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View Poll Results: Would you make a qualifying offer to Bronson Arroyo?

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  • Yes

    68 70.83%
  • No

    28 29.17%
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Thread: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

  1. #31
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    What's the downside to offering? If he accepts, there is an opportunity to move Bailey or Leake. If he declines, take the draft choice and tip your hat.

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  3. #32
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gary Redus View Post
    What's the downside to offering? If he accepts, there is an opportunity to move Bailey or Leake. If he declines, take the draft choice and tip your hat.
    The downside is that you move a better pitcher so you can pay a lesser pitcher a bunch more money. So you hamstring yourself with lesser talent for more money. The Reds need all of the money they can get to address the real problem with this team, which is the crappy offense we will have without Choo, not having pitching insurance at $14M.

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  5. #33
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    Someone will likely offer Arroyo 3 years at $7-8MM per year. That's $21MM guaranteed for 3 years or $14MM guaranteed for 1 year...I think it's likely that he accepts the 1 year deal.
    Actually, Arroyo is going to have his own percieved notion of what he's worth. He's going to decide whether to accept/decline arbitration based on that. He's not going to think he's only going to get 3/$24 million or less.
    He only has 5 days(?) to accept or decline.

    Heck, if all it takes is 3 years at 7-8 million/year, the Reds should sign him for 3 years... I'm pretty sure he will get more. He's likely to get at least what Lohse got.

    Bronson has told the world about 5 times that he's not coming back to Cincy on a one year deal, that he wants a multiyear deal. Not sure how much more of a guarantee that we need that he won't accept.
    This is a safer bet than offering Guzman arb back in 1999..
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  6. #34
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    There is no arbitration. They offer the QO (let's assume it's $14M, as estimated), Arroyo either accepts or declines (and becomes a UFA, with compensation). There is no other scenario.
    ok, sorry about that.. I thought it was arbitration.
    thanks for correcting me.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  7. #35
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    The Reds have to offer to take Arroyo to arbitration and the club has to submit an offer of at least a certain threshold. The threshold changes every year but it's approx 14 million now. It's a one year deal. Arroyo could accept and hypothetically counter with 20 million/year in arb, and hypothetically could win and the Reds would be stuck paying it ( I know, not realistic, just saying it could end up that way in theory).

    A 2 yr/20 million offer would not could as a qualifying offer, based on my understanding. You have to agree to go to arb with the player. The club has to submit a figure of at least the threshold.

    And I make Arroyo a qualifying offer, because I think there's less than a 1% chance he accepts. He wants that multiyear deal, he's certianly not going to accept a one year deal without shopping himself.
    I don't believe arbitration comes into these scenarios anymore. Either the club extends a qualifying offer and he accepts. Now somewhere in there too, we have the ability to negotiate a different contract (even now, I think), but as for the new CBA, it's either a qualifying offer and his decision regarding the draft pick. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but please cite chapter and verse.

    Someone else asked how long Arroyo has to accept. The club has 5 days after the Series to extend the offer, the player has 7 days to accept.

    I voted yes. While that dampens his market slightly (no concern necesarily of the Reds) and I know he is capable of taking the offer, I don't think he does. He wants multiple years and I think he'll get it. I don't know the threshold of clubs that don't lose a draft pick and whether any of those clubs could be in on him, but I think there are some clubs that aren't going to lose any sleep over losing their pick to sign him. There is a risk, but I think it's more likely he declines.

    [re: Arbitration - I see Puff succinctly addressed this as I was typing my answer]
    Last edited by redsmetz; 10-11-2013 at 04:03 PM.
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  8. #36
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The downside is that you move a better pitcher so you can pay a lesser pitcher a bunch more money. So you hamstring yourself with lesser talent for more money. The Reds need all of the money they can get to address the real problem with this team, which is the crappy offense we will have without Choo, not having pitching insurance at $14M.
    If a pitcher isn't moved, where does the ability to address offensive come from? If not offering Arroyo means resigning Choo, then by all means don't offer. Just don't see Arroyo accepting and I'm not sure the Leake is a lesser talent - cheaper yes, better ...

    Given financial realities, I'd take Leake over Bronson but we aren't operating in a vacuum.

  9. #37
    Member MattyHo4Life's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Bronson has told the world about 5 times that he's not coming back to Cincy on a one year deal, that he wants a multiyear deal.
    He probably thinks the Reds won't offer him a QO.

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  11. #38
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gary Redus View Post
    If a pitcher isn't moved, where does the ability to address offensive come from? If not offering Arroyo means resigning Choo, then by all means don't offer. Just don't see Arroyo accepting and I'm not sure the Leake is a lesser talent - cheaper yes, better ...

    Given financial realities, I'd take Leake over Bronson but we aren't operating in a vacuum.
    The difference between Arroyo and Leake is next to nothing. If one is better than the other, it is by an incredibly small margin.

    As far as a pitcher not being moved and still improving, simple: Spend some money. There are places you can upgrade for the projected 2014 lineup right now: Catcher/Shortstop/Third Base/Center Field. Spend some money. Upgrade a spot or two. Or, you could use some of your farm system to make a trade for someone (or use the farm as a toss in to trade someone like Phillips or Chapman).

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  13. #39
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    Yes, only because I believe Arroyo and his agent will think he can get better. Worst case scenario you get stuck with him for a year.

  14. #40
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/414088/qualifying-offers-will-be-worth-$141-million



    Qualifying offers will be worth $14.1 million


    Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the value of this year's one-year qualifying offer for impending free agents will be $14.1 million.

    Qualifying offers were worth $13.3 million last offseason, so this is a jump of $800,000. The figure is determined by the average of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. Teams must make a qualifying offer in order to secure draft pick compensation if a player signs elsewhere in free agency. For what it's worth, nine players received qualifying offers last winter (the first year of the new system) and none of them accepted.


    Source: Joel Sherman on Twitter

  15. #41
    Who, What, Where, When? Tornon's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    I'm not sure Arroyo could turn down a qualifying offer if it were made, knowing that whoever signed him would have to give up a draft pick. Kyle Lohse went through that last year and almost didn't have a team.

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  17. #42
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gary Redus View Post
    What's the downside to offering? If he accepts, there is an opportunity to move Bailey or Leake. If he declines, take the draft choice and tip your hat.
    You act like moving Bailey is a desired result. It's not.

    Not paying Arroyo 14 MM however is a desired result for me.

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  19. #43
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tornon View Post
    I'm not sure Arroyo could turn down a qualifying offer if it were made, knowing that whoever signed him would have to give up a draft pick. Kyle Lohse went through that last year and almost didn't have a team.
    And Lohse was coming off a more successful run and a few years younger.

    The whole "if he accepts you can just shop Bailey scenario" seems nuts. Bailey is light years better than Arroyo and will be at least $5 Million cheaper than Arroyo would be at $14 Million (and Leake would be about $9 Million cheaper, in fact Bailey and Leake combined figure to make about the same as that $14 Million that folks are so willing to hand a lesser guy than either of them in Arroyo).

    If the Reds decide that they don't want to go forward with Bailey in his last year (though a guy like him pitching for a free agent deal sounds good to me on a contender), they don't need to pay Arroyo $14 Million to shop him. It doesn't add options, the extra cash removes them (as in how much money the guy coming back in the deal could make). If they want to move Bailey, they could sign a solid back-end guy for roughly half of that $14 Million that Arroyo will net. The Reds are facing most of the rotation walking in the next couple of years. If they want to spend that kind of money, I'd rather go less per year and get a younger guy for two or three years.

    There is no scenario where Bronson Arroyo making $14 Million for one season benefits the Reds.
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  21. #44
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    You act like moving Bailey is a desired result. It's not.

    Not paying Arroyo 14 MM however is a desired result for me.
    I think the Reds think trading Bailey is a desired result.

    And good news... I'm pretty certain you will never have to pay Bronson Arroyo $14M
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  22. #45
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

    I went with yes, thinking he'll decline.

    Although, I would not fault them if they didn't.


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