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Thread: Trade rumor thread

  1. #256
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Am I wrong for thinking Chapman might only make 4 MM or so in his first year of arbitration? He's Craig Kimbrel, not Clayton Kershaw.

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  4. #257
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    1. Bailey will probably make $8 to $9 Million in 2014. Chapman has a $3 Million guaranteed bonus, with a $1.25 Million deferred signing bonus payable in November and the team will go to arb with him. Even if he only get's $5 Million (he'll get much more) he'll be more costly than Bailey.

    2. Bailey is a starter whose stuff increases as the game progresses and throws 97+ in the 7th inning frequently. Chapman is a strong closer who throws hard, has questionable secondary pitches and we know nothing about how his stuff holds up as he progresses in a game or how he'll do pacing himself, seeing hitters multiple times or whether his secondary stuff is good enough when he has to throw it 25 or 30 times per game. Chapman has a great arm, but he is in no way a better choice for the rotation in 2014.

    Chapman will be the one costing more and either makes a lesser impact as a closer or is a bigger question mark as a starter. I also don't get the assumption that he's a starter now that Dusty is gone. I think you are very presumptuous where Chapman is concerned. I've seen nothing saying he's a starter now and there isn't any kind of track record that says he'll be any good if he does it. I care nothing about his track record in Cuba (A few studs, but average guys seem more like minor league journeyman types (Felix Perez anyone) and his short time starting in AAA, he wasn't really that impressive.

    I do agree that Chapman probably has more trade value because of his years of control. Seeing that I think the Reds need a lot back, that is exactly one of the reasons he's the one I want to deal (that and Hoover can replace him with little lost as far as winning and losing actual games).
    If Chapman sucks so bad, why will he be making more money in the future than Bailey? You can't have it both ways. Bailey will be a free agent. They always get more than Arb players. That's how the system works.

    I'm not arguing that Chapman will be better than Bailey next year, or over the next few years. Just that he will be more valuable, since he will be under team control longer and be cheaper.

    Chapman will start spring training competing for a rotation spot. Bank on it. That was the biggest divide between Jocketty and Baker, and imo, the main reason why Baker was fired. Jocketty didn't want to see Chapman's talent wasted anymore. First question of every manager interviewed. How would you use Chapman? Anyone who says as a closer, doesn't get asked a second question.

    Chapman might crash and burn in spring training and go back to the pen. But he will start spring training in the rotation.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  5. #258
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    While I disagree with trading Chapman, I think he has more trade value than Bailey. And it's more than controllability.

    Bailey seems to be considered a talented pitcher, capable of great things, but inconsistent. I've heard this description from people who are neutral toward the Reds as well as the media.

    Chapman is viewed as a special arm and is now a two time all star. The only question I've heard about him is how he will translate to starting. He is also an attraction for fans.

    I still wouldn't trade Chapman but if dealt he would likely bring more back IMO.

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  7. #259
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Chapman will start spring training competing for a rotation spot. Bank on it.
    He better do more than compete. If Chapman isn't starting, he's a net negative @ $11M. That's more than Cueto makes. Doing things like paying $11M for closers are the reason we're not even talking about bringing Choo back (not that I'd bring Choo back...for other reasons, but I digress) and instead worrying about a gaping hole in CF. You can't have those players on your team and hope to win in a mid-market.

  8. #260
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If Chapman sucks so bad, why will he be making more money in the future than Bailey? You can't have it both ways. Bailey will be a free agent. They always get more than Arb players. That's how the system works.

    I'm not arguing that Chapman will be better than Bailey next year, or over the next few years. Just that he will be more valuable, since he will be under team control longer and be cheaper.

    Chapman will start spring training competing for a rotation spot. Bank on it. That was the biggest divide between Jocketty and Baker, and imo, the main reason why Baker was fired. Jocketty didn't want to see Chapman's talent wasted anymore. First question of every manager interviewed. How would you use Chapman? Anyone who says as a closer, doesn't get asked a second question.

    Chapman might crash and burn in spring training and go back to the pen. But he will start spring training in the rotation.
    I never said he sucks so bad. That's coming from you sticking words in my mouth. I think Chapman is an elite closer and has a lot of value. I just think the Reds have a guy who looks like he could be a good closer in the wings for cheap and I think they should parlay that elite closer into a couple high end ready now kids who can inject some life and a cheap role player all of whom could replace a few of the budget busters and free a bunch more cash from the bullpen. This is how the Reds will be able to compete for a top offensive player or two. It's not just about moving Chapman's money, but getting guys back who can allow the Reds to dump a couple others as well and then using all of that cash to reconfigure the line-up by signing a Choo or an Ellsbury along with another guy like possibly a Saltalamacchia or even a short deal for AJ Pierzynski or Carlos Ruiz. But the Reds don't have cheap replacements who are ready in-house and if we want to sign guys to improve this roster, some need to be acquired somehow or the team is going to be stuck with the pricey roster flaws they have now. They could still cut those guys loose I suppose, but they'll have to replace them with other pricey guys who are flawed because they won't have that extra cash to pursue real upgrades.

    That is what I have been saying. Here is what you are saying:

    1. Bank on Chapman competing for a rotation spot. How are you so certain? The Reds haven't made that statement. The last public statement made by anyone involved about Chapman's role came from Chapman when he said he wanted to be the closer.

    2. The Divide between Walt and Dusty was over Chapman in the rotation. Again, that is pure speculation. I haven't seen that statement coming from either camp.

    3. Chapman is sure to be a good if not great starter. How can you be so certain and not at least acknowledge the possibility that he could be a guy who can't do it in the big leagues in a starting role? There are lots of guys who were very good starters in AA who ended-up as relief pitchers in the major leagues. Success in Cuba or in international tournaments against teams filled with players who aren't good enough to be on a major league roster doesn't prove anything any more than being a good starter in AA. As far as Chapman vs. Bailey in a starting rotation, just put me down for the guy whose stuff holds at 97+ in the seventh inning of his outing that day with proven secondary stuff over the guy who is almost all fast ball with a breaking pitch he can't really throw for a strike (but is effective because he get's guys to chase because as a reliever he doesn't need to show it so much) and who loses 5 to 6 MPH by throwing 3 innings in 3 days. The certainty that so many seem to have about Chapman being a top starter isn't based on anything but hopes IMO. If I was a team with a hole in the rotation, I'd certainly explore it, but as a contender with the spots more than adequately filled, I wouldn't take the risk of dealing off one of my anchors to experiment. The "no risk" narrative that is often presented is true from Chapman's perspective. He can go back to the pen and resume his career as a closer, but from the Reds 2014 season perspective, it's a huge risk. Opening a spot for him means that he can't be moved back to the pen without creating a huge hole. If it doesn't work out, it would be a major setback for a team holding on to contention by the strength of its rotation (and the skin of it's teeth).


    Honestly, since we're speculating, I think it's probably more likely to play out that Chapman is back as the closer making a lot of money, the rotation is back intact without Arroyo and the Reds turn to Billy Hamilton, Chris Heisey and Derrick Robinson in CF. Ludwick will be a little more productive in LF and Frazier and Mes may uptick a bit while Phillips continues to decline and Bruce and Votto stay about the same. The offense will have more excitement with Hamilton running when he does get on base, but the loss of Choo will make the Reds less productive and everyone will wonder why Phillips doesn't have 100 RBIs again. The Central is all Cards and doesn't have 3 play-off teams as the Nats bounce back and the Reds will win 88 to 90 games, finish 10 games out of first, compete for the second Wildcard with the Pirates and D-backs and it's appearance in the post-season is largely dependent on the Pirates suffering from play-off hangover and taking a step back like the Reds of 2011 (or 1971 if you wish). Unless the Reds payroll jumps by $30 to $40 Million, I don't see them getting the players they need to keep up and need to move some dead, unproductive or mis-used money to make the needed changes. I don't really expect any of that to happen, but I think the 2014 season is at risk of returning the Reds to the ranks of also rans if it doesn't. I'm not going to go as far as saying "bank on it" but this is what I believe will happen if the Reds don't find the money to fund a bit of retooling.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-13-2013 at 06:00 AM.
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  9. #261
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Something to think about...Chapman and Bailey are both healthy arms. You can never have too many healthy arms, regardless of how they're utilized.
    The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. -- Terrance Mann (Field of Dreams)

  10. #262
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Something to think about...Chapman and Bailey are both healthy arms. You can never have too many healthy arms, regardless of how they're utilized.
    I fully agree.

    Only thing, in Bailey's case, is the business side of baseball. He'll be a FA so you explore trading him. He probably doesn't have a long future with the Reds.

    But if he winds up staying and pitching for the Reds, it's not a bad result. Only trade him if the value in exchange is strong.

  11. #263
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    A blurb at the bottom of this piece says the Padres may make some young pitching depth available to fill holes elsewhere. Burch Smith is the kind of young controlable arm I wouldn't mind adding in a more minor-type deal (infact, I wouldn't mind two or three such acquisitions in addition to whatever bigger deals they make).

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/1...s-padres-.html

  12. #264
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Honestly, since we're speculating, I think it's probably more likely to play out that Chapman is back as the closer making a lot of money, the rotation is back intact without Arroyo and the Reds turn to Billy Hamilton, Chris Heisey and Derrick Robinson in CF. Ludwick will be a little more productive in LF and Frazier and Mes may uptick a bit while Phillips continues to decline and Bruce and Votto stay about the same. The offense will have more excitement with Hamilton running when he does get on base, but the loss of Choo will make the Reds less productive and everyone will wonder why Phillips doesn't have 100 RBIs again. The Central is all Cards and doesn't have 3 play-off teams as the Nats bounce back and the Reds will win 88 to 90 games, finish 10 games out of first, compete for the second Wildcard with the Pirates and D-backs and it's appearance in the post-season is largely dependent on the Pirates suffering from play-off hangover and taking a step back like the Reds of 2011 (or 1971 if you wish). Unless the Reds payroll jumps by $30 to $40 Million, I don't see them getting the players they need to keep up and need to move some dead, unproductive or mis-used money to make the needed changes. I don't really expect any of that to happen, but I think the 2014 season is at risk of returning the Reds to the ranks of also rans if it doesn't. I'm not going to go as far as saying "bank on it" but this is what I believe will happen if the Reds don't find the money to fund a bit of retooling.
    Maybe it's just a product of watching the Cards run out stacks of talent on top of stacks of talent, but it feels like this team aged about five years in that wildcard game. We'll still compete obviously, but I no longer have that fuzzy "we've got plenty more chances" feeling.

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  14. #265
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Maybe it's just a product of watching the Cards run out stacks of talent on top of stacks of talent, but it feels like this team aged about five years in that wildcard game. We'll still compete obviously, but I no longer have that fuzzy "we've got plenty more chances" feeling.
    It's hard to not feel they've run out the string with the current talent. And as others have mentioned, they have a ton of expensive dead weight to move.

  15. #266
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    It's hard to not feel they've run out the string with the current talent. And as others have mentioned, they have a ton of expensive dead weight to move.
    Who is expensive dead weight? Whose getting paid significantly more the they could possible earn?
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  16. #267
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Who is expensive dead weight? Whose getting paid significantly more the they could possible earn?
    Broxton, Marshall, Ludwick. Some, not I, would say BP.

    I think they're set up okay for 2013, a catcher away. I'm cool with the rotation as is. Hopefully Manny Parra v. 2014 is out there to upgrade over Ondrusek or replace the OG if necessary.

  17. #268
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Crumbley View Post
    Broxton, Marshall, Ludwick. Some, not I, would say BP.

    I think they're set up okay for 2013, a catcher away. I'm cool with the rotation as is. Hopefully Manny Parra v. 2014 is out there to upgrade over Ondrusek or replace the OG if necessary.
    Those are guys coming off of injuries. Not really dead weight. If healthy, they're important parts of a contending team. Although I'm not a Broxton fan.

    Agree team is set up nicely, though some moves are needed.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  18. #269
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Who is expensive dead weight? Whose getting paid significantly more the they could possible earn?
    Phillips, Broxton, Marshall, Ludwick, Hanigan, Heisey, Ondrusek, Hannahan and IMO, Chapman, who will make too much to close and too much to be such a question mark as a starter. Some aren't super expensive, but guys like Hannahan, Hanigan and Heisey will combine to be overpaid by about $4 or $5 Million. If Ondrusek makes the team and throws a pitch, he'll be vastly overpaid. If he spends the year in the minors a la Arredondo, he'll be a little overpaid.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  19. #270
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    Re: Trade rumor thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Phillips, Broxton, Marshall, Ludwick, Hanigan, Heisey, Ondrusek, Hannahan and IMO, Chapman, who will make too much to close and too much to be such a question mark as a starter. Some aren't super expensive, but guys like Hannahan, Hanigan and Heisey will combine to be overpaid by about $4 or $5 Million. If Ondrusek makes the team and throws a pitch, he'll be vastly overpaid. If he spends the year in the minors a la Arredondo, he'll be a little overpaid.
    Agree on Hanigsn and Heisey, and don't see them on the 2014 spring training Reds roster. Love the Ondrusek evaluation

    Hannahan is a fine back up infielder, and only makes double minimum this year.

    Phillips will be considered a steal once Cano signs.

    Marshall and Ludwick are bargains if healthy. Every team has a few of these players.

    I count Broxton as the only clear cut dead weight contract wise on the team. But I thought that the day he signed.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


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