It's come full circle in a very short period of time. Stats very rarely lie but your eyes and gut sure do.Originally Posted by dsmith421
It's come full circle in a very short period of time. Stats very rarely lie but your eyes and gut sure do.
Article isn't stolen, it's syndication.
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
On BP.com the article was titled:
"Overthinking it: Dusty Baker and the Modern Manager's Survival Guide"
Saying that batting Cozart second is one of the dumbest decisions a manager can make is simply wrong. Batting Cozart second might be a bad decision, but it's nothing like playing Joey Votto at SS, or bunting with Jay Bruce beHind by 5 runs. Batting Cozart second is a decision a pn average manager makes instead of a saber thinking manager. It's part of that group of decisions he mentioned that affect around 2 wins over the course of a season.
And saying Baker asked Votto to be less productive is arrogant, condescending, insulting and just plain false.
The writer is assuming that any decision he doesn't agree with is an incredibley dumb decisions, one of the dumbest a manager can make. That's why the article is stupid.
I'm guessing that the writer has his feelings hurt by some of Baker's anti-saber comments, and used this petty, mean article as a way to get even. This really is something I'd expect out of a 6th grader.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Of course batting Cozart second is not the dumbest decision a manager could make, but it is one of the dumber decisions that someone who would actually be given the job will make. No one actually given the keys to the managers office is going to play Joey Votto at shortstop or put Devin Mesoraco in center field. There are a few that will do things like hit a batter similar to Cozart second though, and that is just about as bad of an idea that any of the 30 guys with managers office keys are actually going to make.
Homer Bailey (10-08-2013),Razor Shines (10-08-2013),RedEye (10-08-2013),redsrule2500 (10-08-2013),WMR (10-08-2013)
If you read the article the writer is saying that batting Cozart second is dumber than the average bad decision a manager makes. He is saying it's a decision his mother, or someone with zero baseball knowledge would make.
That's the whole point of his article. He's saying that Dusty doesn't just make bad decisions, he make decision that someone who is trying to lose on purpose would make.Baker might be among the best clubhouse leaders of men, at least until whatever influence he has on his players wears off. But in other respects, hiring him is like picking your mother to manage.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
The headline was totally unnecessary. The content of the article was solid. I just don't see the need for a headline that demeans a guy like Dusty Baker. The guy has been a fixture in the game of baseball since before I was born. His teams have won a lot of baseball games and he was a really good player before that. I'm glad the team moved on as I don't think he was right for the Reds anymore. But is too much to ask to not call the guy stupid (even though in the actual article, he says Dusty is not stupid). Not sure if the author is the one who penned that headline or not, but it detracted from an otherwise insightful piece.
Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David
RedlegJake (10-08-2013),Revering4Blue (10-08-2013),westofyou (10-08-2013)
In addition to his execrable decisions, he had the thinnest of epidermis which bristled whenever someone would question his vast reservoir of baseball cliches
If Baker asked Votto to "be aggressive" or "put the ball in play" (which we know he did many times for other players, so it is not much of a stretch) then the author is absolutely on solid ground. I'll agree he is perhaps guilty of speculation -- but I'm not sure if it is any of the other things you accuse him of here.
I agree with the premise that smart will be neutralized but dumb will be manifested because it is leveraged by smart.
It's like pitcher's BABIP. Deviations away from normal in the direction of lower eventually regress back to normal while deviations away from normal in the direction of higher could be sustainable-i.e. a guy isn't major quality or he is hurt or he is done.
Now when you apply that paradigm to a specific individual like Baker, it might not hold true because it's begging the question concerning the stupid quotient of his decisions in total compared to the stupid quotient of some baseline (i.e. it gets foggy in a hurry).
Last edited by jojo; 10-08-2013 at 01:49 PM.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
The author does not refer to his mother. That's part of a quote from Birnbaum. Maybe he exercised poor judgment in including that part of the quote, but those aren't his words.
I don't see how it is even arguable that batting Cozart second is a good decision when you've got other better options available. It's not complicated to give more AB's to your better hitters. Cozart is one of the worst hitters in the NL (as were Willy Taveras and Corey Patterson before him).
Asking Votto to put the ball play or be more aggressive, is not asking Votto to be less productive. That stats are clear that being more aggressive can lead to more production, as it also can lead to less production. It's not a clear solid case at all, at least not according to the numbers.
I produced quotes where the author literally says hiring Dusty Baker to be your manager is like hiring your mother. Here is it's again:
The writer makes good points about generally really dumb decisions hurt you worse than really good decisions help you. But using Baker as evidence of this is simply wrong. Baker's biggest fault is that he goes strictly by the old book, which is pretty standard, boring stuff. Baker doesn't make crazy stupid decisions that make no sense, as the writer accuses him of doing.Baker might be among the best clubhouse leaders of men, at least until whatever influence he has on his players wears off. But in other respects, hiring him is like picking your mother to manage.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
wlf WV (10-10-2013)
Potato - Pota-toe
...
Add enough of those "not very smart" things together and what do you get?
He also kept his "top secret" lineup to himself and felt that it was not anyone else business to discern rationale for his visceral based decisions
If he were managing the Reds in the 70's
sthe line up would be
1) Geronimo CF
2) Woodward SS
After all in the Dr. Seuss book of Dusty's imagination, doesnt the centerfielder hit first and the short stop second
Dont we have to "get them going" so they can be "dealin" big time??
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