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Thread: 40 Man Roster - 2014

  1. #46
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Generally, when a player -- particularly a heavily-used catcher -- reaches a certain point, IMO it's not a good bet that they will become healthy and re-gain productivity after injuries strike.

    But obviously it's for the Reds professionals to make that judgment in the case of Hanigan. His hitting has been in decline, but injuries did impact 2013.

    I just hope the Reds don't bank the 2014 team on batting turnarounds from Phillips, Frazier, Cozart, Mesoraco, Hanigan, Heisey, and Hannahan. I think the chances of all that happening are fairly low.
    There was no decline before 2013. His numbers were steady - good OBP no power at all. Healthy and with a bit better luck (atrocius BABIP with LD% and else being about the same) I'd expect a return to form - not that that is any great shakes. As a true backup used 1/3 of the time or less I'd be on board. However - if the Reds want to lay out the dough to sign Salty I'd be all for that - he and Mes platooned should be pretty productive. And Hanigan's defense is respected enough you could likely land a mid grade prospect for him. Nothing mind boggling but a A+ or AA guy.
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  3. #47
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    So, keep Paul instead of Heisey? Are you counting on resigning Choo? Sure, if Choo is back then save money on Heisey.
    Yep, with a Choo-less OF and Ludwick needing the occasional day off, Heisey (or someone like him) still makes sense on the Reds' bench.

    Paul is a nice bench bat, but is defensively lacking. (Would anyone really want to start Paul in RF if Bruce needed a day off?)

    DRob could take Heisey's place as the backup CF, but then you're looking at an offensive downgrade.

    Heisey is one of those bench players that plays defense pretty darn good and hits better than most defensive specialists. That gives him some value.
    I would not nontender Heisey. Sign him and keep looking for better OF depth.

    Entering 2014 with BHam and DRob as the only guys that can play CF does not seem particularly wise.
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    Old school 1983 (10-17-2013)

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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    There was no decline before 2013. His numbers were steady - good OBP no power at all. Healthy and with a bit better luck (atrocius BABIP with LD% and else being about the same) I'd expect a return to form - not that that is any great shakes. As a true backup used 1/3 of the time or less I'd be on board. However - if the Reds want to lay out the dough to sign Salty I'd be all for that - he and Mes platooned should be pretty productive. And Hanigan's defense is respected enough you could likely land a mid grade prospect for him. Nothing mind boggling but a A+ or AA guy.
    Hanigan's OPS went from .834 in 2010 to .714 to .703 in 2012. His SLG went from .405 to .357 to .338 before last year. After his big year in 2010 he declined and then declined slightly again in 2012.

    His OPS+ in 2012 was 90.

    Add in the injuries, the wear and tear, I wouldn't expect too much.

    I just have this odd notion that if the Reds want to have a deeper lineup of good hitters they need to add some good hitters. If every position is set, well, I guess we'll bank on turnarounds across the board.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-17-2013 at 10:20 AM.

  6. #49
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    With the discussions of Heisey and Hanigan, I'm thinking we're not going to have to deal with those specifically except for what the costs for 2014 will be. My guess is, as we have for several years, we will not actually have an arbitration hearing. And I don't think we're going to need to make space on the 40 man that something needs to be done with either player in that regard. I'm guessing that we'll have room for adding the players we need and still have some room for FA additions.
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Last year Heisey had a 3.7% walk rate and a 20.9% K rate. This was actually a slight improvement over the prior year's 4.5% walk rate and 27.3% K rate. His lifetime OPS means nothing to me because it is all slanted toward his early seasons, before the league knew him. His last two seasons were not good.

    His OBP last season was .279. Lifetime it's .308. In the last three seasons, his high OBP was .315. This is the kind of hitter the Reds need to get away from. RH power hitters who don't get on base.

    As for alternatives, there are dozens of bench players in the majors who play CF. Many can get on base with a reasonable degree of frequency.
    Heisey is a .310 OBP guy. If you want to upgrade that significantly, not just .325 guys or whatever, you must only be seeking DeJesus. If anybody has a CF that gets on base, they are going to be tough to trade for. Not saying it's impossible. A Hamilton/DeJesus platoon might go okay. I would still keep Heisey for his defense and versatility.

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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Heisey is a .310 OBP guy. If you want to upgrade that significantly, not just .325 guys or whatever, you must only be seeking DeJesus. If anybody has a CF that gets on base, they are going to be tough to trade for. Not saying it's impossible. A Hamilton/DeJesus platoon might go okay. I would still keep Heisey for his defense and versatility.
    I'll take a .330 OBP guy or slightly less, with less power, over Heisey's .308 lifetime OBP, which was much less this past season.

    Of outfielders with at least 150 PAs this year (thus including backups) there were 66 with a .330 OBP or higher. That number goes up to 71 if you drop to .329. The number is 79 if you drop to .326 (none were exactly .325).

    I'm sure many of them can share CF, like Choo did, even if listed as corner men.

    It isn't only Dejesus and it's not that rare for a starter or bench player to OBP .330.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-17-2013 at 11:37 AM.

  9. #52
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I'll take a .330 OBP guy or slightly less, with less power, over Heisey's .308 lifetime OBP, which was much less this past season.

    Of outfielders with at least 150 PAs this year (thus including backups) there were 66 with a .330 OBP or higher. That number goes up to 71 if you drop to .329. The number is 79 if you drop to .326 (none were exactly .325).

    I'm sure many of them can share CF, like Choo did, even if listed as corner men.

    It isn't only Dejesus and it's not that rare for a starter or bench player to OBP .330.
    30 teams, 3 outfield spots = 90 outfielders. Or, if you like, 30 teams, 5 outfielders a team = 150 outfield roster spots. My bet is that the 79 or so outfielders that were able to OBP .329 last year are rare enough to hold a lot of value to their teams. In fact, the first 55-70 of them are likely all starters and signed for next year.

    This is a weird roster for next year, for sure.

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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    I really have no interest in Saltalamacchia or McCann or any other catcher that will cost 9+ million and a 1st round draft choice. I'm not up for that at all.

    I have no interest in Ruiz and his PED enhanced stats.

    I fully think the team needs to move on from Hanigan completely if they believe in Mesoraco. They will never know what they have in him if he is on the short end of a platoon, or starting less than 4/5 of the time. Now, if they don't believe in Mesoraco, then they should trade him, and look to sign someone like Navarro or Pierzinski and move on.


    As for the OF next season, I think the locks are Bruce-RF, Ludwick-LF, and Hamilton-on the 25 man roster.(Jocketty's words we're to ease him in to the starting roll) After that I think the other two spots offer the Reds a chance to upgrade and be flexible in the offseason.

    Possibilities like McLouth, De Jesus are obvious, but there will be lesser known or unexpected options to emerge at later times. Maybe names like Denorfia, Bonifacio, Cain, Torres, Nava, Crisp and many others.

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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    I'd like to see how Heisey does under a different hitting coach. It seemed to me that when he came to the majors there was an attempt to have him pull more in order to fit a power profile for LF'er.

    To me, Choo's gone, Hamilton is the CF'er, keep Heisey over Robinson, and look for a veteran bat who has experience on a winning team for LF backup, pinch hitter. If Choo happens to stay, then determine if Hamilton stays with the big club during spring training. Best case, Hamilton stays, Choo moves to LF and Ludwick fills the 4/5 OF position. Improves both the offense and defense - adds flexibility and depth - provides legitimate pinch hitter.

    It also seems to me that we are spending too much time trying to figure out how to get a marginal upgrade to the 4/5 OF spot and save a few $K.
    I'd bet the farm that if WJ were inclined to list his off season priorities, replacing Heisey would not make the top ten.

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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post

    It also seems to me that we are spending too much time trying to figure out how to get a marginal upgrade to the 4/5 OF spot and save a few $K.
    I'd bet the farm that if WJ were inclined to list his off season priorities, replacing Heisey would not make the top ten.
    You're probably right about our expenditure of time. But Heisey could get over $1.5 million next year in arbitration, maybe more, and I think that will be on WJ's screen.

  14. #56
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    I wonder if the Reds could get Grandal back?

    Anyone know what impact ACL surgery has had on catchers?
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    I wonder if the Reds could get Grandal back?

    Anyone know what impact ACL surgery has had on catchers?
    I was wondering what the market for Navarro would be.
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  16. #58
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Brian McCann is only 30???! It feels like he's been around forever.

    Orioles need pitching.....maybe we can send them something for Matt Weiters (who's rumored to be on the trade market this off season).
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    I could trade with the Orioles....I would propose this deal:

    Reds trade: Homer Bailey, Devin Mesoraco, and Logan Ondrusek

    Orioles trade: Matt Wieters and Darren O'Day

    I think it works for both sides, the O's get a #2 pitcher, and a young backstop to replace Wieters, with Ondrusek being added as a salary dump.

    The Reds get an offensive upgrade to their lineup, with Hanigan being the backup, while O'Day helps to shore up middle relief, and the Reds get a little wiggle room to find a #5 starter

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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Wouldn't you rather try to get some value for Hanigan than dump him?

    I like the year Salty had, but it looks like paying a lot for a career year. In some sense he is a bit like Heisey with the bat, lots of k's and lots of power. He is normally .240/.300/.450 from the left side. He is a goner vs lhp, which late in the game doesn't help since pinching for the catcher is rarely done.
    Sure if somebody would trade something for him, but if I couldn't get a deal done before the non-tender deadline, I'd non-tender him. He's not worth $3 Million and I'm guessing he'd get that in the last year of arb and frankly, KC is right, if the Reds are to upgrade the offense, Catcher is one of the places to do it. Even an average to below average bat is a huge upgrade in production. Mes hits lefty pitching well. Need a guy who hits well against RHP to make the tandem make more sense. Salty fits and he and Mes could probably platoon and bat 5th or 6th behind Bruce. I'd expect the position to combine for an OPS of around .775 with 25 HR with those two platooning.

    The Reds need to get what they need and step one is to clear the dead wood and not let roster clutter stand in the way. I've always liked Hanigan, but he's 34 and really has been declining at the plate since 2010 and at his age, with a rising salary and a declining OPS he's bordering on roster clutter at this point. If the Reds had a 135 game per year established starter and needed a glove man to play caddy for cheap, Hanigan would be fine in that role and maybe some team in that boat would want him. The Reds need more. They won't get Johnny Bench, but have to do better than Bill Plummer at this point. I wouldn't let the possibility of getting some AA suspect in return stand in the way.
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