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Thread: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

  1. #46
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    I got Chapman's number from Cots. I thought he had a negotiated contract and wasn't arb eligible? If he's really $11M I'd definitely look to move him. Of course, I'd probably move Bailey too at $9M. Regarding Hanigan, do arbitration guys always get a raise? Is it possible he takes a cut given how awful he was? Don't know. I got LeCure's number because that's what Simon got last year and his 2012 numbers were pretty much identical to LeCure's 2013. Like I said, just guessing.

    Say I'm at $105 once you fill out the roster. I'll split the difference with you and say $110.
    Seems like they always get a raise to me.

    Chapman's remaining salary converts to a signing bonus once he becomes arb eligible (this off-season) and the team needs to go to arb with him. Here is the entire blurb on Chapman from Cot's. I've bolded the parts that people overlook when adding up money. The service time shown is before the 2013 season, so he's arb eligible now.


    Aroldis Chapman lhp
    6 years/$30.25M (2010-15)
    ◾6 years/$30.25M (2010-15)
    ◾signed by Cincinnati as an amateur free agent 1/11/10
    ◾$16.25M signing bonus ($1.5M at signing; $1.5M each Nov. 1, 2010-13; $1.25M each Nov. 1, 2014-20)
    ◾10:$1M, 11:$1M, 12:$2M, 13:$2M, 14:$3M, 15:$5M player option
    ◾Chapman must decide whether to accept or decline 2015 player option within 5 days after end of 2014 World Series
    ◾if Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2012, $5M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible
    if Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2013, $3M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible
    ◾award bonuses, including $25,000 for All-Star selection
    ◾defected from Cuba to Netherlands 7/1/09
    ◾agent: Rodney Fernandez, Hendricks Sports
    ◾ML service: 2.034
    So say you're at $105 using your numbers. Add in $4.25 for Chapman's bonus money, $2 Million for Hannahan's buy-out. Something for Ludwick's buy-out (not the full $4.5 Million since it's deferred) and something for Arroyo's unfunded deferral and we aren't as far apart as you think. I could easily be high on the arb guys. Heisey and Lecure most likely and maybe Bailey. I think you are low on Chapman and Leake though.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-06-2013 at 10:52 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #47
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    I was wondering why you seemed so high on dealing Chapman. Now I'm in that camp 100%. If Walt pays a closer $11M then he's crazy and we deserve to lose. Send him packing!

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  5. #48
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    I was wondering why you seemed so high on dealing Chapman. Now I'm in that camp 100%. If Walt pays a closer $11M then he's crazy and we deserve to lose. Send him packing!
    The Reds would probably still be stuck with the $1.25 Million from his original signing bonus, but moving the rest of that money and getting some high end kids seems wise to me. Hoover can close.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  7. #49
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    So the point of all this is that it will probably take some maneuvering to have the funds for a bat at one of the open positions. If not Choo, then Ellsbury or some one else should be pursued. Even if it's a trade for some one like Coco Crisp or some other player, there still needs to be budget room to add that player.

    Why in the world should the Reds complicate that situation by risking Arroyo accepting a $14 Million qualifying offer? A sandwich pick just isn't worth it IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  8. #50
    Member joshua's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Between moving Bailey and Chapman we should get a serviceable MLB... ready bat in return...plus good prospects.

    I'd be all for moving non-core players (Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Latos) to get younger, extend who we should and rebuild for 2015/16/17. We are spending way more than we should. If we add payroll to try to squeeze a WS out in the next few years, we will have to rebuild anyways. I'd like to have a more solid plan going forward now than end up with untradable parts and horrid contracts later.

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  10. #51
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Reds likely won't trade Chapman, nor should they. Arroyo is likely gone. Bailey is gone soon. Cueto/Cingrani were injured. Latos couldn't pitch the Wild Card game because of soreness.
    Broxton and Marshall hurt.

    Chapman is a healthy, strong, unique arm, without too much mileage on it. If you're not getting your money's worth, use him more, or start him. I think Walt will order that he starts next year especially if Bailey is traded. Don't be hung up on the previous usage of the player.

    All the talk about trading him is misplaced. It's just a reaction to the valuing of closers on this board. Aroldis is considered non-essential since he closed. If he was a starter nobody would want him traded. Focus on the talent level, the youth, the lack of mileage. Usage can be changed.

    Chapman will win you playoff games. Keep diluting your top arms and you will be the Brewers.

    And nobody on this board knows the Reds revenue situation or what they can afford.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-07-2013 at 12:19 AM.

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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    So the point of all this is that it will probably take some maneuvering to have the funds for a bat at one of the open positions. If not Choo, then Ellsbury or some one else should be pursued. Even if it's a trade for some one like Coco Crisp or some other player, there still needs to be budget room to add that player.

    Why in the world should the Reds complicate that situation by risking Arroyo accepting a $14 Million qualifying offer? A sandwich pick just isn't worth it IMO.
    Fr the record, it's not a sandwich pick, it's a true first round pick, unless the team signing him has one of the first ten picks, which is highly unlikely.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    óBill Cosby

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Lets just say I strongly, stubbornly disagree completely and totally with mth and his supporters on this one. That's unusual actually, he and I are usually pretty close in opinion on most stuff. I really do believe Arroyo believes he will get a three year gig for 12-14 million per, and will turn down a QA. I also think its folly to turn your back on a first round pick (NOT a sandwich pick as 757690 points out). You might as well say - "Oh the farm doesn't matter at all - the heck with it"
    No - I am not from State Farm!

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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by George Foster View Post
    Hannigan getting over 2 million and Heisey getting 1.5 million is a crime...sorry.
    I think dropping 20+ Million on Broxton, Ludwick and Marshall is an even bigger crime.

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  17. #55
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    I make Arroyo a qualifying offer. If he takes it, I'm ok with that. BA is a good risk even at his age for every reason he listed.

    I'd be taking suitors for Mike Leake though. If BA takes the offer, I'm offering up Leake and Ludwick for a LF with good OB skills. This team has power, but it needs more than two guys that know how to get on base, and that's assuming the Reds keep Choo. Cingrani takes Leake's spot in the rotation. I make no assumption Hamilton is the new CF in this scenario. He did not have a good year at AAA, but I believe I saw enough to say he's ready. But I ain't running the Reds.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  18. #56
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    There is no way the Reds are going to make a qualifying offer of 13-14M for Arroyo given the current payroll commitments, Cingrani waiting in the wings and arb raises.

    The only scenario would be if Bailey was dealt necessitating the need for a 5th starter (and then Chapman could fill the slot) or they had a wink-wink that he would turn down the offer.

  19. #57
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by oregonred View Post
    There is no way the Reds are going to make a qualifying offer of 13-14M for Arroyo given the current payroll commitments, Cingrani waiting in the wings and arb raises.

    The only scenario would be if Bailey was dealt necessitating the need for a 5th starter (and then Chapman could fill the slot) or they had a wink-wink that he would turn down the offer.
    I'd bet even money that Bailey is traded this off-season regardless of what happens with Arroyo. Chapman to the rotation. If Arroyo accepts, it just means starting spring training with six starters, but three of whom, Cueto, Cingrani, and Chapman, aren't sure things.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    óBill Cosby

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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    If it's really a 13-14 million offer, then the Reds likely can't make it to BA.

    Too bad because I think he will get 2-3 years elsewhere and accept it. BA would want the longer deal, he doesn't want to be looking for a job again after 2014.

    But at that price level, given the Reds apparent tight finances, I don't think they'd make the gamble, even if remote.

    I think the Reds will look at BA's salary slot as one that helps them reload a bit for next season. Don't want to risk losing that payflex should Bronson accept the offer.

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  22. #59
    Custodial Engineer Bob Sheed's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Arroyo does seem like one of those soft-tossers that get better with age until their late 30s.

    Problem is, he's in his late 30s.
    "And why do false truths persist, getting passed down the decades as if they were fact? It comes back to the same point: People believe things that are wrong because, individually, people rarely investigate their own beliefs, particularly when what they believe makes sense intuitively. Even more so when those around them agree with them." -K.F.

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    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: per mlbtraderumors.com, Bronson Arroyo wants a 3 year deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by bob jones View Post
    cingrani is better and cheaper, let him walk
    He'd nod along, but his back still really hurts.

    Meanwhile, Bronson Arroyo has never missed a start.
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