Trade rumor thread

[lollipopcurve]

If the Reds could get a .750 OPS starting catcher they would add well over 100 points of OPS right there.

6 of these in MLB last year. In other words, a top tier catcher. Just not a reasonable expectation -- add in all the other stuff, and you're asking Jocketty to do the impossible.

[TRF]

Bray only had one good year, 2011. I think that was the only year he was healthy enough to pitch all year. Herrera was awful.
I wasn't counting Chapman as he was the closer..although I guess you are right, he could be counted in 2010.

Affeldt, Rhodes, 2011 Bray , Chapman.. that's it.

Chapman, healthy Marshall, and Parra .. that's a much stronger LH bullpen, which is really needed if we want to neutralize the Cards next year.
In fact, signing Parra is worth it just for that.. the series vs the Cards.

Chapman counts in 2011, but I think you are missing the point about Parra, and most of those LH's as well.

All were acquisitions. trade or FA pickup. Some were gambles, not everyone panned out. Look at 2000-2007. Not. Good. Krivsky picked up something like 75 relievers it seemed hoping ANYONE would stick. RH, LH, didn't matter. the Reds simply had no one that could either find or evaluate pitching talent when he got there. By the time he left, the staff he had in place was better at it, and Jocketty has since improved on it further. Make no mistake though, it was Krivsky's staff that started the pitching turnaround in 2008.

Now the Reds DO have the ability to properly assess pitching that is available either as a FA or via trade. SO I actually DO trust them to let a Parra walk if they think they can get similar production for less money.

[Old school 1983]

Here's an example of the ability to improve the offense without trading or spending for big stars. Not saying all of these should be done, they are options.

The Reds catchers were fourteenth in the NL in OPS. The Reds best hitting catcher, Mesoraco, was thirtieth among major league catchers with 250 PAs in OPS and Hanigan was much lower.

If the Reds could get a .750 OPS starting catcher they would add well over 100 points of OPS right there. If they could get a .725 OPS shortstop they could add 60 OPS points. The simple return to health by Ludwick could easily add 150 OPS points.

Second and third base are also potential areas of pickup, maybe by adding a better backup or a third base platoon.

The bench could easily pick up 100 OPS points. The only guy whose numbers were good is Paul.

These guys could be added by moderate free agent signings and lower level trades. Some pickups could have real salaries, but one year.

Not saying do all of this, just some where smart pickups are available.

Keep the good pitchers. Pay Parra a reasonable wage. Keep Chapman. Spend on pitching, be smart on offense.

I agree. If we were able to improve a position like third left or short and keep one if our starters from last year the bench is upgraded without having to make a deal specifically for the bench.

[REDREAD]

Actually Mujica was a retread who the Indians signed and dealt to the Padres for future considerations. He was then sent to Miami in the Cameron Maybin trade and the Cards picked him up for a minor leaguer they had soured on. Franklin was cut loose by the Reds and Mariners among others. Choate has bounced around from team to team. They picked up Axford at the deadline and didn't pay anything close to $5 Million for him.
.

Good points, all of them. I made a few mistakes.
You're making the point that these guys were not exactly high profile acquisions. I agree on that.
I think we both agree that you can find a gem on the scrap heap, but it makes sense to pay them when they do well (at a reasonable rate) instead of cycling guys every year.

[REDREAD]

Mujica isn't eligible for arbitration in 2014, he will be a free agent. Mujica was expected to receive big offers in free agent, but that may not happen now. Afterall, the Cardinals almost didn't even put Mujica on the postseason roster. Most Cardinals fans were upset the Mujica was chosen over Sam Freeman.

Sorry, once again, I read the web page wrong

So, do you want the Cards to let Mujica walk or do you want to bring him back? Just curious.

[REDREAD]

.
Now the Reds DO have the ability to properly assess pitching that is available either as a FA or via trade. SO I actually DO trust them to let a Parra walk if they think they can get similar production for less money.

I'm assuming Parra gets about 3 million/year.
He's a bargain at that rate (if he repeats his 2013 performance)
If money is tight, I'd rather trade one of the RH relievers (maybe Simon) and go dumpster diving on a RH reliever to save money there (or some other avenue).

[TRF]

Here's an example of the ability to improve the offense without trading or spending for big stars. Not saying all of these should be done, they are options.

The Reds catchers were fourteenth in the NL in OPS. The Reds best hitting catcher, Mesoraco, was thirtieth among major league catchers with 250 PAs in OPS and Hanigan was much lower.

If the Reds could get a .750 OPS starting catcher they would add well over 100 points of OPS right there. If they could get a .725 OPS shortstop they could add 60 OPS points. The simple return to health by Ludwick could easily add 150 OPS points.

Second and third base are also potential areas of pickup, maybe by adding a better backup or a third base platoon.

The bench could easily pick up 100 OPS points. The only guy whose numbers were good is Paul.

These guys could be added by moderate free agent signings and lower level trades. Some pickups could have real salaries, but one year.

Not saying do all of this, just some where smart pickups are available.

Keep the good pitchers. Pay Parra a reasonable wage. Keep Chapman. Spend on pitching, be smart on offense.

Cozart Post All Star Break: .282 .315 .400 .715

I think that's a reasonable expectation for him. He changed his approach to hitting. It has come at a cost, SLG, but his OBP was up considerably over the first half. Can he stick with this approach? dunno, but his defense is certainly worth letting him try it another year.

What was missing for Frazier was contact. I think he gets that back in 2014, and goes back to being an .800 OPS player again. 40 points of BA is the difference between this year and last year. I think he wore down playing in more games, getting 100+ more AB's.

IMO everything hinges on Choo. If he is signed, then Ludwick is redundant. Choo in LF, Hamilton in CF, because you have to. I'd rather see Ludwick traded than wear Red again next year. I do not believe his history says he is reliable.

[wheels]

Chapman counts in 2011, but I think you are missing the point about Parra, and most of those LH's as well.

All were acquisitions. trade or FA pickup. Some were gambles, not everyone panned out. Look at 2000-2007. Not. Good. Krivsky picked up something like 75 relievers it seemed hoping ANYONE would stick. RH, LH, didn't matter. the Reds simply had no one that could either find or evaluate pitching talent when he got there. By the time he left, the staff he had in place was better at it, and Jocketty has since improved on it further. Make no mistake though, it was Krivsky's staff that started the pitching turnaround in 2008.

Now the Reds DO have the ability to properly assess pitching that is available either as a FA or via trade. SO I actually DO trust them to let a Parra walk if they think they can get similar production for less money.

Yes. I'd also like to add that relievers are a volatile bunch. There is no way to reasonably expect a guy like Parra to replicate his performance.

It's probably 50/50 that letting him walk and rolling the dice on another cheap journeyman will net similar results. Throw bigger money into the mix, and a team is asking for disappointment (see: Broxton, Jon. Marshall, Sean).

[wheels]

Cozart Post All Star Break: .282 .315 .400 .715

I think that's a reasonable expectation for him. He changed his approach to hitting. It has come at a cost, SLG, but his OBP was up considerably over the first half. Can he stick with this approach? dunno, but his defense is certainly worth letting him try it another year.

What was missing for Frazier was contact. I think he gets that back in 2014, and goes back to being an .800 OPS player again. 40 points of BA is the difference between this year and last year. I think he wore down playing in more games, getting 100+ more AB's.

IMO everything hinges on Choo. If he is signed, then Ludwick is redundant. Choo in LF, Hamilton in CF, because you have to. I'd rather see Ludwick traded than wear Red again next year. I do not believe his history says he is reliable.

I've quoted you twice in back to back posts. I must have been missing you.

Anyway, I actually would be pretty okay having Ludwick as a fourth outfielder if they somehow brought Choo back. Ludwick and Paul off the bench is light years ahead of what they had last year.

Nobody's taking on Ludwick's salary. He's a sunk cost, might as well use him to address an area of need (bench depth).

[BungleBengals]

Am I missing something? ESPN and Baseball Reference listed Chapman's salary last year as $4.8M and BR lists his salary next year at $3M. I thought arb numbers only apply to guys who do not have the MLB service time to be a FA like Frazier, Cozart, etc.

[TRF]

I've quoted you twice in back to back posts. I must have been missing you.

Anyway, I actually would be pretty okay having Ludwick as a fourth outfielder if they somehow brought Choo back. Ludwick and Paul off the bench is light years ahead of what they had last year.

Nobody's taking on Ludwick's salary. He's a sunk cost, might as well use him to address an area of need (bench depth).

I don't post as much anymore. But i find this offseason to be fascinating. lots of change potentially.

[wheels]

I don't post as much anymore. But i find this offseason to be fascinating. lots of change potentially.

It really is a fork in the road.

What direction they take could have a serious impact on the club's ability to compete in the next decade or so.

[TRF]

agreed, though I think the fork is compete for championship and just be competitive. the core is young, attendance will probably be up slightly next year. Fix the LF problem and they can be division winners again.

Or get the wrong manager and go all Bobby Valentine.

[OneManBand]

When did Chapman receive a big contract? My thought was that a portion was deferred on a 6 Years for $30.25 Million contract..

He agreed to a complicated contract that helps the Reds at the outset. He gets $1.5 million of his signing bonus when his contract is approved by Major League Baseball, $1.5 million each Nov. 1 from 2010 to 2013 and $1.25 million each Nov. 1 from 2014 to 2020.

Chapman gets annual salaries of $1 million this year and next, $2 million each in 2012 and 2013 and $3 million in 2014. Within five days of the 2014 World Series, he must decide whether to exercise a $5 million player option for 2015.

[Gary Redus]

Given the importance of this off season, do we have the right GM? Time will tell but I'd rather have Walt than other recent occupants of that office.

I agree that Ludwick needs to be seen as fixed cost. That being the case, and with other $ concerns, resigning Choo has to be first priority but there has to be a willingness to pass if the cost is unreasonable. I also agree that the emphasis needs to be on pitching.