Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

[Superdude]

You can't wait forever if you want to exploit Hamilton's speed. He either needs to be playing in MLB soon or traded before the bloom is off the rose.

Is exploiting his speed really the objective? I'd rather groom a dynamic lead off hitter with a skillet that hasn't been seen in decades.

[MoneyInTheBank]

He is joking around with his fans and followers on twitter. That is why he added the "lol" and the emoticon, his implication is him and the Braves SS as a double play tandem. It is him messing around with fans who have heard the rumors.

You are reading WAAAAAY too far into it. He's saying "don't hit it up the middle because Simmons will be there" not "I'm going to join him as an up the middle tandem"

[MoneyInTheBank]

I'm sure we all watched Hamilton's impact as a pinch runner in September.

The Reds will win several close games (otherwise lost) if Hamilton is on the base paths.

He absolutely has to be on the ballclub.

Hamilton is different. You can't use the usual measures and the usual patterns. If Hamilton was on the Reds' bench all year in 2013 IMO they would have won several more games and maybe had a better playoff position. I'd say probably would have.

If Hamilton is on the club all year, they win a few more games, maybe win the division, then lose in the first round instead of the wild card game?

If you are content with Hamilton being a backup and pinch runner for the rest of his career, fine, have him on the roster all year. If you want a dynamic every day player, let him get every day ABs in AAA and bring him up midseason if he's ready.

[Old school 1983]

and 3/4 of his PAs with nobody on base. Hamilton will still be picked off and thrown out some, so there will be some other bases empty situations on top of that. Stacking the two spots in front of Votto with the pitcher and a .250ish OBP seems like a bad plan no matter how many bases he steals. When he does steel, the best hitter in the NL will be walked harmlessly. I really hope they get that top notch guy in the 3 hole.

He's walked harmlessly followed by a plus right handed bat then Bruce. Wouldn't mind that situation either. A combo of Hamilton and votto 1 2 would more than likely be better than choo followed by a joke like this year. Especially against left handed pitching. And the .250 OBP would be if he completely tanks which I don't see happening. The guy is ready to learn and play at the big league level. Trading a major piece for a CF will probably result in a redundant piece unless somehow you could get kemp or jones. Billy could be an exciting dynamic leadoff hitter now. If we're waiting for him to put up some huge OBP number in AAA we may be waiting forever. Let the guy develop in the bigs. He does more with a stubbsesque 2012 OBP than Stubbs and that team won 97 games because the rest of the lineup was better. Build your lineup around your best hitter. Make votto better, you make the team better. Hamilton allows him to see more fastballs. A right handed power bat behind him that can instantly punish a walk with a homer exploits vottos OBP skills. Get a leadoff hitter instead of a power bat behind votto, then we probably have the same OBP then hole issue like last year.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I'm not basing my opinion on just what he did last year. I'm looking at the warts too. In 2012 the reds won 97 games with Drew Stubbs leading off and having an OBP of .277. Last year they won 7 less with choo having a stellar OBP. I have to ask why. A minor factor would be the loss of Houston and the pirates being better. So if that's the case, then maybe Stubbs v. Choo is a wash. So why? In 2012 the the heart of the reds lineup was chugging along. A nice year from votto ludwick Phillips and probably a career year from Frazier. Compare that to 2013. We had one great OBP followed by a hole in the lineup. The heart of the lineup was often staggered with huge peaks and valleys in production. One great OBP followed by a meh OBP. That is the main issue with the reds lineup, not a high OBP leadoff guy or lack thereof. Resources need to be used to acquire a starting big right handed bat for either left or 3b at this point and a nice platoon partner for the tensing position as well as a solid replacement for 2b and a closer if chapman goes into the rotation. History tells us that the reds can win without a huge leadoff OBP, but aren't as good without consistent production throught the lineup.

When comes to the power, Stubbs did have 14 homers, but Hamilton will probably have more steals. It's a trade off. Hamilton also realizes he is not a power hitter. He'll be bunting and trying to make contact on the ground. The guy best out a routine grounder to second. That's nuts. Plus he'd be a huge defensive upgrade over choo. A lineup of

Hamilton
Votto
Acquired right bat
Bruce
Ludwick/Frazier (platooned with whoever)
Mes
Cozart/acquired 2b
Cozart/acquired 2b

Is better than what the reds ran out the majority of last year.

The Reds scored 29 more runs last year and gave up just one more. That was with no production from the catchers, no Ludwick almost all year and a downgrade in 3B OPS. I certainly don't think that screams "Choo = Stubbs"

[mth123]

He's walked harmlessly followed by a plus right handed bat then Bruce. Wouldn't mind that situation either. A combo of Hamilton and votto 1 2 would more than likely be better than choo followed by a joke like this year. Especially against left handed pitching.

So what is your idea for this big RH bat for the 3 hole. Who do you have in mind? How do they get him? How do they pay him?

I'm guessing it's Bautista, and I could get on board with that, but I still think they need to address CF so Hamilton can go down and develop into a guy who gets on enough avoid fading away like Willy Taveras.

[757690]

If Hamilton is on the club all year, they win a few more games, maybe win the division, then lose in the first round instead of the wild card game?

If you are content with Hamilton being a backup and pinch runner for the rest of his career, fine, have him on the roster all year. If you want a dynamic every day player, let him get every day ABs in AAA and bring him up midseason if he's ready.

Players actually develop better in the majors, than in AAA. The reason why you generally want to keep not fully developed players in the majors is because they will hurt the MLB team, not because they won't develop when in the majors.

I think September demonstrated that Hamilton is a positive to the MLB team when on the roster. There's no reason to think he can't be a helpful piece of a contending team as a super sub, and develop into a full time starting player at the same time.

[RedlegJake]

Players actually develop better in the majors, than in AAA. The reason why you generally want to keep not fully developed players in the majors is because they will hurt the MLB team, not because they won't develop when in the majors.

I'd say this is a huge misstatement. Players can develop in the majors but I believe it tends to matter what skills they are deficient in. Also it depends on how close they are. If they are way over matched they hurt the club but also their own development lags or stops completely. To me it depends on how the coaches see BH - close enough to learn on the job or over matched to the point his development will be hurt. That does make the part true about hurting the team, though. Hamilton is a special case - his speed and base running are so disruptive he can help even if he is outclassed, especially as a sub and pinch runner. Whether that helps him, though, is a different question.

[Old school 1983]

So what is your idea for this big RH bat for the 3 hole. Who do you have in mind? How do they get him? How do they pay him?

I'm guessing it's Bautista, and I could get on board with that, but I still think they need to address CF so Hamilton can go down and develop into a guy who gets on enough avoid fading away like Willy Taveras.

Bautista would be option one for me. Phillips cueto to Toronto for him izturis and a prospect or BP arm works for me.

Kemp is said to be available. I'd look into it. The orioles are always looking for pitching. Maybe offer cueto for jones. Headley would be a choo like rental who I think would play good D and offensively take off in GABP.

But for a plan I'd go...
1. Hanigan and a prospect to Tampa for beckham. It gives the reds a real major league ready middle infielder something they lack and depth in the event if a Phillips trade.
2. Phillips Cueto mabye a B level prospect to Toronto for Bautista izturis and a BP arm.
3. Chapman to rotation sign a closer. Flooded market for those this winter.
4. If Bautista plays left try to get Chavez for third. If he plays third try to get a solid big league backup for center.

[757690]

I'd say this is a huge misstatement. Players can develop in the majors but I believe it tends to matter what skills they are deficient in. Also it depends on how close they are. If they are way over matched they hurt the club but also their own development lags or stops completely. To me it depends on how the coaches see BH - close enough to learn on the job or over matched to the point his development will be hurt. That does make the part true about hurting the team, though. Hamilton is a special case - his speed and base running are so disruptive he can help even if he is outclassed, especially as a sub and pinch runner. Whether that helps him, though, is a different question.

Good points. But I was assuming they were ready for AAA. If they're ready for AAA, they can develop better in the majors, since that will be the type and level of competition they will need to learn to play against. I think Hamilton showed in September that while he has a way to go, he won't be overmatched if he plays in the majors in 2014.

[mth123]

Good points. But I was assuming they were ready for AAA. If they're ready for AAA, they can develop better in the majors, since that will be the type and level of competition they will need to learn to play against. I think Hamilton showed in September that while he has a way to go, he won't be overmatched if he plays in the majors in 2014.

You got that from 22 Plate Appearances? You are the all time guru of talent evaluation if so.

I'll stick with the fact that he was overmatched in AAA as a better indicator.

[Old school 1983]

The Reds scored 29 more runs last year and gave up just one more. That was with no production from the catchers, no Ludwick almost all year and a downgrade in 3B OPS. I certainly don't think that screams "Choo = Stubbs"

Probably a bad case of wording. The 2012 team and 2013 teams could be considered a wash considering the loss of Houston from the NL central and the improvement of the pirates. My point being that the team can accomplish more with a lesser OBP in the leadoff spot if the rest of the lineup is solid than they could from a great OBP in leadoff with a less than stellar supporting cast. Not that Stubbs is equal to choo.

[757690]

You got that from 22 Plate Appearances? You are the all time guru of talent evaluation if so.

I'll stick with the fact that he was overmatched in AAA as a better indicator.

Only he wasn't overmatched in AAA the second half of the season.

And yes, I can tell if a player is overmatched in 22 AB's. I could tell that Mike Costanzo was overmatched after 2 AB's. Overmatched means he has no business being the majors. Hamilton proved that wasn't the case in September. How good or bad he'll be is another question.

[SteelSD]

Bautista would be option one for me. Phillips cueto to Toronto for him izturis and a prospect or BP arm works for me.

Kemp is said to be available. I'd look into it. The orioles are always looking for pitching. Maybe offer cueto for jones. Headley would be a choo like rental who I think would play good D and offensively take off in GABP.

But for a plan I'd go...
1. Hanigan and a prospect to Tampa for beckham. It gives the reds a real major league ready middle infielder something they lack and depth in the event if a Phillips trade.
2. Phillips Cueto mabye a B level prospect to Toronto for Bautista izturis and a BP arm.
3. Chapman to rotation sign a closer. Flooded market for those this winter.
4. If Bautista plays left try to get Chavez for third. If he plays third try to get a solid big league backup for center.

2014 Salaries:

Matt Kemp: 21M Signed through 2019 (escalates to 21.5M)
Jose Bautista: 14M Signed through 2016 (team option @2016)
Adam Jones: 13M Signed through 2018 (escalates to 17M)

And the plan is to include Cueto in a trade for one of these guys? Moves like that are how mid and small market teams die.

[mth123]

Probably a bad case of wording. The 2012 team and 2013 teams could be considered a wash considering the loss of Houston from the NL central and the improvement of the pirates. My point being that the team can accomplish more with a lesser OBP in the leadoff spot if the rest of the lineup is solid than they could from a great OBP in leadoff with a less than stellar supporting cast. Not that Stubbs is equal to choo.

The part of your logic that I'm having trouble with is the idea that improving CF means status quo everywhere else. I think the Reds need some improved production in a few spots as well as adding a competent place-keeper in CF. If they get better than that in CF and Hamilton bursts on the scene, it's not really a problem is it? LF will be open in 2015, maybe sooner if Ludwick tanks. I'm more comfortable with Ludwick/Paul holding down LF and adding a CF than I am going after a LF and handing CF over to a .308 AAA OBP with no power.