Trade rumor thread

[lollipopcurve]

Much of this discussion is in a vacuum. Jocketty can't do a thing without a market. There's what he'd like to do, and what is possible to do.

Looking forward to more discussion about dance partners. Maybe once the rumors start flying in the media...

[757690]

The last thing I want the Reds to do is to take AB's away from Mesoraco next season. His biggest problem was that he wasn't getting regular AB's. He needs to start 5 games a week and get 500 AB's in the season.

[Old school 1983]

Ludwick should be the starting left fielder unless the reds acquire someone substantially better that will be in left for years to come. No reason to have a two headed stopgap monster in left when your best prospects are outfielders. As far as the catching situation goes, hanigan was the main reason why the offense from that position was pitcheresquse. Baker did not seem to have much faith in Mes, and when Mes got consistent time he did well. The best route to go would be to find an offensive minded backup catcher and tell Mes the job is his and he controls his own destiny. A little faith in a player and the mental clarity of knowing you are the guy can go a long way and I think it's help Mes reach his full top prospect potential.

[mth123]

When did Chapman receive a big contract? My thought was that a portion was deferred on a 6 Years for $30.25 Million contract..

Chapman's details from Cot's

Aroldis Chapman lhp
6 years/$30.25M (2010-15)
◾6 years/$30.25M (2010-15)
◾signed by Cincinnati as an amateur free agent 1/11/10
◾$16.25M signing bonus ($1.5M at signing; $1.5M each Nov. 1, 2010-13; $1.25M each Nov. 1, 2014-20)
◾10:$1M, 11:$1M, 12:$2M, 13:$2M, 14:$3M, 15:$5M player option
◾Chapman must decide whether to accept or decline 2015 player option within 5 days after end of 2014 World Series
◾if Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2012, $5M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible
◾if Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2013, $3M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible
◾award bonuses, including $25,000 for All-Star selection
◾defected from Cuba to Netherlands 7/1/09
◾agent: Rodney Fernandez, Hendricks Sports
◾ML service: 2.034

As the bolded shows, Chapman's previously signed contract salary converts to a signing bonus ($3 Million), he gets another bonus each November ($1.25 Million) and they get to go to arb. He'll cost over $10 Million in 2014. As a starter he's a bigger question mark than anyone in the projected rotation now and as a reliever he's simply not worth the dough to a team with other needs and still relatively limited funds. The Reds are probably stuck with the $1.25 Million per year, but they should look to move the rest to a team with deeper pockets IMO while adding talent and spending the money on more needed and impactful positions.

[mth123]

Here's an example of the ability to improve the offense without trading or spending for big stars. Not saying all of these should be done, they are options.

The Reds catchers were fourteenth in the NL in OPS. The Reds best hitting catcher, Mesoraco, was thirtieth among major league catchers with 250 PAs in OPS and Hanigan was much lower.

If the Reds could get a .750 OPS starting catcher they would add well over 100 points of OPS right there. If they could get a .725 OPS shortstop they could add 60 OPS points. The simple return to health by Ludwick could easily add 150 OPS points.

Second and third base are also potential areas of pickup, maybe by adding a better backup or a third base platoon.

The bench could easily pick up 100 OPS points. The only guy whose numbers were good is Paul.

These guys could be added by moderate free agent signings and lower level trades. Some pickups could have real salaries, but one year.

Not saying do all of this, just some where smart pickups are available.

Keep the good pitchers. Pay Parra a reasonable wage. Keep Chapman. Spend on pitching, be smart on offense.

I'm all for cutting Hanigan loose and pursuing a guy like you describe. As a free agent (say Saltalamacchia) a guy like that is likely to cost $8 to $10 Million per year and the Reds don't have the cash if they sink $30 Million or so (25% of the likely budget) into the pen (Chapman $10+, Broxton $7, Marshall $5.5, Parra likely $3, Ondrusek $1.3, Simon and Lecure around $1.5 each). And just one guy like this won't be enough.

Funny you mention this. This is exactly the move the Pirates made to help pass the Reds by. They found a taker for their pricey closer, turned the spot over to in house decent arms and spent the saved money to upgrade the catching position with Russell Martin.

[Old school 1983]

The best solution with chapman would be just to put him in the roatation and look to trade a guy like bailey who may not return because of his contract or a guy like cueto who has more than likely peaked. This year would be a good opportunity to start chapman because Stephenson is in the wings and appears to be the real deal. If chapman falters put him back in the pen where he has had past success. If he thrives then he has more trade value and makes another starter a trade piece. Trade guys like Phillips (while I think he'll have a bounce back year in 2014 he's declining, cueto who has peaked, bailey who may not be here for the long haul, or guys like Frazier or cozart who would be expendable if the right pieces were brought in. Don't look to trade an arm like chapman unless you get blown away by the return. You just don't trade guys with special tools like chapman or Hamilton for stop gaps or prospects. You give those players opportunities to use those gifts. You trade guys that have value but don't fit into your plan or may leave or are blocked. Aka bailey Phillips cueto. And or cozart and Frazier and even ludwick if replacements are found. I think those guys combined with a prospect or two in a trade, or with a few FA signings, put the reds in a great spot. Trading chapman smells of firesale panic move unless the return is massive.

[OneManBand]

Chapman's details from Cot's



As the bolded shows, Chapman's previously signed contract salary converts to a signing bonus ($3 Million), he gets another bonus each November ($1.25 Million) and they get to go to arb. He'll cost over $10 Million in 2014. As a starter he's a bigger question mark than anyone in the projected rotation now and as a reliever he's simply not worth the dough to a team with other needs and still relatively limited funds. The Reds are probably stuck with the $1.25 Million per year, but they should look to move the rest to a team with deeper pockets IMO while adding talent and spending the money on more needed and impactful positions.

Thank you kind sir! Still relatively cheap concidering his value. To amount the innings he pitches and the amount of strikeouts he totals is amazing. But if he isn't going to be a starter then the cost may not match the value and trading him to hopefully someone in the AL would make sense. I certainly hope he stays and a switch to the rotation would be in the works.. but can't see paying 10+ Million to a closer plus 7.5 Million to a setup guy.

[mth123]

Assuming that the most important thing is winning in 2014 (for me it is) does anyone really believe that a converting Chapman would be more valuable to the Reds in the rotation than Homer Bailey? I suppose Chapman becoming Randy Johnson is a best case scenario, but it would be an awful lot going right for him to be as good as Homer Bailey IMO. Chapman could be horrible (think Edinson Volquez). So the Reds convert Chapman, deal Bailey and put their eggs in that basket. Chapman stinks and as many have suggested, the "no risk " fall back plan is used and Chapman goes back to the pen. Meanwhile, there is a gaping hole in the rotation and the Reds finish third or fourth. Hardly seems like "no risk" to me.

[757690]

Assuming that the most important thing is winning in 2014 (for me it is) does anyone really believe that a converting Chapman would be more valuable to the Reds in the rotation than Homer Bailey? I suppose Chapman becoming Randy Johnson is a best case scenario, but it would be an awful lot going right for him to be as good as Homer Bailey IMO. Chapman could be horrible (think Edinson Volquez). So the Reds convert Chapman, deal Bailey and put their eggs in that basket. Chapman stinks and as many have suggested, the "no risk " fall back plan is used and Chapman goes back to the pen. Meanwhile, there is a gaping hole in the rotation and the Reds finish third or fourth. Hardly seems like "no risk" to me.

I can't see Chapman being horrible. Not now, he has too much experience.

Over the last two years, Bailey was 24-22 with a 3.58 ERA. Chapman should be really close to that, and most likely, much better. Chapman won't deliver the innings in his first season starting, but I can see him matching or doing better than Bailey in everything else that matters.

Plus, the Reds aren't going into spring training with just five starters. They'll be others competing for that fifth spot. Chapman would be the fifth starter anyway, with four very strong other starters. All that would mean is that the Reds would have a true #5 starter as their #5 starter. That won't ruin their season.

[mth123]

I can't see Chapman being horrible. Not now, he has too much experience.

Over the last two years, Bailey was 24-22 with a 3.58 ERA. Chapman should be really close to that, and most likely, much better. Chapman won't deliver the innings in his first season starting, but I can see him matching or doing better than Bailey in everything else that matters.

Plus, the Reds aren't going into spring training with just five starters. They'll be others competing for that fifth spot. Chapman would be the fifth starter anyway, with four very strong other starters. All that would mean is that the Reds would have a true #5 starter as their #5 starter. That won't ruin their season.

So how many times has Chapman paced himself in a game against major league hitters? How may times has he faced the same hitter twice in a game, or for that matter in a series or even in a month? How much has he had to use his secondary stuff? Has he really had to get his slider over the plate or can he just use his 100 MPH stuff to set it up so hitters chase (he won't have that 100 MPH stuff as a starter)? Do we know how his stuff holds up deep in the game? Does he have a usable third pitch?

I agree that I can see Chapman being as good as Bailey, but I also can see him being Daniel Cabrera or Edinson Volquez as well. I think ignoring that possibility is a huge mistake.

[757690]

So how many times has Chapman paced himself in a game against major league hitters? How may times has he faced the same hitter twice in a game, or for that matter in a series or even in a month? How much has he had to use his secondary stuff? Has he really had to get his slider over the plate or can he just use his 100 MPH stuff to set it up so hitters chase (he won't have that 100 MPH stuff as a starter)? Do we know how his stuff holds up deep in the game? Does he have a usable third pitch?

I agree that I can see Chapman being as good as Bailey, but I also can see him being Daniel Cabrera or Edinson Volquez as well. I think ignoring that possibility is a huge mistake.

Chapman was a starter in Cuba, and in the minors for the Reds. Let's not pretend that starting is a new bizarre concept to him. It will be tougher against MLB hitters, but not different. He doesn't need to learn new skills.

Cabrera and Volquez didn't throw 100+ MPH, weren't left handed, and never had a 14 K/IP ratio.

[Kc61]

I'm all for cutting Hanigan loose and pursuing a guy like you describe. As a free agent (say Saltalamacchia) a guy like that is likely to cost $8 to $10 Million per year and the Reds don't have the cash if they sink $30 Million or so (25% of the likely budget) into the pen (Chapman $10+, Broxton $7, Marshall $5.5, Parra likely $3, Ondrusek $1.3, Simon and Lecure around $1.5 each). And just one guy like this won't be enough.

Funny you mention this. This is exactly the move the Pirates made to help pass the Reds by. They found a taker for their pricey closer, turned the spot over to in house decent arms and spent the saved money to upgrade the catching position with Russell Martin.

I appreciate the comparison between Joel Hanrahan and Aroldis Chapman. It really makes my point more clearly than I ever could.

Lumping together all "closers" is just about the worst way to make trade decisions. Focus on the talent level and the arm you are relinquishing.

As for new additions, I'm sure Walt and Co. are savvy enough to find mid-level players to fill spots without overpaying. They certainly don't have to trade Aroldis Chapman to fill out the roster with solid major leaguers.

[757690]

As for new additions, I'm sure Walt and Co. are savvy enough to find mid-level players to fill spots without overpaying. They certainly don't have to trade Aroldis Chapman to fill out the roster with solid major leaguers.

I don't know. It worked so well when the Reds traded George Foster for Alex Trevino, Greg Harris and Jim Kern

[mth123]

I appreciate the comparison between Joel Hanrahan and Aroldis Chapman. It really makes my point more clearly than I ever could.

Lumping together all "closers" is just about the worst way to make trade decisions. Focus on the talent level and the arm you are relinquishing.

As for new additions, I'm sure Walt and Co. are savvy enough to find mid-level players to fill spots without overpaying. They certainly don't have to trade Aroldis Chapman to fill out the roster with solid major leaguers.

Not lumping all closers together. Just looking at the team's needs, constraints (money) and depth (the same way the Pirates did). The Reds need to ease the constraints, fill multiple needs and move the player who best fits that bill because he has an in house replacement. The only name that qualifies is Aroldis Chapman. There is no replacement for Bruce, Votto, Latos, Bailey or Cueto. The only other name that get's the job done is Aroldis Chapman and the Reds happen to have a guy ready to fill his spot. He's the only name with any value that won't require going outside the organization for a replacement.

[Kc61]

Not lumping all closers together. Just looking at the team's needs, constraints (money) and depth (the same way the Pirates did). The Reds need to ease the constraints, fill multiple needs and move the player who best fits that bill because he has an in house replacement. The only name that qualifies is Aroldis Chapman. There is no replacement for Bruce, Votto, Latos, Bailey or Cueto. The only other name that get's the job done is Aroldis Chapman and the Reds happen to have a guy ready to fill his spot. He's the only name with any value that won't require going outside the organization for a replacement.

Very simple issue. You want to trade Chapman because he has a lot of value.

I want to keep him because he has a lot of value.

You think he has a replacement because he is a closer.

I think he has no replacement because he has a fantastic pitching arm.