our pride aside and play smallball....which essentially means give ones self up for the team (whether it is the best move or not, it does involve sacrificing ones self for the team).

    In the other thread Votto is pretty much praised for saying he is unwilling to hit the ball on the ground or pop the ball to center to score a run, regardless of situation.

    We are in the playoffs...you have to get runs by whenever you get a chance. If we get a runner on 3rd and 1 out...I hope whoever is at the plate hits it on the ground or pops it to center versus walks...I want the run in for certain.

    Now if we have a rally building...lets get a big inning
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Runs aren't created any differently in the playoffs, they are generally just harder to come by because the pitching will generally be at a higher level in the playoffs. Outs will be easier and hits will be fewer. I'm not saying play small ball at all times, but making something happen with those outs is often the difference between a win or a loss in a playoff game. Of course id love the reds to come out and hit the crap out if liriano, but realistically, that probably isn't going to happen. Unless you're down by a bunch, if you get a chance to score one run take it. A lead pressures the other team.
    You realize your first sentence is contradictory right? It implies some change in the RC environment.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    I don't think the basics of run creation change so much as the perception of the value of each run changes. Over a 162-game season, the odds tend to favor playing it straight up, and even if you're tempted to play for one run, the generic odds are telling you that most of the time you're not really helping yourself.

    But those are generic odds and those are (usually) not must-win games. If Cueto and Liriano are both dealing and it's 0-0 in the top of the sixth and baserunners are about as plentiful as tumbleweeds, if someone on the Reds leads off with a bloop double, the leverage of that potential go-ahead run is going to be blinking like the world's biggest neon sign. In the regular season, it feels like the start of a rally; in a do-or-die game, it feels like you'd better get that guy home at all costs. That is why managers manage and players play a touch differently in the postseason. Not saying it's necessarily correct, but it's how it is.
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Contact doesn't mean a run scores though. That is the problem with the approach you are suggesting they take (and I have no doubt that plenty of hitters do indeed take that approach).
    No but neither does swinging for the downs. They both have their merits in different situations. If the playoffs worked the same way as the regular season then we'd hear less crapshoot and more explanation. The playoffs often require doing things that most sabermatricians cringe at so they'd rather call crapshoot than give situational baseball merit. I'll freely admit that the sabermetric approach to baseball is great and often the best way to go most of the time. I just wish the diehard saber guys would give small ball merit in some circumstances because it does have some especially in the playoffs.

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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    I don't think the basics of run creation change so much as the perception of the value of each run changes. Over a 162-game season, the odds tend to favor playing it straight up, and even if you're tempted to play for one run, the generic odds are telling you that most of the time you're not really helping yourself.

    But those are generic odds and those are (usually) not must-win games. If Cueto and Liriano are both dealing and it's 0-0 in the top of the sixth and baserunners are about as plentiful as tumbleweeds, if someone on the Reds leads off with a bloop double, the leverage of that potential go-ahead run is going to be blinking like the world's biggest neon sign. In the regular season, it feels like the start of a rally; in a do-or-die game, it feels like you'd better get that guy home at all costs. That is why managers manage and players play a touch differently in the postseason. Not saying it's necessarily correct, but it's how it is.
    Which is why you need to check your emotions at the door and calmly assess the odds and the specific situation. If that's not how a manager makes his money, what is?
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Which is why you need to check your emotions at the door and calmly assess the odds and the specific situation. If that's not how a manager makes his money, what is?
    In a situation where the exact odds are unknowable, sometimes the gut serves you better than pretending it's a perfectly typical situation when it's clearly not.

    I know what the run-expectancy matrices (both the average-runs variety and chance-of-scoring variety) say the average outcome of "runner on second, nobody out" is. But in this specific hypothetical situation, facing a Liriano who's throwing BBs and is about to face a left-handed hitter who can't hit him with a boat paddle, the real percentages aren't as good as the matrix says. And if the Pirates aren't touching Cueto either? First team who somehow manages to push a run across has a very good chance of winning the game.

    Run expectancy is leverage-agnostic. Sometimes the win-expectancy lens gives a clearer view. (Not a new concept by any means -- I remember a chapter in that Baseball By The Numbers book that analyzed the whole "play for one run or big inning" question in terms of win expectancy.)

    And now, I'm about to forget about hypothetical baseball and watch real baseball. Go Reds!
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    Re: Dat Dude:"We need to put our pride aside and play smallball!

    Quote Originally Posted by ervinsm84 View Post
    Above bolded is was the post that prompted my hypothetical blackjack scenario below. The gist is really simple. There's no reason to throw out all that we know about how runs are scored and basic strategy. This does not preclude us from adjusting and adapting to the situation at hand. I really hope this game is managed differently than a game played in June, most specifically with regards to pitching usage. You can also make an argument that tonight's game is a different run scoring environment than a game vs the Astro's fifth starter. I think that is apparent as Liriano is very good, and because the Hurdle will similarly be extra judicious in using his bullpen. This is reflected in the betting market, which actually the last I checked had the combineed over/under for the runs scored in this game at 6.5. That is a very low number for a baseball game, but is not uncommon in a playoff scenario like tonight.

    When a team is in a lower run scoring environment, it CAN be correct to bunt, because the value of runs are much higher in this scarce environment. It's kinda like basic economics supply/demand, but really all that bunting is doing, (in the correct spots) is attempting to maximize our win probability. This is why bunting in the bottom of the 9th of a tie game is often correct (obv depends on pitcher, hitter, where in the lineup, who will likely face the next guy etc etc etc etc). It is not correct because YEA OMG SMALLL BAWLZ IS DIZ SO AWWSUM. It however, is often correct because the marginal value of 1 run in the bottom of the 9th of a tie game is so high, and there is no added value to scoring more than 1 in that inning, which is why the manager should do whatever possible in this spot to maximize the chances of 1 run.






    I didn't think I would need to explain why I chose this, but not everyone has the same gambling background as I do so I understand that.

    The point of the hypothetical is its in essence a one game playoff. Similar to the game tonight. There is no need to throw out all of the basic strategy and knowledge we have of the game. There will and should be a few small deviations we make wrt to bullpen and pitcher usage, but we would be insane to say "ok guys, everything we've learned about zoning up/guessing on a 2-0 count with no one on and 2 outs looking to drive a ball in a gap or to hit a hr goes out the window and we need him to try and bunt for a hit to put the ball in play." That is obviously a contrived extreme ridiculous example. But if were going to throw out all the odds, that also translates to other areas of baseball which are rooted in odds. The idea of not bunting for a hit in that spot (most of the time) is probably not a good plan unless you're Billy Hamilton and arent a very good hitter, and even then idk.




    I know you don't care, and I hate the lol logic fallacy of appeal to authority, but I played poker full time for a living for 3 years as an online pro before Black Friday hit in April 2010. I did very well for myself. I even coached people. Yes, other people paid me to teach them how to play a silly game on a computer over skype and mikogo/teamviewer. I can definitively tell you that you are wrong on the above bolded wrt poker. If its a large decision, they are going to do whatever maximizes their $EV assuming they are properly rolled for the game they are in. If you don't agree, just go post your statement/question on the twoplustwo poker forums and see the reaction. Blackjack, idk, but I imagine its similar.


    Also, if the odds are meaningless in one game, does that imply that the Reds and Pirates each have a 50% chance to win tonight? If that is true, you should be looking up the Kelly Criterion right now and finding out the exact amount you should be betting on the Reds to win, because otherwise that is passing up free $EV




    I completely agree anything can happen. I want the manager to maximize our chances of winning the game and I'm sure you do as well. Our dichotomy is with the process vs short term- results oriented way of looking at this. I'll be thrilled if the Reds win, just as you will, even if that meant Dusty brought Logan Ondrusek in the 2nd inning for Cueto despite him striking out the side and pinch hit Izturis for Joey Votto in the 3rd after Votto hit a 3 run hr in the first and is healthy. I'm still going to say those types of decisions were wrong, and he was lucky though. But damn I would enjoy it.

    Hopefully tonight we get lucky though.





    First bolded part is where we disagree is the leap from "not having time for the odds to play out" to "thus they are meaningless." That's our disconnect and I do not follow the logic there.


    The second bolded though. Uh oh we agree on something. The playoffs are pretty variance filled in this current setup.




    I actually agree with the bolded here. This is why the pitcher's usage will be different tonight and its important to adjust and adapt to also a lower run scoring environment than most games. That said, if it was a regular season game between these two pitchers, the run scoring environment would still be very low and not change that dramatically to what is currently.
    You've completely misunderstood what I said.

    You throw out the odds you would use for the regular season, and use a new set of odds for the playoffs. It would be very similar to the old odds, but it would need to be tweeked, because the playoffs use a different set of data to determine the odds.

    The poker analogy doesn't work completely because the odds stay the same on every hand, no matter if you're on the last hand of a tournament, or playing in a casual game. That's not the case in baseball and the playoffs.

    The odds that are used for the regular season include data of every game played over the course of a season, or many seasons. They include the team facing the Astros, the Marlins, the Cubs, #1 starters, #5 starters, middle relievers, september minor league call ups... every game against virtually every type of team, pitcher, fielder and hitter.

    In the playoffs, you don't face the Cubs, Astros or Marlins. You don't face middle relievers, you don't face #5 starters. In a one game series, you face, #1 starters, set up men and closers. You face the best lineup and the best defense the other team has to offer.

    Because of this, the odds of every event are drastically different in the playoffs than they are in the regular season. And you must adjust for that. You do that by throwing our the regular season odds, and replacing it with the playoff odds.

    Because you should be a very good team, and the other team should be a very good team, and you are each putting your best players on the field, that usually means a very tight, low scoring game. That means every single run is precious . That means doing the little things matter more in the playoffs than they do in the regular season. That means there will be more occasions when the odds say that productive outs are good. That means there will be more occasions when the odds say that taking the extra base is worth the risk. That means there will be more occasions when the odds say that bunting is better than not bunting. Quite simply, when there is a lower run environment, there will be more occasions when the odds more heavily favor small ball.

    To answer another question being debated in this thread, in the playoffs runs are absolutely created in a different way than in the regular season, since there is vastly different talent pool playing the game. And that changes the odds.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


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