Trade rumor thread

[757690]

Not lumping all closers together. Just looking at the team's needs, constraints (money) and depth (the same way the Pirates did). The Reds need to ease the constraints, fill multiple needs and move the player who best fits that bill because he has an in house replacement. The only name that qualifies is Aroldis Chapman. There is no replacement for Bruce, Votto, Latos, Bailey or Cueto. The only other name that get's the job done is Aroldis Chapman and the Reds happen to have a guy ready to fill his spot. He's the only name with any value that won't require going outside the organization for a replacement.

Pirates didn't trade Andrew McCutchen to fill holes. That is what you want the Reds to do. It's not a matter of which spot on the roster is filled if Chapman is traded, it's a matter of which spot on the talent depth chart is filled.

[mth123]

Pirates didn't trade Andrew McCutchen to fill holes. That is what you want the Reds to do. It's not a matter of which spot on the roster is filled if Chapman is traded, it's a matter of which spot on the talent depth chart is filled.

Well, I'm not pushing for a trade of Votto or Bruce. Latos, Bailey and Cueto are all more valuable than Chapman as well IMO. The Reds do have a McCutchen type walking though and the Reds need to do something to replace that production. It mean's tough choices. Had Frazier not regressed, Mesoraco not tanked, Hamilton not stalled, etc. status quo would be fine. Given what's happened, it isn't.

[mth123]

Very simple issue. You want to trade Chapman because he has a lot of value.

I want to keep him because he has a lot of value.

You think he has a replacement because he is a closer.

I think he has no replacement because he has a fantastic pitching arm.

Luxury when the team lacks necessities. He's the 60 inch TV with the large monthly payment when your struggling to make rent.

[757690]

Luxury when the team lacks necessities. He's the 60 inch TV with the large monthly payment when your struggling to make rent.

Reds aren't struggling to contend. They need to improve but they won 90 games last year with a boatload of injuries. They lose Choo, but gain a full season of Cingrani, Marshall, Broxton, Cueto, plus Hamilton and Stephenson at some point in 2014.

We ain't talking the 2012 Pirates here.

[mth123]

Reds aren't struggling to contend. They need to improve but they won 90 games last year with a boatload of injuries. They lose Choo, but gain a full season of Cingrani, Marshall, Broxton, Cueto, plus Hamilton and Stephenson at some point in 2014.

We ain't talking the 2012 Pirates here.

They finished third, are losing an MVP caliber player, there is no help on the farm and they are bumping the budget ceiling without acquiring anybody.

Things are so rosy, they fired the Manager.

[757690]

They finished third, are losing an MVP caliber player, there is no help on the farm and they are bumping the budget ceiling without acquiring anybody.

Things are so rosy, they fired the Manager.

90 wins. Fifth best record in the NL. The Reds have plenty of talent to compete next year, but need a few small holes to fill. They have at least $10M of payflex to fill those. No urgency to trade one of the most valuable players on the team to accomplish what can be accomplished without trading him.

[mth123]

90 wins. Fifth best record in the NL. The Reds have plenty of talent to compete next year, but need a few small holes to fill. They have at least $10M of payflex to fill those. No urgency to trade one of the most valuable players on the team to accomplish what can be accomplished without trading him.

So the line-up that is only three players deep becomes two players deep the day after the World Series ends. How do you fix it?

[757690]

So the line-up that is only three players deep becomes two players deep the day after the World Series ends. How do you fix it?

You don't do it by trading one of the best young arms in baseball, who is under contract for a few more years.

If Dusty was still the manager, I'd have no problem trading Chapman, since he would be used poorly, closer or starter. But I want to see what Chapman can do either as a starter, or as closer used properly.

And the Reds won 97 games a year ago with a lineup one player deep, and that player was injured a good part of the year.

[Kc61]

So the line-up that is only three players deep becomes two players deep the day after the World Series ends. How do you fix it?

The formula is obvious..

1. Keep your top end pitching, with the possible exception of Bailey who may be ready to walk.

2. Add some mid-level, average to slightly above average, starters and backups to bolster the offense. Not stars but solid bats. Free agents and minor trades. Navarro to team with Mes is one possible example. Provide offensive depth rather than big offensive stars.

3. If the money for Choo is possible try for him, otherwise come up with a reasonable outfielder to warm the seat while Hamilton prepares. Basically a short term CFer and eventual trade bait or backup.

4. If no Choo, ask Bob if it would be ok to take on one more short-term serious contract. Like Aramis Ramirez. If he says no, so be it.

4. Shed players who are too expensive for their role. Phillips is possible but a tough trade. No offer to Arroyo. Heisey is a candidate on a smaller scale.

[mth123]

The formula is obvious..

1. Keep your top end pitching, with the possible exception of Bailey who may be ready to walk.

2. Add some mid-level, average to slightly above average, starters and backups to bolster the offense. Not stars but solid bats. Free agents and minor trades. Navarro to team with Mes is one possible example. Provide offensive depth rather than big offensive stars.

3. If the money for Choo is possible try for him, otherwise come up with a reasonable outfielder to warm the seat while Hamilton prepares. Basically a short term CFer and eventual trade bait or backup.

4. If no Choo, ask Bob if it would be ok to take on one more short-term serious contract. Like Aramis Ramirez. If he says no, so be it.

4. Shed players who are too expensive for their role. Phillips is possible but a tough trade. No offer to Arroyo. Heisey is a candidate on a smaller scale.

This a good plan, but I don't think the Reds have the money to pull it off. I think the Reds are loaded with guys who fit number 4 (really number 5?). If Aroldis Chapman is the closer, he's one of them IMO. As an unproven starter, he probably still is. Marshall and Broxton are probably not movable unless packaged with an attractive cheap piece. Same for Ludwick and Hannahan who all fit number 4 as well. A non-tender or quick deal or two for whatever involving Heisey and Hanigan would make sense since they are heading into this territory as well. Logan Ondrusek doesn't make a ton, but he fits number 4 as well and I'd deal him for a PTBNL just free even his small amount of cash for a run at a player or two.

Brandon Phillips is a conundrum. He seems in obvious decline IMO. His defense is still amazing, but it won't be long before "is" becomes "was" for BP in that respect. His bat has been in decline and he doesn't run well anymore. His cost is going up and moving him would certainly make a plan like the above more doable, the problem is there is no one remotely close to being able to approach his production even in his declining years. He won't bring back the talent to fill holes as more expensive guys are cut loose and much of the pay-flex obtained in dealing him might be eaten up in replacing him. Ten and five rights are bearing down on the Reds. This off-season is probably the time.

That brings me back to the one guy who can make a plan like that work. Aroldis Chapman would bring back two or three guys who could fill the holes created by cutting some of these guys loose (or get quality kids who could be repackaged for the guys to fill these spots). He'd also free enough cash to pursue Choo or another higher caliber guy for CF (Ellsbury or Granderson on the right deal).

The guys who don't fit number 4 are the guys I want the Reds to keep. That includes the entire rotation (sans Arroyo of course), Votto, Bruce, cheap guys like Cozart, Frazier, Mesoraco, Hoover, Simon, Lecure and maybe Parra depending on how much he'd cost. Ludwick, Broxton and Marshall are probably back and if they recover could still be worth it, but it's a pricey and risky use of much of the budget IMO.

I'd be looking to acquire a catcher who can hit to at least pair with Mesoraco or could make Mes available as a trade piece. I like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, but he'll cost a lot and the Navarro type player might be more realistic. I also think a productive player for CF is an absolute must. I prefer it be more of a main guy who might move to LF down the road, but a productive stopgap along the lines of David Dejesus would work for me. A cheaper, younger replacement for Phillips would be a goal, but it may be pretty hard to find. A young arm or two for depth in the rotation and pen is needed IMO. Another OF who can play CF and IF who can play SS while both add uses as PH or PR off the bench seems necessary. Izturis was a fine defensive MI reserve, but he offered nothing with the bat and wasn't even useful as a PR and small upgrades like that can help over 162 games. A better corner back-up who offers a PH threat is needed as well.

The Reds might be able to deal off some of the pricey guys but unless they can get some quality young cheap guys in return, they'll spend the savings on similarly flawed guys replacing them and it will just be a rearranging deck chairs situation with little real improvement. It's why I think they must make a bold move or two and deal a guy we'd rather keep. Following the "Shed players who are too expensive for their role" plan, I keep coming back to Chapman with two top, high end kids who are ready now and make the minimum, a cheaper fill-in for one of the spots and money to sign the CF of our dreams as the return. If you can't get that, of course you keep him, but you aren't going to get it for the others and I doubt you'd get it for Bailey.

[Falls City Beer]

Reds aren't tweaks away from the World Series. They lack some serious alpha males, guys who stare down the opposition and beat them.

Too much is made of defense in Reds land. Time to replace some defense first guys with hitters who can draw more than thirty walks in a season.

Believe it or not, despite the overarching love for the Reds's starters, I wouldn't mind seeing a true ace at the top the rotation, either, preferably lefthanded.

[Falls City Beer]

People who are counting on Cueto, Broxton, Marshall, and Ludwick next season have much too much faith in this front office.

[buckeyenut]

Oh, OK. Like Corky Miller, Francisco Cervelli, Brett Hayes and Dioner Navarro. Come on. It is far preferable to stick with Mes and Hanigan, both of whom have the potential to hit better than they did last year.



For example? Who would your SS and C targets be, seeing as how you seem comfortable with LF as is...

You get your offensive improvement by having Mes catch 4 days out of 5 and Hanigan run as a backup. A new manager has to see Mes is ready and implement this one.

We need Choo back. He is vital to this offense going forward. But we also need to use Phillips correctly or move him. He is not a 2 or 4 hitter.

[757690]

Reds aren't tweaks away from the World Series. They lack some serious alpha males, guys who stare down the opposition and beat them.

Too much is made of defense in Reds land. Time to replace some defense first guys with hitters who can draw more than thirty walks in a season.

Believe it or not, despite the overarching love for the Reds's starters, I wouldn't mind seeing a true ace at the top the rotation, either, preferably lefthanded.

Reds won 97 games in 2012 with less alpha males than they had in 2013. It's a good story, but not really the problem.

[757690]

This a good plan, but I don't think the Reds have the money to pull it off. I think the Reds are loaded with guys who fit number 4 (really number 5?). If Aroldis Chapman is the closer, he's one of them IMO. As an unproven starter, he probably still is. Marshall and Broxton are probably not movable unless packaged with an attractive cheap piece. Same for Ludwick and Hannahan who all fit number 4 as well. A non-tender or quick deal or two for whatever involving Heisey and Hanigan would make sense since they are heading into this territory as well. Logan Ondrusek doesn't make a ton, but he fits number 4 as well and I'd deal him for a PTBNL just free even his small amount of cash for a run at a player or two.

Brandon Phillips is a conundrum. He seems in obvious decline IMO. His defense is still amazing, but it won't be long before "is" becomes "was" for BP in that respect. His bat has been in decline and he doesn't run well anymore. His cost is going up and moving him would certainly make a plan like the above more doable, the problem is there is no one remotely close to being able to approach his production even in his declining years. He won't bring back the talent to fill holes as more expensive guys are cut loose and much of the pay-flex obtained in dealing him might be eaten up in replacing him. Ten and five rights are bearing down on the Reds. This off-season is probably the time.

That brings me back to the one guy who can make a plan like that work. Aroldis Chapman would bring back two or three guys who could fill the holes created by cutting some of these guys loose (or get quality kids who could be repackaged for the guys to fill these spots). He'd also free enough cash to pursue Choo or another higher caliber guy for CF (Ellsbury or Granderson on the right deal).

The guys who don't fit number 4 are the guys I want the Reds to keep. That includes the entire rotation (sans Arroyo of course), Votto, Bruce, cheap guys like Cozart, Frazier, Mesoraco, Hoover, Simon, Lecure and maybe Parra depending on how much he'd cost. Ludwick, Broxton and Marshall are probably back and if they recover could still be worth it, but it's a pricey and risky use of much of the budget IMO.

I'd be looking to acquire a catcher who can hit to at least pair with Mesoraco or could make Mes available as a trade piece. I like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, but he'll cost a lot and the Navarro type player might be more realistic. I also think a productive player for CF is an absolute must. I prefer it be more of a main guy who might move to LF down the road, but a productive stopgap along the lines of David Dejesus would work for me. A cheaper, younger replacement for Phillips would be a goal, but it may be pretty hard to find. A young arm or two for depth in the rotation and pen is needed IMO. Another OF who can play CF and IF who can play SS while both add uses as PH or PR off the bench seems necessary. Izturis was a fine defensive MI reserve, but he offered nothing with the bat and wasn't even useful as a PR and small upgrades like that can help over 162 games. A better corner back-up who offers a PH threat is needed as well.

The Reds might be able to deal off some of the pricey guys but unless they can get some quality young cheap guys in return, they'll spend the savings on similarly flawed guys replacing them and it will just be a rearranging deck chairs situation with little real improvement. It's why I think they must make a bold move or two and deal a guy we'd rather keep. Following the "Shed players who are too expensive for their role" plan, I keep coming back to Chapman with two top, high end kids who are ready now and make the minimum, a cheaper fill-in for one of the spots and money to sign the CF of our dreams as the return. If you can't get that, of course you keep him, but you aren't going to get it for the others and I doubt you'd get it for Bailey.

Bailey is far, far less talented and far, far less valuable to the Reds than Chapman. He's also going to be more expensive, and will get almost as much in return.

If the Reds need to shed salary somewhere for 2014, trading Bailey is the obvious choice. Trading Chapman now that he's likely a starter, or a properly used closer, makes zero sense.