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Thread: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

  1. #736
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    It's not that he doesn't have upside but that he has reached that upside and will either plateau or go down. When considering his recent injuries 2012 may very well have been that peak and or plateau. 2013 showed that the rotation can be very effective sans cueto and other teams still may see that ace upside, so I think he could be a viable trade candidate because we can have a solid rotation without him and that other teams will still see value in that upside
    So a guy who "plateaus" at a sub-3.00 ERA in a hitter's park is to be discounted exactly why?

    If Cueto retired today, he'd finish with the lowest career Starter's ERA Reds fans have seen since Mario Soto and Jose Rijo.

    And what the Reds get for that is to have him included as only a piece of a trade for either aging or expensive (or both) outfielders?

    No.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Is it realistic for him to be a sub at SS and 2B? I might be able to go for that if so (but 500 PAs is probably too many, 300 would be more likely). Hamilton instead of Izturis wouldn't be crippling like him as the every day starter in CF. I think the IF ship has sailed though. He'd be a PR and 5th OFer in that plan.
    He'd be a better defensive SS and 2b than Itzuris was last season.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If used correctly, subbing for Cozart, Whoever plays second, and all three OF positions, Hamilton should get 450-500 AB's, which is about what he would get in AAA. Plus, he'll be facing the same competition he will be facing the rest of his career, and will be grating used to MLB life, which is a very big deal.
    You are changing your whole story now. Before, it was as a BACKUP CF, SS and maybe 2B making a huge impact as a pinch runner. Now, you're playing him 125 games at 5 different positions and I guess pinch running 37 times. Those things are drastically different, IMO

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    It's not that he doesn't have upside but that he has reached that upside and will either plateau or go down. When considering his recent injuries 2012 may very well have been that peak and or plateau.
    I guess I'm a little confused as to why that's a bad thing. Kershaw's probably plateaud too, but I don't think the dodgers are shopping him.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Career Splits:

    Shin Soo Choo vs. LHP: .243 BA/.340 OBP/.341 SLG
    Adam Jones vs. LHP: .259 BA/.309 OBP/.395 SLG
    Colby Rasmus vs. LHP: .216 BA/.286 OBP/.357 SLG

    Yeah. Choo. "Platoon". Right. Look at Jones and Rasmus. These are terrible targets if you want someone who can hit southpaws.

    Jose Bautista is older than Choo and is the epitome of someone who's being paid because into his mid-30's because he had a career year a few seasons ago. Matt Kemp is owed 128 Million dollars on a deal where he's paid into his mid-30's and was terrible last year.

    You need new targets.
    First off my goal is to improve the total offense not to punish left handed pitching. And for your stats you've cherry picked the three worst players possible
    That I've mentioned versus left handed pitching.

    First off I'm not considering choo. Off the top if my head I think he batter .214 versus lefties this year. He brings great OBP skills and I'd love to have him back but I think the contract he wants would strap the reds with a guy with limited hitting ability versus left handed pitching and plays poor D.

    As far as Rasmus goes I'd only be interesting in acquiring him as part of a deal that included Bautista. You failed to mention that as well.

    Now let's look at the guys I've actually advocated for. These are their ops according to fan graphs for 2013 and career.

    Ops
    Jones .732 (career) .705
    Kemp .853 (career) .976
    Bautista .910 (career) .877

    Let's start at the bottom. Jones. If he were acquired he'd go to center and Hamilton would be relegated to a bench role or AAA. Despite his .705 career ops vs left handed pitching, that trend has been upward in recent years and he brings gold glove D and significant power to the reds. A definite upgrade to the outfield over Hamilton.

    Let's go to kemp. His career ops v. Left handed pitching is .976. That's elite level. He also brings elite level defense and great speed. There is an injury history there but I'm talking about a deal involving cueto do the dodgers would have an injury risk as well. He'd be a definite upgrade to the out to everyone with the exception of Bruce and that could be argueable.

    Lastly there is Bautista. The guy who I have most advocated the reds trade for recently. His ops numbers vs lefties are (.910 (career) .877. To top that off he is also a tremendous power threat and that threat would be accentuated by 81 games in GABP furthermore he can play LF and 3b two positions of possible upgrade for the reds.

    So concluding, my goal is to improve the reds offense as a unit not to crush left handed pitching. And secondly you cherry picked the worst players I mentioned against left handed pitching instead of using the main players I've been promoting. Namely in the order of Bautista kemp and jones.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Is exploiting his speed really the objective? I'd rather groom a dynamic lead off hitter with a skillet that hasn't been seen in decades.
    Call it what you want--exploit, use, get the most out of. By his late 20's that speed will be a greatly attenuated tool. The x-factor is his bat. Smart people make lots of money predicting a guy's hitting ability.

    I'm one who believes there's probably not a ton to be learned from facing the Greg Reynoldses of the world in AAA. Test the bat at MLB. The belief that guys need more time in AAA is based on counterfactuals, not science. Get that speed in the lineup in the eight hole if you must.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    First off my goal is to improve the total offense not to punish left handed pitching. And for your stats you've cherry picked the three worst players possible That I've mentioned versus left handed pitching.
    I haven't "cherry-picked" anything. Those were your targets and you were the one who brought up "platoon" regarding Choo. Yet, you hadn't considered the splits for some of your targets, which (surprise) were actually worse than Choo's.

    First off I'm not considering choo. Off the top if my head I think he batter .214 versus lefties this year. He brings great OBP skills and I'd love to have him back but I think the contract he wants would strap the reds with a guy with limited hitting ability versus left handed pitching and plays poor D.
    Of course you're not considering Choo. You've never considered him because you have it in your head that he's expensive, somehow blocking Hamilton, and that the Reds need hitters who can school left-handed pitching. Yet, we look at your targets and see that some of those hitters not only have worse splits than does Choo, but who are also expensive while a guy like Choo isn't actually blocking anything and wouldn't take player resources to acquire. Resources like top-notch affordable starting pitchers.

    As far as Rasmus goes I'd only be interesting in acquiring him as part of a deal that included Bautista. You failed to mention that as well.
    Bautista isn't worth targeting if Cueto is involved, so why not Rasmus on his own? Keep in mind that he's arbitration-eligible, FA-eligible in 2015, is one-season removed from a sub-.700 OPS, and can't hit lefties at all. So there are warts...

    Either are players you throw minor-league chaff at; not top-of-rotation SP's.

    Now let's look at the guys I've actually advocated for. These are their ops according to fan graphs for 2013 and career.

    Ops
    Jones .732 (career) .705
    Kemp .853 (career) .976
    Bautista .910 (career) .877

    Let's start at the bottom. Jones. If he were acquired he'd go to center and Hamilton would be relegated to a bench role or AAA. Despite his .705 career ops vs left handed pitching, that trend has been upward in recent years and he brings gold glove D and significant power to the reds. A definite upgrade to the outfield over Hamilton.
    And yet, Jones' issues with hitting lefties are the same issues causing you to snub your nose at Choo. He's very expensive, doesn't have any OBP skills, and would cost- in your estimation- an ace-level starter to acquire. Pass.

    Let's go to kemp. His career ops v. Left handed pitching is .976. That's elite level. He also brings elite level defense and great speed. There is an injury history there but I'm talking about a deal involving cueto do the dodgers would have an injury risk as well. He'd be a definite upgrade to the out to everyone with the exception of Bruce and that could be argueable.
    "Definite". Hmn. Apparently, if Cueto was injured on and off last year, he's a "maybe", but a similarly injured Kemp is a "definite". His defense isn't anything resembling "elite". He's owed 128 MILLION DOLLARS to be paid out until he's 34 years old.

    Lastly there is Bautista. The guy who I have most advocated the reds trade for recently. His ops numbers vs lefties are (.910 (career) .877. To top that off he is also a tremendous power threat and that threat would be accentuated by 81 games in GABP furthermore he can play LF and 3b two positions of possible upgrade for the reds.
    Bautista cannot play 3B. Just wipe that consideration from your brain. He's owed 28 million dollars over the next two years for sure. His power has declined severely since his career years of 2010 and 2011. This is a guy you throw a couple decent prospects at- maybe. This is not a guy you throw a Cueto at.

    So concluding, my goal is to improve the reds offense as a unit not to crush left handed pitching. And secondly you cherry picked the worst players I mentioned against left handed pitching instead of using the main players I've been promoting. Namely in the order of Bautista kemp and jones.
    Those are all terrible targets for trade involving Cueto. Every one of them. Top-level Starting Pitchers don't come around every day. You don't flip one of them for the kind of stuff you're talking about.
    Last edited by SteelSD; 11-10-2013 at 05:12 PM.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Call it what you want--exploit, use, get the most out of. By his late 20's that speed will be a greatly attenuated tool. The x-factor is his bat. Smart people make lots of money predicting a guy's hitting ability.

    I'm one who believes there's probably not a ton to be learned from facing the Greg Reynoldses of the world in AAA. Test the bat at MLB. The belief that guys need more time in AAA is based on counterfactuals, not science. Get that speed in the lineup in the eight hole if you must.
    I'm not against starting him in the bigs. I'm just not into any role that cuts his at bats in half, drags out the development, and leaves us with a twenty five year old pinch running extraordinaire.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    So a guy who "plateaus" at a sub-3.00 ERA in a hitter's park is to be discounted exactly why?

    If Cueto retired today, he'd finish with the lowest career Starter's ERA Reds fans have seen since Mario Soto and Jose Rijo.

    And what the Reds get for that is to have him included as only a piece of a trade for either aging or expensive (or both) outfielders?

    No.
    Did the reds have one of the top starting staffs in the majors without cueto in it the majority of the time in 2013? Yes

    Do they have a guy in chapman who can fill his spot in the rotation who has plus stuff? Yes

    Does bailey have a better chance of bring healthy in 2014 than cueto and by keeping him allow the reds a further chance to resign him or benefit from his production and a first round pick than they would an oft injured cueto? IMO yes.

    Does cueto still have value in a trade? In my opinion yes and it seems that in your opinion he has more than I suggest.

    Do the reds have a potential ace in the hole in Stephenson who had the potential to be better than any starter we have nkw? Yes

    So it looks like a position of depth for the reds is starting pitching. And if you want to take the Rijo route I'm sure there are plenty of fans who would have traded him for something before his injury that derailed his career in the 90s if the writing in the wall was there like with cueto.

    Given the facts that the reds rotation can survive and prosper without him, that bailey is more than likely to be healthy and he comes with a draft luck if he leaves (and he's the other viable trade option in the rotation), the fact that chapman could slide into his place, that Stephenson is an ace in the hole, that cueto has a recent track record of injuries, and that there are a few pitchers with track records of success that could be signed to incentive lainden depth type contracts if you don't like the reds current options are the reasons that I'd consider trading cueto for offensive help.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Not having Cueto last season hurt the Reds more than most fans realized.

    Cingrani did fine job filling in, but he didn't give the team the innings that Cueto would have, and that lead to more innings for the pen, which lead or some games lost by an overworked pen.

    It also killed the Reds plans in the post season. A healthy Cueto with a full season behind him would have made a big difference in the wild card game.

    Reds need a true #1 starter, something they missed last season. If Cueto is healthy, they need to keep him.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    I haven't "cherry-picked" anything. Those were your targets and you were the one who brought up "platoon" regarding Choo. Yet, you hadn't considered the splits for some of your targets, which (surprise) were actually worse than Choo's.



    Of course you're not considering Choo. You've never considered him because you have it in your head that he's expensive, somehow blocking Hamilton, and that the Reds need hitters who can school left-handed pitching. Yet, we look at your targets and see that some of those hitters not only have worse splits than does Choo, but who are also expensive while a guy like Choo isn't actually blocking anything and wouldn't take player resources to acquire. Resources like top-notch affordable starting pitchers.



    Bautista isn't worth targeting if Cueto is involved, so why not Rasmus on his own? Keep in mind that he's arbitration-eligible, FA-eligible in 2015, is one-season removed from a sub-.700 OPS, and can't hit lefties at all. So there are warts...

    Either are players you throw minor-league chaff at; not top-of-rotation SP's.



    And yet, Jones' issues with hitting lefties are the same issues causing you to snub your nose at Choo. He's very expensive, doesn't have any OBP skills, and would cost- in your estimation- an ace-level starter to acquire. Pass.



    "Definite". Hmn. Apparently, if Cueto was injured on and off last year, he's a "maybe", but a similarly injured Kemp is a "definite". His defense isn't anything resembling "elite". He's owed 128 MILLION DOLLARS to be paid out until he's 34 years old.



    Bautista cannot play 3B. Just wipe that consideration from your brain. He's owed 28 million dollars over the next two years for sure. His power has declined severely since his career years of 2010 and 2011. This is a guy you throw a couple decent prospects at- maybe. This is not a guy you throw a Cueto at.



    Those are all terrible targets for trade involving Cueto. Every one of them. Top-level Starting Pitchers don't come around every day. You don't flip one of them for the kind of stuff you're talking about.
    You have no arguement. You took the three worst players versus left handed pitching I mentioned in order to create your arguement. I've been advocating a trade for Bautista all over RZ. And yes he has played 3b most significantly 126 games for the 2007 pirates according to baseball reference. That alone is more games than choo had played in center prior to 2013 in CF so there is a precedent for such a position change within the reds organization as well as a history if playing that position unlike in Choos case. But more or less you picked choo, a guy I've explicitly said that'd I'd design my team around the assumption he'd not return, Rasmus, a guy I said I'd not want unless he was included with Bautista , and jones, who while he'd improve the offense, would be my last option.

    The guys I've truely advocated the reds acquiring are Bautista, Kemp, and lastly Adam Jones. Bautista is elite, kemp is elite and jones is an all star caliber player. A pitcher who has ace potential if he can stay on the field is worth elite and all star talent IMO because the reds have pitching depth and Latos who is often classified as an ace and still improving, bailey who might be a tick below and ace but is still improving, Cingrani who put up excellent numbers in his rookie year, leake, a consistent innings ester who was the best pitcher on the reds for a large part of the year, chapman who has electric stuff possibly coming in, and Stephenson in the wings who may very well end up being better than them all.

    The reds have the pitching depth to make such a move and could sign more if you don't like what they have in house. A guy who's ability isn't questioned but his health is for a potential elite level hitter? I'd take that.

  15. #747
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Did the reds have one of the top starting staffs in the majors without cueto in it the majority of the time in 2013? Yes
    And the Reds just lost 200 Innings from that rotation (Arroyo). The Reds did a great job covering for Cueto's absence. Don't mistake that for evidence that more- not less- high-level starting pitching is needed for 2014.

    Do they have a guy in chapman who can fill his spot in the rotation who has plus stuff? Yes
    You don't actually know if Chapman can cover any amount of Innings in the rotation. Neither do the Reds. They know they might want him to, but that's about it.

    Does bailey have a better chance of bring healthy in 2014 than cueto and by keeping him allow the reds a further chance to resign him or benefit from his production and a first round pick than they would an oft injured cueto? IMO yes.
    Bailey is also the pitcher most likely to be dealt in 2014 given his contract situation. I'd suggest that it's unlikely he re-signs with the Reds and, if you deal Cueto now, you're in a bad situation. As far as the rest of it? You have no idea whether Bailey will be healthy or not in 2014 or during any season going forward.

    Does cueto still have value in a trade? In my opinion yes and it seems that in your opinion he has more than I suggest.
    Well, you got that one right.

    Do the reds have a potential ace in the hole in Stephenson who had the potential to be better than any starter we have nkw? Yes
    You mean the guy who was having a really hard time finding home plate in AA ball last year? Please. Although there are things to like, he's some time away from projecting anything like what you're discussing. And if he is, it likely won't be soon.

    So it looks like a position of depth for the reds is starting pitching. And if you want to take the Rijo route I'm sure there are plenty of fans who would have traded him for something before his injury that derailed his career in the 90s if the writing in the wall was there like with cueto.
    Quite a crystal ball you have there. By the time Rijo tragically blew out his arm, he put up over 1,383 Innings of fabulous ball and won a World Series MVP. Did you want to trade him before that, shortly after that series, or the very Inning before his arm went blammo?

    I'll advocate trading anyone for the right return value. Problem is that you've made very poor choices in whom to target when using a commodity as valuable as a high-level Starting Pitcher. There are no magic beans there.

    Given the facts that the reds rotation can survive and prosper without him, that bailey is more than likely to be healthy and he comes with a draft luck if he leaves (and he's the other viable trade option in the rotation), the fact that chapman could slide into his place, that Stephenson is an ace in the hole, that cueto has a recent track record of injuries, and that there are a few pitchers with track records of success that could be signed to incentive lainden depth type contracts if you don't like the reds current options are the reasons that I'd consider trading cueto for offensive help.
    You don't have 'facts'. You have conjecture, supposition, and apparently a magical shiny predictive glass sphere.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    He'd be a better defensive SS and 2b than Itzuris was last season.
    I'd have to see it to believe it. Izturis was fine defensively. Don't project his crappy offense to his defense. Who are you, a gold glove voter?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    You have no arguement. You took the three worst players versus left handed pitching I mentioned in order to create your arguement. I've been advocating a trade for Bautista all over RZ. And yes he has played 3b most significantly 126 games for the 2007 pirates according to baseball reference. That alone is more games than choo had played in center prior to 2013 in CF so there is a precedent for such a position change within the reds organization as well as a history if playing that position unlike in Choos case. But more or less you picked choo, a guy I've explicitly said that'd I'd design my team around the assumption he'd not return, Rasmus, a guy I said I'd not want unless he was included with Bautista , and jones, who while he'd improve the offense, would be my last option.
    So your argument for Bautista is to ask him to play a position he hasn't regularly played for six or seven years?

    Y'know who the Blue Jays were playing there last year? A combination of Brett Lawrie and Mark DeRosa; not exactly some David Wright-level superstar combo of players who just kept Bautista from manning the hot corner. He wasn't blocked. He wasn't hurt. He can't play third base and at age 33 isn't going to somehow learn to do it better. He was moved off 3B a long time ago because (like Eddie Encarnacion) he isn't good at it.

    The guys I've truely advocated the reds acquiring are Bautista, Kemp, and lastly Adam Jones. Bautista is elite, kemp is elite and jones is an all star caliber player. A pitcher who has ace potential if he can stay on the field is worth elite and all star talent IMO because the reds have pitching depth and Latos who is often classified as an ace and still improving, bailey who might be a tick below and ace but is still improving, Cingrani who put up excellent numbers in his rookie year, leake, a consistent innings ester who was the best pitcher on the reds for a large part of the year, chapman who has electric stuff possibly coming in, and Stephenson in the wings who may very well end up being better than them all.
    I think you need to define "elite". You haven't actually hit on anyone "elite" yet, except (ironically) Cueto.

    The reds have the pitching depth to make such a move and could sign more if you don't like what they have in house. A guy who's ability isn't questioned but his health is for a potential elite level hitter? I'd take that.
    Then actually find an "elite" hitter. Mike Trout? Yep. Package Cueto. Someone who projects Votto-level numbers? Yep. Package Cueto.

    But not for the wart-ridden guys you're throwing out there.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
    --Ted Williams

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Call it what you want--exploit, use, get the most out of. By his late 20's that speed will be a greatly attenuated tool. The x-factor is his bat. Smart people make lots of money predicting a guy's hitting ability.

    I'm one who believes there's probably not a ton to be learned from facing the Greg Reynoldses of the world in AAA. Test the bat at MLB. The belief that guys need more time in AAA is based on counterfactuals, not science. Get that speed in the lineup in the eight hole if you must.
    Except if he falls flat at AAA, he doesn't cost the major league team games. The team needs more bankable production in CF. It doesn't mean Choo, but it means some one who they could probably figure on a .725 or more OPS. Hamilton could be far below that. If he shows he's not in AAA, then give him a shot. So far, he hasn't shown that.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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