Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

[Benihana]

No more words, it's time to put it to a vote.

The Reds have 3 weeks to decide whether or not to extend a qualifying offer to Bronson Arroyo. Would you?

If he accepts, he returns for a one-year, $14MM contract.
If he declines, the Reds get an extra pick immediately after the first round (likely in the mid-thirties overall).

I believe even if he declines, the Reds could negotiate with him for a 2 or 3 year deal.

I would make the qualifying offer, and hope he declines it. If he accepts, I'm not that sad- I'd then look to trade Bailey or Chapman for a big bat.

[dougdirt]

I wouldn't make it. That is a lot of money to risk for something you don't truly need. While there are bound to be starting pitching injuries, I am not using $14M as insurance against one as the guy who at best should be the 5th or 6th starter on the team when the team really needs to find a way to replace the offense that will leave with Shin-Soo Choo. The Reds will have somewhere around $20-30M to spend depending on exactly how much the arbitration raises are for the eligible guys for 2014. Arroyo, for all that he has done, isn't worth wasting that much money on as a "just in case" plan when this offense will have TWO average or better hitters.

[Bob Sheed]

I would make the qualifying offer, and hope he declines it.

x2

[AmarilloRed]

No.

[cumberlandreds]

I think they should. If he declines you get a draft pick which helps restock your farm system. If he accepts that makes the Reds more flexible to trade someone like Bailey for a really good bat to put into LF,CF or 3rd base. I really think its a no lose situation for the Reds.

[bob jones]

big mistake the kind of m istake the cardinals NEVER make

[bob jones]

overly sentimental about old guys,, how did it work with larkin? griffey?? how about the phillies with Howard, utley and rollins, this is a must avoid manuever, let him go

[BungleBengals]

Tough call. You want the draft pick, but not the contract. I would think that the market would dictate it once it is known who is interested and what not.

Can someone clarify? I read that if we offered 2 yrs for $20M then that still counts as a qualifying offer. Is it $14M overall on the contract or does it have to be $14M a year?

[757690]

With Cueto, Latos and Cingrani all hurt at the end of the year, and Bailey being shopped, the Reds need to sign a back end starter for next year. Arroyo at $14M isn't the best option, but any decent 25-30 start starter is fining to cost around $10M, so it's not the worst either. Still, offer it to him and hope he turns it down.

[REDREAD]

Tough call. You want the draft pick, but not the contract. I would think that the market would dictate it once it is known who is interested and what not.

Can someone clarify? I read that if we offered 2 yrs for $20M then that still counts as a qualifying offer. Is it $14M overall on the contract or does it have to be $14M a year?

The Reds have to offer to take Arroyo to arbitration and the club has to submit an offer of at least a certain threshold. The threshold changes every year but it's approx 14 million now. It's a one year deal. Arroyo could accept and hypothetically counter with 20 million/year in arb, and hypothetically could win and the Reds would be stuck paying it ( I know, not realistic, just saying it could end up that way in theory).

A 2 yr/20 million offer would not could as a qualifying offer, based on my understanding. You have to agree to go to arb with the player. The club has to submit a figure of at least the threshold.

And I make Arroyo a qualifying offer, because I think there's less than a 1% chance he accepts. He wants that multiyear deal, he's certianly not going to accept a one year deal without shopping himself.

[LoganBuck]

With Cueto, Latos and Cingrani all hurt at the end of the year, and Bailey being shopped, the Reds need to sign a back end starter for next year. Arroyo at $14M isn't the best option, but any decent 25-30 start starter is fining to cost around $10M, so it's not the worst either. Still, offer it to him and hope he turns it down.

This, unless you want to dive into the scratch and dent market of the Josh Johnsons of the world.

[BungleBengals]

And I make Arroyo a qualifying offer, because I think there's less than a 1% chance he accepts. He wants that multiyear deal, he's certianly not going to accept a one year deal without shopping himself.

The concern would be that he could get a multiyear deal with another team, but would they want to pay him for 2 maybe 3 years and lose a first or second round pick too? Seems a little high for Bronson Arroyo.

This, unless you want to dive into the scratch and dent market of the Josh Johnsons of the world.

Isn't that where Francisco Liriano came from?

[Crumbley]

overly sentimental about old guys,, how did it work with larkin? griffey?? how about the phillies with Howard, utley and rollins, this is a must avoid manuever, let him go

It's one year.

[medford]

How long does Bronson have to decide? Lets just assume everyone is a proffessional here, if things work out, great, if not oh well, no hard feeling either way from either party. Wouldn't the Reds already know the odds of Bronson accepting arbitration for a 1 year deal? I'm sure the Reds have talked to Bronson and/or his representatives, what are the odds that they know Bronson's decision right now? Bronson has always been a "say like he sees it" kind of guy. Does turning down the offer, aside from garunting him a certain salary for 1 season hurt his free agency at all? If Bronson is set on taking a 2-3 year deal somewhere, could the Reds get assurances that he won't take the offer w/ perhaps a min. 2-3 year deal on the table should he not find the interest he's hoping for on the FA market? I'm sure that falls into the collusion stage, but I'm guessing such deals are discussed behind closed doors and not talked about on a regular basis in all sports.

[MattyHo4Life]

Does turning down the offer, aside from garunting him a certain salary for 1 season hurt his free agency at all?

Teams will most likely offer Arroyo less money or years than they would if they didn't also have to give up a draft pick. That's why I think Arroyo will accept a qualifying offer if he gets one.