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Thread: Trade rumor thread

  1. #166
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Volquez....with Price, in the bullpen, would be very interesting.
    Far too wild to be an effective reliever, maybe to start an inning but would you really want him coming in and working out of a jam?
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    Well, let me throw out my first slobber-knocker trade proposal of the offseason:

    Homer Bailey, Brandon Phillips and Ryan Ludwick to the Colorado Rockies for Carlos Gonzalez, D.J. LeMathieu and pitcher Tyler Chatwood.
    I'm the Reds?

    Deal.

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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    Well, let me throw out my first slobber-knocker trade proposal of the offseason:

    Homer Bailey, Brandon Phillips and Ryan Ludwick to the Colorado Rockies for Carlos Gonzalez, D.J. LeMathieu and pitcher Tyler Chatwood.
    Colorado would take on too much payroll for them to approve that trade. Bailey-10 million+ Ludwick 7.5 +Brandon 12 million=30 million Colorado's way. Gonzalez coming our way would reduce it to 20 million, but they already have 60 million in guaranteed contracts. Their budget was only 73 million last year. Even if they increase to 80 million, they still have to deal with the options and arb eligible and others.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    I'm not picking on Mth123 here, but in the "Reds resign Logan" thread, I asked..
    Who would be better than Logan at the same price? (The same argument could be made for Parra)
    Here was the list he gave me..
    Let's see how they did compared to Logan and Parra.


    Logan: got 2 years, 2.3 million, 55 IP 8.7 K/9 IP, Whip 1.255, 1.3 HR/9 IP
    Parra: got 1 year, 1 million, 46 IP, 11k/9 IP, whip 1.19, 1.0 HR/9 IP

    mth's list:
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...t=RaUCH&page=2

    Jon Rauch, got 1 year, $1 million. 16 IP of 7.56 ERA ball. Worse than Logan.

    Kyle Farnsworth, got 1 year, 1.25 million, 48 IP, 6.6 k/IP, 1.393 Whip, 1.2 HR/9 IP. So this guy
    is a pretty good comp to Logan, both in performance and 2013 salary.

    Juan Carlos Oviedo (RH): Got 1 year, 490k, 64 IP, whip 1.21, 7.7 K/IP, 1.1 HR/9. Again, I would say
    this guy is pretty close to Logan. A little less K/9 though. So I guess this move could've saved the Reds about 1/2 million.

    K-Rod, 22 IP, 11.5 K/9, whip 1.36, HR/9 2.0, No salary info on baseball reference.. Not sure if he got hurt or what? I'm going to say that Logan was better though, maybe someone in the know can tell me though..

    Brian Wilson, lost year for him, worse than Logan. Limited sample size, but he looked horrible when I saw him.

    Matt Capps, Looks like he did not play this year, although he's listed as a Twin.

    Brandon Lyon, 1 year, 750k, 34IP, k/9 = 6, hr/9 = .8, WHip = 1.63.. I think Logan had a better season.

    Rafael Perez, only 7.2 IP, I guess he got hurt..Salary listed at 2 million

    Manny Parra, I would say he was a good comp to our Parra

    Pedro Feliciano, 11 IP. no salary, but worse than Logan in small sample of performance

    Matt Lindstrom, 1 year, 2.8 million, 60.2 IP, 6.8 K/9, WHIP 1.434, .3 HR/9IP.. Now this is a guy that has a edge over Logan due to being stingy with the HR ball. Was he a better sign than Parra? Well, Lindstrom's numbers were better,but he's a RH pitcher. That said, this was a good pick. Although I will point out that he made more money than Parra and Logan combined.. I would've rather had him than Logan, but he wasn't necessarily a cheap signing.

    So, When I asked the question: Who would be better than Logan, I got a list of 11 names which included Parra.Two of them (Lindstrom and Parra) were better than Logan although Lindstrom was not cheap. Two more guys (Farnsworth and Oviedo) were comparable to Logan in performance. Farnsworth cost about the same as Logan. Oveido was cheaper.

    AGain, the entire point of this exercise was to see whether dumpster diving is really that profitable.
    Given the entire pool of FA pitchers, 11 were picked. 2 better than Logan, 2 about the same as Logan, 7 were worse or hurt.

    When you go through this exercise, why bother to churn the roster if you have guys like Logan and Parra that want to come back
    at a reasonable price. Price only has so much time.. Do you want him to spend his time with guys like Lecure and Hoover or do
    you want to burden him with 2-3 noobs every year? It just doesn't seem worth it to churn things up, given the results

    Now if someone wants to make a list for relievers the Reds should sign this year instead of Parra, please, be my guest.It will be intresting to evaluate after 2014 is over.
    Actually, this year I'd take Parra and Zach Duke too. Provided, of course, that you can get Parra for less than $2 Million and Duke for less than $1 Million.

    Let Hoover close, set-up with Simon, Lecure, Parra, Marshall, Broxton and have Duke be the loogy. Deal Aroldis for stuff you need. A decent young arm or two could be part of that return (need a couple of alternatives to Partch if Broxton and Marshall are toast and either a bat or some top kids who can be flipped for a bat or kept with the money going to re-sign Choo).

    I also think that Sharky Rogers and Tim Crabbe have a chance to contribute out of the pen at some point.

    Ondrusek needs to go though.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Actually, this year I'd take Parra and Zach Duke too. Provided, of course, that you can get Parra for less than $2 Million and Duke for less than $1 Million.

    Let Hoover close, set-up with Simon, Lecure, Parra, Marshall, Broxton and have Duke be the loogy. Deal Aroldis for stuff you need. A decent young arm or two could be part of that return (need a couple of alternatives to Partch if Broxton and Marshall are toast and either a bat or some top kids who can be flipped for a bat or kept with the money going to re-sign Choo).

    I also think that Sharky Rogers and Tim Crabbe have a chance to contribute out of the pen at some point.

    Ondrusek needs to go though.
    So Chapman goes. He's replaced by Zach Duke, with Sharky Rogers and Tim Crabbe in the wings.

    No thanks. I'll keep Aroldis and let the new manager decide how best to use him.

    I can see trading Bailey who is a year from free agency. But top end pitching is the life blood of a good team and you don't trade it until you have to.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-10-2013 at 10:50 PM.

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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    So Chapman goes. He's replaced by Zach Duke, with Sharky Rogers and Tim Crabbe in the wings.

    No thanks.

    I can see trading Bailey who is a year from free agency. But top end pitching is the life blood of a good team and you don't trade it until you have to.
    Except I don't think Bailey will net what you need and leaves a bigger hole as a starter with no replacement than Aroldis would as a closer who has Hoover ready in the wings.

    And you aren't replacing Aroldis with Duke, he's being replaced by Hoover who is being backfilled by depth. If they need to sign a cheaper reliever or two, OK. $11 Million going to Aroldis is a luxury IMO when the team needs to spend it on fixing it's offense.

    Who is the long time closer for the Cards? Isrighausen? Franklin? Motte? Mujica? No they just rotate them through and win anyway. Did the Pirates suffer by dealing Hanrahan? No they replaced him with a failed Melancon (and a multiple time cut-loose journeyman in Grilli). The Rays rotate them through. The Red Sox haven't had a steady presence there. The A's switch them out every year. Dealing these good closers away for talent and reallocating their funds seems to be a big part of what makes these teams successful IMO.

    I love Aroldis and think he's great, but if I had to pick between him and a couple of top end kids and the money to bring back Choo or a reasonable alternative (Ellsbury, Granderson, etc.) I let Hoover close and fix the roster.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #172
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Except I don't think Bailey will net what you need and leaves a bigger hole as a starter with no replacement than Aroldis would as a closer who has Hoover ready in the wings.

    And you aren't replacing Aroldis with Duke, he's being replaced by Hoover who is being backfilled by depth. If they need to sign a cheaper reliever or two, OK. $11 Million going to Aroldis is a luxury IMO when the team needs to spend it on fixing it's offense.

    Who is the long time closer for the Cards? Isrighausen? Franklin? Motte? Mujica? No they just rotate them through and win anyway. Did the Pirates suffer by dealing Hanrahan? No they replaced him with a failed Melancon (and a multiple time cut-loose journeyman in Grilli). The Rays rotate them through. The Red Sox haven't had a steady presence there. The A's switch them out every year. Dealing these good closers away for talent and reallocating their funds seems to be a big part of what makes these teams successful IMO.

    I love Aroldis and think he's great, but if I had to pick between him and a couple of top end kids and the money to bring back Choo or a reasonable alternative (Ellsbury, Granderson, etc.) I let Hoover close and fix the roster.
    We just completely disagree.

    First, the fact that Chapman has closed is completely irrelevant. Totally. He is a great arm and very effective. And proven so. His usage as a closer in the past is easily changed by the new manager.

    The more of these proven effective great arms you trade prematurely, the worse you will be. It is the last thing you trade, until (as perhaps with Bailey) you are facing free agency. Top flight pitching is like breathing -- it's the number one thing.

    In Chapman's case for all we know he could opt to stay a Red for five years. Even if not, no way do i trade him two years before he is free to (possibly) leave.

    Second, the Reds will lose Arroyo, probably Choo. They shouldn't pay Heisey. They should part with Hanigan. They could trade Bailey who is soon a free agent. Even Phillips could be traded. This all should give them flexibility to add some mid-level players who can boost the offense.

    The Reds big flaw was the huge drop off in hitting by their second tier hitters. That second tier of players can be improved with the Marlon Byrds of this world, and similar players. You do not need to trade Chapman to replenish the offense.

    The last thing you do is trade top flight proven effective arms who you still control. Absolutely last. High end pitchers are the key to winning.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-10-2013 at 11:29 PM.

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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    We just completely disagree.

    First, the fact that Chapman has closed is completely irrelevant. Totally. He is a great arm and very effective. And proven so. His usage as a closer in the past is easily changed by the new manager.

    The more of these proven effective great arms you trade prematurely, the worse you will be. It is the last thing you trade, until (as perhaps with Bailey) you are facing free agency.

    In Chapman's case for all we know he could opt to stay a Red for five years. No way do i trade him two years before he is free to (possibly) leave.

    Second, the Reds will lose Arroyo, probably Choo. They shouldn't pay Heisey. They should part with Hanigan. They could trade Bailey who is soon a free agent. This all should give them flexibility to add some mid-level players who can boost the offense.

    The Reds big flaw was the huge drop off in hitting by the second tier. That second tier of players can be improved with the Marlon Byrds of this world, and similar players. You do not need to trade Chapman to replenish the offense.

    The last thing you do is trade top flight proven effective arms who you still control. Absolutely last.
    But they are losing one of the first tier. He needs to be replaced in addition to upgrading the second tier. Aroldis is going to arb and will make $10 Million plus in 2014. That's a luxury for a team that has multiple needs elsewhere. The savings from Arroyo and Choo leaving is already spent. I absolutely agree about dropping Heisey and Hanigan, but if the Reds deal Bailey, it simply opens another hole. Cueto, Latos, Leake, Cingrani and who? If they deal Aroldis, I could easily see this team having a very effective pen without him. Hoover is ready IMO. Parra, Simon and Lecure are effective. Marshall and Broxton could very well be back. Effective guys for the underbelly of the pen can be had cheaply and this team has consistently found them (Simon, Parra, Hoover and Lecure are all examples of failed starters in the majors or minors who did it). The rotation has no such answers waiting in the wings once Homer is dealt. A year from now, Stephenson could probably take that spot. In 2014, the cupboard is bare (as it is at all of the positions on the field including CF IMO). The pen is the only place with depth and Chapman is the only name with a reasonable replacement who would actually bring anything back.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    But they are losing one of the first tier. He needs to be replaced in addition to upgrading the second tier. Aroldis is going to arb and will make $10 Million plus in 2014. That's a luxury for a team that has multiple needs elsewhere. The savings from Arroyo and Choo leaving is already spent. I absolutely agree about dropping Heisey and Hanigan, but if the Reds deal Bailey, it simply opens another hole. Cueto, Latos, Leake, Cingrani and who? If they deal Aroldis, I could easily see this team having a very effective pen without him. Hoover is ready IMO. Parra, Simon and Lecure are effective. Marshall and Broxton could very well be back. Effective guys for the underbelly of the pen can be had cheaply and this team has consistently found them (Simon, Parra, Hoover and Lecure are all examples of failed starters in the majors or minors who did it). The rotation has no such answers waiting in the wings once Homer is dealt. A year from now, Stephenson could probably take that spot. In 2014, the cupboard is bare (as it is at all of the positions on the field including CF IMO). The pen is the only place with depth and Chapman is the only name with a reasonable replacement who would actually bring anything back.
    The Reds can have an effective offense without adding stars. They can do it with mid-level players who hit better than current players.

    Pitching is more important. The Reds need to keep very good, effective pitchers.

    This board is too consumed with roles. As I've often said about him, I don't care if Chapman starts, closes, pitches middle relief or swings back and forth. I want him on the Reds pitching staff.

    Bailey arguably needs to be traded soon. One year left, no apparent desire to sign (perhaps). That's a different thing. But Chapman doesn't have that situation.

    Pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching. That's how you win, top flight pitching. To go over the top with offense make some smart moves to get mid-level hitters who can do as well or better than some of the current players. The Pirates did it with Byrd, Morneau, Russell Martin. Red Sox too.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-10-2013 at 11:52 PM.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The Reds can have an effective offense without adding stars. They can do it with mid-level players.

    Pitching is more important. The Reds need to keep very good, effective pitchers.

    This board is too consumed with roles. As I've often said about him, I don't care if Chapman starts, closes, pitches middle relief or swings back and forth. I want him on the Reds pitching staff.

    Bailey arguably needs to be traded soon. One year left, no apparent desire to sign (perhaps). That's a different thing. But Chapman doesn't have that situation.

    Pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching. That's how you win, top flight pitching. To go over the top with offense make some smart moves to get mid-level hitters who can do as well or better than some of the current players. The Pirates did it with Byrd, Morneau, Russell Martin. Red Sox too.
    Where we disagree is in two areas. One is that I think that the Reds are losing one of the top 3 or 4 offensive players in the NL from an offense that was already struggling. Upgrading SS or C from a .660 OPS to a .710 OPS isn't going to solve the problem. The team is losing a power bat who got on base 300+ times and need to keep or replace that just to break-even. I think that is harder to find than a guy to get saves.

    The second problem is that I think dealing Bailey weakens the pitching more than dealing Chapman does. IMO Chapman to the rotation is probably not going to happen. He wants to close and has an Edinson Volquez aura about him anyway IMO. Chapman being a successful starter is a much bigger question mark for me than the pen being effective without him. Want to deal Bailey and move Chapman to the rotation? I'm game I suppose, but it's a bigger gamble for 2014 than simply dealing Chapman and letting Bailey fill that role. I also don't think Bailey can bring back the talent that Chapman would for exactly the reasons you want to deal Bailey. Seems like the pen that I described with Hoover closing, Simon, Parra, Lecure, Marshall, Broxton, Duke and/or a cheap free agent or two would be the pen no matter which plan you follow. The question is which is the better rotation for 2014 - Latos, Cueto, Leake, Cingrani and Bailey or Latos, Cueto, Leake, Cingrani and Chapman? Personally, I'll take Bailey 100 times out of 100 over the risk of Chapman being Volquez part 2. The key is making sure you leverage Chapman to acquire real talent and use the money to get real upgrades elsewhere.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The Reds can have an effective offense without adding stars. They can do it with mid-level players who hit better than current players.

    Pitching is more important. The Reds need to keep very good, effective pitchers.

    This board is too consumed with roles. As I've often said about him, I don't care if Chapman starts, closes, pitches middle relief or swings back and forth. I want him on the Reds pitching staff.

    Bailey arguably needs to be traded soon. One year left, no apparent desire to sign (perhaps). That's a different thing. But Chapman doesn't have that situation.

    Pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching. That's how you win, top flight pitching. To go over the top with offense make some smart moves to get mid-level hitters who can do as well or better than some of the current players. The Pirates did it with Byrd, Morneau, Russell Martin. Red Sox too.
    I couldn't agree with you more. People seem to think the world is coming to an end with the possible loss of choo. While that will hurt, we have to remind ourselves that the pitching is the main reason the reds were a playoff team. You are 100% correct that Choos production can be matched or even be improved upon by upgrading the lineup with various mid tier players, not that I'd be opposed to adding a star where possible. The only way I'd trade chapman is if there was a quality arm in return. Say to the rays as part of a deal for price and maybe a bat. Bailey can be traded because of contractual concerns, and I could see cueto going if bailey signs or you'd ride it out for a year with bailey and take the pick and the return from what cueto could net. If you want to save money look to deal a Phillips. He is still very valuable although more than likely declining. But all and all pitching is the strength of the reds. The offense needs improved and some salary moved. Move pieces like bailey who probably won't return, Phillips who is declining, or cueto who has plateaued, and we survived without this year. Don't move chapman. He's a once in a lifetime talent, and in a year the prospects he brings back will seem redundant when lower level prospects like winker and Ervin are ready. Preferably Ready the missle for the rotation or keep him as a closer. Idc. Just keep him a red and look to trade more expendable or unlikely to resign pieces first before you part ways with a young low mileage arm like that.
    Last edited by Old school 1983; 10-11-2013 at 12:28 AM.

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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Actually, this year I'd take Parra and Zach Duke too. Provided, of course, that you can get Parra for less than $2 Million and Duke for less than $1 Million.

    Let Hoover close, set-up with Simon, Lecure, Parra, Marshall, Broxton and have Duke be the loogy. Deal Aroldis for stuff you need. A decent young arm or two could be part of that return (need a couple of alternatives to Partch if Broxton and Marshall are toast and either a bat or some top kids who can be flipped for a bat or kept with the money going to re-sign Choo).

    I also think that Sharky Rogers and Tim Crabbe have a chance to contribute out of the pen at some point.

    Ondrusek needs to go though.
    I can respect your opinion, but I guess I think it's worth paying a little more for Parra. I'd probably go up to 3.5 million/year.. Why? Because the Reds invested a lot of Price's time into Parra. I want to reap the dividends (as opposed to an opponent).. I don't want the Reds to fall back into the "Gullett can fix anyone" trap with Price. There's a lot of retread pitchers that simply can't be fixed.. I guess I'm willing to pay a little extra for some certainty. Obviously, I'm not giving him 6 million/year.. but 3 or 3.5? Sure. I'd cut Heisey if I had to in order to make the budget balance, because the dropoff from Heisey to Robinson is not as bad as 2013 Parra to a bad reliever..

    I'd like to avoid trading Chapman unless it's absolutely necessary, due to the uncertainty of Broxton and Marshal.

    I could take Duke as a loogy, but if money is tight, he's another guy I would bump to save money (although granted.. I doubt he can ask for more than 1 million at this point).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Who is the long time closer for the Cards? Isrighausen? Franklin? Motte? Mujica? No they just rotate them through and win anyway. Did the Pirates suffer by dealing Hanrahan? No they replaced him with a failed Melancon (and a multiple time cut-loose journeyman in Grilli). The Rays rotate them through. The Red Sox haven't had a steady presence there. The A's switch them out every year. Dealing these good closers away for talent and reallocating their funds seems to be a big part of what makes these teams successful IMO.
    .
    Not sure I agree with that.
    I can concede that 11 million for Chapman as the closer might be too steep.
    But the Cards do spend on their bullpen.
    Mujica was a farm product. He made 3.2 million last year and is going to get a big raise for 2014 (arb).
    They picked up Axford.. that's 5 million/year
    Choate got a 3 year 7.5 million deal
    Motte had a 2 year / 12 million deal

    In the past, Franklin got a big contract to close.

    Right now, the Cards are fortunate to have a lot of youth to fill out their pen, but in general, they aren't scared to spend money on the pen.
    Now, again, they aren't spending 11 million/year on one guy, so you do have a point...
    Last edited by REDREAD; 10-11-2013 at 12:55 AM.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Not sure I agree with that.
    I can concede that 11 million for Chapman as the closer might be too steep.
    But the Cards do spend on their bullpen.
    Mujica was a farm product. He made 3.2 million last year and is going to get a big raise for 2014 (arb).
    They picked up Axford.. that's 5 million/year
    Choate got a 3 year 7.5 million deal
    Motte had a 2 year / 12 million deal

    In the past, Franklin got a big contract to close.

    Right now, the Cards are fortunate to have a lot of youth to fill out their pen, but in general, they aren't scared to spend money on the pen.
    Now, again, they aren't spending 11 million/year on one guy, so you do have a point...
    Actually Mujica was a retread who the Indians signed and dealt to the Padres for future considerations. He was then sent to Miami in the Cameron Maybin trade and the Cards picked him up for a minor leaguer they had soured on. Franklin was cut loose by the Reds and Mariners among others. Choate has bounced around from team to team. They picked up Axford at the deadline and didn't pay anything close to $5 Million for him.

    Motte was their closer with a two year deal for about what Chapman will cost in cash in 2014. He was a middle reliever much like Hoover and when the Cards had to choose how to spend their money when the job was open prior to 2012, they handed it to him and chose to spend their money on Carlos Beltran to replace the big bat leaving their team (sound familiar?) and when he was hurt, they didn't really miss him.

    I'm not saying don't spend any money on the pen. I am saying they have already spent a lot of money there, have multiple needs elsewhere and a big name guy whose cost is going to more than triple, has an heir apparent ready to assume the role and who could probably bring back talent and free cash that would fill multiple needs.

    If the Reds need to pay $3 to $3.5 Million to keep Parra, that wouldn't be horrible, but at that price I wonder if some one even better could be had. Probably not, so I'd be OK with that I guess.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    As I see it, we're kind of in a Catch-22 situation with Chapman. As a reliever with a big contract and a couple of minor off-field incidents, he might not bring the kind of return we'd imagine. But if he announced that he was ready and anxious to become a starter, we could get a nice haul for him...but we might want to keep him.
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