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Thread: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

  1. #901
    Member joshua's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If they replaced Choo with Stubbs they'd have the same lineup they had in 2012 when they won 97 games.

    Cingrani should be light years better than Arroyo, though he won't give the Reds the same number of innings.

    The real issue is if Ludwick can come back.
    They also got to play the Astros a dozen times in 2012, the Pirates weren't as good and the pitching staff remained almost impossibly healthy throughout the year along with Ludwick. We can't can't count on any of those things for 2014 and won't have a guaranteed 200 IP from Arroyo for our young rotation to lean on.

    Changes have to be made and the offense has to be improved. I also wouldn't mind picking up some bullpen reclamation depth to stash in AAA. The good thing is that there's so many closers on the market we should be able to get another bad ass arm in the pen anyhow.

    Right now this team is worse than last year's team. Yes, the Reds did in fact win 90 games last year. That makes the Reds sound like an elite team, but that's not the case. Four NL teams finished with a better record than the Reds last year. Ten teams in all of baseball finished better. That's a borderline playoff quality team. Now take the second best OBP guy in MLB off that lineup and replace him with Skip Schumacher and how many wins is that same team worth?

    I think if everyone stays healthy and guys like Cozart, Ludwick and Frazier play closer to how they did in 2012 than they did in 2013 then maybe this is a 90 win team again. But that's far from being a sure thing. This team needs to get better. We can't have a lineup that, yet again, leaves Votto trying to do too much because everyone around him is floundering. If we have the worst production in baseball from the #1 and 2 spots in the order again, then we aren't getting the most out of Votto. And when you're paying someone that good that much, it should be the #1 priority every off season.

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  4. #902
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by joshua View Post
    They also got to play the Astros a dozen times in 2012, the Pirates weren't as good and the pitching staff remained almost impossibly healthy throughout the year along with Ludwick. We can't can't count on any of those things for 2014 and won't have a guaranteed 200 IP from Arroyo for our young rotation to lean on.
    People seem to forget how insanely lucky the health of the rotation was in 2012. That does not happen.

  5. #903
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    There is a very good chance Homer won't be a Red in 2015. Leake will be very costly, and Phillips will probably be in a pretty good decline. .
    If you believe this, all the more reason to go for it in 2014.
    Get the draft pick for Homer walking.
    If Leake gets very costly (doubtful), trade him for prospects after 2014.

    Phillips played well last season until he got hit by the pitch. Good chance he can get healthy over the winter and help us for a few more years. In any event, Phillips probably isn't a boat anchor in 2015.

    We sat through a rebuilding process from 2000-2010.. I'm in no hurry to do that again. I want to enjoy making the playoffs while I can, and not panic just because the Pirates beat us in the last game last year.

    No prospects are worth torpedoing our chance to contend in 2014.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  6. #904
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The Reds have a so so chance without making anymore moves. I don't think most people grasp what losing Choo and Arroyo is likely to mean without reliable replacements. This is a wobbly roster right now.
    Last year, the Reds were almost locks to make the playoffs.
    They might have to fight for it this year.
    On the other hand, look at how many games Chapman and Hoover blew last year, especially early in the season. There's some upside there, especially if we have better health in the bullpen.

    Cueto is Arroyo's replacement hopefully. Cueto was basically a nonfactor last year due to health. Sure, we'll miss Choo's 107 runs scored, but we can find someone that will score 85-90 runs to replace him. In theory, about a 3 game differential. Better production out of LF, bullpen can make that up.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  7. #905
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    You keep ignoring Ryan Hanigan and his .365 obp in 2012

    Granted he was not a huge part of the offense, but he was solid in 12. Also, Ludwick had one of his best career seasons and that was before a horrible shoulder injury.

    Like I said in the other thread - If winning 97 games was a forgone conclusion with this team why did Walt trade for Choo in the first place?
    Ryan Hannigan only scored 25 runs and drove in 24 runs in 2012. He was really a negligible part of the offense. His lack of speed/power negated his nice OBP.

    I don't think anyone is saying Choo's loss won't hurt. He will certainly be missed. I just think the debate is on whether the team can recover from Choo's loss or not. I think they can. Others are more pessemistic (Which I can understand, but I think it's overblown).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  8. #906
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by joshua View Post
    They also got to play the Astros a dozen times in 2012, the Pirates weren't as good and the pitching staff remained almost impossibly healthy throughout the year along with Ludwick. We can't can't count on any of those things for 2014 and won't have a guaranteed 200 IP from Arroyo for our young rotation to lean on.

    Changes have to be made and the offense has to be improved. I also wouldn't mind picking up some bullpen reclamation depth to stash in AAA. The good thing is that there's so many closers on the market we should be able to get another bad ass arm in the pen anyhow.

    Right now this team is worse than last year's team. Yes, the Reds did in fact win 90 games last year. That makes the Reds sound like an elite team, but that's not the case. Four NL teams finished with a better record than the Reds last year. Ten teams in all of baseball finished better. That's a borderline playoff quality team. Now take the second best OBP guy in MLB off that lineup and replace him with Skip Schumacher and how many wins is that same team worth?

    I think if everyone stays healthy and guys like Cozart, Ludwick and Frazier play closer to how they did in 2012 than they did in 2013 then maybe this is a 90 win team again. But that's far from being a sure thing. This team needs to get better. We can't have a lineup that, yet again, leaves Votto trying to do too much because everyone around him is floundering. If we have the worst production in baseball from the #1 and 2 spots in the order again, then we aren't getting the most out of Votto. And when you're paying someone that good that much, it should be the #1 priority every off season.
    More things happen during a baseball season that you can't predict than those that you can predict.

    In 2012 the rotation was healthy, but Leake had a terrible year, and Stubbs was a disaster in the leadoff spot, Ludwick played over his head, but Votto was injured, missing six weeks and playing without power the rest of the year. If I had told you in 2012 the Reds would lose Votto for six weeks and when he came back he would have almost no power, would you expect them to win 97 games? It wasn't all good luck for the Reds.

    In 2013 Cueto and Ludwck and Marshall got hurt, but Choo was added and he was incredibly productive. Cingrani came from nowhere to be a dominant starter and Parra developed into a a great lefty setup guy. It wasn't all bad luck for the Reds in 2013.

    The point is every team has good luck and bad luck, good surprises and bad surprises throughout every season. That's the only thing you can count on.

    The best way to project a team's performance in an up coming season is to evaluate the talent they currently have. You absolutely cannot use the previous year'a record as a guide, because every seaons has it's own surprises. My point in bringing up 2012, is not to say that the Reds will play the same in 2014 as they did in 2012. It's to point out that if used the same method of projection of simply taking last year's recorded to project next year's record, we would have projected 100 wins for the Reds in 2013. They were the same team, but with Choo added.

    In 2014, Chapman may become a Cy Young candidate as a starter, Mesoraco could become a legitimate middle of the order hitter, LeCure may become a great closer, Cozart might become a .750 OPS guy, Cingrani could win 20 games. And likewise a bunch of bad surprises are likely to happen too.

    The 2014 Reds as they currently stand are one of the most talented teams in the league. They have the talent to contend and win the division. That's the most accurate projection anyone can make.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  10. #907
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    I'm sure I'll get some flack for it but as the team sets right now, barring injuries, I think they may be better than the 2013 version.

    The Reds are:
    -Choo
    - Arroyo

    But
    +Cueto
    + Marshall
    + Broxton (at some point)
    + a fully healthy Phillips
    + a more experienced Mesoraco with consistent time
    + Ludwick (May not be 2012 version but he'll be better than 2013 LF)
    + better D in CF and electric speed with Hamilton
    + a normalization of Votto's power
    + a better bench with Shumaker

    I understand the concerns and I share them, but I don't think 2014 is as bleak as we are making it out to be, and we are yet to see what Walt does at the winter meetings.

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  12. #908
    Puffy 3:16 Puffy's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    I'm sure I'll get some flack for it but as the team sets right now, barring injuries, I think they may be better than the 2013 version.

    The Reds are:
    -Choo
    - Arroyo

    But
    +Cueto
    + Marshall
    + Broxton (at some point)
    + a fully healthy Phillips
    + a more experienced Mesoraco with consistent time
    + Ludwick (May not be 2012 version but he'll be better than 2013 LF)
    + better D in CF and electric speed with Hamilton
    + a normalization of Votto's power
    + a better bench with Shumaker

    I understand the concerns and I share them, but I don't think 2014 is as bleak as we are making it out to be, and we are yet to see what Walt does at the winter meetings.
    Let me just add that losing Choo will hurt. However if Billy Hamilton plays everyday in CF, bats lead off and gets, let's say 670 plate appearances and gets on base 200 times (that is a .299 obp) he scores 95 runs easy. Choo scored 107 last year.

    His speed is otherworldly right now. Use it. Make up those 15 runs elsewhere
    "I came here to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and I'm all out of bubble gum."
    - - Rowdy Roddy Piper

    "It takes a big man to admit when he is wrong. I am not a big man"
    - - Fletch

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  14. #909
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Paul Daugherty says Brandon Phillips is very available

    Quote Originally Posted by Puffy View Post
    Let me just add that losing Choo will hurt. However if Billy Hamilton plays everyday in CF, bats lead off and gets, let's say 670 plate appearances and gets on base 200 times (that is a .299 obp) he scores 95 runs easy. Choo scored 107 last year.

    His speed is otherworldly right now. Use it. Make up those 15 runs elsewhere
    I couldn't agree more. All this talk about trading for someone to man CF until Hamilton is ready is crazy.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

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