Would You Make a Qualifying Offer to Arroyo?

[Kc61]

Here's the drill. Predict BA's best FA offer. If the qualifying offer is still in the running for acceptance, you do not make that qualifying offer. Walt will be doing this certainly.

Just a guess: two years 16-18 million; or possibly three years around 21 million . Too tempting to take the 14, so I don't make the QO.

Make your prediction, the answer follows.

[mth123]

Here's the drill. Predict BA's best FA offer. If the qualifying offer is still in the running for acceptance, you do not make that qualifying offer. Walt will be doing this certainly.

Just a guess: two years 16-18 million; or possibly three years around 21 million . Too tempting to take the 14, so I don't make the QO.

Make your prediction, the answer follows.

You are right in the range where I think Arroyo will end-up if he gets a QO. If no QO, there probably will be more teams bidding and he'll probably get more, maybe 2 for $23 or so with that extra three being an option buy-out for an additional year at $10 Million.

[REDREAD]

Lohse's problem wasn't overpricing himself. He really had a great year. He probably would have been able to get the type of offer that he was looking for if a team didn't have to give up a draft pick. Arroyo is older than Lohse, so 3 year contracts may not even exist for him. 2 years may be the maximum he is offered.

I think a lot of folks here are overvaluing Arroyo. Any offer Arroyo receives regardless if a draft pick is attached to him will probably be less than $10 Mil per year. So $14 million for a single year with a contending team would probably look good to him.

I guess we'll never know for sure.
It's purely my opinion that people overestimate the impact of the "draft pick penalty" attached to free agents.
I know Boras threw a hissy fit about it, but remember, his mission is to fight anything that has the smallest chance of depressing salaries.

[MattyHo4Life]

I guess we'll never know for sure.
It's purely my opinion that people overestimate the impact of the "draft pick penalty" attached to free agents.
I know Boras threw a hissy fit about it, but remember, his mission is to fight anything that has the smallest chance of depressing salaries.

You can't believe anything the reptilian Scott Boras says. If you were a GM, is Bronson Arroyo the type of pitcher at age 37 that you would be willing to give a big 3 year deal AND give up a draft pick to acquire?

[M2]

You can't believe anything the reptilian Scott Boras says. If you were a GM, is Bronson Arroyo the type of pitcher at age 37 that you would be willing to give a big 3 year deal AND give up a draft pick to acquire?

Dependent on my budget, ballpark and pitching situation, sure.

[Norm Chortleton]

I don't think a player can negotiate with other teams during the qualifying offer period. So there is no either/or. I could be wrong.

If this is correct, wouldn't this tip the scales in favor of the Reds offering Arroyo a QO? He only has 7 days to make up his mind and he can't talk to other teams. That early in the process (maximum of 12 days after conclusion of WS), I don't see how any of the FAs could know what their potential value would be.

There would be only 3 outcomes:

1. Arroyo turns down QO and eventually signs with another club = Reds dump his salary and get a pick = very, very good
2. Arroyo turns down QO and does not sign with another club = Reds still dump his salary = very good
3. Arroyo accepts QO = Reds get BA for another year = not the best scenario, but not bad either

[texasdave]

Okay after reading a number of articles online, I believe this is how it works.

The day after the World Series ends marks the beginning of the five-day 'quiet period'. During this 'quiet period' the free agent and team are only allowed to talk to each other. At the end of the five days, the team has to decide whether or not to make a qualifying offer. The team and player can work out a deal during this 'quiet period'. On day six, the free agent can talk to any team. He can gauge the level of interest that other teams might have. Seven days after the qualifying offer is made he has to decide whether or not to accept it. If he accepts it he is signed. If he rejects it the offering team receives compensation.

[REDREAD]

You can't believe anything the reptilian Scott Boras says. If you were a GM, is Bronson Arroyo the type of pitcher at age 37 that you would be willing to give a big 3 year deal AND give up a draft pick to acquire?

Yes, I would give Bronson a contract if I was another GM.
He's a rock, never been on the DL. He profiles as a guy that will age gracefully. If I was a contender and needed a middle of rotation guy, Bronson would be perfect. If I was a rebuilding team, I'd want Bronson to tutor my young players and absorb innings so my bullpen wouldn't be burnt out.

If I was the Cardinals, I probably wouldn't as that team is loaded with pitching now. If the Reds did not have Cingrani now, they would be highly interested in signing Arroyo.

Think about it this way.. Chose a compensation draft pick from last year. Could you trade any of those guys for a pitcher like Arroyo right now?
I don't have the prospect lists in front of me, but my guess is that most of them could not be traded straight up for a guy like Arroyo right now.