Originally Posted by TRF
I

Plus the Rangers have another problem to deal with... Nelson Cruz. If they go after him, there is a logjam in the OF. Rios is signed through 2014 with a club option for 2015. So what to do with Leonys Martin and David Murphy? Murphy is expendable, but they love Martin's defense. And then there is Gentry.
I'd really like to see Cruz in a Reds uniform if he could be had for 2-20 or 3-30.If we don't have the money for Choo, Cruz would be a good backup plan.

People just love the long ball and they always say their team needs a power bat.

"On-base skills translate to run-scoring much more than slugging skills."
The equation for wRC+ is:

(((wOBA – lgwOBA) / wOBAScale) + (lgR/PA)) * PA

The equation for wOBA is:
wOBA = (0.69×uBB + 0.72×HBP + 0.89×1B + 1.26×2B + 1.60×3B + 2.08×HR + 0.25×SB -0.50×CS) / PA

wOBA was constructed with the weights from the run expectancy table, which is somewhat flawed logic and based on many assumptions.

So naturally, the greater OBP is, the greater wRC+ is. That doesn't necessarily prove anything.

I'm not saying OBP is bad, of course it's great. But there are far too many assumptions made in the these formulas.

1. The value of the stolen base is not calculated correctly (Run expectancy analysis is flawed)
2. They assume every at bat is the same conditions. For example. Bottom of the ninth, bases loaded. Votto at bat. It's assumed Votto will be pitched the same and have the same chance of success as any other at bat. Maybe this is true, maybe it isn't. Based on what real pitchers say, there's a chance Votto is pitched differently than if the Reds are losing 10-0 in the 5th with bases empty and Votto up.
3. Other things which are difficult to measure are not in the formula.

I'm not saying wRC+ or wOBA is useless. It's another tool to look at.
But these are not gospel truths, as they are often proclaimed to be.
We don't know the whole picture.

Even the stats sites say so:
To solve this problem Tom Tango created wOBA, which attempts to value each potential situation in regards to its chance of resulting in a run scored.
http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/16/sa...training-woba/

4. ## Likes:

AmarilloRed (10-30-2013)

Originally Posted by TRF
I see the Rangers alot. That rotation is thin. Darvish is an uber-stud, Holland is more than solid. After that you have a very young Martin and zip. A lot of question marks and guys returning from serious arm injuries. Bailey makes a ton of sense for them. Pitchers that switch leagues generally do better than hitters that do the same. Bailey is better than Holland, slots in as a #2 in that rotation, and makes that rotation stack up with the A's a lot better.
If that's true about their rotation, then why wouldn't they just sign, say, Bronson Arroyo rather than give up a guy who was the #1 prospect in baseball a year ago? If you were a Rangers fan, that's exactly what you would say to somebody proposing a Bailey > Profar trade. I could see it if Bailey had 2-3 years of team control left, but as it stands he's a rental, and not a particularly cheap one at that.

Plus the Rangers have another problem to deal with... Nelson Cruz. If they go after him, there is a logjam in the OF. Rios is signed through 2014 with a club option for 2015. So what to do with Leonys Martin and David Murphy? Murphy is expendable, but they love Martin's defense. And then there is Gentry.
Gentry and Martin make a good platoon. If they bring back Cruz (which I think they will), then Rios becomes the DH. If they shift Beltre to LF and start Profar at 3B, then they trade Murphy. Under neither scenario are they going to want to move Profar. Unless they think he's not all that great, in which case why do we want him?

6. ## Likes:

Revering4Blue (10-30-2013)

I doubt the Rangers would move Beltre to LF

Originally Posted by kpresidente
If that's true about their rotation, then why wouldn't they just sign, say, Bronson Arroyo rather than give up a guy who was the #1 prospect in baseball a year ago? If you were a Rangers fan, that's exactly what you would say to somebody proposing a Bailey > Profar trade. I could see it if Bailey had 2-3 years of team control left, but as it stands he's a rental, and not a particularly cheap one at that.
Because Bronson is 36, and that park is a launching pad in the dog days. It tends to get hot in Texas. Bailey is younger, can be signed for a bit of a long term deal into his age prime years. If I were Texas, I'd be all over it if I thought I could sign Bailey to a 5 year deal. The Giants just gave Lincecum 2 years 35M. The last two years, Bailey has been better than big time Timmy-Jim. Similar K rates, but Bailey has been better at keeping guys off base, and the NL West has a few pitcher's parks for Timmy to feast on. Arroyo at 36 plus the heat doesn't make sense unless it is in addition to getting a stud starter like Bailey. And yes, that is what Bailey has been turning into, a stud #1 starter.
Originally Posted by kpresidente
Gentry and Martin make a good platoon. If they bring back Cruz (which I think they will), then Rios becomes the DH. If they shift Beltre to LF and start Profar at 3B, then they trade Murphy. Under neither scenario are they going to want to move Profar. Unless they think he's not all that great, in which case why do we want him?
I bet the Royals thought Wil Myers was pretty great. And they traded him. You sometimes have to deal from strength to shore up a weakness. The rotation is a weakness for the Rangers.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/...-be-very-steep

Originally Posted by redsfan1995
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/...-be-very-steep
As it should be right now.

11. ## Likes:

Crumbley (11-06-2013),MattyHo4Life (11-05-2013)

I wish I could understand why a Reds fan would want to trade Brandon Phillips, but I don't.

As a Cardinals fan, I'd LOVE it if the Reds traded BP.

13. ## Likes:

757690 (11-05-2013),Benihana (11-05-2013),Big Klu (11-05-2013),dubc47834 (11-06-2013),REDREAD (11-06-2013)

Originally Posted by redsfan1995
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/...-be-very-steep
Precious few teams have \$300M to spend on Cano. Why not float interest in some available guys to drive the price down, even a tiny bit?

Originally Posted by TRF
Because Bronson is 36, and that park is a launching pad in the dog days. It tends to get hot in Texas. Bailey is younger, can be signed for a bit of a long term deal into his age prime years. If I were Texas, I'd be all over it if I thought I could sign Bailey to a 5 year deal. The Giants just gave Lincecum 2 years 35M. The last two years, Bailey has been better than big time Timmy-Jim. Similar K rates, but Bailey has been better at keeping guys off base, and the NL West has a few pitcher's parks for Timmy to feast on. Arroyo at 36 plus the heat doesn't make sense unless it is in addition to getting a stud starter like Bailey. And yes, that is what Bailey has been turning into, a stud #1 starter.
He was just using Arroyo as an example. Signing Bailey to a 5-year pact would cost more than say, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, or Matt Garza. So if Texas is so desperate for SP, why wouldn't they just sign one of those guys and keep the best prospect in the game? These Bailey-for-Profar suggestions are beyond absurd. Let it die. If they do trade him, it will be for a guy of the David Price or Oscar Taveras variety, not a rental #2 pitcher that can be found on the FA market.

Originally Posted by TRF
I bet the Royals thought Wil Myers was pretty great. And they traded him. You sometimes have to deal from strength to shore up a weakness. The rotation is a weakness for the Rangers.
And the Royals were immediately blasted by pretty much everyone as soon as they made that deal.

16. ## Likes:

dubc47834 (11-06-2013)

Bailey is better than those three pitchers. Better by a lot in fact.
Here is the list of potential free agent SP's from BP http://www.baseballprospectus.com/co...ents-for-2014/

(* – player whose current contract includes 2014 option.)
Code:
```Starting Pitchers
Bronson Arroyo    Scott Baker       Erik Bedard       Nick Blackburn *
A.J. Burnett      Chris Capuano *   Chris Carpenter   Bruce Chen
Bartolo Colon     Aaron Cook        Jorge De La Rosa  Scott Feldman
Gavin Floyd       Jeff Francis      Armando Galarraga Jon Garland
Matt Garza        Roy Halladay *    Jason Hammel      Aaron Harang *
Rich Harden       Dan Haren         Roberto Hernandez Tim Hudson
Phil Hughes       Ubaldo Jimenez *  Josh Johnson      Jeff Karstens
Hiroki Kuroda     John Lannan       Jon Lester *      Colby Lewis
Ted Lilly         Derek Lowe        Paul Maholm       Shaun Marcum
Jason Marquis     Daisuke Matsuzaka Brett Myers *     Ricky Nolasco
Mike Pelfrey      Clayton Richard   Wandy Rodriguez * Jonathan Sanchez
Ervin Santana     Johan Santana *   Joe Saunders *    James Shields *
Tim Stauffer      Jason Vargas      Ryan Vogelsong *  Edinson Volquez
Tsuyoshi Wada *   Chien-Ming Wang   Chris Young       Barry Zito```
I don't see the guy on here that's just hitting his age prime years, coming off a season where he had the 13th most K's and 16th lowest WHIP of all starters. That's an ACE. Ubaldo had the closest season to him, except a much higher WHIP. 1.30 to Homer's 1.12. 2013 was a huge bounceback for him after two very POOR years. Meanwhile, Bailey has been getting better every year, the past three years. He's also two years younger.

Not everyone blasted the Royals, and I thought it was exactly the type of trade they needed to make. The Royals have offense. They needed pitching. had they not made that trade, all 2013 would have been is yet another year to collect a top ten draft pick. Instead, they were in the WC race most of the year. They picked up the option on Shields. Davis was a bit of a bust as a starter, but was fairly dominant as a reliever.

My point is the Rangers have no place for Profar to play, especially once they sign Cruz, which in all likelihood they will do. So get as much as you can for him. Bailey makes the Rangers serious division contenders in a depleted rotation past Darvish.

18. ## Likes:

Originally Posted by TRF
Bailey is better than those three pitchers. Better by a lot in fact.
Here is the list of potential free agent SP's from BP http://www.baseballprospectus.com/co...ents-for-2014/

(* – player whose current contract includes 2014 option.)
Code:
```Starting Pitchers
Bronson Arroyo    Scott Baker       Erik Bedard       Nick Blackburn *
A.J. Burnett      Chris Capuano *   Chris Carpenter   Bruce Chen
Bartolo Colon     Aaron Cook        Jorge De La Rosa  Scott Feldman
Gavin Floyd       Jeff Francis      Armando Galarraga Jon Garland
Matt Garza        Roy Halladay *    Jason Hammel      Aaron Harang *
Rich Harden       Dan Haren         Roberto Hernandez Tim Hudson
Phil Hughes       Ubaldo Jimenez *  Josh Johnson      Jeff Karstens
Hiroki Kuroda     John Lannan       Jon Lester *      Colby Lewis
Ted Lilly         Derek Lowe        Paul Maholm       Shaun Marcum
Jason Marquis     Daisuke Matsuzaka Brett Myers *     Ricky Nolasco
Mike Pelfrey      Clayton Richard   Wandy Rodriguez * Jonathan Sanchez
Ervin Santana     Johan Santana *   Joe Saunders *    James Shields *
Tim Stauffer      Jason Vargas      Ryan Vogelsong *  Edinson Volquez
Tsuyoshi Wada *   Chien-Ming Wang   Chris Young       Barry Zito```
I don't see the guy on here that's just hitting his age prime years, coming off a season where he had the 13th most K's and 16th lowest WHIP of all starters. That's an ACE. Ubaldo had the closest season to him, except a much higher WHIP. 1.30 to Homer's 1.12. 2013 was a huge bounceback for him after two very POOR years. Meanwhile, Bailey has been getting better every year, the past three years. He's also two years younger.

Not everyone blasted the Royals, and I thought it was exactly the type of trade they needed to make. The Royals have offense. They needed pitching. had they not made that trade, all 2013 would have been is yet another year to collect a top ten draft pick. Instead, they were in the WC race most of the year. They picked up the option on Shields. Davis was a bit of a bust as a starter, but was fairly dominant as a reliever.

My point is the Rangers have no place for Profar to play, especially once they sign Cruz, which in all likelihood they will do. So get as much as you can for him. Bailey makes the Rangers serious division contenders in a depleted rotation past Darvish.

Yep. The Royals are the opposite of the Reds. They can produce position players but not pitchers. Trading with them would be a good move if we're dead set on dealing Bailey.

I think teams interested in trading for pitching would take a shot at Price before they would Bailey. But after Price is traded, there's very few great pitchers available. Bailey could get us quite the haul and allow us to rebuild the top end of the farm system.

Reading rumors that the Rays will be shopping Matt Joyce now that DeJesus has been resigned. Joyce would be nice platoon partner with Ludwick and a potential breakout in GAB if used properly. A bit of a defensive lug but can take a walk and has plenty of pop. Salary projected to be in the \$3.7MM range.

What would it take in a trade?

21. ## Likes:

*BaseClogger* (11-06-2013),Billy Hamilton's Legs (11-06-2013),Edd Roush (11-06-2013),marcshoe (11-06-2013),mth123 (11-07-2013)

Originally Posted by Mitri
Reading rumors that the Rays will be shopping Matt Joyce now that DeJesus has been resigned. Joyce would be nice platoon partner with Ludwick and a potential breakout in GAB if used properly. A bit of a defensive lug but can take a walk and has plenty of pop. Salary projected to be in the \$3.7MM range.

What would it take in a trade?

Originally Posted by Mitri
Reading rumors that the Rays will be shopping Matt Joyce now that DeJesus has been resigned. Joyce would be nice platoon partner with Ludwick and a potential breakout in GAB if used properly. A bit of a defensive lug but can take a walk and has plenty of pop. Salary projected to be in the \$3.7MM range.

What would it take in a trade?
Good target. Because we are talking about Tampa Bay here, clearing
\$3.7 Mil is the key. My guess is something toolsy with upside like Junior Arias would get it done.

A similar older player would be Jason Kubel who is a free agent, he makes a very nice LH platoon partner, and I can't imagine he would cost more than \$3.7 Mil on a one year deal, probably less given how bad last year was with him. He needs a chance to get healthy and exploit matchups.

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