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Thread: 40 Man Roster - 2014

  1. #76
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    It depends on money, player availability, internal team views of own players.

    One approach is to say, well, sign two major guys (maybe Choo plus one) and improve the bench.

    Another approach is to platoon (generally speaking) a few positions. Get good platoon players for CF, 3B, SS, add a Navarro. Strict lefty/righty or otherwise. Or maybe LF, maybe 2B after a trade.

    I really have no opinion on this, there are several ways to approach it. But the objective is to be able to field a deeper lineup of average or above starting hitters every day.

    Not looking for the Big Red Machine, this team is pitching based. But just more solid contributing hitters whether regulars or platoons.
    I like the idea of platooning as a cheap way to fill a position and deepen the bench at the same time. The problem with Navarro in particular is that he's still a question mark. He's been a pretty bad offensive player in his career except for 73 PAs in 2012 and 266 PAs in 2013. His big hitting was against LHP but he was OK against RHP, Mesoraco is a lefty killer too and even when Hanigan was hitting earlier in his career, his big damage is against LHP. I'm just not seeing Navarro as a starter and he isn't a good fit as a platoon mate for one of the Reds current guys. He might be an OK tandem guy as long as his partner can hit against RHP. Salty would cost more, but as the big half of the platoon he'd be more of 400 to 450 PA guy which is close to a workload you'd see for a starting catcher, so I'd have no problem with a 3 year, 30 Million deal for him. He would fit well in a platoon with Mes. He has a 3 year history of strong hitting against RHP (though his OBP has been low until this year). He and Mes would provide a strong power threat in the 6 hole ideally. If Hanigan is moved and the Reds can find some takers for a few of their other guys who are reaching the wrong side of their cost vs. production point, they should be able to get him as well as afford a bat for the OF (though maybe not Choo).
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #77
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I like the idea of platooning as a cheap way to fill a position and deepen the bench at the same time. The problem with Navarro in particular is that he's still a question mark. He's been a pretty bad offensive player in his career except for 73 PAs in 2012 and 266 PAs in 2013. His big hitting was against LHP but he was OK against RHP, Mesoraco is a lefty killer too and even when Hanigan was hitting earlier in his career, his big damage is against LHP. I'm just not seeing Navarro as a starter and he isn't a good fit as a platoon mate for one of the Reds current guys. He might be an OK tandem guy as long as his partner can hit against RHP. Salty would cost more, but as the big half of the platoon he'd be more of 400 to 450 PA guy which is close to a workload you'd see for a starting catcher, so I'd have no problem with a 3 year, 30 Million deal for him. He would fit well in a platoon with Mes. He has a 3 year history of strong hitting against RHP (though his OBP has been low until this year). He and Mes would provide a strong power threat in the 6 hole ideally. If Hanigan is moved and the Reds can find some takers for a few of their other guys who are reaching the wrong side of their cost vs. production point, they should be able to get him as well as afford a bat for the OF (though maybe not Choo).

    He's also Likely to cost a 1st rd draft pick. While I guess you are okay with that, it does need added in to his overall cost.

  4. #78
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by PepperJack View Post
    He's also Likely to cost a 1st rd draft pick. While I guess you are okay with that, it does need added in to his overall cost.
    The Reds need to retool. If it costs a first round pick, so be it.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    The Reds need to retool. If it costs a first round pick, so be it.


    Yeah, we disagree here. I don't think the Reds should be throwing away 1st rd picks on non certain upgrades. As I have said before, if they don't think Mesoraco can be the guy 4/5 of the time then they should trade him, and they can find a catcher or two who can do the job for less money, or without giving up a pick.


    Navarro/Pierzinski could be just one of any combos to look at. Saltalamacchia, IMO, is not worth the Reds first round draft choice.


    This team, with Votto, Bruce, Latos, Cueto, Chapman, and others becoming more expensive, will always need their early draft picks to supplement the established players. Especially in what is supposed to be a deep draft.

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  7. #80
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by PepperJack View Post
    Yeah, we disagree here. I don't think the Reds should be throwing away 1st rd picks on non certain upgrades. As I have said before, if they don't think Mesoraco can be the guy 4/5 of the time then they should trade him, and they can find a catcher or two who can do the job for less money, or without giving up a pick.


    Navarro/Pierzinski could be just one of any combos to look at. Saltalamacchia, IMO, is not worth the Reds first round draft choice.


    This team, with Votto, Bruce, Latos, Cueto, Chapman, and others becoming more expensive, will always need their early draft picks to supplement the established players. Especially in what is supposed to be a deep draft.
    I'd be OK with Pierzynski instead of Salty as Hanigan's replacement and Mes platoon partner. That would save the pick (but it would probably be lost signing somebody else). If they can't get Choo back, they need to target Ellsbury or Granderson IMO.

    This team needs to deal off some higher priced guys to free money to sign what they need. That should allow them to infuse plenty of young cheap talent through what they acquire in those deals. There won't be any signing anybody if they stay status quo. Pierzynski probably won't cost a draft pick, so that would be fine by me, but it isn't a long term solution either.

    For the record, if Salty was on a deal with 3 years and $30 Million remaining, I'd gladly deal Travieso for him.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'd be OK with Pierzynski instead of Salty as Hanigan's replacement and Mes platoon partner. That would save the pick (but it would probably be lost signing somebody else). If they can't get Choo back, they need to target Ellsbury or Granderson IMO.

    This team needs to deal off some higher priced guys to free money to sign what they need. That should allow them to infuse plenty of young cheap talent through what they acquire in those deals. There won't be any signing anybody if they stay status quo. Pierzynski probably won't cost a draft pick, so that would be fine by me, but it isn't a long term solution either.

    For the record, if Salty was on a deal with 3 years and $30 Million remaining, I'd gladly deal Travieso for him.

    I think the Reds are more likely to trade for a bigger name player than to sign an established/ expensive star. If the money is not there for Choo, or he wants too many years, then I would think Walt would be likely to look for next season's version of Choo.

    Players like Crisp, or Rasmus, maybe even Headley could be traded this winter, and seem more like someone Walt could acquire than spending on a big ticket free agent.

  9. #82
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The idea that these catchers, and Frazier, and Cozart, and Phillips will all hit sufficiently next year IMO is a dream. Funny, this post sees the Reds with six locked in positions. I see exactly two. Who knows?
    The thing about replacing Choo is, as good as he was, when you average the OPS+ provided by LF and CF you get 117. Taking the Billy Beane Moneyball approach, the easier way to replace Choo's production is to get two above-average outfielders.

    As for the other six positions, you would have a difficult time convincing me that if you bring that some group of six hitters back that their collective production will decline in 2014 when compared to what they did in 2013. And don't forget, it was a pretty good offense...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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  11. #83
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Because of where this team sits on the age and cost curve, the competition is better positioned with cost and talent and the Reds need to dump off guys whose production doesn't justify their cost and get whatever kids that they can to fill holes in the system in the process. Then use the freed-up cash to get the exact pieces they need to be a power for the next couple of years and to hold the fort until the next wave arrives. That's a tall order I know, but the competition is strong and cosmetic moves won't be enough IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  12. #84
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Bailey for Kinsler, Texas pursues Choo, McCann or another big FA, and begins the Profar era.

    Phillips to willing team for salary relief and a good role player for CF (not Uggla!)

    Trade Hanigan or Heisey for prospect

    Hanigan, Bailey and Phillips gone saves 22+ million, but that's given to Kinsler and...

    Sign Saltalamaccia or Granderson to a 3-4 year deal (or both if they want to bump payroll high enough) to expire around the end of the current window in 2016 and 2017. Meanwhile Stephenson, Winker, Ervin, Barnhart, and Yorman will begin filling in spots.

    Hamilton S
    Kinsler R
    Votto L
    Bruce L
    Ludwick R
    Saltalamaccia or Granderson L
    Frazier R
    Cozart R

    Latos
    Cueto
    Leake
    Cingrani
    Chapman

  13. #85
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    For the record, Navarro attributed his offense this year to working with Joey Votto while he was here and completely overhauling his approach to be like Joey's.

    Seems to have done something.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  14. #86
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post

    Hamilton S
    Kinsler R
    Votto L
    Bruce L
    Ludwick R
    Saltalamaccia or Granderson L
    Frazier R
    Cozart
    Is Granderson now a catcher or would he Reds employ a 4 OF no catcher lineup. With the # of k'd the Reds staff gets I think a catcher would be good.

  15. #87
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Is Granderson now a catcher or would he Reds employ a 4 OF no catcher lineup. With the # of k'd the Reds staff gets I think a catcher would be good.
    These are just details.

  16. #88
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Per Heyman on Twitter

    With Harvey out for year #mets will look for innings-eating starter. Don't expect them to go for garza/santana/ubaldo tho
    Wow, seems like there could be mutual interest in Arroyo to the Mets. Didn't he say that they would be a team he would like to go to?

    They have a protected first rounder so maybe this is an indication to give Bronson the QO?
    2014 Attendance 0-3
    3/31/14, 4/12/14, 8/14/15

    2013 Attendance: 6-0
    4/3/13, 4/16/13, 4/17/13, 8/3/13, 8/21/13, 9/7/13

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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    Per Heyman on Twitter



    Wow, seems like there could be mutual interest in Arroyo to the Mets. Didn't he say that they would be a team he would like to go to?

    They have a protected first rounder so maybe this is an indication to give Bronson the QO?
    The question isn't whether teams will be interested in Arroyo. They will.

    The question is whether after bids are in $14 million for one-year is unattractive. It's a lot of money for one-year after which BA can go FA again.

    I'd be very surprised if the Reds take that risk.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-21-2013 at 01:39 PM.

  18. #90
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: 40 Man Roster - 2014

    mlbtraderumors has its arbitration analysis of the Reds up.


    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/1...nati-reds.html

    Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Reds are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

    Homer Bailey (5.017): $9.3MM
    Mike Leake (4.000): $5.9MM
    Aroldis Chapman (3.034): $4.6MM
    Ryan Hanigan (5.077): $2.3MM
    Chris Heisey (3.157): $1.7MM
    Alfredo Simon (4.142): $1.6MM
    Xavier Paul (3.119): $1MM
    Sam LeCure (3.072): $1MM
    Corky Miller (4.112): $700K
    Bailey posted the best season of his career in 2013, and stayed healthy for the second consecutive year. 28 in May, he's due a large raise for his contract year. Discounts can be rare with a player so close to free agency, and even Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal might not be enough to lock up Bailey at this point. If the Reds don't see Bailey as a potential $100MM pitcher for them, they'll have to decide whether to trade him now, trade him during the season, or just let him walk as a free agent. Brandon Phillips might be the Reds' preferred salary to clear this winter, but Bailey is another option and would bring a much larger return. Replacing his production in the rotation is the hard part.


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