(((wOBA – lgwOBA) / wOBAScale) + (lgR/PA)) * PA
The equation for wOBA is:
wOBA = (0.69×uBB + 0.72×HBP + 0.89×1B + 1.26×2B + 1.60×3B + 2.08×HR + 0.25×SB -0.50×CS) / PA
wOBA was constructed with the weights from the run expectancy table, which is somewhat flawed logic and based on many assumptions.
So naturally, the greater OBP is, the greater wRC+ is. That doesn't necessarily prove anything.
I'm not saying OBP is bad, of course it's great. But there are far too many assumptions made in the these formulas.
1. The value of the stolen base is not calculated correctly (Run expectancy analysis is flawed)
2. They assume every at bat is the same conditions. For example. Bottom of the ninth, bases loaded. Votto at bat. It's assumed Votto will be pitched the same and have the same chance of success as any other at bat. Maybe this is true, maybe it isn't. Based on what real pitchers say, there's a chance Votto is pitched differently than if the Reds are losing 10-0 in the 5th with bases empty and Votto up.
3. Other things which are difficult to measure are not in the formula.
I'm not saying wRC+ or wOBA is useless. It's another tool to look at.
But these are not gospel truths, as they are often proclaimed to be.
We don't know the whole picture.
Even the stats sites say so:
http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/16/sa...training-woba/To solve this problem Tom Tango created wOBA, which attempts to value each potential situation in regards to its chance of resulting in a run scored.
Thank you Walt and Bob for bringing winning baseball back to Cincy -- it was nice while it lasted..
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Gentry and Martin make a good platoon. If they bring back Cruz (which I think they will), then Rios becomes the DH. If they shift Beltre to LF and start Profar at 3B, then they trade Murphy. Under neither scenario are they going to want to move Profar. Unless they think he's not all that great, in which case why do we want him?Plus the Rangers have another problem to deal with... Nelson Cruz. If they go after him, there is a logjam in the OF. Rios is signed through 2014 with a club option for 2015. So what to do with Leonys Martin and David Murphy? Murphy is expendable, but they love Martin's defense. And then there is Gentry.
Last edited by kpresidente; 10-30-2013 at 04:29 PM.
I doubt the Rangers would move Beltre to LF
Last edited by TRF; 11-05-2013 at 01:30 PM.
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
The eyes never lie.
Yankees have asked about Phillips price is steep
I wish I could understand why a Reds fan would want to trade Brandon Phillips, but I don't.
As a Cardinals fan, I'd LOVE it if the Reds traded BP.
Bailey is better than those three pitchers. Better by a lot in fact.
Here is the list of potential free agent SP's from BP http://www.baseballprospectus.com/co...ents-for-2014/
(* – player whose current contract includes 2014 option.)
I don't see the guy on here that's just hitting his age prime years, coming off a season where he had the 13th most K's and 16th lowest WHIP of all starters. That's an ACE. Ubaldo had the closest season to him, except a much higher WHIP. 1.30 to Homer's 1.12. 2013 was a huge bounceback for him after two very POOR years. Meanwhile, Bailey has been getting better every year, the past three years. He's also two years younger.Code:Starting Pitchers Bronson Arroyo Scott Baker Erik Bedard Nick Blackburn * A.J. Burnett Chris Capuano * Chris Carpenter Bruce Chen Bartolo Colon Aaron Cook Jorge De La Rosa Scott Feldman Gavin Floyd Jeff Francis Armando Galarraga Jon Garland Matt Garza Roy Halladay * Jason Hammel Aaron Harang * Rich Harden Dan Haren Roberto Hernandez Tim Hudson Phil Hughes Ubaldo Jimenez * Josh Johnson Jeff Karstens Hiroki Kuroda John Lannan Jon Lester * Colby Lewis Ted Lilly Derek Lowe Paul Maholm Shaun Marcum Jason Marquis Daisuke Matsuzaka Brett Myers * Ricky Nolasco Mike Pelfrey Clayton Richard Wandy Rodriguez * Jonathan Sanchez Ervin Santana Johan Santana * Joe Saunders * James Shields * Tim Stauffer Jason Vargas Ryan Vogelsong * Edinson Volquez Tsuyoshi Wada * Chien-Ming Wang Chris Young Barry Zito
Not everyone blasted the Royals, and I thought it was exactly the type of trade they needed to make. The Royals have offense. They needed pitching. had they not made that trade, all 2013 would have been is yet another year to collect a top ten draft pick. Instead, they were in the WC race most of the year. They picked up the option on Shields. Davis was a bit of a bust as a starter, but was fairly dominant as a reliever.
My point is the Rangers have no place for Profar to play, especially once they sign Cruz, which in all likelihood they will do. So get as much as you can for him. Bailey makes the Rangers serious division contenders in a depleted rotation past Darvish.
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
The eyes never lie.
Yep. The Royals are the opposite of the Reds. They can produce position players but not pitchers. Trading with them would be a good move if we're dead set on dealing Bailey.
I think teams interested in trading for pitching would take a shot at Price before they would Bailey. But after Price is traded, there's very few great pitchers available. Bailey could get us quite the haul and allow us to rebuild the top end of the farm system.
Reading rumors that the Rays will be shopping Matt Joyce now that DeJesus has been resigned. Joyce would be nice platoon partner with Ludwick and a potential breakout in GAB if used properly. A bit of a defensive lug but can take a walk and has plenty of pop. Salary projected to be in the $3.7MM range.
What would it take in a trade?
$3.7 Mil is the key. My guess is something toolsy with upside like Junior Arias would get it done.
A similar older player would be Jason Kubel who is a free agent, he makes a very nice LH platoon partner, and I can't imagine he would cost more than $3.7 Mil on a one year deal, probably less given how bad last year was with him. He needs a chance to get healthy and exploit matchups.
Hugs, smiling, and interactive Twitter accounts, don't mean winning baseball. Until this community understands that we are cursed to relive the madness.
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