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Thread: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

  1. #31
    Member RedsBrick's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by bob jones View Post
    cingrani is better and cheaper, let him walk
    TC is certainly cheaper but I'm not yet convinced he's better. The injury bug bit him this year. Bronson walks out there every 5 days...seemingly through the end of time, to gobble up innings.

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  4. #32
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Arroyo and Bailey put up almost identical numbers last year. Who knows what happens next year, but it's not like choosing between Greg Reynolds and Mat Latos.

    There are plenty of teams that crave a starting pitcher of Bailey's talent. Price on the block will have very little effect on Bailey's trade value, since he's on a different plane talent wise than Bailey. Bailey would never bring back the players that Price will, so they really aren't in competition. Even if they are, there are plenty of teams that will be bidding for Bailey'a services, regardless of Price.

    And if you don't want to trade Bailey, you could always trade Chapman. He definitely would bring pack a boatload of talent. In fact, if I'm the Reds, I'm offering him to the Rays for Price.
    I think Chapman is easily the guy to shop. He's under control for thee years and the rental aspect doesn't exist. The Reds have too much money committed to the pen and can get by with a cheaper option and he'll bring back more than Bailey would IMO. The main reason though, is the Reds have an in-house replacement in JJ Hoover and won't need to give $14 Million to a #4 starter just to have the depth to deal him. If you want to get anything back that will help in 2014, you have to have the budget to pay the guys coming back in the deal. Arroyo soaking up $14 Million prevents that. Shopping Chapman without an Arroyo $14 Million deal looming would allow the reds to hold out for what they want and not force them into accepting what's offered just to move the contract.

    Rays would never deal Price for a closer.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-06-2013 at 04:50 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think Chapman is easily the guy to shop. He's under control for thee years and the rental aspect doesn't exist. The Reds have too much money committed to the pen and can get by with a cheaper option and he'll bring back more than Bailey would IMO. The main reason though, is the Reds have an in-house replacement in JJ Hoover and won't need to give $14 Million to a #4 starter just to have the depth to deal him. If you want to get anything back that will help in 2014, you have to have the budget to pay the guys coming back in the deal. Arroyo soaking up $14 Million prevents that. Shopping Chapman without an Arroyo $14 Million deal looming would allow the reds to hold out for what they want and not force them into accepting what's offered just to move the contract.
    You're vastly overestimating the effect that payroll has on an individual's trade value. Every player who is traded is traded for a reason, and that's baked into his trade value.

    There is no gun to the Reds head to trade Bailey if Arroyo accepts their offer. They will have plenty of options to balance the payroll. Plus, they will have plenty of time to evaluate Bailey's trade value before they have to offer anything to Arroyo. If it's as bad as you say, then maybe they don't give Arroyo the offer. Regardless, the Reds will have plenty of options and plenty of time to figure them out.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    You're vastly overestimating the effect that payroll has on an individual's trade value. Every player who is traded is traded for a reason, and that's baked into his trade value.

    There is no gun to the Reds head to trade Bailey if Arroyo accepts their offer. They will have plenty of options to balance the payroll. Plus, they will have plenty of time to evaluate Bailey's trade value before they have to offer anything to Arroyo. If it's as bad as you say, then maybe they don't give Arroyo the offer. Regardless, the Reds will have plenty of options and plenty of time to figure them out.
    I keep hearing that money isn't an issue and that offering Arroyo $14 Million isn't a risk because the Reds budget can handle it. I think your looking at a payroll of around $120 Million+ even if none of the free agents come back and the Reds just bring back the guys they already have. That would be an increase of over 10% from the record payroll in 2013. How much do you think it goes up? They certainly acted like a team that was up against the budget ceiling at the deadline.

    If the Reds are over budget and need to deal some money off the roster, every GM will know it and they'll get lowballed for any player making decent money, not just Bailey. I just wouldn't risk adding to what may already be a difficult puzzle money wise by potentially overpaying Arroyo by $6 or $7 Million for 2014. If they want to deal Bailey to add offense, they can backfill with Scott Feldman or some one like that for half of the $14 Million Arroyo would get if he accepts an offer. I don't think the possibility of a Sandwich pick is worth handcuffing the GM during the off-season when so many holes need to be filled on the cheap as it is already.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    If the Reds are over budget and need to deal some money off the roster, every GM will know it and they'll get lowballed for any player making decent money, not just Bailey.
    A player's trade value is determined by three factors.

    1. How much he's worth to the team he's on.
    2. How much he's worth to the acquiring team.
    3. How many other teams want him.

    You are assuming only the first one applies in this situation.

    No team will low ball the Reds on Bailey, because their will be a plethora of other teams who will be willing to match the Reds price. There likely will be a bidding war for Bailey.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think your looking at a payroll of around $120 Million+ even if none of the free agents come back and the Reds just bring back the guys they already have.
    How do you figure that? Cot's shows $80M committed for next season. Where are you getting the other $40M? I'm seeing more like $100M after arbitration.

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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    How do you figure that? Cot's shows $80M committed for next season. Where are you getting the other $40M? I'm seeing more like $100M after arbitration.

    They're talking about the projected 2014 Reds budget. It's all projections at this point, although I think it can be reasonably assumed to be at least 110 million(that was the 2013 budget after you added in the Cleveland money for Choo).
    Last edited by AmarilloRed; 10-06-2013 at 06:25 PM.

  14. #38
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Pass.

  15. #39
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    How do you figure that? Cot's shows $80M committed for next season. Where are you getting the other $40M? I'm seeing more like $100M after arbitration.
    Code:
    Role	Name	Cost
    S1	Latos	 7.5 
    S2	Cueto	 10.0 
    S3	Bailey	 9.0 
    S4	Cingrani	 0.5 
    S5	Leake	 5.0 
    SW	Simon	 1.5 
    LOOGY	Duke	 0.7 
    RMR	Lecure	 1.5 
    RMR	Hoover	 0.5 
    RSU	Broxton	 7.0 
    LSU	Marshall	 5.5 
    CL	Chapman	 11.3 
    C	Mesoraco	 0.5 
    C	Hanigan	 2.8 
    1B	Votto	 12.0 
    2B	Phillips	 11.0 
    SS	Cozart	 1.0 
    3B	Frazier	 0.7 
    UI	Izturis?	 0.7 
    LF	Ludwick	 7.5 
    CF	Hamilton	 0.5 
    RF	Bruce	 10.0 
    4OF	Heisey	 2.5 
    5OF	Paul	 0.5 
    UI	Hannahan	 1.0 
    Minors	Ondrusek	 1.5 
    Injury Fill-ins	 2.0 
    Rest of 40 Man	 1.4 
    Total		 115.6
    This doesn't count Ludwick's 4.5 Million buy-out or any money paid to Arroyo from his deferral. Not sure how much the Reds will pay-out in cash for either of those, but they will cost something and it all comes out of the revenue generated in 2014. Hannahan also has a $2 Million buy-out at the end of the year.

    A lot of the published figures don't count Bonus money or buy-outs and only count Salary. For example, Chapman will get a $3 Million bonus as part of his original contract (his pre-negotiated salary converts to Bonus and then he goes to arb) and his original signing bonus of $15 Million is paid out over time with $1.25 Million paid each November. Most published numbers have him at just the already negotiated $3 Million, when in fact he'll cost $4.25 Million in cash for bonuses, plus whatever he'll get in arb (I've guessed $7 Million here)..
    Last edited by mth123; 10-06-2013 at 11:00 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    A player's trade value is determined by three factors.

    1. How much he's worth to the team he's on.
    2. How much he's worth to the acquiring team.
    3. How many other teams want him.

    You are assuming only the first one applies in this situation.

    No team will low ball the Reds on Bailey, because their will be a plethora of other teams who will be willing to match the Reds price. There likely will be a bidding war for Bailey.
    First and foremost, a guy's value is based on whatever you can negotiate. If you are in a position of being forced to deal to move money, the negotiating position is very weak. That's why the Mariners could only get Mike Cameron and three nobody's for Ken Griffey Jr. It's not about value once you back yourself into that corner. It's about what you can actually get..
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  17. #41
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Wow, your arbitration figures are higher than mine. This is what I had (but I'm just guessing, I don't really know)

    Code:
    Votto, Joey         $12.000
    Phillips, Brandon    11.000
    Bruce, Jay           10.042
    Cueto, Johnny        10.000
    Bailey, Homer         7.000
    Chapman, Aroldis      5.708
    Marshall, Sean        5.500
    Latos, Mat            7.250
    Broxton, Jonathan     7.000
    Leake, Mike           4.000
    Hanigan, Ryan         2.500
    Ludwick, Ryan         8.500
    Heisey, Chris         1.500
    Hannahan, Jack        1.000
    Simon, Alfredo        1.500
    Cozart, Zack          0.600
    Frazier, Todd         0.600
    LeCure, Sam           0.900
    Paul, Xavier	      0.750
    Mesoraco, Devin       0.500
    Hoover, J.J.          0.500
    Cingrani, Tony        0.500
    Ondrusek, Logan       1.350
    23 PLAYERS TOTAL   $100.200

  18. #42
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Wow, your arbitration figures are higher than mine. This is what I had (but I'm just guessing, I don't really know)

    Code:
    Votto, Joey         $12.000
    Phillips, Brandon    11.000
    Bruce, Jay           10.042
    Cueto, Johnny        10.000
    Bailey, Homer         7.000
    Chapman, Aroldis      5.708
    Marshall, Sean        5.500
    Latos, Mat            7.250
    Broxton, Jonathan     7.000
    Leake, Mike           4.000
    Hanigan, Ryan         2.500
    Ludwick, Ryan         8.500
    Heisey, Chris         1.500
    Hannahan, Jack        1.000
    Simon, Alfredo        1.500
    Cozart, Zack          0.600
    Frazier, Todd         0.600
    LeCure, Sam           0.900
    Paul, Xavier	      0.750
    Mesoraco, Devin       0.500
    Hoover, J.J.          0.500
    Cingrani, Tony        0.500
    Ondrusek, Logan       1.350
    23 PLAYERS TOTAL   $100.200
    Bailey made over $5 Million this year and will be in his last year of arb. $7 Million seems low to me, but my $9 Million might be high as well. Chapman will get $4.25 Million before he ever goes to arbitration. If you're number just represents his arb award, it could happen I guess. 2 Time All Star, Sort of a cult figure. $7 Million seems reasonable to me. I may be high on Heisey and Hanigan, but Hanigan made over 2 Million this year (I'd actually non-tender both of them if I were king). Lecure deserves more than $900K, but I don't really remember many awards to middle relievers.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  19. #43
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Bailey made over $5 Million this year and will be in his last year of arb. $7 Million seems low to me, but my $9 Million might be high as well. Chapman will get $4.25 Million before he ever goes to arbitration. If you're number just represents his arb award, it could happen I guess. 2 Time All Star, Sort of a cult figure. $7 Million seems reasonable to me. I may be high on Heisey and Hanigan, but Hanigan made over 2 Million this year (I'd actually non-tender both of them if I were king). Lecure deserves more than $900K, but I don't really remember many awards to middle relievers.
    Hannigan getting over 2 million and Heisey getting 1.5 million is a crime...sorry.
    Not this year...maybe a Wild Card

  20. #44
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Foster View Post
    Hannigan getting over 2 million and Heisey getting 1.5 million is a crime...sorry.
    Agreed, but arbitration is basically license to steal so it happens. Non-tender is my vote.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  21. #45
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Bailey made over $5 Million this year and will be in his last year of arb. $7 Million seems low to me, but my $9 Million might be high as well. Chapman will get $4.25 Million before he ever goes to arbitration. If you're number just represents his arb award, it could happen I guess. 2 Time All Star, Sort of a cult figure. $7 Million seems reasonable to me. I may be high on Heisey and Hanigan, but Hanigan made over 2 Million this year (I'd actually non-tender both of them if I were king). Lecure deserves more than $900K, but I don't really remember many awards to middle relievers.
    I got Chapman's number from Cots. I thought he had a negotiated contract and wasn't arb eligible? If he's really $11M I'd definitely look to move him. Of course, I'd probably move Bailey too at $9M. Regarding Hanigan, do arbitration guys always get a raise? Is it possible he takes a cut given how awful he was? Don't know. I got LeCure's number because that's what Simon got last year and his 2012 numbers were pretty much identical to LeCure's 2013. Like I said, just guessing.

    Say I'm at $105 once you fill out the roster. I'll split the difference with you and say $110.


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