Turn Off Ads?
Page 4 of 7 FirstFirst 1234567 LastLast
Results 46 to 60 of 92

Thread: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

  1. #46
    "So Fla Red"
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    South Florida - The Real Humidor
    Posts
    5,059

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    If you apply strict Game Theory, technically if everyone's doing the smart/conventional thing then the only thing that will give you a competitive advantage is doing something stupid.
    Such as leaving in Latos in Game 5 until he gives up six runs
    Pulling Chapman in Game 3

    Certainly gave the Giants a competitive advantage

  2. Likes:

    WMR (10-09-2013)

  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #47
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,137

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Isn't this mixing RC projection with actual results? We know what the Reds' projected RC/27 was prior to the season, and we can see whether or not they achieved that mark by running their stats afterwards. What that still doesn't account for, though, is what that RC/27 could have been were the lineup better optimized during the season.

    I agree that lineup optimization is a blunt instrument. But is it not still intuitive to give more PA's to your better hitters?
    No, it's mixing actual RC/27 (the theoretical run value of the Reds offense accrued during the season) with the actual team rpg. There's no projection involved. The Reds had an RC/27 of 4.5 and rpg of 4.31.

    You can spend a lot of time optimizing your lineup and not get it more optimal than that.

    FWIW, it is intuitive that giving more PAs to your better hitters will help and perhaps that would have lifted the RC/27 and rpg evenly. Yet lineups tend to be stubborn, counterintuitive things. Lineup optimization is a bit of cryptid.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  5. #48
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    7,939

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    FWIW, it is intuitive that giving more PAs to your better hitters will help and perhaps that would have lifted the RC/27 and rpg evenly. Yet lineups tend to be stubborn, counterintuitive things. Lineup optimization is a bit of cryptid.
    Fair enough. But that's precisely the point, isn't it? We actually don't know what would have happened in that case, because the Reds lineup was so obviously not optimal for such a large chunk of the 2013 season. Yes, there is a lot of noise in all of this. But it stands to reason that, all else being equal, the team is better served by putting its best hitters in position to get more AB's.

    I mean, sure, we could just throw up our hands and say "It's all a crapshoot with this lineup thing, let's just bat Cozart leadoff and be done with it." Except that we do have data that suggests rather strongly that we'd better off at least trying to perfect the order as best we can. You know, control what you can control and then let the chips fall where they may. No?

  6. Likes:

    WMR (10-09-2013)

  7. #49
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,137

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Fair enough. But that's precisely the point, isn't it? We actually don't know what would have happened in that case, because the Reds lineup was so obviously not optimal for such a large chunk of the 2013 season. Yes, there is a lot of noise in all of this. But it stands to reason that, all else being equal, the team is better served by putting its best hitters in position to get more AB's.
    This differs from other "what if?" hypotheticals. For instance, if you were to replace a Darwin Barney type of hitter with someone who's functional at the plate, then your team will score more runs.

    However, lineup optimization clearly isn't quite so linear. For instance, the Reds may have optimized their lineup as much as anybody really can by hitting Choo leadoff, Votto 3rd and Bruce either 5th or 4th. Beyond that, it might just be a navel gazing exercise.

    If you wanted more runs from this team, the answer more likely involves different bodies rather than tweaking which lesser hitter bats up top with Choo/Votto/Bruce.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  8. Likes:

    Chip R (10-09-2013), westofyou (10-09-2013), wlf WV (10-10-2013)

  9. #50
    Member SteelSD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Posts
    9,321

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    No, it's mixing actual RC/27 (the theoretical run value of the Reds offense accrued during the season) with the actual team rpg. There's no projection involved. The Reds had an RC/27 of 4.5 and rpg of 4.31.

    You can spend a lot of time optimizing your lineup and not get it more optimal than that.

    FWIW, it is intuitive that giving more PAs to your better hitters will help and perhaps that would have lifted the RC/27 and rpg evenly. Yet lineups tend to be stubborn, counterintuitive things. Lineup optimization is a bit of cryptid.
    4.50 minus 4.31 = 0.19 RC/27

    0.19 RC/27 *162 = 30.78 Runs

    That's the "non-optimal lineup" shortfall. With an optimal lineup, we could assume additional PA that represent additional RC/27 value.

    If we boost the variance by just 0.08 to 0.25 RC/27 via lineup optimization, we're looking at a ballpark of 40 Runs per season offensively. That's a bunch.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  10. Likes:

    Homer Bailey (10-09-2013), RedEye (10-09-2013), WMR (10-09-2013)

  11. #51
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    9,821

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    4.50 minus 4.31 = 0.19 RC/27

    0.19 RC/27 *162 = 30.78 Runs

    That's the "non-optimal lineup" shortfall. With an optimal lineup, we could assume additional PA that represent additional RC/27 value.

    If we boost the variance by just 0.08 to 0.25 RC/27 via lineup optimization, we're looking at a ballpark of 40 Runs per season offensively. That's a bunch.
    First, the difference between RC/27 and the actual runs a team creates can be explained by numerous other factors, most importantly, the margin of error of RC/27, which actually could explain all of it.

    Second, the point is that the difference between the Reds RC/27 and their actual runs scored is right in line with the rest of the league. Which means that the author is incorrect in accusing Baker of making out lineups that are drastically more stupid than the average managers. He's just as stupid as the average manager.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  12. Likes:

    M2 (10-09-2013), westofyou (10-09-2013), wlf WV (10-10-2013)

  13. #52
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,137

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    4.50 minus 4.31 = 0.19 RC/27

    0.19 RC/27 *162 = 30.78 Runs

    That's the "non-optimal lineup" shortfall. With an optimal lineup, we could assume additional PA that represent additional RC/27 value.

    If we boost the variance by just 0.08 to 0.25 RC/27 via lineup optimization, we're looking at a ballpark of 40 Runs per season offensively. That's a bunch.
    And the average MLB team was 0.23 rpg behind its RC/27. Most teams did worse than the Reds.

    In theory you're right. The problem is year after year teams apply that theory and they get no discernible efficiency from their supposed optimization.

    You touched on the real potential gain, kicking up the RC/27 and dragging the rpg with it. Yet swapping out some Zack Cozart PAs for Xavier Paul isn't going to goose those numbers in any significant way (and I say that as someone who thinks Cozart has no business near the top off a lineup).

    Once you get the big pieces in the right places - or at least in good places - you're about as optimized as you're going to get. After that, more runs really requires upgrading your personnel.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  14. Likes:

    RANDY IN INDY (10-10-2013), wlf WV (10-10-2013)

  15. #53
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Lexington, Kentucky
    Posts
    16,957

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    4.50 minus 4.31 = 0.19 RC/27

    0.19 RC/27 *162 = 30.78 Runs

    That's the "non-optimal lineup" shortfall. With an optimal lineup, we could assume additional PA that represent additional RC/27 value.

    If we boost the variance by just 0.08 to 0.25 RC/27 via lineup optimization, we're looking at a ballpark of 40 Runs per season offensively. That's a bunch.
    Steel post!

    LTNS, buddy.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  16. #54
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    7,939

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    He's just as stupid as the average manager.
    I'd like to see a smart manager for once. This argument that Dusty is "just as stupid" as other managers doesn't have legs. We should expect more.

  17. Likes:

    malcontent (10-10-2013)

  18. #55
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    7,939

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Yet swapping out some Zack Cozart PAs for Xavier Paul isn't going to goose those numbers in any significant way (and I say that as someone who thinks Cozart has no business near the top off a lineup).

    Once you get the big pieces in the right places - or at least in good places - you're about as optimized as you're going to get. After that, more runs really requires upgrading your personnel.
    Xavier Paul has no business at the top of a lineup either, really. Look, I agree that the Reds have a crappy bunch of secondary hitters to choose from. But you've got to use what you have to the best advantage. Having either Cozart or Paul bat second is not ideal. Putting Votto or Bruce there would make more sense.

  19. #56
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    42,224

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Dusty Baker only sac bunted 27 times in his career

  20. #57
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    7,939

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Dusty Baker only sac bunted 27 times in his career
    Must have had smart managers.

  21. #58
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    42,224

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Must have had smart managers.
    Go on..

    Code:
    NATIONAL LEAGUE
    CAREER
    1976-1980
    
    SACRIFICES                      SAC    
    1    Padres                      534   
    2    Giants                      474   
    3    Dodgers                     464   
    4    Astros                      407   
    5    Braves                      382   
    6    Cubs                        374   
    7    Mets                        365   
    8    Reds                        353   
    9    Nationals                   349   
    10   Pirates                     347

  22. #59
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,137

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Xavier Paul has no business at the top of a lineup either, really. Look, I agree that the Reds have a crappy bunch of secondary hitters to choose from. But you've got to use what you have to the best advantage. Having either Cozart or Paul bat second is not ideal. Putting Votto or Bruce there would make more sense.
    Though that's just pushing on the balloon. When you've only got three bats you really like then you've got to make a few sub-optimal choices. And going L-L-L-R-R-R-R-R is a recipe for getting a steady diet of specialist relievers, which is going to reduce that team RC/27.

    Joey Votto is a great answer for "Who would you bat in the X slot?", but as soon as you slot him there, then he's not available for any other slot.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  23. #60
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Posts
    913

    Re: "You can't Neutralize Stupid." an article on Dusty Baker

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Though that's just pushing on the balloon. When you've only got three bats you really like then you've got to make a few sub-optimal choices. And going L-L-L-R-R-R-R-R is a recipe for getting a steady diet of specialist relievers, which is going to reduce that team RC/27.

    Joey Votto is a great answer for "Who would you bat in the X slot?", but as soon as you slot him there, then he's not available for any other slot.
    The fear of the almighty LOOGY!!!!!!


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25