Trade rumor thread

[Will M]

Profar was just 20 years old this year. But he also stunk up the heart of Texas. His ceiling is Barry Larkin. His floor is a utility infielder. Not every top prospect turns into gold. Just look at BA's top 10 lists from recent years. For fun I pulled up the 2008 list.
1) Bruce
2) Longoria
3) Joba
4) Bucholz
5) Rasmus
6) Maybin
7) Kershaw
8) Franklin Morales
9) Bailey
10) Price

Some real stars here. But also some duds.

I think that top prospects are nice but a bird in the hand is worth 2 prospects in the bush. Also since Profar has not hit the ground running I think his value is not the same as it would have been 1 year ago.

I think Texas would be thrilled to get Bailey with a 48 hour window to extend in exchange for Profar. They have money. They need talent. And right now Bailey is really good whereas Profar is not so good.

In fact I'd ask for Profar & Gentry in exchange for Bailey with 48 hours to extend him.

[Mitri]

Profar seems to be very much available, especially after hearing news that they will make a run at Cano. With Kinsler and Andrus locked up for 5+ years each, and a potential move to 1B for Kinsler if Cano is signed, Daniels has already admitted that there might not be room for Profar. They need a C and SP. I think Bailey + Mesoraco might get it done; adding Mes solidifies a thin position for the team and injects a dosage of youth that they'll need in the coming years. Adding Profar for Cincinnati makes for one very intriguing 1-2 punch in up-the-middle guys. Thoughts of Hamilton and Profar at the top of the order, not to mention playing elite defense at the two most premium positions, under team control for the next 5-6 years, makes me giddy.

If Walt could make this deal, and sign a guy like Salty to a 3-year deal, would you do it?

[TRF]

I don't trade Bailey AND Mesorocco. I'd do Bailey for Profar though.

The Reds haven't done too well in developing or even having a catcher. I don't deal the Reds top two catching prospects within 2 years of each other.

[redsfandan]

Profar seems to be very much available, especially after hearing news that they will make a run at Cano. With Kinsler and Andrus locked up for 5+ years each, and a potential move to 1B for Kinsler if Cano is signed, Daniels has already admitted that there might not be room for Profar. They need a C and SP. I think Bailey + Mesoraco might get it done; adding Mes solidifies a thin position for the team and injects a dosage of youth that they'll need in the coming years. Adding Profar for Cincinnati makes for one very intriguing 1-2 punch in up-the-middle guys. Thoughts of Hamilton and Profar at the top of the order, not to mention playing elite defense at the two most premium positions, under team control for the next 5-6 years, makes me giddy.

If Walt could make this deal, and sign a guy like Salty to a 3-year deal, would you do it?

Bailey and a couple of prospects (Henry Rodriguez) I'd do.

But, I'd rather hold onto Mes and deal Hanigan instead.

edit: if you pair Hanigan with Bailey in a hypothetical deal then TX would have to add something to their side as well.

[Mitri]

Some of you are undervaluing Profar's value. Yes, his star has waned a bit with a sub par showing (in his age 20 season, I think most GMs will give him a mulligan), but the kid is still one of the top SS prospects in the world, and if one year of Homer Bailey plus a non-prospect like HRod nets Profar I will eat my shoe.

Texas would want something more than a one-year rental of a SP of Bailey's caliber, even if an extension seems likely. My guess is Mesoraco is still a guy other teams covet. He'd fit in nicely with the Rangers, and if I'm Walt I would see if Daniels bites and finds a short-term solution at the position until the next generation (Barnhart, Ortiz) is ready.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I'd hate to see Bailey go, but that is deal that makes a ton of sense for both teams.

I think it makes a ton of sense for Texas....not the Reds. Profar didn't exactly set the world on fire against MLB pitching. We've got Cozart under control for quite a while IIRC so there's no hurry to push him out. We've got Phillips already under control and there's no indication that Profar can out hit EITHER Brandon or Zach at the MLB level. I'm not saying he can't....I actually think he will. But it's not a slam dunk.

That being said...why does it make sense for the Reds to deal Homer? It makes MORE sense to extend him. Cueto has health issues. Bronson looks like he's got one foot out the door. Cingrani shows promise, but he's far from a sure thing as the league hasn't had a chance to adjust to him yet. Deal Homer and have even ONE starter get hurt....and you're in trouble.

Just for idle speculation...let's say the deal DOES happen.

Cueto gets hurt and misses half the season....not far out of the realm of possibility. Bronson goes elsewhere. Our rotation is this....

Latos
Leake
Cingrani
?
?

I don't care HOW good Profar turns out to be, we've grown into a serious contender based on defense and PITCHING. That rotation will NOT get it done. Even if Cueto IS healthy, it still won't get it done. We need Homer. We should be dealing NO starting pitchers. If Arroyo decides to move on, so be it. I can deal with the Reds counting on Tony to replace Bronson....but not TWO starters.

[BungleBengals]

I think it makes a ton of sense for Texas....not the Reds. Profar didn't exactly set the world on fire against MLB pitching. We've got Cozart under control for quite a while IIRC so there's no hurry to push him out. We've got Phillips already under control and there's no indication that Profar can out hit EITHER Brandon or Zach at the MLB level. I'm not saying he can't....I actually think he will. But it's not a slam dunk.

That being said...why does it make sense for the Reds to deal Homer? It makes MORE sense to extend him. Cueto has health issues. Bronson looks like he's got one foot out the door. Cingrani shows promise, but he's far from a sure thing as the league hasn't had a chance to adjust to him yet. Deal Homer and have even ONE starter get hurt....and you're in trouble.

Just for idle speculation...let's say the deal DOES happen.

Cueto gets hurt and misses half the season....not far out of the realm of possibility. Bronson goes elsewhere. Our rotation is this....

Latos
Leake
Cingrani
?
?

I don't care HOW good Profar turns out to be, we've grown into a serious contender based on defense and PITCHING. That rotation will NOT get it done. Even if Cueto IS healthy, it still won't get it done. We need Homer. We should be dealing NO starting pitchers. If Arroyo decides to move on, so be it. I can deal with the Reds counting on Tony to replace Bronson....but not TWO starters.

Homer has shown no sign of signing an extension with us and he will be expensive next year through arb (made $5.3M this year). Trade him while you can still get something for him, especially a team controlled, cost effective, former number one prospect who can play IF and OF, and perhaps be your future number 2 hitter. I would definitely do that. We have Latos, Leake, Cingrani, and Cueto. Chance at getting Bronson back, if not there are plently of stop gap FA's out there too. We only need a 5th to play maybe one year or less depending on Stephenson's development.

[redsfandan]

Since the guy that most wanted him to stay in the bullpen is now gone I don't think we can assume that there's no chance that Chapman could start for the Reds.

[757690]

I really like Profar, but there's a good chance if he's an MLB starter next year, he puts up similar production to Cozart. He's only 20, and still has a lot to learn.

[Big Klu]

I would actively look to trade Chapman this offseason.

If Dusty was still manager, I'd agree. But if Price gets it, I have confidence he can convert a Chapman back to a starter, in which case, I'd keep Chapman.

Since the guy that most wanted him to stay in the bullpen is now gone I don't think we can assume that there's no chance that Chapman could start for the Reds.

I disagree. The guy who most wanted Chapman to stay in the pen is still here. His name is Aroldis Chapman.

[Marc D]

If the Yankees lose Cano how about Phillips and Bailey to NYY for their top two OF prospects?

Reds need position prospects, seems like it could be a decent match.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Homer has shown no sign of signing an extension with us and he will be expensive next year through arb (made $5.3M this year). Trade him while you can still get something for him, especially a team controlled, cost effective, former number one prospect who can play IF and OF, and perhaps be your future number 2 hitter. I would definitely do that. We have Latos, Leake, Cingrani, and Cueto. Chance at getting Bronson back, if not there are plently of stop gap FA's out there too. We only need a 5th to play maybe one year or less depending on Stephenson's development.

Homer has shown no sign of signing an extension to the media or fans. We have NO CLUE what his intentions are behind closed doors. Most of the media is still basing this theory on the comments he made like 3 years ago about the ballpark. Lots of things have changed in 3 years for Homer Bailey.

Let me put it this way, for a team that is built around pitching and defense...you make sure those 2 things are fortified BEFORE you look to fix other items. You don't sacrifice those 2 things in order to fix other things. Those two facets of the game have to meet expectations first...then if you have some extra parts you can still deal, fine. But don't scrap the rotation to slightly improve our SS production (or whichever slot you're looking at).

If it comes down to it and Homer let's the club know that he intends to look elsewhere...fine. THEN you look to deal him but you don't do so without bringing back a pitcher to REPLACE him.

[RedTeamGo!]

If the Yankees lose Cano how about Phillips and Bailey to NYY for their top two OF prospects?

Reds need position prospects, seems like it could be a decent match.

Who are their two top OF prospects?

[RedlegJake]

If the Yankees lose Cano how about Phillips and Bailey to NYY for their top two OF prospects?

Reds need position prospects, seems like it could be a decent match.

Why? The Reds best prospects beyond pitching are Winker, Ervin, YR, Hamilton - all outfielders. They need infield prospects where the sole guy standing is SMB.

[WildcatFan]

All the rumors in this official thread have been started by the people posting in this official thread.