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Thread: So who's back next year?

  1. #1
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    So who's back next year?

    After last night's debacle, my "no trade" list is very small. I'd keep:

    Votto, Latos, Chapman, Billy, Bruce

    Everyone else is fair game to be traded to improve this team. There was absolutely zero drive last night and the guys I listed are just as responsible for that as anyone else (or at least the guys that got to play). I just think those 5 guys are too valuable talent-wise to trade away.

    Who would you keep? Who would you like to pick up this off season?

    *I would love to keep Choo also, but it's not looking good for that either.

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    Re: So who's back next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Delancey View Post
    After last night's debacle, my "no trade" list is very small. I'd keep:

    Votto, Latos, Chapman, Billy, Bruce

    Everyone else is fair game to be traded to improve this team. There was absolutely zero drive last night and the guys I listed are just as responsible for that as anyone else (or at least the guys that got to play). I just think those 5 guys are too valuable talent-wise to trade away.

    Who would you keep? Who would you like to pick up this off season?

    *I would love to keep Choo also, but it's not looking good for that either.
    Ludwick and I think Ondrukesk are also coming back, without a doubt. They both have contracts that NOBODY else will want for their production. And sad to say, so will Dusty. Most of this team will be back except Bronson, Choo and maybe one other person. The team you saw last night will be very similar to one you see next year, but most likely a little worse because we lose Choo and Bronson.

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    Member Dwarftree's Avatar
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    Re: So who's back next year?

    I would keep the core of our team. With what we can afford we have a young and talented roster. More or less from top to bottom. Issue being that the potential horsepower we have has not being putting it on the ground (or grass in that matter) on a regular basis. And i completely blame coaching for that.

    We have a saying here in Germany (loosely translated) "The fish starts to smell from the head". Meaning that the first ones that are to blame are the one on the top of the organisation. Having read a couple of threads here today after yesterdays disaster some blame Walt for not stocking up after all the injuries.

    I personally do not think so. I would get rid of Dusty. As someone mentioned here: He might make a contender out of a young talented team as he did with the Reds. But his playoff credentials are pretty devastating. And i completely agree on that. He is just not able to manage the "important ones" or as it seems keeping his team motivated. And sticking with the saying mentioned above, the second head that has to go is (PLEEEASEEE FINALLY) Brook Jacoby. I have been complaining about the hitting approach ever since i got mlb.tv 2 years ago and was able to watch Reds games live. Even though i just played on a (compared to the US) lets say highschool or a very low grade college level i think i know when i see bad ABs. And i have seen a lot of them within our lineup. And that is on the hitting coach.

    I would not mind seeing a loosing season from a bad team. As we all did from 1995 till 2009. But seeing a imho very talented team falter like that for the second season in a row is just pure frustration. And yes these lines were written in pure frustration. Good thing being though is that i will not have to stay up all night till 3 or 4 in order to watch games live.

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    Re: So who's back next year?

    Apparently I can't start a new thread this morning for whatever reason, but I think what I wanted to say is applicable to the topic, so I'll just post here instead of generating a new thread.

    I don't know about you guys, but I'd like to forget about that fiasco last night and this relatively disappointing season as a whole. In an attempt to look forward instead of back, here's my primer for the challenges that the Reds will be facing this offseason.

    First, let's take a look at the payroll situation. The Reds had an opening day payroll of about $106 million in 2013. I’d guess that we could reasonably expect to see them stretch to something like $110 million in 2014. Current 2014 commitments total about $76 million with breakdown by player as follows:

    Votto: $12M
    Phillips: $11M
    Bruce: $10M
    Cueto $10M
    Ludwick: $7.5M
    Latos: $7.25M
    Broxton: $7M
    Marshall: $5.5M
    Chapman: $3M
    Ondrusek: $1.35M
    Hannahan: $1M
    Arbitration Eligible: Bailey, Leake, Heisey, Hanigan, Simon, LeCure, Paul

    I’m fairly certain that all of the arbitration eligible guys will be tendered contracts. I think we can reasonably expect Bailey to get $7-$8 million in arbitration and Leake to get about $5 million. Heisey and Hanigan will probably get $2-$3 million each. The other three guys will likely average out to about $1 million each. Cozart, Frazier, Mesoraco, Cingrani, Hoover, Robinson, et al. will still be making the league minimum (~$0.5 million each). Arroyo, Parra, Choo, and Izturis represent the Reds’ free agent crop.

    So with absolutely no extensions, free agent signings, or trades, I’m projecting the Reds' 2014 opening day payroll to be right at about $100M.

    With this information in mind, here are my top 3 issues heading into the winter months:

    1. Impending Free Agents

    Choo and Arroyo have been integral parts of the Reds' run in 2013. At this point, I think it's a pretty easy decision to let Arroyo walk. Cingrani is ready to take his place, and Stephenson will likely be knocking on the door soon enough. The question is whether the Reds will risk handing him a qualifying offer. With the budget pinch currently facing the team, I think it's doubtful that he'll get that offer.

    Choo is a different story. We all hope that Hamilton is ready to take over in center, but that's far from a certainty. In addition, we have no idea what to expect from Ludwick moving forward. If Choo leaves, two thirds of the starting outfield will be populated by a giant question mark with no viable options in the system that are close to MLB ready. Unfortunately, I think the Reds may have to let Choo walk. I'd offer up to 4 years and $60 million. I think the Reds could swing that number but no more. Sadly, Hunter Pence recently signed a $90 million deal, so I think any chance of Choo getting less than $80 million has evaporated.

    Barring a pretty significant trade or FA signing, it's looking like we might have to live with an outfield of Bruce/Hamilton/Ludwick and hope for the best. This is not very promising to say the least.

    2. Locking Up the Rotation

    There's no denying that this team's strength lies in its starting pitching. Homer Bailey is slated to reach FA after the 2014 season, and Latos will get there after the 2015 season. The Reds need to work hard to lock up at least one of the two. My preference would be to lock up Latos. He's further from FA and has been the better, more consistent pitcher throughout his career. I'm not sure what an extension would look like money wise and there's always significant volatility and risk when signing a pitcher long term, but Latos is about as good a bet as there is out there right now. This needs to be the team's top priority this winter.

    3. Trimming the Fat

    As has been illustrated above, payroll is starting to become an issue for this squad. Unfortunately, the team is likely stuck with Broxton and Ludwick. I think we all knew their deals were mistakes from the beginning, but there's no getting out of it at this point. Votto, Bruce, Cueto and Latos are corner stones and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.

    This brings me to the topic of Brandon Phillips. I've always liked Phillips. He has been an average to slightly above average bat playing sterling defense at a premium position for the better part of the last decade. There's real value in that kind of a player. However, he looks like he is just about ready to fall off a cliff from a production standpoint. Yes, he has been banged up this year, but his OPS and ISO have declined steadily over the last 3 years while his K rate has risen. He may have a decent year or two left in him, but I don't want to be left holding the bag when it all falls apart for him.

    The Dodgers are said to be shopping for a 2B, and Phillips' salary probably doesn't look so bad to a team with seemingly limitless monies. If the Reds could swing a deal and grab a prospect or two in the process, they might be in a much better position a year or two down the road. They could also potentially look at signing Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero as Phillips' potential replacement.

    In any event, these are just my thoughts. Let me know if you agree, disagree, or have significantly better ideas of your own. At this point, I say bring on the offseason. It certainly can't be any worse than what we've been watching for the last week and a half.
    Last edited by Alpha Zero; 10-02-2013 at 08:23 AM.

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  8. #5
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    Re: So who's back next year?

    Pretty solid Alpha. Except I disagree about Arroyo. The Reds HAVE to make him that offer and take the risk he'll accept which I believe is very low. To do otherwise is dumb business. First BA is not in a position to accept a 1 year deal. If he does he is pretty much locked into one year deals from now on. This is really his last shot at a meaningful multi year deal. Not making him an offer, giving the very narrow time frame for qualifying offers would be incredibly stupid, imo. At the worst, it means paying him one year to be a bridge to Stephenson.

    I think they'll take a shot at Choo but they'll fall way short of what the market offers.

    I would also lock up Latos, if possible, and shop Bailey. Notice I said shop, not necessarily trade him. The return would have to be something Latos like back to the Reds (hopefully with a better outcome for the Reds than the Padres have gotten!). I don't think that is likely.

    I think it is going to be a slow, boring winter - the payroll, as you laid out, is already pushed near the limit, there are some tough contracts as regards trading or replacing, and Walt may do nothing more than dumpster dive. I fact, after Choo and Arroyo ar dealt with and decided on, that's all I expect. I don't even expect a Latos or Bailey extension will get done.
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    Re: So who's back next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Pretty solid Alpha. Except I disagree about Arroyo. The Reds HAVE to make him that offer and take the risk he'll accept which I believe is very low. To do otherwise is dumb business. First BA is not in a position to accept a 1 year deal. If he does he is pretty much locked into one year deals from now on. This is really his last shot at a meaningful multi year deal. Not making him an offer, giving the very narrow time frame for qualifying offers would be incredibly stupid, imo. At the worst, it means paying him one year to be a bridge to Stephenson.
    I can see the argument for making the qualifying offer to Arroyo. He has stated publicly that he wants a multi year deal, and he could very well get one based on his performance this year and his reputation as an innings eater. If the Reds think they can absorb the hit in the event that he does accept, I'd say go ahead and offer him, but it looks like they'd be completely hamstrung if he accepted. That makes the offer a pretty big risk in my book, even if you think there's a good chance that he'll decline.

    On the other hand if he did accept, that might actually free the Reds up to pursue a deal for Bailey in earnest since you'd have six guys for the five man rotation. Maybe that could replenish the system and get us the kind of promising young bat we're looking for to round out the OF. It's definitely an interesting thought.

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    Re: So who's back next year?

    my non trade list is bruce, votto and latos

    I would love to see chapman traded (for a good return). I doubt that heŽll be effective as a starter (I think he canŽt do it...). He lives with his high velocity and not much else (his slider is great if he can find the strike zone) and his velocity would go down as a starter => he would be more hittable..
    next thing is going the 2nd time threw the order, the hitters will be used to what he throws quicker...
    and he has mental problems, if he has an offday or gives up a homer heŽll thinks to much about it and its getting worse (not good for starters)

    his money is way to much for the reds to use him only 80 innings per season and I do think the closer position is overrated (especially the way dusty uses it)


    I would like to see BP in another uniform if we have a plan b at 2nd (I like him but I think his contract is bad and his acts on the field and interviews off the field got worse aswell)

    I have no problem selling the rest of the team, if the price is right

    for example billy hamilton, how can you judge a guy like him as untouchable if he has less than 100 at bats in mlb... of course heŽs a great prospect and the return should be very good but if you get a great offer you have to think about it....

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    Re: So who's back next year?

    I'll trade them all for the right offer.

    Make Arroyo and Choo qualifying offers safe in the knowledge that they will want to play and the free agent market will pay them more.

    One thing Walt has done well as a GM is identify what he things the club needs and then go and get it.....Arroyo, Rolen, Chapman, Latos, Choo....Nobody saw those moves coming. I don't know what Walt will do, but I'll trust that he has some ideas.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Re: So who's back next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    I'll trade them all for the right offer.

    Make Arroyo and Choo qualifying offers safe in the knowledge that they will want to play and the free agent market will pay them more.

    One thing Walt has done well as a GM is identify what he things the club needs and then go and get it.....Arroyo, Rolen, Chapman, Latos, Choo....Nobody saw those moves coming. I don't know what Walt will do, but I'll trust that he has some ideas.
    Wow, trade them all? that would be interesting. It would be like the movie major league in a way. Get a whole bunch of no name players out there to drive attendance down and happen to make the playoffs that way lol.. I would only hope Walt has some ideas. I first thought walt would be our answer to getting over the hump, but it starting to not look that way with the way these contracts are shaping out. Could be him or Dusty, idk.. But there is a stagnent problem in that organization that needs cleaned up, that's for sure.

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    Re: So who's back next year?

    You gotta keep Dusty. I LOVE DUSTY! Why get rid of a guy with World Series managerial experience? Foolish if you ask me. He does have some slight problems with managing the bullpen, but that can be fixed. Let's be real, the starting rotation is horrid. We don't have 1 ACE! Not one. Maybe Cingrani is in the future, but as of right now, the future is looking dismal. Its a crapshoot with this rotation. Can Cueto stay healthy? Is Arroyo getting too old? Will Homer stay consistent; especially when pitching outside of GABP. We need a SOLID rotation and the only way to get that is to trade away a guy like Hamilton (which I'm not ready to do at this point). OR trade away a guy like Homer along with Frazier.

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    Re: So who's back next year?

    It's a Sicilian expression and it's "The fish stinks from the head."

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    Re: So who's back next year?

    Don't get it. He's best with high budget veterans. He's lousy with young players who are just figuring out how to play the game but who eventually stop figuring. He's loved by the players because he pretty much lets them do whatever they want. What five-year-old would love a kindergarten teacher who let's them do anything they want.

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    Re: So who's back next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Delancey View Post
    After last night's debacle, my "no trade" list is very small. I'd keep:

    Votto, Latos, Chapman, Billy, Bruce

    Everyone else is fair game to be traded to improve this team. There was absolutely zero drive last night and the guys I listed are just as responsible for that as anyone else (or at least the guys that got to play). I just think those 5 guys are too valuable talent-wise to trade away.

    Who would you keep? Who would you like to pick up this off season?

    *I would love to keep Choo also, but it's not looking good for that either.
    There is no player on this team that is untouchable.

    If any team in dumb enough to take an average & very overrated player like Votto & his contract of the reds hands, they should listen to any & all offers.

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    Re: So who's back next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Seat5 View Post
    There is no player on this team that is untouchable.

    If any team in dumb enough to take an average & very overrated player like Votto & his contract of the reds hands, they should listen to any & all offers.
    Good lord, not this again. Votto probably isn't very tradeable due to his contract, but to call him average is ignorant beyond belief. The guy is inside the top ten in the NL in every important offensive category. He is even tied for 11th in HR I believe. If he's average, then I want more of that please. Votto did not play well in the one game playoff. Does that diminish anything he has accomplished during the regular season? No. He is an excellent player and is far from being the problem with this squad.

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    Re: So who's back next year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Alpha Zero View Post
    Good lord, not this again. Votto probably isn't very tradeable due to his contract, but to call him average is ignorant beyond belief. The guy is inside the top ten in the NL in every important offensive category. He is even tied for 11th in HR I believe. If he's average, then I want more of that please. Votto did not play well in the one game playoff. Does that diminish anything he has accomplished during the regular season? No. He is an excellent player and is far from being the problem with this squad.
    No worse than "the starting rotation" is horrid...we don't have 1 ace...etc. LOL. That is hilarious. The only thing that got the Reds to 90 wins. And another guy knocking one of the three great hitters in the midst of abysmal underperformance. Who do they blame? The ones who got them there.
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