Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 28

Thread: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    814

    Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    *League-average wOBA: .314
    *League-average wRC+: 96

    Reds


    Pirates


    Cardinals


    Braves


    Dodgers
    Last edited by junkhead; 10-09-2013 at 03:02 AM.

  2. #2
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    2,692

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    I think one thing I realized in the past week is that the Reds could stand to be a little more willing to make short term deals around the edges or even dumpster dive some more. The current Reds could stand to make a few deals like the 00s Reds did and pick up a Jeff Keppinger, David Ross, Scott Rolen etc. type.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  3. Likes:

    mdccclxix (10-09-2013)

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    814

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    Red Sox


    Rays


    A's


    Tigers

  5. #4
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Denver
    Posts
    10,850

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    Nicely illustrated.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

  6. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,790

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    These are good comps and dramatically illustrate the issue.

    A few refinements, though.

    The league averages listed above are for both leagues and include pitchers.

    For the NL, the league average (non-pitcher) wOBA was .318. wRC+ was 100.
    For the AL, the league average (non-pitcher) wOBA was .319. wRC+ was 99.

    Also, these averages mix starters and backups and don't distinguish by position. But the chart still demonstrates graphically a big Reds issue last season.

    The numbers also illustrate the problem the Reds had at catcher last season.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-09-2013 at 08:25 AM.

  7. Likes:

    mdccclxix (10-09-2013)

  8. #6
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    The 513
    Posts
    12,645

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    The Reds have massive OBP problems across the board. And really, other than Votto, the Reds have struggled to produce OBP guys from their farm system.
    Championships Matter.
    23 Years and Counting...

  9. Likes:

    mbgrayson (10-09-2013)

  10. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,564

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    The Reds have massive OBP problems across the board. And really, other than Votto, the Reds have struggled to produce OBP guys from their farm system.
    Drafting needs to be looked at in all of this.

  11. Likes:

    mbgrayson (10-09-2013)

  12. #8
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    North Kansas City, Mo
    Posts
    5,860

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    The Reds have massive OBP problems across the board. And really, other than Votto, the Reds have struggled to produce OBP guys from their farm system.
    Yes they have. Is that coaching (especially at the lowest levels where it seems to me the hitting coaches are MORE important than they are at the ML level - where they get to the prospects right away and have the best chance to influence years of muscle memory already ingrained) or is it draft philosophy?

    I'm not really sure if it's a philosophical approach or not but they do seem to love toolsy, slugging type guys over baseball rat/OBP types - and rarely seem to connect the two in one prospect, Votto being the exception. Bruce might be the uber definition of the first type. Hamilton, too, except substitute speed for slugging.

    They rarely seem to target guys with innate plate discipline (preferring the opposite Kevin Franklin type little or no discipline but great raw power). They have been pretty good picking pitchers in the high rounds but the lower rounds of the draft have been a desert for hitting prospects.

    Misses like Gelalich, Rahier and Franklin in higher rounds with hitting prospects, and the dearth of any lower round hitters, makes you wonder if the Reds scouting philosophy per hitters is missing something.

    I'd like to see more guys drafted like Avain Rachal - great innate discipline and eye that gives him a decent chance of developing into something worthwhile - he actually breaks the normal mold of Reds prospects. Not a lot of power yet, fairly raw but the one thing going is a great eye.

    I think you can teach guys like that while the toolsier guys with no discipline? Well, it's true you can't teach tools but you also can't teach discipline and pitch recognition very well. Take some fliers on the tools guys but draft more of the Rachal types, too.

    Gives the coaches guys that can be taught who have a talent ceiling maybe, and guys with high ceilings that are limited only by what they can be taught and learn. Right now it seems the Reds have a lot of prospects that had fairly high ceilings but huge glaring holes in their game that should have been noticed. Extreme lack of discipline, really poor pitch recognition, long loopy swings that generate power but are exploited in the higher levels etc. If they drafted these guys thinking they could fix these issues then they overrated the coaches or underrated the problem.
    No - I am not from State Farm!

  13. Likes:

    *BaseClogger* (10-09-2013), mace (10-09-2013), mbgrayson (10-09-2013), mdccclxix (10-09-2013), Old school 1983 (10-09-2013)

  14. #9
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    1,789

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Yes they have. Is that coaching (especially at the lowest levels where it seems to me the hitting coaches are MORE important than they are at the ML level - where they get to the prospects right away and have the best chance to influence years of muscle memory already ingrained) or is it draft philosophy?

    I'm not really sure if it's a philosophical approach or not but they do seem to love toolsy, slugging type guys over baseball rat/OBP types - and rarely seem to connect the two in one prospect, Votto being the exception. Bruce might be the uber definition of the first type. Hamilton, too, except substitute speed for slugging.

    They rarely seem to target guys with innate plate discipline (preferring the opposite Kevin Franklin type little or no discipline but great raw power). They have been pretty good picking pitchers in the high rounds but the lower rounds of the draft have been a desert for hitting prospects.

    Misses like Gelalich, Rahier and Franklin in higher rounds with hitting prospects, and the dearth of any lower round hitters, makes you wonder if the Reds scouting philosophy per hitters is missing something.

    I'd like to see more guys drafted like Avain Rachal - great innate discipline and eye that gives him a decent chance of developing into something worthwhile - he actually breaks the normal mold of Reds prospects. Not a lot of power yet, fairly raw but the one thing going is a great eye.

    I think you can teach guys like that while the toolsier guys with no discipline? Well, it's true you can't teach tools but you also can't teach discipline and pitch recognition very well. Take some fliers on the tools guys but draft more of the Rachal types, too.

    Gives the coaches guys that can be taught who have a talent ceiling maybe, and guys with high ceilings that are limited only by what they can be taught and learn. Right now it seems the Reds have a lot of prospects that had fairly high ceilings but huge glaring holes in their game that should have been noticed. Extreme lack of discipline, really poor pitch recognition, long loopy swings that generate power but are exploited in the higher levels etc. If they drafted these guys thinking they could fix these issues then they overrated the coaches or underrated the problem.
    I couldn't agree more. It always seems like the reds learn towards toolsy guys, which isn't always a bad thing. But they should look towards players with good pitch recognition and contact/OBP skills like you mentioned. Sometimes it's better to have a guy with one or two tools who know how to use them instead of guys that have 5 tools that can't use them consistently.

  15. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,790

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    The Reds have massive OBP problems across the board. And really, other than Votto, the Reds have struggled to produce OBP guys from their farm system.
    This year, with Choo, the problem at the big league level was less OBP and more SLG. Reds dropped twenty points in SLG since last season, and for a GABP team the slugging and homer numbers were subpar.

    However if Ludwick or a different power hitter is healthy next season, and Choo departs, then OBP may again become the principal need.

    But the charts show the main issue overall is that the team needs more average and above average bats. The top end is good, the lower end is too low.

  16. Likes:

    Old school 1983 (10-09-2013)

  17. #11
    Member klw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    New England
    Posts
    6,510

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    A semantics question: Is the team top heavy or bottom heavy? Shouldn't it be viewed at bottom heavy as more of the players are below average for wRC+ instead of being top or elite contributors?

  18. Likes:

    M2 (10-09-2013), thatcoolguy_22 (10-11-2013)

  19. #12
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,173

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    A semantics question: Is the team top heavy or bottom heavy? Shouldn't it be viewed at bottom heavy as more of the players are below average for wRC+ instead of being top or elite contributors?
    Exactly right. Votto, Choo and Bruce aren't the problem.

    If the Reds really want to improve the situation, then upgrading SS, C and the 3rd OF is where you start.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  20. Likes:

    GullyFoyle (10-09-2013), Revering4Blue (10-09-2013)

  21. #13
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Crown
    Posts
    3,821

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    The OP is the best way I could've explained why I never bought the Reds being the best in this division. I always felt they were far back of the cards and a best tied with the pirates.

  22. #14
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    8,103

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    This also illustrates nicely why the StL lineup is so difficult to face. Fully six of their hitters are way above average.

  23. #15
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    8,103

    Re: Reds' extremely top-heavy line-up

    Byrd sure makes the Pirates look better (albeit a miniscule sample size).


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25