Arroyo is a realist. Reds can't afford to make the qualifying offer. That is 14M that needs to be plowed into more pressing needs than a 5th/6th starter.
I only see Arroyo back if Bailey is dealt before hand and they work out a 2/20 something deal.
Arroyo is a realist. Reds can't afford to make the qualifying offer. That is 14M that needs to be plowed into more pressing needs than a 5th/6th starter.
I only see Arroyo back if Bailey is dealt before hand and they work out a 2/20 something deal.
redsfandan (10-09-2013)
But Lohse did get $30 million ($33 million actually). If you're using Lohse as a worse-case scenario, then Arroyo winds up with $19 million guaranteed extra in the worst case scenario.Originally Posted by Beltway
I think one key thing you're missing is that Arroyo's agents will have the market pretty well sussed out before anyone has to make any decisions. Arroyo's team will pretty much know if there's a multi-year deal out there. It's really not that much of a leap of faith.
The one thing Arroyo has working in his favor is there's not exactly a glut of reliable pitching in MLB. Demand outstrips supply by a fairly wide margin on that one.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
REDREAD (10-09-2013)
Lohse is more like a best case scenario. Lohse is younger, and coming off a year with a below 3.00 ERA in over 200 IP. Lohse was very lucky to get the type of contract that he did. There were very few if any other interested teams all winter.
Since when has Arroyo been all about the money anyways? Didn't he give a hometown discount to the Red Sox early in his career? Why would he leave the team he has spent most of his career with if they made him an offer? The Reds won't make a qualifying offer, but if they did, Arroyo would take it.
I also think Lohse is the ceiling for an Arroyo deal despite the Boras antics.
What happened with Lohse had a lot to do with Scott Boras chasing away his market more the draft pick compensation chasing it away.
I can see the Reds not extending a QO to Arroyo, but I don't think the effects of extending a QO are so cut-and-dried. The complicating factor for Arroyo might be that the Reds guaranteed will extend a QO to Choo.
And wanting more years and guaranteed money doesn't make a guy greedy. It just makes him sensible.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
REDREAD (10-09-2013)
But Bronson is one of those pitchers who can look brilliant or hive up a multitude of runs. With the right contract, I'd bring him back, but I don't see that. With Leake being a clone of Bronson (soft tosses, brutally a danger of getting blasted), do we need two of those? That's the question Walt and the new manager has to answer.
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Today I learned that a pitcher who gives up fewer runs than most of the league while pitching more innings than the rest of the league and never missing a start in the process is below average.
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Here is the thing I can't get past. Bronson Arroyo will be 37 next season. I have a real appreciation for pitchers who take the ball, lay down a base of competitive innings and help the team to save the pen. OTOH, nothing lasts forever and time always catches up. Paying Arroyo like he'll do at ages 37, 38 and 39 the things he did at ages 28 to 35 seems crazy to me. If he doesn't continue to take the ball every fifth day and starts needing to miss starts as time catches up, there is little to set him apart from a myriad of other back-end starting pitchers. I just can't see paying him that extra cash for his primary attribute that father time is likely to remove from him soon. Once he starts being a guy who misses a few starts and maybe spends a stint or two on the DL as he ages, why have him locked up for 8 figures a season when there are serviceable back-end guys available for less each year to fill a hole in the rotation? If I'd have to give up a draft pick to get him, I'd certainly look elsewhere unless the money is a bargain. If the Reds make a QO, I just don't see him getting more than 2 years for a total of $15 to $20 Million and he'd be nuts not to take a one year deal for $14 Million and take his chances on doing it all over again after 2014.
Teams are going to be deciding between Arroyo, Paul Maholm, Scott Feldman and others of that back-end ilk. If Arroyo requires a draft pick to sign, what would be the reason to pick him? Durability? At age 37, I wouldn't give that much weight going forward. He'd need to come for less money or I'd just look elsewhere.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Congrats. This is an important step to truly understanding how runs are prevented.
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I'm not saying some teams won't see Lohse as a comp for Arroyo. They might. But they shouldn't. For anyone paying close attention, Lohse became an elite pitcher after his compartment syndrome was diagnosed and cured with surgery:
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewe...201563901.html
Lohse ERA in 2011 - 188.1 innings, 3.39 ERA
Lohse ERA in 2012 (age 34 season) - 211 innings, 2.86 ERA (2.95 post all star; 3.98 post season)
Arroyo ERA in 2012 - 202 innings, 3.74 ERA
Arroyo ERA in 2013 (age 36 season) - 202 innings, 3.79 ERA (4.37 post all star)
And park effects really can't be considered here because Arroyo has been worse on the road.
People above are correct to call Arroyo above average over the last 2 years, but he is not elite. And while his demise has been prematurely predicted before by many (including me), it wouldn't surprise me at all if he slipped to average or below average next year. I would be scared to death to give Arroyo a qualifying offer. Frankly, if I were Castellini, I'd forbid Walt from doing it.
Stick to your guns.
mth123 (10-09-2013)
There's a lot of talk about teams wanting to follow the Red Sox model from last offseason. Midrange, high-character free agents in lieu of high-contract star free agents.
Bodes well for Arroyo. If I were the Reds, I'd make him the qualifying offer.
joshua (10-11-2013),RED VAN HOT (10-09-2013)
let him go he is slightly above average and wants way above average money
Make him the QO. He won't take it. He needs to maximize $$$ at this point, even at the expense of years.
If someone offers him him 4/35, he'd take it over 3/30 and certainly over 1/14.
At least I would.
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joshua (10-11-2013),RedlegJake (10-09-2013),REDREAD (10-09-2013)
I'm having a little problem reconciling premise and conclusion here. I'm assuming you're assuming he refuses the qualifying offer--thus freeing up money for the Reds to do the sensible thing of reconfiguring the offense along the Red Sox model [?]
I think the Reds should make Arroyo a QO because it seems pretty likely that he'd turn it down and they'd be compensated for his departure but also, if they truly want him back it gives them leverage by exerting some pressure on the market.
Jeff Sullivan penned a piece on Morales and LaRoche that is on topic for this discussion. Even if they're not perfect comps it's an enjoyble read. Link below:
http://www.ussmariner.com/2013/10/08...nd-a-timeline/
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
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