Always Red (10-07-2013),Caveat Emperor (10-07-2013),Chip R (10-07-2013),joshua (10-06-2013),redsfanmia (10-06-2013),wlf WV (10-06-2013)
I think Chapman is easily the guy to shop. He's under control for thee years and the rental aspect doesn't exist. The Reds have too much money committed to the pen and can get by with a cheaper option and he'll bring back more than Bailey would IMO. The main reason though, is the Reds have an in-house replacement in JJ Hoover and won't need to give $14 Million to a #4 starter just to have the depth to deal him. If you want to get anything back that will help in 2014, you have to have the budget to pay the guys coming back in the deal. Arroyo soaking up $14 Million prevents that. Shopping Chapman without an Arroyo $14 Million deal looming would allow the reds to hold out for what they want and not force them into accepting what's offered just to move the contract.
Rays would never deal Price for a closer.
Last edited by mth123; 10-06-2013 at 03:50 PM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
joshua (10-06-2013)
You're vastly overestimating the effect that payroll has on an individual's trade value. Every player who is traded is traded for a reason, and that's baked into his trade value.
There is no gun to the Reds head to trade Bailey if Arroyo accepts their offer. They will have plenty of options to balance the payroll. Plus, they will have plenty of time to evaluate Bailey's trade value before they have to offer anything to Arroyo. If it's as bad as you say, then maybe they don't give Arroyo the offer. Regardless, the Reds will have plenty of options and plenty of time to figure them out.
Hoping to change my username to 75769023
I keep hearing that money isn't an issue and that offering Arroyo $14 Million isn't a risk because the Reds budget can handle it. I think your looking at a payroll of around $120 Million+ even if none of the free agents come back and the Reds just bring back the guys they already have. That would be an increase of over 10% from the record payroll in 2013. How much do you think it goes up? They certainly acted like a team that was up against the budget ceiling at the deadline.
If the Reds are over budget and need to deal some money off the roster, every GM will know it and they'll get lowballed for any player making decent money, not just Bailey. I just wouldn't risk adding to what may already be a difficult puzzle money wise by potentially overpaying Arroyo by $6 or $7 Million for 2014. If they want to deal Bailey to add offense, they can backfill with Scott Feldman or some one like that for half of the $14 Million Arroyo would get if he accepts an offer. I don't think the possibility of a Sandwich pick is worth handcuffing the GM during the off-season when so many holes need to be filled on the cheap as it is already.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
A player's trade value is determined by three factors.
1. How much he's worth to the team he's on.
2. How much he's worth to the acquiring team.
3. How many other teams want him.
You are assuming only the first one applies in this situation.
No team will low ball the Reds on Bailey, because their will be a plethora of other teams who will be willing to match the Reds price. There likely will be a bidding war for Bailey.
Hoping to change my username to 75769023
joshua (10-06-2013)
MattyHo4Life (10-06-2013)
Last edited by AmarilloRed; 10-06-2013 at 05:25 PM.
Pass.
This doesn't count Ludwick's 4.5 Million buy-out or any money paid to Arroyo from his deferral. Not sure how much the Reds will pay-out in cash for either of those, but they will cost something and it all comes out of the revenue generated in 2014. Hannahan also has a $2 Million buy-out at the end of the year.Code:Role Name Cost S1 Latos 7.5 S2 Cueto 10.0 S3 Bailey 9.0 S4 Cingrani 0.5 S5 Leake 5.0 SW Simon 1.5 LOOGY Duke 0.7 RMR Lecure 1.5 RMR Hoover 0.5 RSU Broxton 7.0 LSU Marshall 5.5 CL Chapman 11.3 C Mesoraco 0.5 C Hanigan 2.8 1B Votto 12.0 2B Phillips 11.0 SS Cozart 1.0 3B Frazier 0.7 UI Izturis? 0.7 LF Ludwick 7.5 CF Hamilton 0.5 RF Bruce 10.0 4OF Heisey 2.5 5OF Paul 0.5 UI Hannahan 1.0 Minors Ondrusek 1.5 Injury Fill-ins 2.0 Rest of 40 Man 1.4 Total 115.6
A lot of the published figures don't count Bonus money or buy-outs and only count Salary. For example, Chapman will get a $3 Million bonus as part of his original contract (his pre-negotiated salary converts to Bonus and then he goes to arb) and his original signing bonus of $15 Million is paid out over time with $1.25 Million paid each November. Most published numbers have him at just the already negotiated $3 Million, when in fact he'll cost $4.25 Million in cash for bonuses, plus whatever he'll get in arb (I've guessed $7 Million here)..
Last edited by mth123; 10-06-2013 at 10:00 PM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
First and foremost, a guy's value is based on whatever you can negotiate. If you are in a position of being forced to deal to move money, the negotiating position is very weak. That's why the Mariners could only get Mike Cameron and three nobody's for Ken Griffey Jr. It's not about value once you back yourself into that corner. It's about what you can actually get..
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Wow, your arbitration figures are higher than mine. This is what I had (but I'm just guessing, I don't really know)
Code:Votto, Joey $12.000 Phillips, Brandon 11.000 Bruce, Jay 10.042 Cueto, Johnny 10.000 Bailey, Homer 7.000 Chapman, Aroldis 5.708 Marshall, Sean 5.500 Latos, Mat 7.250 Broxton, Jonathan 7.000 Leake, Mike 4.000 Hanigan, Ryan 2.500 Ludwick, Ryan 8.500 Heisey, Chris 1.500 Hannahan, Jack 1.000 Simon, Alfredo 1.500 Cozart, Zack 0.600 Frazier, Todd 0.600 LeCure, Sam 0.900 Paul, Xavier 0.750 Mesoraco, Devin 0.500 Hoover, J.J. 0.500 Cingrani, Tony 0.500 Ondrusek, Logan 1.350 23 PLAYERS TOTAL $100.200
Bailey made over $5 Million this year and will be in his last year of arb. $7 Million seems low to me, but my $9 Million might be high as well. Chapman will get $4.25 Million before he ever goes to arbitration. If you're number just represents his arb award, it could happen I guess. 2 Time All Star, Sort of a cult figure. $7 Million seems reasonable to me. I may be high on Heisey and Hanigan, but Hanigan made over 2 Million this year (I'd actually non-tender both of them if I were king). Lecure deserves more than $900K, but I don't really remember many awards to middle relievers.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I got Chapman's number from Cots. I thought he had a negotiated contract and wasn't arb eligible? If he's really $11M I'd definitely look to move him. Of course, I'd probably move Bailey too at $9M. Regarding Hanigan, do arbitration guys always get a raise? Is it possible he takes a cut given how awful he was? Don't know. I got LeCure's number because that's what Simon got last year and his 2012 numbers were pretty much identical to LeCure's 2013. Like I said, just guessing.
Say I'm at $105 once you fill out the roster. I'll split the difference with you and say $110.
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