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Thread: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

  1. #1
    1st pick 2022 B.B. draft George Foster's Avatar
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    "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    http://deadspin.com/you-cant-neutral...not-1442060717

    origionally published by Baseball Prospectus.


    REALLY GOOD ARTICLE. Below is the jest of the article about Dusty and his decision making concerning line up's etc.


    That brings me to Birnbaum’s point: “You gain more by not being stupid, than you do by being smart. Smart gets neutralized by other smart people. Stupid does not.”
    Not this year...maybe a Wild Card

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    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Well, I can't neutralize the stupidity of that blog. The nicest thing I can say about it is that it is one of the biggest steaming piles of crap I have ever read.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Well, I can't neutralize the stupidity of that blog. The nicest thing I can say about it is that it is one of the biggest steaming piles of crap I have ever read.
    If there is one thing that I can say about baseball prospectus, it is that they aren't stupid.

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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Remember, the website determines the article title, not the writer. I think it would come across a little better with a different name. The name of the article on Baseball Prospectus is "Overthinking It: Dusty Baker and the Modern Manager's Survival Manual." Deadspin obviously wanted to take the quote a little out of context by tying "you can't neutralize stupid" to Baker. The article even states Dusty isn't stupid, but states some things he did were not smart.

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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by scott91575 View Post
    Remember, the website determines the article title, not the writer. I think it would come across a little better with a different name. The name of the article on Baseball Prospectus is "Overthinking It: Dusty Baker and the Modern Manager's Survival Manual." Deadspin obviously wanted to take the quote a little out of context by tying "you can't neutralize stupid" to Baker. The article even states Dusty isn't stupid, but states some things he did were not smart.
    He said he decisions were stupid. Here's the entire quote:

    Dusty Baker isn’t stupid. But I don’t think it’s unfair to say that some things he did weren’t smart. As Birnbaum said at the Sloan Conference, “One of the things that analytics can do really well is filter out the really stupid decisions.”.
    He also said hiring Dusty as your manager is like hiring your mother.

    He claims that Dusty's managerial decisions are the dumbest ones that could be made. That they are the equivalent of having someone with no knowledge of baseball making them. He basically is claiming that they are like batting the pitcher cleanup, or having Corky Miller play SS, or ordering a bunt with two outs, no one on base in a 10-2 game. The decisions that Baker makes that he's complaining about are basically the other side of near 50-50 coin flip, and any decent stat guy knows this.

    He claims that Baker's decisions are much dumber than the decisions an average manager makes. That's bull. Baker's decisions epitomize the decisions of an average manager. He plays strictly by the old book. He doesn't do anything crazy or unpredictable, (which I find to be Baker's biggest fault) and yet this guy is writing like that's all Baker does. That's just plain stupid.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    The writer also makes a huge assumption based on anecdotal evidence - the antithesis of sabremetrical analysis. That is - that stupid decisions cost a team far more wins than the two or three that a smart manager can gain. Yet he offers no analysis or studies that back this up - just his gut. The fact is that the huge amount of random variable action in a baseball game may well mask most "stupid" maneuvers. Quite possible an analysis done by numbers would show little real difference. Then again - it might show a significant negative edge. But if you are such a sabre guy - SHOW US THE NUMBERS!
    No - I am not from State Farm!

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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    The writer also makes a huge assumption based on anecdotal evidence - the antithesis of sabremetrical analysis. That is - that stupid decisions cost a team far more wins than the two or three that a smart manager can gain. Yet he offers no analysis or studies that back this up - just his gut. The fact is that the huge amount of random variable action in a baseball game may well mask most "stupid" maneuvers. Quite possible an analysis done by numbers would show little real difference. Then again - it might show a significant negative edge. But if you are such a sabre guy - SHOW US THE NUMBERS!
    yup --- I kept waiting for his evidence --- but my gut agrees with the opinion - numbers be danged
    The older I get - the better I was

    and yes - I hate the Cardinals (Reds fan since 1958)

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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Remember when it was the "traditional baseball guys" that were dogmatic, condescending, and intellectually dishonest? Looks like they've got company.

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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Yet he offers no analysis or studies that back this up - just his gut.

    "That's where the truth lies, right down here in the gut. Do you know you have more nerve endings in your gut than you have in your head? You can look it up. Now, I know some of you are going to say, "I did look it up, and that's not true." That's 'cause you looked it up in a book. Next time, look it up in your gut. I did. My gut tells me that's how our nervous system works."
    "And why do false truths persist, getting passed down the decades as if they were fact? It comes back to the same point: People believe things that are wrong because, individually, people rarely investigate their own beliefs, particularly when what they believe makes sense intuitively. Even more so when those around them agree with them." -K.F.

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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Sheed View Post
    "That's where the truth lies, right down here in the gut. Do you know you have more nerve endings in your gut than you have in your head? You can look it up. Now, I know some of you are going to say, "I did look it up, and that's not true." That's 'cause you looked it up in a book. Next time, look it up in your gut. I did. My gut tells me that's how our nervous system works."
    Funny is not allowed here.
    HUBBA A man who knows everything,just can't remember it all at one time.

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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Baker was really dealin" he was big time a gastroenteric neurologist

  22. #12
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by Hubba View Post
    Funny is not allowed here.
    I have a great sense of humor, and enjoy laughing more than just about anything else in the world. (just about )

    Deadspin stealing an article from BP, and renaming it "You Can't Neutralize Stupid: Why Dusty Baker Might Not Get Another Job" places the words "stupid" and "Dusty Baker" in the same sentence on purpose. As a weak defense, the supporters of Deadspin's point say that the author said in the body of the article that Dusty wasn't stupid.

    Well, he also said in the title that Dusty was stupid, and especially with a site like Deadspin, sometimes titles are all that some low information folks read.

    I don't think it's funny to kick a person while they're down, after they've been fired, and I'm one that does agree with the decision to fire Dusty Baker. The moniker "Stupid" goes past catharsis.

    Redszone's better than this, is what I think some people are trying to say on this thread, including me. I hope it is. I think it still is. I'm not holier-than-thou, I'm not a prude, or the thread police. This is a great site, and I don't want to see it regress. I've found myself not coming here as often the last few days, waiting for the "catharsis" of blaming everything bad that has happened to the Reds over the last 6 years on Baker. Because it's boring and tiresome.

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    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    My gut is huge. Does that make me the smartest man on the planet? I'd like to think so.
    A summer watching a bad Reds' team, is still a pretty good summer.

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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Raindog View Post
    yup --- I kept waiting for his evidence --- but my gut agrees with the opinion - numbers be danged
    I don't think it takes much to realize that bad decisions by a manager could have much more of an affect than good.

    Give me a job as a manager with the goal of losing 162 games, just based on my decision's - I'm pretty sure I could.

    Give me a job where I try to win 162 games, I wouldn't come close.

    Basically at the end of the season, it would be like a linear optimization problem, based on the players if you made a correct decision every possible time, you would still have a maximum games you could win as a manager, though obviously that's unknown.

  27. #15
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    I actually quite like this quote:

    It’s not a problem when your manager says something like, “On-base percentage is good, but RBIs are better.” That’s just a backwards way of expressing that it’s nice to score runs. But it is a problem when that attitude leads to batting Zack Cozart second or trying to persuade Joey Votto—who’s owed another $218 million over the next 10 years—to be a less productive player. At that point, the attitude is actively hurting the team.
    I think the main problem with that article is the headline from Deadspin. Without that, it would come off a lot less, well, stupid.

    The data behind it, really, is the Birnbaum post, which does actually have evidence and refers to the Sloan Conference.


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