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Thread: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

  1. #751
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Call it what you want--exploit, use, get the most out of. By his late 20's that speed will be a greatly attenuated tool. The x-factor is his bat. Smart people make lots of money predicting a guy's hitting ability.

    I'm one who believes there's probably not a ton to be learned from facing the Greg Reynoldses of the world in AAA. Test the bat at MLB. The belief that guys need more time in AAA is based on counterfactuals, not science. Get that speed in the lineup in the eight hole if you must.
    I agree entirely.

    Hamilton has already shown what a disruptive force he can be against the opposition.

    That's what matters to me. I don't want the Reds to lose that waiting for him to develop into Rickey Henderson in the minor leagues.

    Use him wisely. Don't play him against the very top pitchers immediately. Have another CFer who can play sometimes and show him the ropes.

    But letting Hamilton give away peak speed years to the minor leagues is unwise.

    And I have no doubt the Reds will see it that way. I'm very confident he will be on the team.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Ops
    Jones .732 (career) .705
    Kemp .853 (career) .976
    Bautista .910 (career) .877

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    And the Reds just lost 200 Innings from that rotation (Arroyo). The Reds did a great job covering for Cueto's absence. Don't mistake that for evidence that more- not less- high-level starting pitching is needed for 2014.



    You don't actually know if Chapman can cover any amount of Innings in the rotation. Neither do the Reds. They know they might want him to, but that's about it.



    Bailey is also the pitcher most likely to be dealt in 2014 given his contract situation. I'd suggest that it's unlikely he re-signs with the Reds and, if you deal Cueto now, you're in a bad situation. As far as the rest of it? You have no idea whether Bailey will be healthy or not in 2014 or during any season going forward.



    Well, you got that one right.



    You mean the guy who was having a really hard time finding home plate in AA ball last year? Please. Although there are things to like, he's some time away from projecting anything like what you're discussing. And if he is, it likely won't be soon.



    Quite a crystal ball you have there. By the time Rijo tragically blew out his arm, he put up over 1,383 Innings of fabulous ball and won a World Series MVP. Did you want to trade him before that, shortly after that series, or the very Inning before his arm went blammo?

    I'll advocate trading anyone for the right return value. Problem is that you've made very poor choices in whom to target when using a commodity as valuable as a high-level Starting Pitcher. There are no magic beans there.



    You don't have 'facts'. You have conjecture, supposition, and apparently a magical shiny predictive glass sphere.
    I'm done with this arguement. You've totally misrepresented the players I suggested we acquire and are trying to say I don't have facts. I gave facts on the players that I have suggested the reds explore acquiring. You gave stats for a guy I said I'd not want, a guy I said I'd take in conjunction with another, and a guy who was the fartherest down my list. As far as the reds rotation, Cuetos health issues beg as many questions as any pitcher within the starting 5.

    Secondly you are trying to shift the arguement even farther away from my main point that the reds should try to acquire an upper level top tier right handed bat and include cueto in the deal. You did this by misrepresenting the players I'd like the reds to look into and then even further taking the focus away from my initial statements by trying to point some sort of crystal ball in my direction and act like I'm arrogant enough to think I know what the future holds. The cueto kemp trade would be feasible because of those question marks. Also I'd be fine with Bautista in left but I'd like to take a look at him at third. Trades and other acquisitions are based both on facts and the conjecture that is derived from those facts. Anyway if you'd like to admit what's obvious, that you misrepresented the players I mentioned being primary targets, and now are trying to further stray from the topic at hand to make it less obvious that you misrepresented what I was saying, and actually discuss what you think cueto could fetch or what you'd offer for those players, I'd be more than happy to listen. If you'd like to continue misrepresent what I'm saying and divert the conversation away from the main topic then well I'm done with this conversation.

  5. #753
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    The guys I've truely advocated the reds acquiring are Bautista, Kemp, and lastly Adam Jones. Bautista is elite, kemp is elite and jones is an all star caliber player.
    Kemp was elite. So far, post-shoulder injury Kemp is Chris Heisey with a 20 million a year contract.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I agree entirely.

    Hamilton has already shown what a disruptive force he can be against the opposition.

    That's what matters to me. I don't want the Reds to lose that waiting for him to develop into Rickey Henderson in the minor leagues.

    Use him wisely. Don't play him against the very top pitchers immediately. Have another CFer who can play sometimes and show him the ropes.

    But letting Hamilton give away peak speed years to the minor leagues is unwise.

    And I have no doubt the Reds will see it that way. I'm very confident he will be on the team.
    That plan is great as long as it's working, but what do you do if he is really scuffling at the plate? Do you play him less and pinch run him more? Do you let him work it out? Send him to AAA and waste another option?

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I agree entirely.

    Hamilton has already shown what a disruptive force he can be against the opposition.

    That's what matters to me. I don't want the Reds to lose that waiting for him to develop into Rickey Henderson in the minor leagues.

    Use him wisely. Don't play him against the very top pitchers immediately. Have another CFer who can play sometimes and show him the ropes.

    But letting Hamilton give away peak speed years to the minor leagues is unwise.

    And I have no doubt the Reds will see it that way. I'm very confident he will be on the team.

    Nobody expects him to be Rickey Henderson, but teams have wasted a lot of PAs on guys who run fast and can't get on base. Hamilton was disruptive when the hard part, getting on base, was done for him by somebody else. Unless you want him to be a Pinch Runner, he's not ready. What happens if his OBP is .250 on June 1? Chris Heisey? Acquire a CF and let Hamilton show he's ready. I'd rather have a surplus than a shortage.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Nobody expects him to be Rickey Henderson, but teams have wasted a lot of PAs on guys who run fast and can't get on base. Hamilton was disruptive when the hard part, getting on base, was done for him by somebody else. Unless you want him to be a Pinch Runner, he's not ready. What happens if his OBP is .250 on June 1? Chris Heisey? Acquire a CF and let Hamilton show he's ready. I'd rather have a surplus than a shortage.
    Vince Coleman 1986-.301 OBP, 94 runs scored, 107 SB.

    Elite speed has a short shelf life. Normally I'd agree it'd be best to keep him in the minors, but you have to factor in using that elite speed in the majors while Billy has it.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Nobody expects him to be Rickey Henderson, but teams have wasted a lot of PAs on guys who run fast and can't get on base. Hamilton was disruptive when the hard part, getting on base, was done for him by somebody else. Unless you want him to be a Pinch Runner, he's not ready. What happens if his OBP is .250 on June 1? Chris Heisey? Acquire a CF and let Hamilton show he's ready. I'd rather have a surplus than a shortage.
    The Reds had a TON of guys last year with OB hovering around .300. They won 90 games. I simply don't see a guy with Hamilton's speed OBPing much below .300. BH at a .300 OBP clip > 8 of the 13 bats the Reds carried last season. I fail to see the problem. Just make sure LF is a whole lot better than last.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The Reds had a TON of guys last year with OB hovering around .300. They won 90 games. I simply don't see a guy with Hamilton's speed OBPing much below .300. BH at a .300 OBP clip > 8 of the 13 bats the Reds carried last season. I fail to see the problem. Just make sure LF is a whole lot better than last.
    Was only .308 in AAA. How did that happen? Major league pitchers are better than AAA pitchers. Adjusting down for that leaves you where?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The Reds had a TON of guys last year with OB hovering around .300. They won 90 games. I simply don't see a guy with Hamilton's speed OBPing much below .300. BH at a .300 OBP clip > 8 of the 13 bats the Reds carried last season. I fail to see the problem. Just make sure LF is a whole lot better than last.
    The hope is that Ludwick will be much better next year than LF was in 2013.

    I hope they are right.

    The problem with relying upon Hamilton expected OBA of .300 is that he's replacing an OBA >.400.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Was only .308 in AAA. How did that happen? Major league pitchers are better than AAA pitchers. Adjusting down for that leaves you where?
    Hamilton's OBP was .330 the second half of the season. One reason why it was so low in the first half of the season was likely because the Reds wanted him to focus on developing his bunting skills, which were weak at the beginning do the season.

    One thing to remember about minor league numbers, teams don't care about them. They are concerned only with the player'sdevelopment.

    A players raw numbers in the minors don't always correlate with how he will perform in the majors. A perfect example was Shelby Miller. He got crushed at the beginning of his AAA season in 2012, but figured out what he was doing wrong, made adjustments and did well at the end of the 2012 AAA season. His overall numbers were still bad, but he had developed into a better pitcher. He did okay in majors the next season.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    The hope is that Ludwick will be much better next year than LF was in 2013.

    I hope they are right.

    The problem with relying upon Hamilton expected OBA of .300 is that he's replacing an OBA >.400.
    He's also replacing a -15.3 UZR, and a below average baserunner. if he plays CF. No way he's as good as Choo was overall for the Reds, but the difference won't be as big overall as some are expecting.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    But letting Hamilton give away peak speed years to the minor leagues is unwise.
    Agreed. I don't want to see any more than his current 395 MiLB SB.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    The hope is that Ludwick will be much better next year than LF was in 2013.

    I hope they are right.

    The problem with relying upon Hamilton expected OBA of .300 is that he's replacing an OBA >.400.
    True, but they were an even better team in 2012 with Stubbs' crummy OBP. Ideally it'd b Hamilton in CF with Choo in left, but that's just not going to happen because the FO gambled on Ludwick. That's neither Choo's nor Hamilton's fault.

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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Ops
    Jones .732 (career) .705
    Kemp .853 (career) .976
    Bautista .910 (career) .877

    I'm done with this arguement. You've totally misrepresented the players I suggested we acquire and are trying to say I don't have facts. I gave facts on the players that I have suggested the reds explore acquiring. You gave stats for a guy I said I'd not want, a guy I said I'd take in conjunction with another, and a guy who was the fartherest down my list. As far as the reds rotation, Cuetos health issues beg as many questions as any pitcher within the starting 5.

    Secondly you are trying to shift the arguement even farther away from my main point that the reds should try to acquire an upper level top tier right handed bat and include cueto in the deal. You did this by misrepresenting the players I'd like the reds to look into and then even further taking the focus away from my initial statements by trying to point some sort of crystal ball in my direction and act like I'm arrogant enough to think I know what the future holds. The cueto kemp trade would be feasible because of those question marks. Also I'd be fine with Bautista in left but I'd like to take a look at him at third. Trades and other acquisitions are based both on facts and the conjecture that is derived from those facts. Anyway if you'd like to admit what's obvious, that you misrepresented the players I mentioned being primary targets, and now are trying to further stray from the topic at hand to make it less obvious that you misrepresented what I was saying, and actually discuss what you think cueto could fetch or what you'd offer for those players, I'd be more than happy to listen. If you'd like to continue misrepresent what I'm saying and divert the conversation away from the main topic then well I'm done with this conversation.
    No one has misrepresented anything. You've claimed a number of things during this conversation that are untrue (the "elite" hitter claim, Bautista being a realistic 3B option) or unrealistic (your extremely low opinion of Cueto's potential market value). The respective players' histories speak for themselves. At this point, we know who these guys are and can project who they'll be. None of your targets project what you're claiming at a price that's even remotely reasonable.

    You've also been completely inconsistent with reasoning. Cueto's apparently destined for injury but all your preferred targets and replacements are either good risks or certain to perform at the MLB level. You've cited Choo's LH splits, age, and expected price tag as reasons not to go after him but then targeting players with even worse LH splits (Jones, Rasmus) amongst other warts, an older expensive guy on the decline who cannot play 3B (Bautista), and a truly terrible contract (Kemp). You've also completely ignored the fact that going after a guy like Choo costs exactly zero player resources; something worth potentially tens of millions of dollars given what Wins currently cost.

    Feel free to be done with whatever you like.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch thatís over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.Ē
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    No one has misrepresented anything. You've claimed a number of things during this conversation that are untrue (the "elite" hitter claim, Bautista being a realistic 3B option) or unrealistic (your extremely low opinion of Cueto's potential market value). The respective players' histories speak for themselves. At this point, we know who these guys are and can project who they'll be. None of your targets project what you're claiming at a price that's even remotely reasonable.

    You've also been completely inconsistent with reasoning. Cueto's apparently destined for injury but all your preferred targets and replacements are either good risks or certain to perform at the MLB level. You've cited Choo's LH splits, age, and expected price tag as reasons not to go after him but then targeting players with even worse LH splits (Jones, Rasmus) amongst other warts, an older expensive guy on the decline who cannot play 3B (Bautista), and a truly terrible contract (Kemp). You've also completely ignored the fact that going after a guy like Choo costs exactly zero player resources; something worth potentially tens of millions of dollars given what Wins currently cost.

    Feel free to be done with whatever you like.
    I never said cueto was destined for injury. He is injury prone but performs at an elite level when healthy. Much like kemp. It'd be an equal risk trade for both sides. Bautista playing this would be about as a defensive detriment as choo in center. Bautista actually has more experience at third than choo did at center coming into the year. Would I have to put him at third? No but it's be worth a look though. Cueto for Bautista straight up? That'd be pretty stupid but in a deal with Phillips for Bautista Rasmus Izturis and maybe a prospect or pen arm, then yeah I think it'd be worth the risk. You get two .800 plus ops bats a starting caliber second baseman and a kicker in a pen arm or prospect. If I remember correctly Rasmus is a FA after this year so that gives Hamilton more time to develop. I've said in other threads I'd like Hamilton in the big leagues but if a big upgrade over him could be had, then I'm ok with him in AAA. Then comes Bautista. He will be around for two years, so no long term commitment. I'd be perfectly fine with him in left. I wouldnt mind giving him a look at third just to see. Izturis could cover second decently. Plus a prospect or a pen arm. That deal seems to shore up the big league club while the prospects in the lower to mid minors make their way up the next few years. In reality, just to grab Bautista, I do not think it'd cost cueto. But to add Rasmus isturis and another player, it'd take more than Phillips. For Bautista I think Phillips a decent prospect say lutz gets it done. I've heard rumblings of Toronto wanting him gone.

    Cueto for kemp would be a high risk/reward proposition for each team. Each guy could get injured or perform at an elite level. Goes both ways. Never said it didn't. Even saying that I'd want the dodgers to eat a good portion of kemps contract.

    Trading cueto would be risky because the injuries may continue or he may bounce back to ace form. I think he has good value on the market but not what it was in 2012.

    I'd love to hear your sans choo ideas to improve the offense. The ones I proposed with cueto are decently fair considering his recent bout with injuries.

    But deals I'd look into that I think you may be more inline with.
    Hanigan for beckham or Joyce
    Bailey for sano
    Phillips and prospects for a legit big league bat.

    I'd love to hear some of your possible suggests but let's keep it interesting. Let's do possible senerio a where choo does not return. I'd love to hear some of your ideas on who are viable targets to acquire.
    Last edited by Old school 1983; 11-11-2013 at 12:50 AM.


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