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Thread: Qualifying Offers Thread

  1. #76
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    Glad they didn't give Arroyo the offer.

    - With compensation involved, I have a hard time seeing him getting $14 Million for 2 years. I also like the thought some one had that he probably told the Reds he'd accept for sure.

    - Arroyo at $14 Million would have been a budget killer. It wouldn't just mean one year of overpaying Arroyo, it would likely mean being forced to deal other pieces, which are likely more valuable than Arroyo, and dealing from a position that they have to be moved and being forced to take less value for them.

    - For those who wanted to keep Arroyo simply to be able to have the depth to deal Bailey or some one else, why would it be necessary to pay Arroyo $14 Million to do that? Plenty of guys on the market to serve as the back of the rotation for less.

    - The "Arroyo will age well" stuff is misguided. He's already aged well. He pitched 2013 at age 36 and did quite well IMO. Aging well is not the same as going on forever. Arroyo's biggest selling point is the almost automatic addition of 200 competitive innings, but at age 37 it's just not automatic regardless of his past. Honestly, I like Arroyo and have defended him against a lot of critics over the years, but I wouldn't give him 2 years at $7 Million per year to total $14 Million, let alone one year at $14 Million. The Reds need to reallocate those funds elsewhere.

    Being obligated to Arroyo at $14 Million doesn't provide more options for the Reds to make deals. It blows the budget and takes options away, not the least of which is the option to say no when some team makes a below value offer for one of the higher salaries who will be forced off the roster for money reasons if Arroyo is taking up 10 to 13 percent of the total budget. This was absolutely the right call. I love prospects, but adding a sandwich pick just isn't worth the implications and if other players need to be moved to clear money, it may mean moving them for less than they are worth and would more than offset the talent they may acquire with that pick in terms of organizational assets.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  4. #77
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    Nelson Cruz is an interesting case. Age 32, (sort of) big bat but with PED issues.
    I'd think he takes a LT deal at less than $14/m per year if offered. Or he might take the $14 m to try to reestablish his value.

    Kind of surprised he got the QO.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

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  5. #78
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Glad they didn't give Arroyo the offer.

    - With compensation involved, I have a hard time seeing him getting $14 Million for 2 years. I also like the thought some one had that he probably told the Reds he'd accept for sure.

    - Arroyo at $14 Million would have been a budget killer. It wouldn't just mean one year of overpaying Arroyo, it would likely mean being forced to deal other pieces, which are likely more valuable than Arroyo, and dealing from a position that they have to be moved and being forced to take less value for them.

    - For those who wanted to keep Arroyo simply to be able to have the depth to deal Bailey or some one else, why would it be necessary to pay Arroyo $14 Million to do that? Plenty of guys on the market to serve as the back of the rotation for less.

    - The "Arroyo will age well" stuff is misguided. He's already aged well. He pitched 2013 at age 36 and did quite well IMO. Aging well is not the same as going on forever. Arroyo's biggest selling point is the almost automatic addition of 200 competitive innings, but at age 37 it's just not automatic regardless of his past. Honestly, I like Arroyo and have defended him against a lot of critics over the years, but I wouldn't give him 2 years at $7 Million per year to total $14 Million, let alone one year at $14 Million. The Reds need to reallocate those funds elsewhere.

    Being obligated to Arroyo at $14 Million doesn't provide more options for the Reds to make deals. It blows the budget and takes options away, not the least of which is the option to say no when some team makes a below value offer for one of the higher salaries who will be forced off the roster for money reasons if Arroyo is taking up 10 to 13 percent of the total budget. This was absolutely the right call. I love prospects, but adding a sandwich pick just isn't worth the implications and if other players need to be moved to clear money, it may mean moving them for less than they are worth and would more than offset the talent they may acquire with that pick in terms of organizational assets.
    The Rays had too many high priced starting pitchers last year, and needed to trade one. They were able to get the top prospect in all of baseball for one of their starting pitchers with a big long term deal that the Rays couldn't afford.

    The Rangers couldn't afford Teixeira, and everyone knew they had to trade him, and they got half of their current team for him.

    Milton Bradely was a clubhouse cancer everywhere he went, throwing tandrums and forcing teams to get rid of him. And yet, even though everyone knew the team he was one had to trade him, he was traded for Franklin Gutierrez and again for Andre Ethier.

    The most dominant force in determining a players trade value is the value of that player itself to the acquiring team. If more than one teams wants a player, there will be bidding war, and none of the teams wanting that player will give a rat's behind to why he's being traded. They just want him, and will make sure to out bid any other team that wants him.

    Having Arroyo with a big one year contract doesn't make it harder to trade other Reds in any meaningful way.

    I do agree that the Reds felt that they could get similar production from other free agent pitchers for less than $14M for one year. That probably was the driving force behind their decision.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  7. #79
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The Rays had too many high priced starting pitchers last year, and needed to trade one. They were able to get the top prospect in all of baseball for one of their starting pitchers with a big long term deal that the Rays couldn't afford.

    The Rangers couldn't afford Teixeira, and everyone knew they had to trade him, and they got half of their current team for him.

    Milton Bradely was a clubhouse cancer everywhere he went, throwing tandrums and forcing teams to get rid of him. And yet, even though everyone knew the team he was one had to trade him, he was traded for Franklin Gutierrez and again for Andre Ethier.

    The most dominant force in determining a players trade value is the value of that player itself to the acquiring team. If more than one teams wants a player, there will be bidding war, and none of the teams wanting that player will give a rat's behind to why he's being traded. They just want him, and will make sure to out bid any other team that wants him.

    Having Arroyo with a big one year contract doesn't make it harder to trade other Reds in any meaningful way.

    I do agree that the Reds felt that they could get similar production from other free agent pitchers for less than $14M for one year. That probably was the driving force behind their decision.
    The Rays had the opportunity due to their depth to make the deal they made. They had plenty of other money leaving the roster (BJ money pit for one). They got the deal they did because they could have kept Shields if they didn't get what they want. Shields also had a unique deal where he was under control for 2 years with team having the option of cutting him loose after one with no obligation should he get hurt or go south. His value was completely different. The Rangers weren't forced to deal Tex, the Braves just made a bad deal. Bradley's situation was not a have to, but a want to. Those teams could all hold out and keep those players.

    Arroyo, at $14 Million, would put the Reds up over $120 Million without really addressing any of there needs. The Reds really wouldn't be able to hold out. One way or the other, money would absolutely have to be moved. If, Homer Bailey is worth three legit prospects, IMO, he'd only net 2 and a minor league filler if teams knew that the Reds had no choice but to move him. So, that sandwich pick becomes the 3rd prospect, but the Reds go through 2014 with a lesser arm in the rotation and the possibility that the sandwich pick ends up as Jeff Gelalich instead of Jesse Winker. If they want to deal Bailey, deal form a position of strength and that means that they have the option to keep him. They can always backfill for a lot less than $14 Million if they find a deal they like.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  9. #80
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    What have the Romans ever done for us? I think I understand what you mean, though.
    I had re-read what I wrote, said whaaat, but I was on my phone and it was late and I didn't want to re-do it to make sense So I left it as a monument to raw internet spewing.

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  10. #81
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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    Regardless what anyone thinks of these moves, they are done and likely the Reds have lost a rotation mainstay over many years; and one of their three best hitters.

    IMO on the pitching side the Reds may still be in good shape. Arguable, but there's a good shot.

    IMO on the position player side the Reds are not in quite such good shape. They need additions of good players.

    Simply putting Hamilton in CF and going with the same ballclub IMO is obviously insufficient.

    By my count, the Reds have not added a single major league player (not counting some minor league contracts) from the outside in about ten months. How they go about doing this, their approach, their budget, trades, all this will be quite interesting and give us some idea what to expect going forward.

  11. #82
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    I'm on the fence about the lack of offer for Arroyo. I can see both sides and am not too upset. However, I'd still love to have Arroyo back. Doing 2 years at $10M/yr with a third option and buyout at $4M would give the Reds a LOT of flexibility going forward with the rotation.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

  12. #83
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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    Stephen Drew won't accept the qualifying offer from the Red Sox:

    GM:"Forget Stephen Drew accepting the $14M. Scott(Boras) already has set up a number of meetings on Drew for Tuesday at the GM meetings."

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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...nclick_check=1


    The Reds didn’t offer Arroyo a qualifying offer, it was suggested, out of fear he would have taken it.

    Would he?

    “I enjoy playing for that organization and with those guys, so yeah, I probably would have taken it,” Arroyo said, noting he’d use the entire five days to see what was out there, but wouldn’t expect it to be better than the one-year, $14.1 million deal.

    As it is, Arroyo suspects his career as a Red is over. The team asked him about a new deal with deferred money, something he’s done before, but isn’t interested in doing this time. He’ll still be paid by the Reds for the next seven years, he noted, but as a free agent, he wants his next contract to pay him the full amount each season.

    “I would love to retire in that uni, given everything being equal,” Arroyo said. “If every team in the league (offered) me a two-year deal (at $12 million per), I’d take Cincinnati in a heartbeat. I wouldn’t have to move my stuff out of my apartment, I get to hang out with the people I love being around – it’s a win-win. But I don’t think that’s the world we’re in.”

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  15. #85
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    So is today the day we hear whether Choo accepts or refuses?

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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/1...ing-offer.html


    Representatives for Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz have informed the club that he will not accept the qualifying offer, a source tells Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram (via Twitter). Cruz had until 4pm CT to make a decision, but it sounds like he won't be taking things to the wire. The rejection of the QO was widely expected.

  17. #87
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    I would peg Bronson as getting about a 3 year deal in the $20-$30 million dollar range. Good pitching isn't as hard to come by as it was a few years ago, but there are still a lot of teams who could use a consistently good 200 innings guy in their rotation. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels, Mariners, Phillies, Mets, and Giants in the bigger markets could use him. The Rockies, Twins, and Brewers could use an upgrade over the crap they sent out to the mound last year.
    This is about what I think he'll get given that the team signing doesn't have to forfeit signing bonus money. I'm not sure he would have received half of that if a team had to mortgage its future to sign him.
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

  18. #88
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    Nelson Cruz was vastly underrated as a minor leaguer, and he's about to become vastly overrated as a first time free agent who will be 34 for much of next season. I don't care how scarce right handed power is. Who in their right mind wants to pay $14 million plus guaranteed per year for a guy who makes a ton of outs in the batters box and has poor mobility in the OF?
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    Nelson Cruz was vastly underrated as a minor leaguer, and he's about to become vastly overrated as a first time free agent who will be 34 for much of next season. I don't care how scarce right handed power is. Who in their right mind wants to pay $14 million plus guaranteed per year for a guy who makes a ton of outs in the batters box and has poor mobility in the OF?
    He'd be a big upgrade in the Reds lineup, and he'd enable Walt to move Joey to the 2nd spot in the lineup. I'm really ok with giving him 2-28 with a option for the third year.

  21. #90
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    Re: Qualifying Offers Thread

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

    Qualifying Offer Decisions
    By Tim Dierkes [November 11 at 12:21pm CST]
    13 free agents received qualifying offers a week ago, and I think they are all likely to decline by today's 4pm central time deadline. If these players sign Major League deals elsewhere, their old teams stand to gain a draft pick in each instance. The latest:

    Catcher Brian McCann will decline his qualifying offer from the Braves today, tweets MLB.com's Mark Bowman. This was an easy choice for McCann, who has a good chance at a five-year contract.
    Right fielder Nelson Cruz informed the Rangers he will decline his qualifying offer, tweeted Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram earlier today.


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