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Thread: Trade rumor thread

  1. #451
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Yes, I understand on base skills are very important. The problem is it will be difficult to trade Mike Leake for a high obp hitter. Trading Mike Leake for a left fielder who hit 30 home runs in back to back seasons though + a good defensive outfielder in Bourgos sounds good to me.

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  3. #452
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Trumbo had a .234 BA last year, which played a big part in how low his OBP was last year. Frankly, I don't want any more poor hitters in this lineup. We have enough of them already.

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  5. #453
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Don't want Trumbo, I'd take Boujos in the right deal. Halos are desperate for pitching. I think if Walt's dead set on ditching on BP, then Kendrick's name should come up.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  6. #454
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    This is from the Star-Telegram:

    Profar was in the lineup often this season, but not every day as the Rangers’ super-utility man. Incumbents Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus continued to get the majority of the playing time, and rightfully so.

    But the Rangers want Profar to play every day in 2014, at one position, and something is going to have to give to make that happen. Though Kinsler still has four years and $62 million remaining on his contract, if any Rangers player is going to be traded his off-season, it’s him.

    The Rangers might have to eat as much as half of the money owed to their three-time All-Star to move him, and other teams in need of a second baseman might first try to get free agent Robinson Cano and Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips, who is said to be available.

    If Kinsler isn’t traded, the Rangers think they can get Profar regular at-bats with the same role he had in 2013. But the preferred route is regular at-bats at second base, one of several positions in flux as the Rangers reshape the roster the next few months.

    Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/10...#storylink=cpy
    I agree with the sentiments from this Dallas paper.

    * Profar will cost a ton (not just Bailey)
    * Kinsler could be moved (yay! come to Cincinnati!)
    * Profar will play 2b due to Andrus (who has an awful contract)

  7. #455
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    And I guess Profar is hitting near .500 in the summer league. He's going to be good and he's going to be a Ranger.

  8. #456
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    This is from the Star-Telegram:



    I agree with the sentiments from this Dallas paper.

    * Profar will cost a ton (not just Bailey)
    * Kinsler could be moved (yay! come to Cincinnati!)
    * Profar will play 2b due to Andrus (who has an awful contract)
    I see the Rangers alot. That rotation is thin. Darvish is an uber-stud, Holland is more than solid. After that you have a very young Martin and zip. A lot of question marks and guys returning from serious arm injuries. Bailey makes a ton of sense for them. Pitchers that switch leagues generally do better than hitters that do the same. Bailey is better than Holland, slots in as a #2 in that rotation, and makes that rotation stack up with the A's a lot better. The problem with shipping Kinsler is he has some health issues. A team getting him will demand the Rangers eat a lot of that contract, give them almost next to nothing in return or both. Plus he plays in a hitter's park and he hasn't really hit for the last two seasons. He's a plus defender, but I wouldn't trade Bailey for him. You don't get any payroll relief in that move, and it necessitates a BP trade. I'm not weakening the Reds rotation for a lateral move at 2B defensively, and a marginal offensive upgrade while adding 62M to the payroll. It doesn't make baseball or fiscal sense.

    No, it has to be Profar, or there really is no fit. Plus the Rangers have another problem to deal with... Nelson Cruz. If they go after him, there is a logjam in the OF. Rios is signed through 2014 with a club option for 2015. So what to do with Leonys Martin and David Murphy? Murphy is expendable, but they love Martin's defense. And then there is Gentry.

    The most likely scenario for the Rangers keeping Profar is to move either Gentry or Kinsler (probably Kinsler) to 1B. Profar goes to 2B. If they sign Cruz, very possible, then target Gentry for a far lesser player than Bailey and put him in LF.

    But you start the conversation with Bailey for Profar. They might bite. Bailey is exactly what the Rangers need. He's also exactly what the Reds need.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #457
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I see the Rangers alot. That rotation is thin. Darvish is an uber-stud, Holland is more than solid. After that you have a very young Martin and zip. A lot of question marks and guys returning from serious arm injuries. Bailey makes a ton of sense for them. Pitchers that switch leagues generally do better than hitters that do the same. Bailey is better than Holland, slots in as a #2 in that rotation, and makes that rotation stack up with the A's a lot better. The problem with shipping Kinsler is he has some health issues. A team getting him will demand the Rangers eat a lot of that contract, give them almost next to nothing in return or both. Plus he plays in a hitter's park and he hasn't really hit for the last two seasons. He's a plus defender, but I wouldn't trade Bailey for him. You don't get any payroll relief in that move, and it necessitates a BP trade. I'm not weakening the Reds rotation for a lateral move at 2B defensively, and a marginal offensive upgrade while adding 62M to the payroll. It doesn't make baseball or fiscal sense.

    No, it has to be Profar, or there really is no fit. Plus the Rangers have another problem to deal with... Nelson Cruz. If they go after him, there is a logjam in the OF. Rios is signed through 2014 with a club option for 2015. So what to do with Leonys Martin and David Murphy? Murphy is expendable, but they love Martin's defense. And then there is Gentry.

    The most likely scenario for the Rangers keeping Profar is to move either Gentry or Kinsler (probably Kinsler) to 1B. Profar goes to 2B. If they sign Cruz, very possible, then target Gentry for a far lesser player than Bailey and put him in LF.

    But you start the conversation with Bailey for Profar. They might bite. Bailey is exactly what the Rangers need. He's also exactly what the Reds need.
    If Profar is the bait, they are fishing for Price, who has 2 years of control, or other similar higher valued pitchers. Bailey would need to be their darling, who they would be satisfied garnering an extension window to add 3-5 years to his new contract. There are actually a few options for pitching out there that would allow them to keep Profar and acquire an equal or better pitcher than Bailey.

    The Kinsler vs Phillips debate is going to favor Kinsler offensively by a lot and Phillips defensively by a lot, although Kinsler isn't bad defensively. If you're looking to make a change, Kinsler is a higher end bat that could provide more consistency than even Phillips. If Phillips is going elsewhere, I'm praying for Kinsler, especially if they're eating some of the money. Bailey for Kinsler makes some sense to me. Bailey for Profar sounds nice, but it's just the start of what the Reds would need to give up. Maybe Bailey and Mez (the odd couple).

  10. #458
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I

    Plus the Rangers have another problem to deal with... Nelson Cruz. If they go after him, there is a logjam in the OF. Rios is signed through 2014 with a club option for 2015. So what to do with Leonys Martin and David Murphy? Murphy is expendable, but they love Martin's defense. And then there is Gentry.
    I'd really like to see Cruz in a Reds uniform if he could be had for 2-20 or 3-30.If we don't have the money for Choo, Cruz would be a good backup plan.

  11. #459
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Originally Posted by junkhead
    People just love the long ball and they always say their team needs a power bat.

    "On-base skills translate to run-scoring much more than slugging skills."
    The equation for wRC+ is:

    (((wOBA – lgwOBA) / wOBAScale) + (lgR/PA)) * PA


    The equation for wOBA is:
    wOBA = (0.69×uBB + 0.72×HBP + 0.89×1B + 1.26×2B + 1.60×3B + 2.08×HR + 0.25×SB -0.50×CS) / PA

    wOBA was constructed with the weights from the run expectancy table, which is somewhat flawed logic and based on many assumptions.

    So naturally, the greater OBP is, the greater wRC+ is. That doesn't necessarily prove anything.

    I'm not saying OBP is bad, of course it's great. But there are far too many assumptions made in the these formulas.

    1. The value of the stolen base is not calculated correctly (Run expectancy analysis is flawed)
    2. They assume every at bat is the same conditions. For example. Bottom of the ninth, bases loaded. Votto at bat. It's assumed Votto will be pitched the same and have the same chance of success as any other at bat. Maybe this is true, maybe it isn't. Based on what real pitchers say, there's a chance Votto is pitched differently than if the Reds are losing 10-0 in the 5th with bases empty and Votto up.
    3. Other things which are difficult to measure are not in the formula.

    I'm not saying wRC+ or wOBA is useless. It's another tool to look at.
    But these are not gospel truths, as they are often proclaimed to be.
    We don't know the whole picture.

    Even the stats sites say so:
    To solve this problem Tom Tango created wOBA, which attempts to value each potential situation in regards to its chance of resulting in a run scored.
    http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/16/sa...training-woba/
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  13. #460
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I see the Rangers alot. That rotation is thin. Darvish is an uber-stud, Holland is more than solid. After that you have a very young Martin and zip. A lot of question marks and guys returning from serious arm injuries. Bailey makes a ton of sense for them. Pitchers that switch leagues generally do better than hitters that do the same. Bailey is better than Holland, slots in as a #2 in that rotation, and makes that rotation stack up with the A's a lot better.
    If that's true about their rotation, then why wouldn't they just sign, say, Bronson Arroyo rather than give up a guy who was the #1 prospect in baseball a year ago? If you were a Rangers fan, that's exactly what you would say to somebody proposing a Bailey > Profar trade. I could see it if Bailey had 2-3 years of team control left, but as it stands he's a rental, and not a particularly cheap one at that.

    Plus the Rangers have another problem to deal with... Nelson Cruz. If they go after him, there is a logjam in the OF. Rios is signed through 2014 with a club option for 2015. So what to do with Leonys Martin and David Murphy? Murphy is expendable, but they love Martin's defense. And then there is Gentry.
    Gentry and Martin make a good platoon. If they bring back Cruz (which I think they will), then Rios becomes the DH. If they shift Beltre to LF and start Profar at 3B, then they trade Murphy. Under neither scenario are they going to want to move Profar. Unless they think he's not all that great, in which case why do we want him?
    Last edited by kpresidente; 10-30-2013 at 03:29 PM.

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  15. #461
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    I doubt the Rangers would move Beltre to LF

  16. #462
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    If that's true about their rotation, then why wouldn't they just sign, say, Bronson Arroyo rather than give up a guy who was the #1 prospect in baseball a year ago? If you were a Rangers fan, that's exactly what you would say to somebody proposing a Bailey > Profar trade. I could see it if Bailey had 2-3 years of team control left, but as it stands he's a rental, and not a particularly cheap one at that.
    Because Bronson is 36, and that park is a launching pad in the dog days. It tends to get hot in Texas. Bailey is younger, can be signed for a bit of a long term deal into his age prime years. If I were Texas, I'd be all over it if I thought I could sign Bailey to a 5 year deal. The Giants just gave Lincecum 2 years 35M. The last two years, Bailey has been better than big time Timmy-Jim. Similar K rates, but Bailey has been better at keeping guys off base, and the NL West has a few pitcher's parks for Timmy to feast on. Arroyo at 36 plus the heat doesn't make sense unless it is in addition to getting a stud starter like Bailey. And yes, that is what Bailey has been turning into, a stud #1 starter.
    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Gentry and Martin make a good platoon. If they bring back Cruz (which I think they will), then Rios becomes the DH. If they shift Beltre to LF and start Profar at 3B, then they trade Murphy. Under neither scenario are they going to want to move Profar. Unless they think he's not all that great, in which case why do we want him?
    I bet the Royals thought Wil Myers was pretty great. And they traded him. You sometimes have to deal from strength to shore up a weakness. The rotation is a weakness for the Rangers.
    Last edited by TRF; 11-05-2013 at 12:30 PM.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  17. #463
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Yankees have asked about Phillips price is steep
    http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/...-be-very-steep

  18. #464
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfan1995 View Post
    Yankees have asked about Phillips price is steep
    http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/...-be-very-steep
    As it should be right now.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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  20. #465
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    I wish I could understand why a Reds fan would want to trade Brandon Phillips, but I don't.

    As a Cardinals fan, I'd LOVE it if the Reds traded BP.

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