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Thread: 40 Man Roster - 2014

  1. #31
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Backup outfielders and platoon catchers are so volatile I just can't be so sure I can find the right upgrade from a list of non free agents and old vets. Free agency is volatile too but if I want to upgrade I look to the best fa available
    The list includes free agents, non-free agents, old vets, young vets, and others.

    There are simply many catchers who hit better than the Reds' guys this past year.

    If the Front Office wants to improve that position, as it should, there are plenty of guys to choose from, including a number of free agents.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-16-2013 at 10:41 PM.

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  3. #32
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by PepperJack View Post
    Of that list, who are the 100% adds? LaMarre, Sharky, and Barnhart. I think for sure. But are there others that are definite adds?


    Thanks for the list BTW.
    I could see a bad team taking a flyer on a guy like Drew Hayes and stashing him in their bullpen for the year (Think Astros or Marlins)

  4. #33
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I think there are many, many outfielders who would be an improvement over Heisey on offense. Because his BB/K rate is so low that it is a major negative.

    Heisey's BB/K rate was .18 this year. The previous year it was .17. These are unacceptably low. It shows that Heisey does not exercise good plate discipline, almost never walks, and strikes out pretty often.

    While I respect Heisey's other skills such as his defense, this low BB/K rate is exactly what the Reds don't need. They need more guys who make contact, take a walk, and hit with consistency.
    Here are the fa center field options, it is thin as usual, unless you want to splurge:
    Rick Ankiel (34)
    Coco Crisp (34) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Rajai Davis (33)
    Jacoby Ellsbury (30)
    Curtis Granderson (33)
    Franklin Gutierrez (31) - $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
    Andres Torres (36)
    Chris Young (30) - $11MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

  5. #34
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Here are the fa center field options, it is thin as usual, unless you want to splurge:
    Rick Ankiel (34)
    Coco Crisp (34) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Rajai Davis (33)
    Jacoby Ellsbury (30)
    Curtis Granderson (33)
    Franklin Gutierrez (31) - $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
    Andres Torres (36)
    Chris Young (30) - $11MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
    Felix Perez or Ryan Lamarre could be the Reds 5th outfielder/backup CF next season, and put up similar overall production to. Heisey. Acrually, DRob could probably do the same. All fir around league minimum.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  6. #35
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The list includes free agents, non-free agents, old vets, young vets, and others.

    There are simply many catchers who hit better than the Reds' guys this past year.

    If the Front Office wants to improve that position, as it should, there are plenty of guys to choose from, including a number of free agents.
    How many on this list of fa catchers are you sure will out produce hanny, who in 2011 was 11th and 2012 was 16th in war for catchers and was regarded for plate discipline?

    Catchers

    Henry Blanco (42)
    John Buck (33)
    Ramon Hernandez (38)
    Brian McCann (30)
    Jose Molina (38)
    Dioner Navarro (30)
    Wil Nieves (36)
    Miguel Olivo (35)
    Brayan Pena (32)
    A.J. Pierzynski (37)
    Humberto Quintero (34)
    Carlos Ruiz (35)
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia (29)
    Kelly Shoppach (34)
    Geovany Soto (31)
    Kurt Suzuki (30) - $8.5MM club option with a $650K buyout
    Yorvit Torrealba (35)

    Where there is power there is swing and miss. Where there is defense there is sub .300 obp. Where there is talent there is old age. Where there is the whole package there is a high price tag, or injury concern. Hannigan is going to be hannigan. If you want to upgrade then trade mez and bring in the surest shot.

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  8. #36
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Felix Perez or Ryan Lamarre could be the Reds 5th outfielder/backup CF next season, and put up similar overall production to. Heisey. Acrually, DRob could probably do the same. All fir around league minimum.
    So, keep Paul instead of Heisey? Are you counting on resigning Choo? Sure, if Choo is back then save money on Heisey.

  9. #37
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    How many on this list of fa catchers are you sure will out produce hanny, who in 2011 was 11th and 2012 was 16th in war for catchers and was regarded for plate discipline?

    Catchers

    Henry Blanco (42)
    John Buck (33)
    Ramon Hernandez (38)
    Brian McCann (30)
    Jose Molina (38)
    Dioner Navarro (30)
    Wil Nieves (36)
    Miguel Olivo (35)
    Brayan Pena (32)
    A.J. Pierzynski (37)
    Humberto Quintero (34)
    Carlos Ruiz (35)
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia (29)
    Kelly Shoppach (34)
    Geovany Soto (31)
    Kurt Suzuki (30) - $8.5MM club option with a $650K buyout
    Yorvit Torrealba (35)

    Where there is power there is swing and miss. Where there is defense there is sub .300 obp. Where there is talent there is old age. Where there is the whole package there is a high price tag, or injury concern. Hannigan is going to be hannigan. If you want to upgrade then trade mez and bring in the surest shot.
    For all the problems everyone on that list has, Hanigan has a big one himself -- it's called .198/.306/.261/.567.

    I'm no apologist for Mesoraco, he didn't hit much and got a better chance last year. Still, the sentiment on the board is to keep him. If the Reds decide to trade him, so be it, as long as they get a good return.

    But if the Reds keep both these catchers they will be taking a huge risk by continuing to use two catchers who hit very poorly in 2013, with an OPS next to last in the NL for their position.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-17-2013 at 12:20 AM.

  10. #38
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Here are the fa center field options, it is thin as usual, unless you want to splurge:
    Rick Ankiel (34)
    Coco Crisp (34) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Rajai Davis (33)
    Jacoby Ellsbury (30)
    Curtis Granderson (33)
    Franklin Gutierrez (31) - $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
    Andres Torres (36)
    Chris Young (30) - $11MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
    There are trades. There are guys who becomes FAs later on when not re-signed. There are corner outfielders who can play some CF. And if they don't sign Choo the Reds may pay more for a CF, who would presumably team with Hamilton and get ample playing time.

    Hopefully the GM is creative and recognizes that he is not stuck with Heisey, his .18 BB/k ratio, and his .694 OPS.

    Sitting still with a third place ballclub is very likely to lead to -- a third place ballclub.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-17-2013 at 12:21 AM.

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  12. #39
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Put me down for a DFA of Hanigan. He made over $2 Million last year and even in a crummy year, guys get raises in arbitration. With Arroyo gone, there is one less guy who wants him as his personal catcher and he's going to be 34 next year. I'd like to see the Reds go big here and go after Salty. Salty for $9 Million versus Hanigan at $3 Million seems like a good way to spend some of the team's payflex. Salty against RHP and lefty killer Mes against LHP. Catcher would be set set and an actual threat every day.

    Heisey is a tougher call, but the Reds need to maximize the war chest to make a run at guys who can really help the team in a bigger role. I'd give his money to whoever ends up being plan A in CF (Hamilton is Plan B at best IMO).

    As far as the 40 man goes, the 6 free agents will be off and Corky Miller will be outrighted. That should leave 36 after the 60 day DL guys are back. DFA Hanigan and Heisey would make it 34. Barnhart and Rogers seem like certain adds. One spot should be left open for Parra who I hope is brought back. That makes it 37. Drew Hayes, Josh Smith and Daniel Renken would seem like the strongest candidates on the list posted earlier. I'm not really a fan of Lamarre at this point, but wouldn't want to lose him. Nick Christiani's spot might be lost. Hayes, Smith and Renken would all be on my keeper list ahead of him. H-Rod doesn't look like a guy who we'd miss either. Greg Reynolds might be a guy that gets cut loose with a prearranged deal for a minor league contract that calls for more than the average minor league deal to make another spot. I'd hope for a couple November deals to thin the ranks a bit. Hopefully they could move guys like Hanigan, Heisey, Soto and the like rather than just losing them.

    Anyone know if Tim Crabbe needs to be protected? He seems like the kind of hard thrower who could take a step forward as a reliever. He seems a little like Sam Lecure prior to his conversion to relief. Seems like he could at least be a cheaper version of Logan Ondrusek. If he needs to be protected, he'd be a must add IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  13. #40
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Hanigan was dinged up all last year. I look for a strong bounce back in 2014.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Hanigan was dinged up all last year. I look for a strong bounce back in 2014.
    Generally, when a player -- particularly a heavily-used catcher -- reaches a certain point, IMO it's not a good bet that they will become healthy and re-gain productivity after injuries strike.

    But obviously it's for the Reds professionals to make that judgment in the case of Hanigan. His hitting has been in decline, but injuries did impact 2013.

    I just hope the Reds don't bank the 2014 team on batting turnarounds from Phillips, Frazier, Cozart, Mesoraco, Hanigan, Heisey, and Hannahan. I think the chances of all that happening are fairly low.

  16. #42
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    There are trades. There are guys who becomes FAs later on when not re-signed. There are corner outfielders who can play some CF. And if they don't sign Choo the Reds may pay more for a CF, who would presumably team with Hamilton and get ample playing time.

    Hopefully the GM is creative and recognizes that he is not stuck with Heisey, his .18 BB/k ratio, and his .694 OPS.

    Sitting still with a third place ballclub is very likely to lead to -- a third place ballclub.
    Heisey had an awful start to the year but he ended up being his normal productive blend of power and defense the rest of the way. He also battled injury, of course. His career OPS is .741 which is hard to replace for what he will make. As a piece in a trade, sure use his value for some return. Other cf options include

    McClouth fa
    DeJesus fa
    Crisp -has option
    Other by trade like Fowler.

    The trade route is expensive, or was last year.

    In my view Heisey is a decently rare combo of speed, defense and power, and heck, seems like he has a good attitude. He also has a little room to get a higher ceiling, he just needs to be healthy next year. I would rather give him a couple million than worry about Lamarre or Perez tanking like Soto or Lutz did. Heisey is a real vet at this point and in 2015 he will be playing for a contract.

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  18. #43
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Put me down for a DFA of Hanigan. He made over $2 Million last year and even in a crummy year, guys get raises in arbitration. With Arroyo gone, there is one less guy who wants him as his personal catcher and he's going to be 34 next year. I'd like to see the Reds go big here and go after Salty. Salty for $9 Million versus Hanigan at $3 Million seems like a good way to spend some of the team's payflex. Salty against RHP and lefty killer Mes against LHP. Catcher would be set set and an actual threat every day.

    Heisey is a tougher call, but the Reds need to maximize the war chest to make a run at guys who can really help the team in a bigger role. I'd give his money to whoever ends up being plan A in CF (Hamilton is Plan B at best IMO).

    As far as the 40 man goes, the 6 free agents will be off and Corky Miller will be outrighted. That should leave 36 after the 60 day DL guys are back. DFA Hanigan and Heisey would make it 34. Barnhart and Rogers seem like certain adds. One spot should be left open for Parra who I hope is brought back. That makes it 37. Drew Hayes, Josh Smith and Daniel Renken would seem like the strongest candidates on the list posted earlier. I'm not really a fan of Lamarre at this point, but wouldn't want to lose him. Nick Christiani's spot might be lost. Hayes, Smith and Renken would all be on my keeper list ahead of him. H-Rod doesn't look like a guy who we'd miss either. Greg Reynolds might be a guy that gets cut loose with a prearranged deal for a minor league contract that calls for more than the average minor league deal to make another spot. I'd hope for a couple November deals to thin the ranks a bit. Hopefully they could move guys like Hanigan, Heisey, Soto and the like rather than just losing them.

    Anyone know if Tim Crabbe needs to be protected? He seems like the kind of hard thrower who could take a step forward as a reliever. He seems a little like Sam Lecure prior to his conversion to relief. Seems like he could at least be a cheaper version of Logan Ondrusek. If he needs to be protected, he'd be a must add IMO.
    Wouldn't you rather try to get some value for Hanigan than dump him?

    I like the year Salty had, but it looks like paying a lot for a career year. In some sense he is a bit like Heisey with the bat, lots of k's and lots of power. He is normally .240/.300/.450 from the left side. He is a goner vs lhp, which late in the game doesn't help since pinching for the catcher is rarely done.

  19. #44
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Generally, when a player -- particularly a heavily-used catcher -- reaches a certain point, IMO it's not a good bet that they will become healthy and re-gain productivity after injuries strike.

    But obviously it's for the Reds professionals to make that judgment in the case of Hanigan. His hitting has been in decline, but injuries did impact 2013.

    I just hope the Reds don't bank the 2014 team on batting turnarounds from Phillips, Frazier, Cozart, Mesoraco, Hanigan, Heisey, and Hannahan. I think the chances of all that happening are fairly low.
    I can see that, especially with Hanigan, who has a lot of wear it seems to me. He had trouble staying healthy just catching Chapman, which could factor in. Health is usually expected for the next season, although it gets tough to say. I look at Ramon though, he thrived in Cincinnati in his mid 30s under the right watch and platoon.

  20. #45
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Heisey had an awful start to the year but he ended up being his normal productive blend of power and defense the rest of the way. He also battled injury, of course. His career OPS is .741 which is hard to replace for what he will make. As a piece in a trade, sure use his value for some return. Other cf options include

    McClouth fa
    DeJesus fa
    Crisp -has option
    Other by trade like Fowler.

    The trade route is expensive, or was last year.

    In my view Heisey is a decently rare combo of speed, defense and power, and heck, seems like he has a good attitude. He also has a little room to get a higher ceiling, he just needs to be healthy next year. I would rather give him a couple million than worry about Lamarre or Perez tanking like Soto or Lutz did. Heisey is a real vet at this point and in 2015 he will be playing for a contract.
    Last year Heisey had a 3.7% walk rate and a 20.9% K rate. This was actually a slight improvement over the prior year's 4.5% walk rate and 27.3% K rate. His lifetime OPS means nothing to me because it is all slanted toward his early seasons, before the league knew him. His last two seasons were not good.

    His OBP last season was .279. Lifetime it's .308. In the last three seasons, his high OBP was .315. This is the kind of hitter the Reds need to get away from. RH power hitters who don't get on base.

    As for alternatives, there are dozens of bench players in the majors who play CF. Many can get on base with a reasonable degree of frequency.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-17-2013 at 10:05 AM.


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